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#102 Re: Not So Free Chat » Current Gasoline/Petrol Price$ » 2008-05-22 15:36:47

Oil price has risen to $135 a barrel and this will have a real effect on everyone on this forums lives.

Is it the fault of OPEC actually in this case not. Though demand has risen there is no real reason for this price hike except for rampant speculation and by traders bets on prices going up becoming a self fulfilling phrophecy.

For now......Bubbles burst you know ask the South seas corporation or the Tulip bubble or the dot com bubble.

#103 Re: Not So Free Chat » Current Gasoline/Petrol Price$ » 2008-05-21 04:31:45

Sorry Rxke and Tom I can qarauntee that the Iranians and the Saudi's do not like each other. They never have and for all intents never will. Though they are Islamic states they are also of two very seperate sides of the religion and you can add to the pot that Iranians are Persians and the Saudi's Arabs and are traditional enemies. They also both want to be the top dog in the gulf.

But like everything they really dont have as much control over the value of Oil as they wish you to think. Oil pumped out of the ground has to be refined and there simply is no spare capacity to do that. The refineries in existence are going at full tilt and they need to be refitted soon and though there are new refineries being built for the forseeable future as soon as they come online others will have to be switched off to get serviced.

Another point is that the middle east has a growing economy, population and a demand for services that are having to be met. Everyone is wanting the new washing machines, Air conditioners, Fresh water production etc and that requires electricity. In the middle east the gas that comes out of wells is often used by pumping back into the ground to keep the pressure in the wells up and so increasing the amount of Oil flowing and to provide heat to the refineries. But as the demand for electricity has grown so has there need to use that gas for making electricity. What this has meant is that Oil production has slowed and has even lead to deals being done for middle east countries to start importing coal for power production.

#104 Re: Interplanetary transportation » Russia+Europe sign deal to build six seater Lunar Craft! :D » 2008-05-19 04:26:31

Orion I/Ares first flight is planned for 2013, so they'll have to work a lot faster.

ESA/RKA are not planning a Moon landing, this craft would probably only be capable of lunar flyby, maybe not even orbit unless they develop a new booster. ESA are talking about providing a robotic lunar lander or maybe a pressurized rover - see Armstrong Outpost - status.

ESA is gaining experience in orbit rendevouz and similar operations. There are plans to turn the ATV into a light spacestation. This would be done by docking two or three together. And a new booster does not really need to be created as they could well use the principal of in orbit refueling and send a lighter spacecraft into space.

Still I suspect that ESA is looking at NASA and wondering if they will be able to keep to there timetable as I am. It seems that ESA is considering the ability to send its own astronauts to space as a means to strengthen there political hand and that any American drive for the Moon will then take them on as significant partners.

ESA planned for the Columbus module of the ISS to be significantly larger and to have its own power and maneuvering systems. This though was vetoed by NASA as it did not want the Shuttle to appear irrelevant in supplying modules to the ISS. The result was that the Hiatus after the shuttle accidents seriously impacted the timeframe and ESA had a built module and a series of supply craft mostly ready that where not needed for quite a while.

It is in this context that ESA will look as to how it will aproach becoming a partner to return to the Moon and ESA has to also look at just how much support NASA really has to be able to achieve its stated goals.

#105 Re: Interplanetary transportation » Russia+Europe sign deal to build six seater Lunar Craft! :D » 2008-05-18 06:01:48

This is why NASA is doing a 180 with Ares and Orion, going back to the older and more practical ways of doing manned space vehicles.

Not that I think that NASA are useless (They've done many successful thigns in space), but the Russian deserve their dues for creating reliable space transport and some fantastic engineering!

But that is literally the past. They do not have the resources and cold hard cash to reinvogorate there program and the Soyuz capsule has reached the end of its use. It does not have enough capacity to be upgraded and certainly any replacement requires foreign cash to pay for it.

ESA which at present does not have a man capable launcher is seen by the Russians as there best hope that is why they put out these statements trying to get ESA to invest.

But do ESA with there ATV have a vehicle that could quickly be man rated and one which has a lot of capability. Certainly next month in Germany there is a symposium of doing just that.

