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#1652 Re: Not So Free Chat » O'Keefe Resigns :: Zubrin Should Apply for the Job - Wanted: New NASA Chief » 2004-12-12 14:10:19

Even I don't drink that much Kool-Aid. I'd setttle for Pete Worden.

#1653 Re: Human missions » Has Dr. Zubrin Addressed Mars Direct Objections? - A few questions? » 2004-12-12 14:08:39

The VSE plan was to pass the FY2005 budget with a $900 mil increase over FY2004 to $16.2B, followed by yearly increases only to match inflation.  So it's doubtful we will see another increase this big betwwen now and 2020.

I agree with this. Thus, how can we expect a new clean sheet booster?

Use shuttle derived to

a) finish ISS
b) throw mass to the Moon
c) assemble more robust Mars mission using two launches

Use a lightweight crew taxi to ferry crew to assembled bigger vessels that remain in LEO, perhaps to be re-used.

#1654 Re: Human missions » Has Dr. Zubrin Addressed Mars Direct Objections? - A few questions? » 2004-12-10 14:24:03

The cost for orbital assembly with a total of 200-240MT worth of vehicle instead of a single one in the 120MT range  is pretty obvious, giving you 66-100% more payload mass for the price of docking hardware. In that respect, its a great deal...

I agree and I believe this proves a slightly modified Mars Direct is really rather easy with 2 shuttle B/C per ERV and crew transit hab.

Since only 20% of the total mass lifted to LEO lands on Mars, the crew hab and the ERV can both be launched without the need for on orbit assembly, correct? The "docking hardware" can be positioned smack dab along the axis of thrust so that the engine burn will press the two pieces together rather than pull them apart.

Two shuttle B/Cs (with 5 segment SRBs and perhaps a larger Michoud made tank to push that 77K kg payload closer to 90k kg) and a Kliper class crew transport and there you go with 200 MT, correct?

ERV launches from Pad 39A and the Mars injection engine and fuel from Pad 39B perhaps a week apart. Line them up end to end and go for Mars.

23 months later, the back up ERV launches from Pad 39A and the Mars injection engine and fuel from Pad 39B perhaps a week apart. Line them up end to end and go for Mars on a slower Hohman trajectory. Less fuel.

Another 3 months later, MarsOne launches from Pad 39A and the Mars injection engine and fuel from Pad 39B a week after that with CEV from the Delta pad or Vandenberg or Kouru once MarsOne has docked.

This saves the Ares development cost and save the cost of any new clean sheet HLLV.

= = =

Edit: How much extra room would a Delta IV CEV have to carry up additional clothes, food, and personal gear? Could that add a few MT to the overall mass budget as well as the roughly 1000 pounds of human payload (0.5 MT)?



Edited By BWhite on 1102710912

#1655 Re: Human missions » Has Dr. Zubrin Addressed Mars Direct Objections? - A few questions? » 2004-12-10 09:01:45

Okay, then double the mass of the ERV. Launch via shuttle B/C. No Ares development costs. If there is room for RL-60s and some fuel, well good.

Launch a standardized deep space chemical propulsion module. (Call it the DSCPM - a fancy acronym for a handful of RL-10s or RL-60s attached to tanks filled with LOX & LH2.)

Bolt as many DSCPMS to the ERV (or Mars crew habitat) as needed. Light some candles.

Fuel tankers are the real issue. Do we really want to be slogging fuel to LEO in a Rolls Royce RLV?

#1656 Re: Human missions » Has Dr. Zubrin Addressed Mars Direct Objections? - A few questions? » 2004-12-10 08:47:56

LEO to the Moon and LEO to Mars both require fuel mass of 4x the net payload mass (very roughly calculated) correct? In other words, about 20% ( + / - ) of what reaches LEO can arrive at the Moon or Mars

Thus, it seems to me that the mission critical job is to get useable LOX / LH2 in LEO as cheaply as possible. If mutiple launches can do it cheaper than a single big rocket like Ares, well fine. If not, then go that way.

Its all bean counting, and political resolve to accomplish something.



Edited By BWhite on 1102690098

#1657 Re: Human missions » Has Dr. Zubrin Addressed Mars Direct Objections? - A few questions? » 2004-12-10 08:33:33

Isn't any mass budget issue solved simply by using 2 launches to assemble a large ERV and two launches to assemble a larger Mars vessel? That is the entire Delta IV theory right, multiple launchs and "on orbit" assembly.

