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#1776 Re: Not So Free Chat » A bet - Adrian and Josh - discussion » 2004-11-23 11:15:40

What would you say to a leader who got up on the soap box and said, "we're sending exploration teams to Antartica to pave the way for eventual settlement of the Last Continent, our ultimate objective."?

You might not, but most would say the leader was daft. More so if he claimed it was a way to diffuse tension here and abroad by providing another realm for competing ideas to flourish.

One problem. Antarctica is already "owned" by New Zealand and Australia.

#1777 Re: Not So Free Chat » A bet - Adrian and Josh - discussion » 2004-11-23 11:07:27

A drive to go "out there" can serve as a release valve for the pressures which come from too many ideologies crowded into too small a container. Not the raw numbers of people, per se, but the numbers of conflicting ideologies that have no hope of advancement except by fighting their rivals.

Sending 6 people out to Mars does not seem to help 6 billion fighting over ideology at home. It's an artifical rationale.


= = =

True. (Zubrin's plan needs to be the start, not the end of our strategery.)

Therefore, declare that settlement is the objective.

MarsDirect missions then become like the frogmen who scout the terrain before the Marines hit the beaches in mass numbers. With LSTs and troop transports and Liberty ships filled with cargo stretching to the horizon.

Remember, Lewis & Clark used canoes.

#1778 Re: Not So Free Chat » A bet - Adrian and Josh - discussion » 2004-11-23 11:03:09

Buit if you are correct, then will we EVER be ready to go no matter how much we spend on infastructure and research?

Yes. In about a hundred years we should be ready. Sorry to disappoint you all, but thems the breaks.

You may be right. Therefore, the right set of madmen can go now and accomplish the equivalent of buying IBM in 1957.

The best time to build the first city on Mars is a few decades BEFORE low cost Earth to LEO comes on line. Buy up the good real estate BEFORE the State builds the new off-ramp for the Interstate highway.


If we are not going to become spacefaring then I say shut down the entire program and use NASA's money for something else. This is the precise question William Langeweische raised in his January 1st essay for The Atlantic.

This is where we seperate the believers from the sycophants. Would you support the "cause" even if you knew that you and your children and grandchildren would never see the final outcome- a spacefaring civilization?

Unless you believe the real game is about selling rope; like nuclear fusion thats been "30 years away for the last 50"

100 years from now the world's cultures may well be all mixed up. Those who don't try now may never get the chance.

#1779 Re: Not So Free Chat » A bet - Adrian and Josh - discussion » 2004-11-23 10:57:40

You also seem to be under the impression that VSE is supposed to lead to colonization. It isn't. It isn't about colonization, and it isn't just about the Moon and it isn't just about Mars. It's about all of the solar system. It's about going back and going further.

I predict that the VSE will be increasingly seen as irrelevant. Sir Richard Branson will be asked to light up his billboards so the first CEV lunar landing can find its way.  big_smile

So long as the proponents of the VSE stop selling it as the greatest thing since the invention of light beer, I have no problem with it. I have and continue to support full funding for the VSE.

I also believe that if its supporters knew how little it really does, there would be many fewer supporters. Emperor's New Clothes and all that.

#1780 Re: Not So Free Chat » A bet - Adrian and Josh - discussion » 2004-11-23 10:14:43

Of you all want to colonize the red planet, we have to do it slowly. We have to build up massive infrastructure in near space to enable people to get off this rock and get to Mars. We have to become masters of resource utilization and CLESS systems first, not scientists with theories and assumptions that it will all work out.

How do we pay for this infrastructure if it fails to make any return on investment? Spend trillions on ISS like habitats?

Who will pay for that, any why?

Retired General Mike Worden spoke in Boston and asserted that one major proponent of the "spiral development" concept is now in prison. I have yet to google for details or to verify the exact facts. He also said every military project following the "spiral development" model has had cost overruns with less than expected results.


= = =

Some things are best done slowly. Others are best done fast. Cross the tipping point.

