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#1226 Re: Not So Free Chat » Political Potpourri III - The next round. » 2005-03-15 11:28:44

I do not believe Chirac does prefer Hussein over Bush - - your question assumes an either/or choice that does not exist, except as a propaganda device. (Chirac is too ammoral for that, anyways)

Saying "you are either with us or against us" is a usually a lie designed to intimidate.

= = =

PS - - Chirac is a weasel, IMHO. But so what?

= = =

The GOP tried the same strategy with social security. Support the Bush plan to privatize social security, otherwise you weaken the President which empowers bin Laden. To disagree about social security makes you a friend of the terrorists.

Iraq was never about Iraq but about destroying the UN, which has been accomplished. Mission Accomplished was true after all.

  :;):



Edited By BWhite on 1110908086

#1227 Re: Not So Free Chat » Tales of the future past - How today should have looked like » 2005-03-15 11:24:31

http://davidszondy.com/contest.htm]Does it say contest?

1500 words is flash fiction, something I have been thinking about lately. Maybe I need to offer a small prize for the best NewMarsian story entered in this contest. The picture looks like Mars, no?

George C. Scott as Space Admiral Patton zapping those nasty bug-things?

#1228 Re: Not So Free Chat » Political Potpourri III - The next round. » 2005-03-15 11:12:27

P.S.:  Bill, why does Chirac favor Hussein over Bush?  Any insights?

It is NOT "either/or" - - to insist that nuanced question be answered yes or no is one sign of a bully.

Bush or Hussein? My preference is neither.  :;):

= = =

Chirac too. We should lose him also.

But if its musical chairs I say lose them all, and don't let Bush sneak in as last man standing.



Edited By BWhite on 1110906919

#1229 Re: Human missions » Griffin nominated for NASA post - SpaceRef link to testimony » 2005-03-15 11:05:39

Say that Boeing were to build Delta-IV HLV tripple-barrel with all the goodies, and it could lift 45MT. NASA orders no less then, say, 11 per year, and Boeing gives them a modest discount of 10% from the $200M pricetag... That would come out to be about $1800/lb.

If the numbers hold, it may be the best deal. . .

Now, how do we lower that number going forward?

Can Boeing deliver 45MT for $180 million?

You assume 495 MT annually? 33 barrels for this purpose only?

= = =

If it is really 35MT @ $240 million each based on 33 barrels then an SDV tanker might well beat those numbers.

So its all bean counting, isn't it?



Edited By BWhite on 1110906595

#1230 Re: Not So Free Chat » Political Potpourri III - The next round. » 2005-03-15 09:29:02

Those who possess greater power have a greater responsibility to act with prudence and due care.

If a bunch of powerless yahoos march in the street and act like bozos it is only to be expected, and ignored.

When the world's only superpower acts like a crazed 12 year old waving a loaded 45 pistol, that warrants a wee bit more attention. 

tongue

#1232 Re: Human missions » Griffin nominated for NASA post - SpaceRef link to testimony » 2005-03-14 21:15:30

Heh! That last post is even starting to persuade me!  :;):

#1233 Re: Human missions » Griffin nominated for NASA post - SpaceRef link to testimony » 2005-03-14 21:08:33

I doubt that any American-made rocket of any real size will beat ~$1,500/lb... if you want a lower price, then you build Shuttle-II.

It takes a certain amount of man-hours with practical methods to build a rocket of sufficent size to hold a sufficent amount of rocket fuel that delivers an unchanging amount of energy per pound, and since labor costs will rise with inflation, then the cost of a rocket of a given size and capacity will not change much without a radical improvement in technology.

The only way out of this mess is to stop throwing the rocket away.

Sadly, I may agree with you more than you might know.

Therefore, we need to find more money for the VSE since my real point - - [underneath everything else] - - is that the proposed budgets aren't really large enough to do what most of us really want to do. To a large extent the VSE is about pretending to have a space program that actually does something meaningful.

Remember my bias - - if we don't stay or begin to exploit resources, why bother with $16-20 billion per year for human spaceflight, especially if we need to slash science to fund it?

Even Michael Griffin had been saying he wants $5 billion more per year. Read his older testimony from the last 2 - 3 years.

Political realiity is that the taxpayers won't fund much more through the federal budget. So where do we find more money? If the mountain won't come to us, what mountain might we travel to?  :;):

#1234 Re: Human missions » Griffin nominated for NASA post - SpaceRef link to testimony » 2005-03-14 19:58:10

Say that Boeing were to build Delta-IV HLV tripple-barrel with all the goodies, and it could lift 45MT. NASA orders no less then, say, 11 per year, and Boeing gives them a modest discount of 10% from the $200M pricetag... That would come out to be about $1800/lb.

