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This quote is classic Hobbes. Genuine peace comes when a single Leviathan dominates all political life and obtains a monopoly on the use of force:
It won't work that way. All occidental countries are already "democracies" , all are already "free society" and as a result, people of these countries vote.
Here is where the bill stops.
Will be Blair reelected ? what's the impact of the US votes on the EU votes ?
I personnaly think that one of the impact of the Bush policy, which is, in short, to promote war, is to strengthen the far right wings parties of all the european countries, including Russia. When the drums of war beat everywhere, people get scared, they start to listen more to the strong guys that could protect them, not the reasonable moderates with big brains but small muscles.
Reading Thucydides is more important than ever. Especially if we start to see the Bush-ies attempt to support the right-wing parties across Europe. And US Democrats seeking to ally with the EU left-leaning folk.
Clash of civilizations overlaid with a raging cultural/political civil war throughout the West. It creates a mind-bending level of complexity. :;): (Oh where, oh where are the good 'ole Cold War days? US = good & Soviet = evil)
There was a time Athens considered itself the only power that mattered. Alas, had the Athenians been truly wise and not blinded by an arrogant presumption that their power was limitless (hubris) much suffering and waste could have been avoided.
Now, to preempt Cobra's anticipated criticism.
Yes, Cobra, I agree that history does not repeat itself in any strict or mechanistic fashion. However, learning the lessons of Thucydides remains marvelous instruction on human nature.
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Balance of power is good, correct?
"American want Democrats to stand up to Bush," the Wall Street Journal's Washington Wire reports. "Fully 60%, including one-fourth of Republicans, say Democrats in Congress should make sure Bush and his party 'don't go too far.' Just 34% want Democrats to 'work in a bipartisan way' to help pass the president's priorities."
Just doin' my job, ma'am! Just doin' my job.
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http://observer.guardian.co.uk/comment/ … .html]Bush in Europe
This quote is classic Hobbes. Genuine peace comes when a single Leviathan dominates all political life and obtains a monopoly on the use of force:
This claim rests on the argument that an international system in which there is more than one major power is no longer acceptable. Two years ago, Condoleezza Rice told the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London that 'multi-polarity' in the past had been 'a necessary evil that sustained the absence of war but did not promote the triumph of peace'. As a theory of political society, she said, it stands for rivalry and competition. 'We have tried this before. It led to the Great War ... '
This obviously is untrue. The simultaneous existence of major as well as minor powers was the political reality throughout modern history, despite efforts to overturn it, most recently by Hitler and Stalin.
A traditional diplomacy of 'balance of power', meant to keep the peace, failed in 1914, and in 1938 the existing balance of power was deliberately destroyed by a hegemony-seeking Germany - in part made possible by an isolationist United States's refusal to intervene in Europe's affairs.
Speaking in Paris last week, the Secretary of State asked, 'why should we seek to divide our capacities for good, when they can be much more effective united? Only the enemies of freedom would cheer this division.' The alternative she proposes is an American-led international system that replaces Nato's principle of equality and collegiality with hierarchy.
America leads and the world follows.
Bush leads and America follows.
Anyone who disagrees (or even refuses to follow) is an enemy of freedom and "an evildoer" - - see how easy it all is?
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By the way, how many parents say they want their to children to "cooperate" when they actually mean "obey" - - maybe this is all about parenting style and GWB wants to play "Promisekeeper" for the entire world. :;):
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And this:
This American role is avowedly benevolent, and in the eyes of many Americans, certainly including President Bush, it is of divine origin (Woodrow Wilson also believed this). Within the present administration, there are those who believe cosmic forces are in play and responsible for America's emergence as the sole superpower. The American belief in a divine commission goes back to its religious origins in the 17th century, and is not open to logical refutation. Even secular interpretations of American destiny assert a moral claim, expressed thus in the 19th century: 'The United States has achieved the highest possible form of political system and that this great system can be extended to the rest of humanity ... Because America is exceptionally good, it both deserves to be exceptionally powerful and by nature cannot use its power for evil ends.'
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It's a pretty good "why" IMHO - - but unless we all start talking like this and stop shuffling "why" under the rug - - sustainability will be a perpetual problem.