What if the Pilgrims had decided to anchor the Mayflower 300 miles east of Plymouth Rock, you know, to go slowly.

What is there to learn in space?

Radiation kills? Yup, true.

Micro-gravity ruins your bones? Yup, true again.

= = =

Why would anyone want to leave Earth? Seems to me those that do not shouldn't create artificial roadblocks.

Why would anyone leave England for the wilds of Massachusetts?

We have to become masters of resource utilization and CLESS systems first, not scientists with theories and assumptions that it will all work out.

Where is the VSE is there ANY money for CELSS? Or lower cost Earth to LEO lift?

= = =

It rained last night. I listened to the rain fall gently against the window. I felt the water softly falling on my hands and face as I strolled outside and heard the wind and rain rustle the few remaining leaves left in this autumn. There isn't a star in the heavens I would give this up for- yet that is precisely what Mars is. It is loss, it is poverty.

Edit: clark, you have basically said that anyone who seeks to leave this beautiful Earth "must be a madman" (my words) - - okay that may well be a legitimate point I have mixed feelings about. Life on Mars will be cold, nasty, claustrophic, brutal and often fatal.

Buit if you are correct, then will we EVER be ready to go no matter how much we spend on infastructure and research?

If we are not going to become spacefaring then I say shut down the entire program and use NASA's money for something else. This is the precise question William Langeweische raised in his January 1st essay for The Atlantic.

= = =

What's the rush?  Many reasons. Here is one.

A drive to go "out there" can serve as a release valve for the pressures which come from too many ideologies crowded into too small a container. Not the raw numbers of people, per se, but the numbers of conflicting ideologies that have no hope of advancement except by fighting their rivals.

#1781 Re: Not So Free Chat » A bet - Adrian and Josh - discussion » 2004-11-22 20:11:16

I know this isn't my party but I'm a Mars Direct fan and I agree with Bill on virtually every point he's made, Josh too.

:up:

= = =

Come one, clark. This is NewMars.

Folks are waiting to stomp all over you Luna-tics.

Practice on the Moon? Yeah, okay, I guess. But don't forget that old Jewish saying. . .

#1782 Re: Not So Free Chat » A bet - Adrian and Josh - discussion » 2004-11-22 15:35:53

Low cost launchers?

Mass produce Thiokol RSRMs with RL-10 upper stages.

Increase the Thiokol RSRM mass ratio to 92.5/7.5 by using composites and plastics instead of aluminium and cost per pound should fall below $750 per pound.

RL-10s are no more complex than gas turbine helo engines which cost less than $100,000 each, not $3 million.

Separate crew and cargo and send up crew in Kliper or Elon Musk's Falcon V.

Launch costs ARE cheap today if your goal is not to buy as much rope as possible.

= = =

Killer point, IMHO. Will anyone CARE about a go slow return to the Moon? Excetp a tiny handful of space fans?

Did funding for the VSE crack the news cycle anywhere except with Keith Cowing and Jeff Foust?

#1783 Re: Not So Free Chat » A bet - Adrian and Josh - discussion » 2004-11-22 15:32:00

Lets just say Mr. Tumlinson has some interesting points on these topics. So I am now 2/3rds a Zubrin guy and 1/3 a Tumlinson guy. But Zubrin has the enginnering nailed.

CEV is all about selling rope, nothing more and "MoonMars" is one word, not two.

IMHO there is no economic reason to go to the Moon, except maybe practice. And given the presence of CHONs on Mars, living on Mars actually will be easier than on the Moon. Paul Spudis thinks we need maybe 50 years of lunar "practice" before we go to Mars. To that I say, NO!

And it takes less rocket fuel to drop 100 kilos of supplies on Mars than on the Moon. It just takes longer.

Place a chess knight on square e2. e3 seems closer but in reality, g6 is closer to e2 than e3.

#1784 Re: Not So Free Chat » Political Potpourri - ...anything political goes. » 2004-11-22 09:01:23

Okay, the text says ten but the point is clear.