If the numbers hold, it may be the best deal. . .

Now, how do we lower that number going forward?

#1235 Re: Human missions » Griffin nominated for NASA post - SpaceRef link to testimony » 2005-03-14 19:51:03

To carry CEV and our astronauts?

An American launcher. No argument. :;):

But to carry 5,000 kg tanks of methane or LH2 or LOX to help propel CEV to the Moon? Buy Dneper or Zenit or a 5 segment SRB. And when no one is looking, rendevouz and mate that fuel tank to your CEV.

Whatever is cheapest per pound to LEO. Remember, for every ton of net lunar payload we need four tons of fuel.

= = =

If the goal is prestige, HLLV will be far, far better because we can easily build and launch BIG rockets while the Russians cannot re-constitute Energia any time soon. And Energia is relatively puny in any event.

Mate four 5 segment SRBs to a stretched ET with RS-68s and a cryogenic upper stage, and the Florida launch watchers will see a far more impressive show that any puny Delta IV will ever give. 

big_smile

= = =

If its about being economical, buy Russian/Ukrainian.

If its about showmanship buy BIG shuttle derived. Made in America!

If we are not going to stay, to colonize or mine lunar resources, then why are we going?

Form follows function. What rocket the VSE uses should require us to first define WHY we even have a VSE.

#1236 Re: Not So Free Chat » Great" paperwork" story - Can anyone confirm whether its true? » 2005-03-14 17:50:26

From a space.com thread:

"...Why does NASA need to care about paperwork?..."

Going back to the SR-71 project. Lockheed (Skunk Works,) had hit the unsolvable problem. Nobody had made an airplane out of Titanium before, and they were having pieces shatter when subjected to normal impacts.

Some pieces were fine, some were as fragile as glass Christmas Tree balls. But Kelly Johnson had a paper trail to follow. EVERY batch of metal had had paperwork follow it.

They found that the samples produced in the winter were fine. Those made in the summer were worthless. The City of Burbank added more chlorine to the water in the summer, to combat warm-weather bacteria, and that killed the alloy!

With the paperwork, that everybody thought stupid at the time, the SR-71 was able to be built. Without it, ...end of program.



Edited By BWhite on 1110844313

#1237 Re: Human missions » Griffin nominated for NASA post - SpaceRef link to testimony » 2005-03-14 17:34:52

Even if Proton were free though, we would still be stupid to lay the future of American spaceflight in the jaws of the Bear.

Ukraine is our friend, having given Putin a poke in the eye, right?

Zenit is Ukrainian.

Working for American capability is good and should be encouraged. A monopoly for buying exclusively American when its more expensive hurts us more than it hurts the Russians.

#1238 Re: Human missions » Griffin nominated for NASA post - SpaceRef link to testimony » 2005-03-14 17:25:21

GCNRevenger, its all about global market share.

Protectionism ALWAYS loses, in the long run, unless we are protecting trade secrets that give a commercial advantage. If no one will buy US EELVs except NASA and DoD where does that leave us in 20 years? How do we encourage a launch industrry that can compete in the global market?

Or is the objective to keep Earth-to-LEO as a government monopoly essentially forever?

Will Bigelow ever buy Boeing lift?

= = =

If Toyota makes more efficient cars how do we encourage the Detroit auto makers to produce better cars?

By giving them a subsidy?

= = =

If we wish to starve the Russian launcher industry into permanent obliteration, for national security reasons, we need to  do a far more effective job than at present. I believe we can contain the Russians for a while but if commercial space gets going, more money will flow to Russia than to the US.

Bigelow and the satellite launchers are already choosing Russia/Ukraine over American launchers, with a few Atlas tossd in.

Either take steps that will KILL OFF the Russian launchers or throw in the towel and buy them like crazy. Since option #1 may require nuclear war <snicker> postponing option #2 hurts us worse than it hurts them.

U of C classic economics 101 - - buying a more expensive domestic product for protectionism reasons hurts us more than them.

Remember, even Boeing buys Zenit for commercial missions!

= = =

On a technical note, do we agree with this from a space.com thread?

To soft-land a ton of something on the moon, it takes four to seven tonnes of propellant on LEO, depending on whether you wanna use LH2 with ISP~450 but with boiloff problems or some LOX-hydrocarbon combination with ISPs from 300-350. DeltaV required from LEO to lunar surface is about 6500 m/s, correct this far?