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A year ago, I raised these same questions and clark said, slow down, wait for the Aldridge Commission report.
Okay.
So when do we ask the "why" question? 2020?
Why? Your answer, colonization.
Never mind that such an answer is viewed as adolescent fantasy by most of the public, but it will simply bog the whole endeavour down in one particular belief.
VSE is not about Mars, or Moon, or Jupiter, or Asteroid X. VSE is not about colonization, nor should it be.
Let me put it this way: whats the point of fundamental or theoretical research? It dosen't neccessarily lead to anything practical. Why straight jacket VSE when it is a fundamental research program?
Don't be upset because it isn't exactly what you want, be happy it leads to what you want. :;):
The VSE is NOT funding any fundamental research whatsoever.
Everything we intend to deploy between now and 2020 could be purchased from the Russians for substantially less than we propose to pay Lockmart or Boeing.
Okay, there may be good national security reasons not to do that. Then that makes the VSE all about catching up with Russian capabilities while starving the Russians of cash.
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I think it's often the case that the Soviet Union's contribution to the defeat of Hitler is overlooked or at least grossly underestimated. 3 million German troops invaded Russia in 1941 and drove hard and fast into the heart of the Soviet Motherland. By the time of the D-Day landing in June 1944, the Red Army and Soviet industry had recovered from this almost unimaginable mauling at the hands of the cream of the Third Reich's military forces, including the notoriously effective Waffen-SS Divisions.
I for one don't underestimate the Soviet contribution, but neither do I consider it a positive contribution in the sense of improving the overall situation. Tyranny is tyranny, Soviets vs. Nazis, either way bad guys win. From my perspective it washes out.
I agree with Cobra to the extent that Stalin's evil and Hitler's evil are so extreme any attempt to compare becomes nonsensical. There also are rumors that Stalin was murdered in the 1950s by close aides because he was on the verge of launching a Jewish extermination campaign that was very Hitler-like.
Sure, it would have been "better" if Patton could have driven his Sherman tanks all the way to Kiev. Yet, was that feasible?
Read about Operation Bagration launched by the Soviets in June 1944. (Wikipedia has a great article) Normandy was largely a pinprick in comparison. Would I prefer that the Brits under Montgomery had liberated Warsaw? Of course. We lacked the power to do that.
Was Yalta a bad deal for the United States? Perhaps.
But by analogy, my current fears for US foreign policy are very much related to my historical belief that if WW2 had morphed into "Red Star vs White Star" or "Patton vs Zhukov" on the plains of central Germany, we may very well have lost with or without a handful of A-bombs.
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The popularity of http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2005/ … pg]posters such as these with rabid Freepers is a large part of why I fear George W. Bush.
He is going to get us (already getting us?) into fights we cannot win. ???
Just a couple of brief comments.
I tend to take the "Stalingrad was wonderful" thing at face value. As everyone knows, Stalingrad was the high-tide mark and turning-point for Nazi Germany. After Stalingrad - at which the entire German 6th Army was obliterated, the first-ever capture of a German Field Marshal occurred, and 250,000 of Germany's finest troops were killed or captured - it was an almost uninterrupted retreat to Berlin for German forces.
Although it was a horrible bloodbath that dragged on for months, Stalingrad's conclusion, in January 1943, marked the beginning of the end for Hitler - ample cause for celebration among anti-Nazis everywhere.I thought I saw a comment from someone (was it CC?) to the effect that America beat Nazi Germany, then handed the country back to the Germans.
I think it's often the case that the Soviet Union's contribution to the defeat of Hitler is overlooked or at least grossly underestimated. 3 million German troops invaded Russia in 1941 and drove hard and fast into the heart of the Soviet Motherland. By the time of the D-Day landing in June 1944, the Red Army and Soviet industry had recovered from this almost unimaginable mauling at the hands of the cream of the Third Reich's military forces, including the notoriously effective Waffen-SS Divisions.
Even if D-Day had failed, it's extremely unlikely that the release of some 50 German Divisions, stationed in France, to fight on the Eastern Front, would have done any more than delay the inevitable march of Soviet troops into Berlin.