Hey Bill, you're R.C., aren't you supposed to take this literaly?  tongue  big_smile Don't you go Protestant on me.

Literal? Nah.

Saint Augustine (in the year 400 or thereabouts) explained quoite nicely how Genesis should be read as allegory or metaphor. The Bible is foundational, not literal.

You got things backwards, clark. We Catholics aren't going to make the same mistake with Darwin as we did with Galileo.

#1785 Re: Not So Free Chat » Political Potpourri - ...anything political goes. » 2004-11-22 07:32:49

Precisely. Even if there is but ONE moderate Muslim with whom we can talk. . .

Okay, the text says ten but the point is clear.

#1786 Re: Not So Free Chat » Political Potpourri - ...anything political goes. » 2004-11-22 07:13:30

Peace, Shaun.

Are you familiar with this http://trekguide.com/padd/tos66.htm]episode from Star Trek? Its from the original series.

IMHO, bin Laden and al Qaeda are like the evil entity in that episode. They feed and grow on hate. Our occuption forces create bitterness and hate.

To prevail, we must talk to moderate Muslims and if there are no moderate Muslims - - a point I deny! - - bring on the nukes.

#1787 Re: Not So Free Chat » A bet - Adrian and Josh - discussion » 2004-11-21 14:39:40

Is the VSE led by

Sagan-auts;

von Braun-ians; or

O'Neillians?

#1788 Re: Not So Free Chat » A bet - Adrian and Josh - discussion » 2004-11-21 09:50:33

i win.

http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewpr.htm … 3]Congress Fully Funds NASA - $16.2 Billion Funds Shuttle, ISS & Clears Way for Vision to Start

The mad rantings of a one-eyed lunatic... go figure.

It wasn't supposed to be this close. . .

#1789 Re: Not So Free Chat » Political Potpourri - ...anything political goes. » 2004-11-20 15:08:15

*Has Shaun been making claims?  He has recently tried to point out (in a very reasonable manner) Arab media bias.

Isn't that a claim?

*IMO he was simply stating a fact which I myself could see -- even before he commented.  Perhaps it is "a claim", though I suspect your definition of "a claim" here differs from mine.

Perhaps we could both consider taking a rest from political discussion.  It's the weekend, what do you say?  smile 

--Cindy

Sure.

Is Arab media biased? Yup. Is the Pope Catholic?

But FOX is biased also. Is the Arab media "more" biased? Not so sure.

The BIG question we never get around to is how do we reach the "average Jane or Joe" Muslim who does NOT want a bin Laden al Qaeda caliphae and who also does not want to bow down to the United States of America.

= = =

I am done for today.

Peace.

cool

#1790 Re: Not So Free Chat » Race and Culture - A Changing Europe - Opening a mighty can of worms... » 2004-11-20 15:03:52

... every Muslim country be merged into a larger caliphate ruled by clerics. And that this caliphate eventually encompass the entire world.

Thanks, Bill.

I think 90% of the 'insurgents' are relatively young people, 'merely' pissed off because their brother, or sister, or... got killed in the war. And would not really be happy with a caliphate, as envisioned by bin Laden.

Then again... there were some pretty enlightened periods in Islam history, where Jews and Christians actually *liked* to live among them...

If only an enlightened Islamic inspired 'uniter' could stand up, and...

Nah, keep dreaming... Though.. there are places, like Saudi-Arabia, that would be *perfect* to go through a renaissance...

Rxke, I agree with this 100%

I go on to say, al Qaeda wants a caliphate, not the 90% or 95% of "average Joe" Iraqis or Iranians.

Therefore, when we US-ians trample about those countries, bin Laden easily recruits the family members of those we harm.

al Qaeda sets a fire and the US throws gasoline on it.

#1791 Re: Not So Free Chat » Political Potpourri - ...anything political goes. » 2004-11-20 14:28:59

*Has Shaun been making claims?  He has recently tried to point out (in a very reasonable manner) Arab media bias.