Launch the ERV and the crewed Mars vessel in one piece without the fuel needed for Mars and launch fuel tanks as cheaply as possible by purchasing the cheapest road to LEO.

Several "Thiokol SRB plus RL-10/RL-60 upper stage" could carry LOX & LH2 to LEO and mate with the ERV lifted by Ares (or maybe even shuttle C if the ERV were launched without fuel for going to Mars) and just re-use the same RL-10/RL-60 cluster than got you to LEO to push the ERV to Mars.

= = =

Summary for a new ERV architecture:

A much bigger ERV launched via shuttle B/C or Ares with NO engines or fuel for the Mars insertion burn.

Mate with "several" RL-10/RL-60s lifted by lone SRBs (need some clever dual fuel tank system)

Go to Mars.

= = =

PS - - if GCNRevenger is correct on these criticisms then he should also admit that the VSE is all hocus pocus if it intends to use EELV to do anything useful..



Edited By BWhite on 1102689363

#1658 Re: Not So Free Chat » Political Potpourri II - Continued from previous » 2004-12-09 16:12:04

More good questions asked of Rumsfeld:

Q: Yes, sir. I was wanting to know why I cannot enlist as a single parent in the regular Army, but I can enlist in the National Guard and be deployed?

...

Q: Specialist Skarwin (Sp?) HHD 42nd Engineer Brigade. Mr. Secretary [Cheers] my question is with the current mission of the National Guard and Reserves being the same as our active duty counterparts, when are more of our benefits going to line up to the same as theirs, for example, retirement? [Cheers] [Applause]

(Apparently Rummy's answer was: "I can't imagine anyone your age worrying about retirement. Good grief.")

...

Q: Good morning, sir. Staff Sergeant Latazinsky (sp) 1st COSCOM (sp), Fort Bragg, [Cheers] North Carolina. Yes, sir. My husband and myself, we both joined a volunteer Army. Currently, I'm serving under the Stop Loss Program. I would like to know how much longer do you foresee the military using this program?

http://tnr.com/blog/iraqd?pid=2440]Courtesy of Spencer Ackerman

Again, I predict no more Q&A sessions.

= = =

Edit to add:

We got played, stung, conned, bambozzled:

I just read this and I agree:

If I were the Iranian leadership in 2001, there would be 3 things on my wishlist:

Regime change in Afganistan.

Regime change in Iraq.

diminish all political capital the US has with regards to invading a country (Iran) on claims of WMD programs.

Yes, Challabi would leave the pentagon one day and would be in Tehran (at his villa) talking to Iranian agents the next (excluding time zone effects).

The Taliban are (were?) largely Sunni. Iran is Shia.

We (the US) have been whacking nut-job Sunnis left and right. So who wins at that? The Shia. Dang those guys are good at manipulating the US of A.

Iran can now build nukes and we are helpless to stop it!.

Whoa!

Who are the http://www.infoplease.com/spot/taliban.html]Taliban?



Edited By BWhite on 1102640815

#1659 Re: Not So Free Chat » Political Potpourri II - Continued from previous » 2004-12-09 14:24:27

Sunni / Shiite maps courtesy of Juan Cole:

2000:

http://www.juancole.com/graphics/middle … eeast1.jpg

2008:

http://www.juancole.com/graphics/middle … eeast2.jpg

http://www.juancole.com/]Juan Cole's column - -this guy is really smart and stidies hard. University of Michigan professor.

The big long term winner of our adventure in Iraq? Iran.



Edited By BWhite on 1102624365

#1660 Re: Not So Free Chat » Political Potpourri II - Continued from previous » 2004-12-09 13:12:37

Increase the size of the US military.

Great. How? Either we somehow make people want to enlist or we start a draft. If the latter is the answer, it's no better than overusing Guard forces (who at least volunteered for something)

This takes my breath away. Are you saying that public support for the foreign policy of our President is so very shallow that he cannot go on national TV and say:

My fellow Americans, we need 50,000 more regular soldiers, who will be regular Army and Marines, not Guard. I call upon the young people of America to step forward and volunteer. To the National Guard, I know you are over-extended. We miscalculated. But 50,000 new regular soldiers are coming on-line as fast as possible. Hang in there. And qualified Guardsmen who seek transfer to the regular Army will get signing bonuses and promotions.

If this call will not be answered by the American people, why did we write a check without enough money in the bank to cash it?