#106 Re: Interplanetary transportation » Mass People Transport » 2008-05-18 05:52:35

For the time being, all we have is disposable space craft!!
It would be a very expensive way to mass transport people - but we know its feasible!

I heard that some version of the Russian Energia was going to be fully reusable. All stages and boosters would be able to glide back down to Earth using wings/parachutes. If that were true - its a pity they stopped that program.

The reason that we are still using disposable space craft is that they are a tried and tested technology and one where we do not have to put a lot of money into designing new hardware. It is literally a chicken and egg scenario we do not need to develop cheap RLV access to space until we need to put a lot of people routinely (Read Daily) into space and we can't put a lot of people into space until we have cheap RLV.

GCNRevenger is correct that the cheapest RLV is a single stage craft when it comes down to routine access but we do not have that technology now and it will be very costly to develop. Im an advocate for a TSTO RLV where we get the advantages of a better mass fraction and one where we can still get quick turn around as we keep both aircraft as that is what the lower stage is. Examples of such craft are Saenger 1 and Bristol Spaceplanes Spacebus.

The idea for mass population movement is to get as close to Airline use out of these craft as possible. If we can do that it will drastically cut the cost of people to orbit and of course cargo too. Of course it still comes down to what do we need that many people moving in and out of orbit daily for.

#107 Re: Human missions » Problems with Humans on Mars » 2008-05-17 10:36:35

This whole thread and its arquements can be put down to one arquement.

Do we as a species want to stay on this planet or do we want to spread the human race out.

Robots can be a lot more efficient than any human can and cheaper too. But humanity is still fundamentally more flexible. Any proper stratedgy will use the best bits of both man and machine.

But will we pay the cost?

#108 Re: Human missions » Armstrong Lunar Outpost - status » 2008-05-17 10:25:35

A lot of our manufacturing techniques on the Moon will be to utilise the free power of the sun. Certainly focusing the sunlight will give very high tempatures and a very efficient way to cut materials as well as to cinter road ways and to create structural materials.

The first lunar outposts will utilise these technologies for us to field test and improve these technologies.

#109 Re: Human missions » Armstrong Lunar Outpost - status » 2008-05-15 11:17:18

Here is the Robonaut

Not really. The most advanced space based manipulator system is the newly installed Dextre robot on the ISS. Dextre is designed to replace standard units on a well defined structure in free space. Dexter is yet to be tested. The surface of the Moon has none of those properties.

We already utilise robots in mining and construction. Dextre is a case of space politics and a lot of delays. Its capabilities have been greatly surpassed now. NASA actually designed the Robonaut to do what Dextre does but better.

The Moon is also covered with highly abrasive dust. Perhaps truly dexterous robots will be available in the 2020s but so far they have proven extremely difficult to design.

Since Dextre has been designed we now use robots to do telerobotic operations on people. Robots can now navigate themselves around towns and finally a good example of just how well older designs can do just look at the MERs they have been able to survive the Martian Dust which may well be worse than the Moons and operate for years. The one great advantage to the Moon is that we intend to do maintenance on robots there and this will solve a lot of problems.

The technology we need will not be ready in the 2020s it is already here.

#110 Re: Human missions » Armstrong Lunar Outpost - status » 2008-05-15 10:17:56

1. There is sufficient power already in place to support this manufacturing and construction activity. This means an initial power plant has to be established using a system produced an Earth and transported to the Moon.

That is a given. The first lunar outpost will rely on a power plant sent from Earth and it is likely to be a combination of a nuclear derived plant and solar cells. Still the first available opportunity will allow us to place solar cells on a peak of eternal light. Chances are that it will be a specially derived payload sent from earth that is either landed on the spot or transported there to be set up. We will then decide where our first permanent base will be and one of the main considerations is access to minerals and of course solar energy.

2. Regolith mining and handling technology is available.

Regolith certainly for the first foot is very loose after that it is very compacted. There a lot of threads on just how we can move regolith and I frankly do not see it as a problem. We will need to process about 10 tons a year to get the oxygen we need out of Silicane but that will actually be 10 times as much processed silicon that we will need for increasing a solar power grid by a MW a year.