Isn't that a claim? 

On the specific point, FMG. Butchery of women. Such practices are more widespread in Islamic nations that are allegedly our allies than those that are allegedly our enemies.

#1792 Re: Not So Free Chat » Race and Culture - A Changing Europe - Opening a mighty can of worms... » 2004-11-20 14:02:11

Someone please define Islamo-fascism?

Does this mean Shariat-run regimes or...

IMHO, Bin Laden is an Islamo-fascist who desires that every Muslim country be merged into a larger caliphate ruled by clerics. And that this caliphate eventually encompass the entire world.

Read bin Laden's speeches, he actually knows a reasonable amount of European history and the rise of the "nation-state" as a unit of political organization.

Some accuse anyone proud to be Islamic of being an Islamo-fascist. I do not.

= = =

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peace_of_Westphalia]Peace of Westphalia:

In the aftermath of the 11 March 2004 Madrid attacks, the terrorist network al-Qaida also declared that "the international system built-up by the West since the Treaty of Westphalia will collapse; and a new international system will rise under the leadership of a mighty Islamic state." [3] (http://www.themedialine.org/news/news_d … ewsID=5420) Also, it is often claimed that globalization is bringing an evolution of the international system past the sovereign Westphalian state.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nation-state]Nation-state and this quote from the first link:

It is often said that the Peace of Westphalia initiated the modern fashion of diplomacy as it marked the beginning of the modern system of nation-states. Subsequent wars were not about issues of religion, but rather revolved around issues of state. This allowed Catholic and Protestant Powers to ally, leading to a number of major realignments.

#1793 Re: Not So Free Chat » Political Potpourri - ...anything political goes. » 2004-11-20 13:56:24

*I don't know that your assertion (in the quote box) is true, Bill. 

And sorry for the delay (not intentional; I've got an unusual amount of distractions in my work day today...and a headache [out too long with the telescope last night, which combined with 50+ hours on the computer this week...]).

--Cindy

Thanks, I have my answer now.

By the way, did you ask Shaun for proof of his claims?

If an Islamic nation is defined as "our enemy" they are responsible for every horrific atrocity committed by any Muslim, anywhere. If they are our "ally" then we must demand high levels of proof before condemning that nation.

'nuff said.

Peace.

smile

#1794 Re: Not So Free Chat » Political Potpourri - ...anything political goes. » 2004-11-20 13:38:27

*First off, I'm not a "Bushie."

Cindy, tell me you agree that the worst Islamic atrocities occur in the nations that are our so-called "allies" and that many fewer Islamic atrocities occur in the nations we invade OR show me where I am wrong and we can talk.

*...after you explain to me why you encourage and endorse "we vs they" as regards our nation, but oppose "we vs they" as concerns the U.S. and the Middle East.

--Cindy

Your answer, please? big_smile

#1795 Re: Not So Free Chat » Race and Culture - A Changing Europe - Opening a mighty can of worms... » 2004-11-20 13:34:05

The only long term solution is to find a common "human" identity that supercedes lesser divisions.

An alien invasion fleet spotted on radar about 40 years away from Earth would be quite helpful, right about now.

The ultimate wag-the-dog scenario. If the US, Russia, China, and EU collaborated on it, there's really not much other people can do about it, and it gives you the best possible excuse to slap around the usual suspects for starting wars (ever notice that, apart from WWII, all the modern wars are set in motion by some pissant little country that has no particular world power? (1)) into some semblance of peace. Let's put Cobra on this idea. big_smile

I Agree!

If Bush would work with Chirac (and Putin) as partners, not as "we command, you follow" I believe we could destroy Islamo-fascism very quickly, indeed.

#1796 Re: Not So Free Chat » Race and Culture - A Changing Europe - Opening a mighty can of worms... » 2004-11-20 13:30:16

The only example of a major power starting up a major war in the past hundred years is World War II.

Of course you can blame that one partly on WWI.