In fact, it could be construed that the landing of Allied troops at Normandy was as much to prevent Stalin taking over all of Western Europe as it was to establish a second front against Germany.
For the record, I agree with Shaun on these points.
But then it begs the question - if you know all this, what leads you to the conclusion terrestrial life is only 1 billion years old?
I did not mean to suggest this.
A Marsian Gaia would have gone extinct (but for scattered survivors like deep underground bacteria) at least one billion years ago, perhaps more.
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Thinking about it more I now concede I cannot offer an opinion on whether Mars life crossed over to Earth; Earth life crossed over to Mars (asteroid hitchhiking) or there was perhaps independent genesis - - if there actually is any Mars life whatsoever.
Once again, only by going can we answer these questions.
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Tonight, MSNBC had an article which appears to suggest that any report that NASA believes the methane signatures area strong evidence of life are inaccurate, perhaps even false as NASA denies they are persuaded by the current evidence.
However, the article suggested that the individual NASA employed scientists - - in their personal opinion - - stand by the original report.
Bill:-
But my instincts remain that =IF= living microbes exist today on Mars they are the resilient survivors of a once flourishing planet engulfing biosphere, which perhaps flourished and 99.99% died off before life arrived on Earth. A billion years ago.
Forgive me if I seem obtuse but I'm uncertain how to interpret your meaning here, Bill.
You appear to be saying that the hypothetically flourishing Martian biota we're speculating about could have largely died out maybe a billion years ago, possibly leaving isolated bacterial remnants underground. And it looks like you're placing the 'arrival' of life on Earth at some time close to, but perhaps slightly after, that event.Am I on the right track or have I got it all wrong?
More or less. . .
I believe that both the diversity and abundance of life is the "natural" state if sufficient resources exist.
My intuition is that any living microbes on Mars are (a) survivors of a once thriving and abundant Marsian Gaia or (b) descendants of some poor hapless Terran microbes sent for a ride on an asteroid.
(a) more likely than (b)
=IF= a thriving Marsian Gaia existed "before" life on Earth then we need to take more seriously the idea that Terran life was seeded from Mars although a "second Genesis" would actually be far more interesting from a philosophic point of view.
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This http://www1.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/2005/f … .html]NASA press release calls claims of Mars life "false" - - to a llawyer, the assertion that a claim is "false" implies willful deceit, not merely a mistake or difference of opinion. I cannot tell whether that is what NASA means to say.
Looks like http://www.spaext.com/]Michael Huang has purchased a fair number of google ads leading to this web site.
It's a pretty good "why" IMHO - - but unless we all start talking like this and stop shuffling "why" under the rug - - sustainability will be a perpetual problem.
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A year ago, I raised these same questions and clark said, slow down, wait for the Aldridge Commission report.
Okay.
So when do we ask the "why" question? 2020?
Building an RLV or a fully reuseable Lunar lander doesn't make much sense until you have a Lunar base to fly in & out of, and setting up one would be better handled by large expendable rockets.
I agree.
Dump supplies and robotic regolith processors on Luna with big dumb expendables. Service the robotics with crew that shuttles between L1 and the lunar surface.
As for "re-useables" start with the easiest leg of the journey - - Moon to L1. A re-useable Moon to L1 spacecraft would be far far easier to build than an RLV for travel from Florida to LEO and back. This guy need never return to LEO and therefore does not need aerocapture heat shields or parachutes or anything like that.
If we mine lunar oxygen (which is supposed to be pretty easy) methane and/or LH2 is all that needs to be shipped to L1 from Earth. That is a significant savings right there.
Also, the mass of the lander travels between LEO and L1 only once as crew transfer between L1 and Earth happens with CEV or private vendors.
IIRC, a purely lunar orbit is inherently unstable for a permanent station - - that is why L1 may be the right place.
No Russian stuff? Okay. Buy Bigelow and launch with EELV+ to L1. Build our own lunar lander.
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But, why are we going to the Moon at all? Ignore romantic vague puffery and answer "why" in a cogent manner.
Then and only then should we discuss how.
