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https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comment … uperheavy/
Whatever you might think about the quality of some aspects of the Starship - legs, fire control, whatever - the pace of development is truly amazing. They are already working on SN20 and BN3!
There's no way a mature colony will need 2,849 sq metres of PV panel per person . There's something gone wrong with kbd's calculation in my view.
Let's see if kbd maintains that is the amount of PV panel required per person, first.
Louis--
I applaud your optimism. On another planet, optimism will get a lot of people killed.
I'm a professional scientist by trade, and I have always gone with "just the facts." kbd512 has satisfied me with his basic math calculations. Sooner or later, Elon will also wake up to the need for nuclear power, in spite of selling solar panels for (Part of) his living.
There are lots of other people besides myself who abhor the idea of he entire landscape covered with solar panels, as the fantastic Mars landscapes are part of their reason for going there in the first place.
Kbd,
My maths suggests there is somewhere you've gone wrong in your calculations.
53.38 kms x 53.38 kms = 53380 metres x 53380 metres = 2,849,424,400 sq. metres.
2,849,424,400 sq. metres divided by 1 million gives a per capita figure of 2,849 sq metres per person.
On Mars with maybe 25% efficiency this per capita PV panel figure could maybe generate 1424 Kwhes per person per sol (assuming 0.5 Kwh being generated per sq. metre). Assuming a 25% reduction for energy storage, that would give a useable 1068 KwHs per sol per person. That would equate to about 43 Kwes constant per person, not the 3.7 Kwes you mention.
You figures might be about by a factor of ten as far as I can see.
I have other observations...
For some reason you appear to be using figures for keeping people alive in space or in early missions as a subsitute for thinking about energy requirements in a city of one million on Mars.
Take just one example. A million person city is going to be its own heat island, much more than an orbital space station. Heat loss from one unit will go to another unit and so on, the overall heating requirement will be reduced on a per capita basis.
I don't know why you are ignoring the fact that plants produce oxygen. Surely that is highly relevant.
Mars is not uniformly dusty. There are areas that have relatively low dust amounts.
You don't have to lie the PV roll flat. We'll have to see if the dust issue is as bad as you make out, remembering just how well PV panels have worked on Mars in reality. If it is a problem, it can be hung on wires held taut between poles. That won't add much to the infrastructure requirement. My hunch, though, is that with robot cleaning this won't be a requirement .
We already have PV power producing 2% of the world's electricity on Earth - the equivalent of electricity for 140 million people, not 1 million. Just because all the PV panelling is currently spread out all over the globe, is irrelevant, it could just as well be concentrated in one location e.g. Sahara or SW USA, if that was a needed solution.
I accept electricity requirements will be substantial on Mars but you have at least 30 years - probably more like 100 years - to put the solutions in place for your million person city. My own view is we will be doing very well if we have 100,000 people on Mars in 30 years' time (and many perhaps most won't be permanent settlers).
Land area usage on Mars is irrelevant. If we need 2850 sq kms plus that's not an issue. There is pretty much the same land surface on Mars as on Earth, but as things stand the land on Mars is unproductive and unoccupied, so to lose the land is not an economic cost.
I think you're trying to find difficulties where there are none or there are solutions.
Firstly building huge frames to house solar panels is not necessary. There is already a technology for laying out rolls of solar panels and this could be done by robot vehicles following transponder-defined routes.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-sou … s-41443312
Secondly no one - not even Musk - is talking about building a one million city overnight. If it was done within 30 years, that would mean (using your figures) they had to build nearly 17 sq kms of PV array every (earth year) - or about 48,000 sq. metres per sol. With a working day of 6 hours that would require that 8000 sq metres per hour. I'd estimate robot rovers could lay maybe 200 sq metres per hour. So you would require a team of 40 robot rovers to accomplish the rapid rollut. You'd need other robot vehicles to transport the rolls, so let's say maybe 60 robot rovers. Obviously you'd need to transport the PV rolls from the spaceport to the PV array fields, and you'd have to lay down cables and so on. But 60 robot rovers could probably handle the installation of the PV array for a million people.
However, I don't really accept your power demand estimate. Power demand for the early colony will be very different and much higher I think than will be the case later on.
In the early colony, the first three or four missions at least, everyone needs to return to Earth, and so you need to fuel up a big old Starship. By the time you have a one million person city most people will be emigrating to Mars on a permanent or long term basis. Fuelling Starships is a huge call on the per capita energy resources in the early stages. This will decline and it is quite possible we will find a methane source on Mars that means we don't need to use Sabatier to get our methane.
In the early colony we will rely on artificial light for farming. Later, we will have natural light farming.
To begin with, oxygen will have to be produced by electrolysis, but later on oxygen will be produced by plants and trees - no need to input energy.
Initially we'll be manufacturing things from scratch but later on recycling of materials will become a much more important part of the economy. Yes, recycling requires energy input but is even more economical on Mars than on Earth.
I also don't think in reality we'll be relying 100% on solar.As mentioned, methane sources might be located and so methane could be used to generate electricity. There is also obvious scope for a differential heat engine of some description.
The rosiest energy usage projections that came from Mars One were 3.7kWh of continuous power, per person, per day, for ECLSS and replenishment of O2 / N2 from the Martian atmosphere and H2O from surface ice deposits, to support a crew of 4 colonists. That means 3.7GWe of continuous electrical power for a million people. That equates to 32.412TWh of power per year. That presumes all food will be imported from Earth, which would be grossly impractical for a city of a million people.