And, what was Japan's excuse?

They feared the United States cutting off Japanese access to petroleum. Pearl Harbor was pre-emptive strike seeking to secure trade routes through Indonesia etc. . .

to guarantee that raw materials could continue to flow to Japan.

= = =

Today, China is a rapidly growing user of petroleum. If the US knocks off Iran, we will be in a position to strangle Chinese access to Persian Gulf oil. Attacking Iran might well provoke a larger war with China!

= = =

Its like a sweater. Can't pull one thread without unraveling the whole thing!

#1797 Re: Not So Free Chat » Race and Culture - A Changing Europe - Opening a mighty can of worms... » 2004-11-20 12:25:53

Islamic immigrants are a threat to Europe because of birth rates. And because they will work for low wages to "infiltrate" into low paying jobs no one else wants.

As was said, factory owners (on the right?) want cheap wages. Some leaders (on the left) refuse to crack down.

Chirac is to be praised for his rule on headscarves.

"They" did it because the only God that "they" worship was MONEY, not France it her Values : yop, bring me 1000 illiterate immigrants and make them working hard in my factories for two cents/hour. That will make mad the regular french worker that want to be paid honorably but I don't care !

Globalization means this phenomenon will only increase.

#1798 Re: Not So Free Chat » Race and Culture - A Changing Europe - Opening a mighty can of worms... » 2004-11-20 12:19:17

The only long term solution is to find a common "human" identity that supercedes lesser divisions.

An alien invasion fleet spotted on radar about 40 years away from Earth would be quite helpful, right about now.

#1799 Re: Martian Politics and Economy » Role of Religion in the Martian frontier » 2004-11-20 12:16:02

Cobra, I'd say we now agree:

Tell me the death penalty is something we need BECAUSE all of us are flawed creatures (all of us, police and judges and legislators included) and I will say, "Well, okay in limited circumstances, the fewer the better, execution may be the lesser evil of the options presented, but its still evil."

#1800 Re: Not So Free Chat » Political Potpourri - ...anything political goes. » 2004-11-20 12:09:58

This is where I stand:

Now let me be clear. We have real enemies in the world. These enemies must be found. They must be pursued and they must be defeated. John Kerry knows this. And just as Lieutenant Kerry did not hesitate to risk his life to protect the men who served with him in Vietnam, President Kerry will not hesitate one moment to use our military might to keep America safe and secure. John Kerry believes in America. And he knows it’s not enough for just some of us to prosper. For alongside our famous individualism, there’s another ingredient in the American saga.

A belief that we are connected as one people. If there’s a child on the south side of Chicago who can’t read, that matters to me, even if it’s not my child. If there’s a senior citizen somewhere who can’t pay for her prescription and has to choose between medicine and the rent, that makes my life poorer, even if it’s not my grandmother. If there’s an Arab American family being rounded up without benefit of an attorney or due process, that threatens my civil liberties. It’s that fundamental belief—I am my brother’s keeper, I am my sisters’ keeper—that makes this country work. It’s what allows us to pursue our individual dreams, yet still come together as a single American family. “E pluribus unum.” Out of many, one.

Yet even as we speak, there are those who are preparing to divide us, the spin masters and negative ad peddlers who embrace the politics of anything goes. Well, I say to them tonight, there’s not a liberal America and a conservative America—there’s the United States of America. There’s not a black America and white America and Latino America and Asian America; there’s the United States of America. The pundits like to slice-and-dice our country into Red States and Blue States; Red States for Republicans, Blue States for Democrats. But I’ve got news for them, too. We worship an awesome God in the Blue States, and we don’t like federal agents poking around our libraries in the Red States. We coach Little League in the Blue States and have gay friends in the Red States. There are patriots who opposed the war in Iraq and patriots who supported it. We are one people, all of us pledging allegiance to the stars and stripes, all of us defending the United States of America.

Barack Obama, August 2004

= = =

On November 2, 2004 this vision for America lost the election.

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