Exploration: To boldly go where no man has gone before... oh never mind.
Exploration, to push beyond our current limits and understandings. Doing things we have never done before.
VSE seems to encompass that pretty well.
clark, you of all people should understand that words cannot be trusted. ???
If "exploration" means some uniformed US officers collect moon rocks in the mid 2020s and come home, I'd say spend the money on midnight basketball programs and robotic exploration.
Unless we go to stay, there ain't no reason to send humans at all.
And if we insist on using EELV and refuse to buy Russian and spend nothing for RLV R&D we cannot afford to go to stay.
You are still missing the point Bill, that we don't need any Lunar space station to begin with; if you want to transfer a crew between a lander and another ship, why not simply dock them together? Besides, you would need to use the accursed tiny Soyuz hatches that have been so much trouble. Nor is the FGB-2 well suited to do anything except hold people, as it is not a fuel depot nor is designed to become one. Russia also has no maneuverable TLI stage appropriate to push it to L1.
Oh, and we aren't under and circumstance going to send a billion dollars Russia's way for any space hardware of any kind I don't think.
"Need" is one of those words that requires us to identify objectives.
What is the objective of the VSE? Exploration, right.
Define exploration. No one in the Administration has defined that word. That is why we cannot say what we "need" and "do not need"
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If we "need" honest-to-God RLVs to develop space then the VSE is essentially smoke and mirrors because there is NO funding for RLV R&D in the pipeline.
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http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/02/18/ … 9.html]New article
Jon Stewart rocks, btw. The most honest news show in America is being shown on Comedy Central.
Riddle me that, Batman!
FGB-2?
I betcha the Russians would sell it for 400 or 500 million in hard currency. Especially if we bought a Proton to lift it and another Proton (or 2?) to dock and propel it to L1.
Less than 1 billion and FGB-2 is at L-1.
Add a Bigelow inflatable and some solar panels and a docking ring.
Then do your crew transfer with Soyuz/Shenzou, Kliper or CEV.
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If the first return is 2020 and its all expendables for a while thereafter NOTHING INTERESTING WILL HAPPEN until the middle of the 2030s.
Why should any of us care, except in the most hypothetical or academic manner?
Rumsfeld said it best: "We need to use the rockets (army) we have not the rockets (army) we wish we had."
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I have long doubted the prospects for extant life on Mars. Its just my gut feeling - - that said, I would be happy beyond belief to be proven wrong. :;):
Cobra makes a good point and he may be correct.
But my instincts remain that =IF= living microbes exist today on Mars they are the resilient survivors of a once flourishing planet engulfing biosphere, which perhaps flourished and 99.99% died off before life arrived on Earth. A billion years ago.
(Edit: Terran life transported to Mars by asteroids is plausible, except the alkaline surface would make getting those little beasties down into the water-laden caverns that much more difficult.)
Ponder that for a few moments. A billion years ago.
Then =IF= that is true, a Marsian origin for Terran life becomes a far more reasonable theory, again IMHO.
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I won't be in the least bit surprised if Europe's development follows a course other than the peaceful united economic powerhouse EU that's been hyped over the years.
I agree.
--Cindy
And I also agree (at least as to potential developments) which is why Euro-bashing by US media is counterproductive, or "not useful" to use a term I sometimes hear today.
Galileo is NOT a purely commercial space asset.
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If we use Dennis Wingo's architecture - - a staging base at L1 and a reuseable lunar lander - - then lunar LOX combined with methane or LH2 shipped to L1 would be a marvelous way to set up shuttle service to the lunar surface. Assemble Gateway with the spare FGB-2, a Bigelow inflatable, docking ports and solar panels. (I am sure someone proposed this before Wingo, but that is where I saw this most recently.)
Fly crew via CEV or Kliper or Shenzou/Soyuz to L1 Gateway Station and then shuttle crew back and forth from gateway to the lunar surface in a reuseable lunar lander.
=IF= recoverable lunar water is discovered =THEN= great!
Otherwise, fly LH2 or methane to L1 from Earth and obtain LOX from lunar regolith. (Edit: ion drive would be useful to spiral out tanks of methane or LH2 to L1)
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Form follows function. Or you can reverse engineer and determine true intentions by the capabilities that are actually developed.