#1661 Re: Not So Free Chat » Political Potpourri II - Continued from previous » 2004-12-09 12:46:48

So how do you suggest we reduce the use of Guard troops or upgrade their equipment for the job? Several ideas have been thrown out here adn elsewhere, it's completely within our abilities to remedy.

Increase the size of the US military. Make serious consessions to European allies to induce them to commit troops. Admit mistakes and rectify them.

All suggetions that will not be used by Bush. Bill and others hammered this point on and on prior to the election, mistakes cannot be fixed unless they are admitted to.

It didn't have to be publicaly, but I for one see no evidence of any change in how thie war is being led. It's more of the same, and denotes a lack of awareness of the effects of decisions made.

All the solutions we can come come up with may salve our own souls, but it dosen't do a bit of good. It's hopeless, so more good people will die needlesly because some leaders are to busy being politicans instead of being responsible leaders.

Didn't John Kerry advocate two new divisions of regular infantry?

Ever play the board game Axis & Allies? We need more infantry if we are to continue with the Bush plan for fighting terrorism.

#1662 Re: Not So Free Chat » Political Potpourri II - Continued from previous » 2004-12-09 12:40:59

From the article Bill linked:

"It is time for the FCC to re-examine whether some sort of public right of access is required under the Communications Act and the First Amendment."

Not a bad idea in theory. But, who swings the auction gavel?

#1663 Re: Not So Free Chat » Political Potpourri II - Continued from previous » 2004-12-09 12:11:57

The Christian Left http://www.ucc.org/news/u120904.htm]fights back.

Seems that CBS and NBC decided that a United Church of Christ TV commercial (which portrayed rejecting gays as being un-Christlike) was "too controversial" given the White House stance on gay marriage.

= = =

Here is a link to the http://www.stillspeaking.com/intro1.htm]controversial ad - - pretty darn good ad, IMHO.



Edited By BWhite on 1102616650

#1664 Re: Not So Free Chat » Political Potpourri II - Continued from previous » 2004-12-09 11:30:30

Cobra, the regular Army & Marines are doing just fine. It is the National Guard that is getting dumped on.

Joing the Guard is no way to escape this war.

#1665 Re: Not So Free Chat » Political Potpourri II - Continued from previous » 2004-12-09 07:40:57

I cannot find the link, but some retired military guys (very Red State type folk - funny how colors change meaning) posted stuff to a military hardware websute (16 months ago) calling to withdraw the Hummvees and send hundreds of old M113s instead.

Compelling stories about scrounging armor for duece & half ton trucks in Vietnam as well.

There was also a story about using flatbed trucks as "Q-ships" - - inside the canvas cover deploy 4 Marines with heavy weapons and a sandbag and metal armor bunker, on the truck.

When ambushed, strip away the canvas and start firing.

#1666 Re: Human missions » Hubble mistake - Action needed » 2004-12-08 17:35:01

There is a question if we need any space telescope at all you know. A network of fancy spysat-optics ground based telescopes can match or exceed what Hubble can do in the optical range.

I agree that the price of a deorbit mission killing Hubble-II would be a protest-in-Houston grade screw up.

This question is a legitimate question for serious discussion and negotiated resolution.

But to bandy about loose talk of Hubble-II - - with no promise for funding it - - is a smokescreen to avoid discussion.

Like I said above. Put Hubble-II money on the table and I will not complain one bit as Hubble I is incinerated, safely. Or fund ground based scopes that perform as well or better.

The Moon or Hubble? False choice. After orbiter is retired between $5 and $6 billion per year will be made available for VSE.

That is the promise anyways.

Even $2 billion for Hubble-II delays the moon landing by 4 months. Big deal. $4 billion? 8 month delay.

Nuclear/Electric engines might be handy for a sustained Lunar presence though, if you can get away with not having to launch any more TLI stages and just a tank of ion engine fuel every few years, that might save some serious cash.

That said, NTR drive would be really really nice... it isn't really nessearry for the Moon, but it makes a Mars trip much more practical. GCNR engines, as cool as they may be, are definatly next-generation.

I agree with all of this. I am tired of people (clark, O'Keefe) trotting out JIMO as if it would help human spaceflight.

Ion propulsion is for cargo. I love ion drive. But its for cargo.

NERVA is 1960s technology. A genuine nuclear thermal system could be flying by 2012 or 2014 with no problem if we made the commitment.

That's why I say the jury remains out on whether the VSE is real or just smoke and mirrors. No praise given for a budget "hammered" through with inside politics. Let's seem some rockets fly.

Then there will be plenty of time for praise. The mission ain't accomplished until its accomplished. Too much premature celebration going on these days.