Slogging fuel is the #1 lift requirement for the VSE, right?

= = =

The US can build HLLV, right now. The Russians cannot, right now. Why compete on their home turf?

#1239 Re: Not So Free Chat » Political Potpourri III - The next round. » 2005-03-14 16:58:53

Wal-Mart fires Solidarity veteran from Poland allegedly for trying to http://newstandardnews.net/content/?act … 4]organize a union.

Tomtas, who was involved in Poland’s Solidarity movement to overthrow a Soviet-style dictatorship in the 1980s, chained himself to a stop sign in front of Wal-Mart on Thursday. Police asked him to leave to avoid arrest, but said he could continue protesting in front of the building provided he does not block traffic.

#1240 Re: Human missions » Griffin nominated for NASA post - SpaceRef link to testimony » 2005-03-14 14:16:18

Can America, through its mastery of human space flight, have a similar influence on the cultures and societies of the future, those yet to evolve in the solar system as well as those here on Earth? M. Griffin

Who will own the future? Griffin's words, not mine.

Does Boeing help us master human spaceflight when Proton has the same capabilities for 40% of the cost?

South Korea is seeking a home grown launch capability patterned after Angora, not Delta. If American EELVs are so hot, why isn't South Korea working from an Atlas or Delta model?

= = =

http://www.astronautix.com/country/korsouth.htm]South Korea



Edited By BWhite on 1110832348

#1241 Re: Human missions » Griffin nominated for NASA post - SpaceRef link to testimony » 2005-03-14 14:08:18

Take settlement off the table and I say send robots and fund midnight basketball.

Settlement isn't on the table. Settlement is a derivitve of the capability created by VSE.

My point is that Griffin personally believes it should be on the table.

Edit: Repeat after me: inevitable outward migration

smile

= = =

How fast? Reasonable people can differ but the goal remains the same.

Perhaps the settlement theme needs to be concealed or mislabeled as something else for temporary political reasons, but less than one year ago, Michael Griffin did tell Congress that spreading western civilization was the essential reason for space exploration.

His words, not mine.

All by itself, that moves the discussion forward.

= = =

Inevitable outward migration - -

Everything related to space exploration should be measured by simply asking "does this program or system help or hinder our species' inevitable outward migration into the solar system"



Edited By BWhite on 1110831088

#1242 Re: Human missions » Griffin nominated for NASA post - SpaceRef link to testimony » 2005-03-14 11:37:55

Although that is true, you could put forward the EELV+ argument based soley on NASA's likly inability to do SDV cheaply enough, where they would let costs spiral out of control, when EELV+ can do the job cheaply enough and is bascially a known quantity.

Don't underestimate the cost of Boeing brand pork sausage.  tongue

Even Boeing won't fly Boeing sats on Boeing launchers, because they are too expensive. That's why Boeing joined SeaLaunch and buys Zenit.

Russian medium lift as an EELV equivalent? I favor. Atlas may also be good, but it has Russian engines. Perhaps Lockheed can buy a license to manufacture Zenits and Angoras in Atlanta.

Delta IV [plus] as our HLLV? - - I am far less certain that Boeing pork will prove a cheaper brand than thousands of Florida jobs brand pork and if/when the political wheel of fortune turns in Washington, who will sustain the VSE?

An all Boeing VSE is very dangerous from a sustainability perspective.

= = =

Take settlement off the table and I say send robots and fund midnight basketball.  tongue

Mandates are political. We set the mandate.

= = =

Edit: Resource exploitation counts as settlement, IMHO, and will lead to permanent human emigration.



Edited By BWhite on 1110822753

#1243 Re: Human missions » Griffin nominated for NASA post - SpaceRef link to testimony » 2005-03-14 10:58:08

What Griffin brings is legitimacy for the proposition that permanent settlement - - and the associated spreading of western civilization - - is the only "why" that can be sustained across decades, or generations. He has stated that "spin-offs" and "educational inspiration" may be feel-good but are actually meaningless with respect to the expense that is needed for space exploration.

It also appears Griffin does not have a history of subordinating his own opinion or personal integrity for the sake of team unity. Good!

Thus, we may have a better chance of learning what is really motivating the architects of the VSE, behind the curtain.

= = =

And, of course, this "why" ultimately requires children being born "out there" - - whether in 25 years or 125 years or 225 years is irrelevant.

Whichever subset of humanity gets there (safe, routine childbearing) first, with the most, will OWN the solar system.