A commitment to finish ISS combined with a CEV design that does not allow efficient access to the Moon reveals the original true intentions of the VSE.
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http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mp … 44681]This article reminds me of comments I posted at NewMars after President Bush first announced the VSE as well as comments made by some people on the Aldridge Commission.
When VSE funding is assured by Tom Delay dropping the hammer in the back room, how do we survive transitions in administrations?
"Congress has never endorsed, in fact has never discussed, the vision," House Science Committee Chairman Sherwood Boehlert, R-N.Y., said in reference to President Bush's January 2004 declaration that the United States would return humans to the moon in the next 10 to 15 years and ultimately launch manned flights to Mars and beyond.
Boehlert said he "stood and applauded" when the president made that speech, but that he was concerned that NASA was trying to do too much at once and not answering some basic questions about the future of the Hubble, the International Space Station, and the space shuttle.
"Congress has never endorsed, in fact has never discussed, the vision. . ."
Not the best way to build a sustainable program.
And who approved giving a White House press pass for this "pig" and "pervert" - - okay thats two questions.
Press passes are actually pretty easy to get a hold of - you merely need to be a writer for a regularly published whatever (newspaper, magazine, TV show...).
Yeah, that's why they told NY Times reporter Maureen Dowd she would need to wait "months" for the background checks.
Yet the big question stands. How did Gannon get his hands on a classified memo? That is not supposed to be easy, is it?
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6210240/]MSNBC on Gannon
Current White House Press Secretary Scott McClellan has insisted that Guckert was entitled to a so-called "day pass" just as any other 'regularly published' reporter was, and that he did not decide who merited passes and who didn't. But today, a New York Times columnist said that her press credentials were revoked in 2001 after 15 years. Maureen Dowd writes: "I was rejected for a White House press pass at the start of the Bush administration, but someone with an alias, a tax evasion problem and Internet pictures where he posed like the 'Barberini Faun' is credentialed... At first when I tried to complain about not getting my pass renewed... no one called me back. Finally, when Mr. McClellan replaced Ari Fleischer, he said he'd renew the pass — after a new Secret Service background check that would last several months."
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Water on Mars - - albeit http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/m … 217.html]a billion years ago
http://www.cnsnews.com//ViewCommentary. … nservative spin:
Remember, this quote is from a conservative pundit:
Make no mistake, Jeff Gannon, or James Guckert, or whatever his name is, is no conservative. Anybody who publishes sexually explicit photos of himself on a website in hopes of making money as a hooker is no conservative. Not in this lifetime. Not on this planet. The person in those photos is a pig and a pervert.
My question is "Who gave Gannon/Guckert a classified memo on the Valerie Plame controversy?" This guy had access to material that was a felony to disclose and no one on the Right seems to care. :;):
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And who approved giving a White House press pass for this "pig" and "pervert" - - okay thats two questions.
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Heck, this stuff is FUN!
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At any rate, we'll have to see how it turns out. While I don't expect a return of Nazism I won't be in the least bit surprised if Europe's development follows a course other than the peaceful united economic powerhouse EU that's been hyped over the years.
I am uncomfortable with a hypothetical new axis of power running from Paris through Berlin to include Moscow even if I admire the European stance on capital punishment.
The US has the world's largest military, spending more on defense that every other nation, combined. It is in our interest not to rub people's noses in that too overtly.
I don't believe it is in our interest to encourage the European public to believe that acquiring military power is a good, or necessary idea, for the reasons Cobra Commander cites.
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On a related note:
http://europa.eu.int/rapid/pressRelease … uage=en]EU Space policy
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After all, DNA ain't nothing but a clunky form of computer code.
LOL!
Life as "clunky" computer code? Considering... well, us, I'm inclined to believe you underestimate the situation.
Or perhaps I am overestimating it, considering... well, us.
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Ah, but "we" are more than DNA.
And emergence means the whole can exceed the sum of the parts without the need for supernatural sleight of hand.