#1667 Re: Not So Free Chat » Political Potpourri II - Continued from previous » 2004-12-08 15:14:14

What is interesting are there are numerous reports that the major news outlets are editing out the cheering that followed this grunt's question. Cheering for the question, not the answer.

Prediction. No more non-vetted Q&A sessions.  ???



Edited By BWhite on 1102540497

#1668 Re: Human missions » Hubble mistake - Action needed » 2004-12-08 14:52:25

I gave you nuclear power and Mars, you thankless wife of a fisherman!  tongue  big_smile

You don't care about Hubble any more than I do. Makes for a nice exscuse to vent, I'm sure.  :laugh:

I also bought my son a new red Porsche, about 4 inches long with great detailing. About $12.99.

If the VSE chooses a gold plated CEV we ain't going anywhere no matter what Sean O'Keefe says.

Nuclear ion propulsion (JIMO) is worthless for human travel. Nuclear thermal is the bare minimum and I really like "gas core" even though its not necessary.

#1669 Re: Not So Free Chat » Political Potpourri II - Continued from previous » 2004-12-08 14:46:54

Isn't our restraint dictated by our goals? Using less restraint undermines our objectives.

Therefore, have we deployed the resources needed to achieve our objectives?

#1670 Re: Human missions » Hubble mistake - Action needed » 2004-12-08 14:44:13

Hubble or trips to the Moon? Is this really a debate?

Both. Otherwise I whine and troll.  big_smile

#1671 Re: Not So Free Chat » Political Potpourri II - Continued from previous » 2004-12-08 14:40:32

``Why do we soldiers have to dig through local landfills for pieces of scrap metal and compromised ballistic glass to up-armor our vehicles?'' asked Army Specialist Thomas Wilson, drawing cheers from about 2,000 troops at Cam Buehring, Kuwait, in an exchange broadcast on Cable News Network.

``You have to go to war with the Army you have,'' Rumsfeld replied, adding that about 400 Humvees, the squat military vehicles that have replaced Army jeeps, are being equipped with armor every month. That's as fast as the military can work ``at this moment,'' he said.

#1672 Re: Human missions » Hubble mistake - Action needed » 2004-12-08 14:38:03

Hubble-2 money is the real issue.

Frankly, I agree we need to de-orbit Hubble safely. But to say the need to de-orbit Hubble is "WHY" we cannot afford Hubble 2 is unacceptable, at least without massive whining.

#1673 Re: Human missions » Hubble mistake - Action needed » 2004-12-08 14:24:37

A moderating troll, imagine that.  tongue

Nice dodge, clark. big_smile 

Talking up "Hubble-2" is like what I tell my daughter when she asks for a pony. Ain't gonna happen no matter what gets said. But if Sean O'Keefe genuinely puts Hubble 2 money on the table, I will gleefully join the chorus and sing "Let Hubble Go"

De-orbit money? Frankly, I don't care too much about that either way because it ain't going to hit anything anyway but if spending the de-orbit money means we cannot afford Hubble-2?

Okay, back to whining.  big_smile



Edited By BWhite on 1102537522

#1674 Re: Human missions » Hubble mistake - Action needed » 2004-12-08 14:17:05

Put the money for Hubble-2 on the table (not "stop whining and maybe we can think about it, someday") and I will happily drop the subject and move on.  :;):

And in that case, I prefer Jeff Bell's attitude. Spending $500 million for a robotic de-orbit module is stupid.

Just let it fall. Even Skylab managed not to hurt anyone.  big_smile

#1675 Re: Human missions » Hubble mistake - Action needed » 2004-12-08 11:57:47

A Proton launched FGB-2 (purchased for an agreed price) is placed in close proximity to Hubble. Crew transfer via Soyuz. Space walk as often as needed.

Let a wealthy European offer to fund it in exchange for marketing rights. And follow-on ownership of a space hotel with a great close up view of Hubble.

Hmmm. . .

Sounds like a story in the making.

= = =

Going to need an orbital plane change engine if its Proton, otherwise we need another booster.

Golly gee, use two Protons! Attach 2 Soyuz with 4 crew to FGB-2 at 51 degrees before the plane change occurs. Burn your way to 28 degrees (ouch, ouch, ouch)

Two Protons - - $150 million
1 FGB - - $250 million
2 Soyuz - - $75 million (land 'em in Arizona!)

$500 million to rescue Hubble



Edited By BWhite on 1102529629

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