Griffin's quote - - in my sig - - tells me he sees this.

#1244 Re: Interplanetary transportation » A new HLLV essay » 2005-03-14 09:16:40

Without atmosphere and with 1/6 gravity tracking motors to move an inflatable mirror array could be quite tiny, right?

Making electricity from an inexpensive solar furnace seems trickier than heating enclosed boxes with the objective being to extract oxygen.

#1245 Re: Human missions » Griffin nominated for NASA post - SpaceRef link to testimony » 2005-03-13 21:26:27

Look at this:

Noting NASA intends to spend another $60 billion to complete the space station's construction, Griffin urged lawmakers to use the funds instead to accelerate work on a deep space exploration.

"It is beyond reason to believe the international space station can help to fulfill any objective, or set of objectives, for space exploration that would be worth the $60 billion remaining to be invested in the program." Griffin told House lawmakers.

Link to follow:

http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mp … y2/3080401



Edited By BWhite on 1110770839

#1246 Re: Interplanetary transportation » A new HLLV essay » 2005-03-13 21:15:08

It goes without saying that a reactor would be standard equipment for a Mars expedition, given their superior power at that distance from the Sun, lots of useful waste heat, and no power storage concerns.

I agree with this entirely. No nukes? No Mars.

If you are right about Luna, I sure hope Griffin gets those small nukes funded. Otherwise, the VSE would be just for show.  ???

#1247 Re: Human missions » Nuclear struggle for NASA! - Nuclear flight for Manned flights. » 2005-03-13 11:24:22

Nor do we HAVE to have NTR engines for getting around cis-Lunar space. NTR engines don't provide a sufficently compelling improvement in performance except for very large payloads or high-delta (eg Mars) maneuvers. Liquid Hydrogen engines provide adiquate performance, so long as the rockets are big enough to bring up lots of it.

How efficient would an NTR tug be for moving mass from LEO to the Moon on a regular basis? Large payloads broken into smaller chunks.

Chemical is about 5:1 ratio, right?  100,000 pounds in LEO = 20,000 pounds on Luna?  About the same as Mars.

Would NTR be a more efficient way to move mass from LEO to Luna?  Obviously, you need the economy of scale to justify the capital costs.

#1248 Re: Human missions » Nuclear struggle for NASA! - Nuclear flight for Manned flights. » 2005-03-13 11:18:18

There is the underlying issue that humanity has yet to devise a property rights regime for lunar and NEO and Marsian resourecs. 

The Outer Space Treaty of 1967 was enacted to discourage the nations of the world engaging in a "land rush" seeking to claim sovereignty over celestial bodies and the US favored that treaty because in 1967 it was not so clear we could win that race.

= = =


Anyway. . .

La Rouche is, well, let's just say off the wall.     tongue

However, it is true that humanity has not addressed the legal and geopolitical implications of ownership of celestial resources and some threads of conservative thinking might favor delay in opening that Pandora's Box.

One of the "Great Geo-political Games"  of the next 100 -150 years will be jockeying for position in the struggle to write the laws that govern ownership and exploitation of celestial resources.



Edited By BWhite on 1110734347

#1249 Re: Interplanetary transportation » A new HLLV essay » 2005-03-13 11:10:47

This is really a silly argument.   tongue

David Poston has done some terrific work on small reactors in his spare time! Give him some real money and we could have space-rated power generation reactors within 10 years.

But, if we agree that a lack of reactors are a "show stopper" for exploration then the anti-space folks need only de-fund reactor research to stop us cold. The current VSE does not include funding for these "house" reactors (house = running the habs and smelters and O2 generators rather than for propulsion). It appears MIke Griffin agrees we need house reactors. Let's see what he says about the current lack of funding in this area. 

My main point is that  =IF=  we accept the idea that reactors are essential to space exploration, we set ourselves up for another decade or two of delay when 2018 rolls around. But  =IF= we make plans to go forward whether or not we have reactors (less desirable, but feasible) then I predict reactors will be developed somewhere along the line.

#1250 Re: Interplanetary transportation » A new HLLV essay » 2005-03-12 13:28:41

Would a nuclear reactor be nice to have? Of course!

Should we refrain from exploration until we have a reactor? No!

There are millions of reasons why exploration should be postponed for another 50, 75, 100 years. What we need to do is start and then explain a persuasive "why"

By the way, buying a Russian reactor (or a US design made in Russia) would allow a private company to simply by-pass all the anti-nuclear US hysteria.

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