3. Unless there are significant advances in robotics, there will need to be enough crew time available to establish and maintain the solar panel fabrication and deployment facility. This will be a trade off between highly expensive crew time, extremely expensive to develop and test manufacturing systems and the value and requirements for additional surface power within the context of the Outpost timeline.

That is not really the case Robotics has advanced to the point where they are very available for us to aid work on the Moon. Actually it is at the stage where using telerobotics and the very short communication lag that we can put a lot of the construction and base development onto robotic hands all controlled from Earth.

All manufacturing on the Moon will be highly automated and supplying the resources these factories and extraction systems need will be the job of telerobotic systems. When it comes down to the deployment of manufactured solar panels robots similar to the Robonaut using human space tools will do the job.

#111 Re: Human missions » Armstrong Lunar Outpost - status » 2008-05-15 07:29:43

When we go back to the Moon we will want to be able to increase our power supply from the materials we find there.

Though ultra thin pv coatings have shown to be very efficient they are also weak and prone to damage from radiation. But much more importantly they require laboratory conditions and materials hard to find on the Moon.

One of the most common elements on the Moon is Silicon and we will be processing it just to get Oxygen. The pure Silicon we have just made can then be used to make the simple amorphous Silicon solar cells. These are very rugged and more or less immune to radiation damage. They can be placed on boards of lunar derived metal sheet.

So there efficiency may only be at working use about 5% but the benefit is that we have tested what it would be like to manufacture these cells and we can easily make it an automated process and so we can just keep increasing the power capacity of a base.

Another thing to increse there ruggedness is to not make them sun following. Just place them on A frames and occasionly go past and dust them.

#112 Re: Interplanetary transportation » Space X on track for Mars » 2008-04-29 13:50:11

The Commercial communication companies are currently desperate for a launcher that will put something in the eight tons range into orbit. This is to support the new developing mobile phone and internet market in the far east. This market relies on very powerful signals to make the phones and computers smaller and these satelites to deliver this desired power have to be large.

Currently the only launcher is the Ariane 5 that is open to these companies and has the desired launch capability. But if the Falcon 9 can fly then it will have the desired capability and as a commercial launcher SpaceX will have a lot of intrested parties.

#113 Re: Human missions » Armstrong Lunar Outpost - status » 2008-04-25 03:22:23

Why doesn't the UK go for it?

This is going to be political sorry but it is the only way to answer you and louis

Ciclops the quote from you is the heart of the matter. The simple answer is that the UK goverment has no interest in doing it and will not finance it. We are the only country to have given up spaceflight after we had actually managed it and that was at the behest of the goverment at the time. Needless to say if we had kept at it for a few more years we would have had a very efficient and cheap launcher just when everyone wanted to launch satellites. The UK goverment has little interest in space and even in science.

We have only one succesful active space company in the UK (Im not counting Virgin or Starchaser, both have yet to fly) that is Surrey Satellite Technology limited. It is has been announced that it is to be bought out by one of its rivals in the micro-sat buisness. There is no goverment protection for any space buisness and Surrey managed to thrive even in what could best be called a hostile enviroment for these companies.
The Space reviews take on the whole buisness.

Small satellite builders: a tale of two mergers

By the middle of the century a new legal structure for the solar system will have to be agreed on. Only major space players will have a say in this rulemaking process. France, China, Japan, Israel, Brazil, Russia, and the US will all have seats at the table. Canada will too, if they continue to defend their position as they have done recently. If things go on as they have, Britain, if it has a seat at all, will be there only because the other powers fell pity for a once-great nation.

NASA are on the slow boat.

If we devoted the Olympics £10 billion to a lunar base mission, the UK could be on the speed boat to the Moon.

louis there is no chance that the UK goverment will do this you know. At least NASA is on the boat. Our goverments view is that the boat when built should immediately be sunk and never to leave the harbour.

Still there is hope. If you read between the lines there might be some goverment sponsorship of an indigenous launcher coming

#114 Re: Human missions » New Moon Direct » 2008-04-23 03:41:58

This is an interesting link on surface inflatables:

http://cosmiclog.msnbc.msn.com/archive/ … 65477.aspx

I think it shows Bigelow are well on top of the problem. They are fully aware of the dust issues and have strategies for coping with that.