To refine and clarify my skepticism of the "Gaia-state" idea, I draw a distinction between unicellular and multicellular life. We almost certainly won't find a planet that's barren and lifeless except for a 500 square kilometer patch of jungle filled with everything from slugs to giant monkeys, but isolated groups of indigenous or transplanted microbes seems entirely possible. For all we know life started on Mars in an underground pool of sludge water and was never able to expand beyond it. It wouldn't progress much to more complex forms, but it could survive as long as the basic nutrients it relies on are present.
The computer simulation you mention, as well as previous similar experiments, does not account for the leap from simple to complex lifeforms and even then a form of life may be using all available resources while still being confined to a limited area on a planet by the absence of those resources elsewhere or the difficulty in reaching them.
But again, I agree with the basic premise as it applies to multicellular life. Different rules for bacteria and elephants.
Fair enough.
But either way, the only really sensible course of action is to go there and drill, drill, drill. . .
As I have said before, a Gaia-state seems to me to be the natural result of ANY life that evolves. Using the power of exponential reproduction, life WILL engulf its environment and diversify.
Maybe. Or life started and never quite got beyond the microbe stage. Or perhaps there are Martian microbes but they're Terran transplants that adpated.
I'd certainly like to see fossils of Martian dinosaurs turn up and a lake of Martian oil could have some applications, but I'm far from convinced that this Gaia-state model has any connection to reality. At present we have only one data point, any conclusion is purely speculative.
Michigan State University (IIRC) is running a massive simulation of evolution on some really, really big computers.
After all, DNA ain't nothing but a clunky form of computer code. Thus its all math, not biological observation.
Anyway, considerable investigation has been done into alternate scenarios based on looking at evolution as a branch of information theory and rather universally the "life forms" engulf all available resources and produce astounding diversity.
Again, IIRC, the folks running these sims have freely altered the initial conditions. Thus we have only one observational data set, there are countless hypothetical data sets all of which support the "life explosion" idea - - if resources are present.
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http://williamcalvin.com/1990s/1997JMem … ]Evolution as algorithm - - its all just computer code.
1. There must be a pattern involved.
2. The pattern must be copied somehow (indeed, that which is copied may serve to define the pattern). [Together, 1 and 2 are the minimum replicable unit -- so, in a sense, we could reduce six essentials to five. But I'm splitting rather than lumping here because so many "sparse Darwinian" processes exhibit a pattern without replication.]
3. Variant patterns must sometimes be produced by chance -- though it need not be purely random, as another process could well bias the directionality of the small sidesteps that result. Superpositions and recombinations will also suffice.
4. The pattern and its variant must compete with one another for occupation of a limited work space. For example, bluegrass and crab grass compete for back yards. Limited means the workspace forces choices, unlike a wide-open niche with enough resources for all to survive. Observe that we're now talking about populations of a pattern, not one at a time.
5. The competition is biased by a multifaceted environment: for example, how often the grass is watered, cut, fertilized, and frozen, giving one pattern more of the lawn than another. That's Darwin's natural selection.
6. New variants always preferentially occur around the more successful of the current patterns. In biology, there is a skewed survival to reproductive maturity (environmental selection is mostly juvenile mortality) or a skewed distribution of those adults who successfully mate (sexual selection). This is what Darwin later called an inheritance principle. Variations are not just random jumps from some standard starting position; rather, they are usually little sidesteps from a pretty-good solution (most variants are worse than a parent, but a few may be even better, and become the preferred source of further variants).
Life is very much like Vonnegut's "ice-nine" - - once it gets going it will assimiliate its environment.
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And you can barbecue giant sandworms.
Actually, a Mars-worm BBQ steak would most certainly pass right through, as it were.
As for eating non-DNA based lifeforms? Why bother? What are the odds any nutritious amino acids or proteins might be found?
= = =
More seriously, this has potential to be very significant.
As I have said before, a Gaia-state seems to me to be the natural result of ANY life that evolves. Using the power of exponential reproduction, life WILL engulf its environment and diversify.
IF there are only a few microbes left over, THEN I would predict an astonishing rich selection of fossils from the Gaia-state that once existed on Mars. And if life was sufficiently abundant, buried hydrocarbons are actually quite likely.