They are also using regolith protection for the inflatable. They're not saying how they are going about that. On the Moon, my trench solution, may well not be practical, given the powdery nature of the regolith.

They are a bit coy about how they are going to get it around the inflatable.
It sounds innovative - so I am guessing some sort of compartmentalised shell . They then blow the regolith powder up in to the compartments with a sort of reverse vacuum cleaner, filling them up and closing them off until they have a complete shell. Sound feasible?

Sandbags full of lunar regolith compacted material would easily do it.

#115 Re: Human missions » New Moon Direct » 2008-04-20 07:18:51

All that we need to make cinterized blocks is a way to focus a lot of heat onto a mold to form the block we want. It works on the natural regolith to our favour.

We can do that with a series of mirrors. It is one of the easiest construction methods on the Moon

#116 Re: Human missions » International Space Station (ISS / Alpha) » 2008-04-19 07:02:10

Apparently they suffered about 10 G on there way down and though safe they are being treated and checked by medical authorities at the landing site.

#117 Re: Human missions » Lunar soil is great growing medium » 2008-04-17 13:40:19

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7351437.stm


Interesting link showing that lunar regolith, ground down, plus bacteria gives a good growing medium.

Sorry louis posted this already in the lunar Outpost thread.

Lunar Outpost - status

#118 Re: Space Policy » Outsourcing US exploration of the Moon/Mars to foreigners. » 2008-04-17 06:43:38

Hi Larry,

What do you thing of Social Program for the rich people, by the bail out of Bear Stearns by the Federal Reserve fifty billion or more and then cycled through the Federal Government as debt with interest to pay too?

In the great wall street crash of 1929 we learned very harshly some lessons. The first is that we have to protect banks. In the case of 1929 the crash collapsed banks and we had a wave of collateral damage. this was literally destroyed buisnesses that though struggling could have easily have survived. Many small buisnesses simply had one bank account and when that bank collapsed so did there savings. With no cash they could not pay for items or even wages so they went down themselves. Banks by there very nature are closely linked. If one goes then there is a real risk of others going with it too. In 1929 we learned that lesson. It was the total collapse of the banks that kept the crash going on and on and creating the great depression that through almost half of the USA's workforce out of jobs.

In 1987 we had a crash that was actually by nature more severe than the one of 1929 but we had learnt our lesson and kept the banks safe and the Markets knew the Banks where safe. The result was that in a matter of days the crash figures had recovered.

I know it is not fair to protect one element of buisness above others and to provide a get out of Jail free card but we really dont have a choice as it is the only way to protect the whole economy and by its nature ordinary people. I dont in any way like it but necessity it is.

There are two types of Banks, Savings and Investment. Bear Stearns is the latter and it is investment banks which are the ones that stump up the cash to pay for mortgages and for loans ie credit cards, car loans etc. It in turn gets the money to pay for that by borrowing from the safer savings banks.

The credit crunch caused by America's sub prime market worries and the fealing that the Dollar is so weak has made banks unwilling to lend money to each other and as a result Bear Stearns found itself without any cash to pay of outstanding loans even though it had good assets. If Bear Stearns had gone down it would have left a lot of other banks who had loaned it money in a bad position.

#119 Re: Human missions » Armstrong Lunar Outpost - status » 2008-04-17 06:08:43

ESA have developed a means to grow plants in crushed Moon rock.

Plants 'thrive' on Moon rock diet

An Esa-linked team has shown that marigolds can grow in crushed rock very like the lunar surface, with no need for plant food.

apparently they first seeded the crushed rock with bacteria and the plants in this case marigolds did very well.

laun.jpg

Of course any plant grown in this strata just by going through its life cycle will actually improve what is now soil. The Bacteria apparently took from the rocks elements that the plants would need.

ESA scientists believe they could go further if they used genetically modified plants and using different bacteria to help them thrive.

#120 Re: Planetary transportation » New idea for Mechanical CounterPressure suit » 2008-04-17 06:00:43

The US army have been developing Exo-Skeletons for use initially in there logistics.

US army develops robotic suits

They are needless to say a few years away from actual deployment as there are still issues over balance and power but this prototype does show the actual ability that an exo skeleton would give.

In the three video's attached to the post you will see the XOS Exoskeleton do a bit of weightlifting and then they had to soldier who was piloting try it without the suit. Needless to say the weight was picking the soldier up.

Still this technology will go out into the civilian side and of course would be an incredible bonus for any Mars explorer.

#121 Re: Human missions » Venus First » 2008-04-16 15:51:36

If you're going to export sulfur from venus, you might as well export it from earth. 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polyanhydrides polyanhydrides

Why? There is vast clouds of Sulphuric Acid on Venus that could be directly tapped. On Earth, you need to create sulphuric acid in chemical plant from other minerals. The escape velocity of Venus is slightly lower than Earth. woot!

Sulphuric acid is one of the most useful and produced chemicals in the industry. The ability to produce large amounts of it is often cited as a indicator of a countries economic power.

And it will useful to us how. Why would we transport it anywhere at hideous expense when most of the places we are planning to go have stocks enough for use. And so why go to Venus to mine it from the atmosphere then build somehow an infrastructure to launch it around the solar system.

Especially as we will likely be going to Saturn just so we can get at the Helium 3 there so there is Sulphur there too and a willingness for us to develop infrastructure there.

#122 Re: Human missions » Venus First » 2008-04-16 10:25:43

The major difference in missions to Venus and Mars is how hospitable the planet is and the journey there.

In the case of Venus not only can we not walk around the surface we are also actually heading towards the biggest radiation source that we know. It is doubtful if we can actually even get a crew to land there in the first place and if we have them in orbit they will be recieving high doses of radiation just to operate ROVs on the surface.

We have yet to develop anything like the technology to build a floating city on Venus and there is the question of just what need do we have for such. What will floating cities actually accomplish, what economic reason do we need for them.

#123 Re: Interplanetary transportation » ESA considers unmanned robotic Lunar Lander » 2008-04-16 09:56:03

ESA considers robotic lunar cargo lander for Moonbase

The European Space Agency is considering a robotic cargo lunar lander that would deliver 1,700kg (3,700lb) to a manned outpost on the Moon.

Flight obtained details of the proposal from another space agency's official and ESA has declined to provide information as the lander is a part of the agency's proposals to its member states' ministerial meeting to be held in November. ESA and other world agencies, with NASA in a lead role, are in discussions about a Moon base to be located possibly at the south pole in the 2020s.

NASA's lunar lander concept named Altair is a 45,000kg vehicle that can deliver 4,500kg of cargo along with four crew to the Moon's surface. But NASA's own Lunar Architecture Team concluded that 6,000kg was preferred for an outpost. So the European lander could almost fill that cargo requirements gap.

So an ATV for the Moon and of course giving ESA major influence in a return to the Moon as Russia has with the whole ISS project

#124 Re: Space Policy » Outsourcing US exploration of the Moon/Mars to foreigners. » 2008-04-16 07:31:39

But in a democracy it is weight of numbers that influence any vote and that top fraction of one percent may have a lot of the money and be able to influence politics much more than the average person but in the end it is that 95% that really have the power.

And any politician has to look after that 95% to keep himself elected. Social programmes do have a place in society it is these that make our civilisation it really only becomes a problem when you dont have an idea of where you want your limits.

Can anyone really argue that basic education, basic medical care and keeping those who cannot get work or are too old to work is wrong.

#125 Re: Human missions » Venus First » 2008-04-16 03:27:38

Gregori, living on Mars unlike the Earth will be for a long time a very Hi-Tech enviroment. Our domes and Habitats will be very efficient in keeping air, water and other essentials in, as well as keeping what we dont want out.

We know that there is water present and that we can make air out of the materials there all we need is energy and all our plans are to send to Mars with our colonists the ability to generate a lot of energy and to indigiously make devices there that could generate more.

Earth does have a fresh water problem and a lot of it is down to our making but we also have a real energy problem in that we dont make enough to be able to deal with our water shortages.

To categorise and research the mineralogy of Mars will be the work of decades we are still studying it here on Earth and it has been one of our most important sciences since Hugh Miller did a lot of the basic work we all draw on. We do know a lot about Mars but until we get people there we are reaching a plateau of knowledge that requires human eyes to look at and see where to go next.

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