32.412TWh / 0.65TWh per Bhadla Solar Park (10km^2 of solar panels) = 49.86 Bhadla Solar Parks to keep a million people from running out of air and water. That's 500km^2 worth of solar panels, spread out over 2,850km^2 of land area (I confirmed the 57km^2 for the Earth-based Bhadla, which spaces out the solar arrays to prevent shadows being cast by the other panels of the array, onto adjacent solar panels, and for access roads / trails to erect the panels). That would qualify as the absolute largest solar array that humanity has ever constructed, bar-none. The next largest array on Earth isn't 1/10th of the size, even though those arrays are clearly visible from space. That covers basic life support only. The real power requirements are associated with food production, construction, mining, and manufacturing. Bhadla was considered something of a record, but it required 8,500 personnel to construct it over 8 months. We're going to need around half a million people to do nothing but erect solar panels for 8 months. There won't be enough power to keep them alive, though, until after the array has been built. Minimally, we need all that excess power while the city is being constructed, to supply the power to make Sulfacrete and to construct pressurized living spaces and indoor farming spaces. Realistically, this city will take 10 to 20 years to build, and then we need to replace the solar panels with more panels imported from Earth or made on Mars from local resources and recycled panels.
Mars One noted that they couldn't supply enough power from their mass budget allocated to the solar array during the shortest days of the year, and would have to figure out how to reduce their energy requirements by prioritizing energy usage for the most critical life support functions. Since insufficient power was available for life support, no power for construction, food production, or manufacturing would be available, either. Their report was published in 2015.
NASA has had six years since to perfect CAMRAS (amine swing bed CO2 scrubber / atmospheric revitalization) and IWP (grey water to potable water filtration system), which is what Mars One was relying upon on the agency to develop. Those systems are finally slated to fly as fully operational subsystems aboard Orion later this year or early next year. They've spent hundreds of millions of dollars on "closing the loop" and reducing power requirements. Anyone who thinks they're going to do significantly better should stop talking and start demonstrating their flight-ready hardware aboard ISS. CAMRAS and IWP prototypes have already flown aboard ISS, and those systems are now there to stay because they worked so well during testing.
If we can't realistically construct an array 50 TIMES the size of Bhadla on Mars, then we have to admit that a city of a million people isn't possible with solar power alone, or we have to instead rely upon our one technologically feasible alternative, which is nuclear power.
Can anyone else here appreciate the incredible energy consumption associated with building and operating our farms and cities and factories and mines and educational system to educate our people to use the available technology?
It's a truly staggering amount of power, even in a place where the air and liquid water are "free".
It could be the case that scaled-up life support systems require less power on a per-person basis, but I find that assertion to not be credible because the power consumption is based upon pumping rates and electrical heating. Electric motors / pumps circulate the atmosphere or water through the devices that scrub CO2 from the atmosphere or produce potable water from grey water. Pump proportionally more atmosphere through the amine swing bed of CAMRAS, and you need more power. Pump proportionally more grey water through the ionomer membranes of IWP, and you need more power. Absent more power, there can be no increase in pressurized living space, nor the population size inhabiting the base / city. A million people will need something along the lines of at least 26 NRG Stadiums to live in.
This entire endeavor appears to be utterly impractical with solar power alone, marginally feasible with nuclear power even though I still have my doubts about that, and probably only truly practical and economical with nuclear fusion, on account of the material input rates to sustain fusion vs fission vs photovoltaics. You need at least several orders of magnitude more material input with solar, and about an order of magnitude less input with nuclear fusion vs nuclear fission. If this was going to be practical to do with photovoltaics or nuclear fission, then we should ask why we haven't already established a city or even a tiny crewed base on the moon. We had the technology to go to the moon about a decade before I was born. Five decades later, there's still no moon base to test out all these ideas we have about what we can or can't do, what humans can or can't tolerate in terms of gravity, etc.
Well the Wikipedia article suggests the two are synonymous with micrometeorites being those micrometeorids that reach the surface.
Even tiny objects can do damage if travelling at speed but I think we can all agree that there are definitely objects from outer space that might split up during entry that can do damage to Mars settlements - whatever their official title.
louis wrote:Nope you're wrong there Robert:
"A micrometeoroid is a tiny meteoroid: a small particle of rock in space, usually weighing less than a gram. A micrometeorite is such a particle that survives passage through the Earth's atmosphere and reaches the Earth's surface. " [From Wikipedia]
So they do reach the surface.
Mass doesn't disappear. Micrometeoroids do burn up, break up. Then float like leaves in the wind down to the surface. Your Wikipedia article says micrometeorites ("-ite" not "-oid") reach Earth's surface. How much damage have they done to your car this year? Or the roof of your house?
Nope you're wrong there Robert:
"A micrometeoroid is a tiny meteoroid: a small particle of rock in space, usually weighing less than a gram. A micrometeorite is such a particle that survives passage through the Earth's atmosphere and reaches the Earth's surface. " [From Wikipedia]
So they do reach the surface.
Micrometeoroids do not survive Mars atmosphere. On Earth they burn up 100km above the surface, on Mars 30km. It doesn't matter how many kilometres, they still burn up. The Moon has to worry about micrometeoroids, Mars has to worry about dust storms.
9. You obviously will have to load the returning Starship with scientific samples from Mars. That might take some time - getting everything in position and securing it for launch.
You're right! Could provide some protection from them as well.
louis wrote:I would agree that Bigelow-style inflatables won't become a permanent dominating feature of the Mars settlement but they will be v useful on Mission One I suspect. As for additional radiation shielding that can be provided by having a separate steel frame that can be assembled over the inflatable and filled with regolith or water (including along the sides) so that the inflatable has good protection from radiation events.
Nice idea: a steel frame holding regolith bags. It seems good for radiation shielding but even for micro-meteoroid impact
Re use of robots, it's not true to say these robots don't exist. Robots are used extensively in mining. Robots are used extensively in farming.
Here are some robot miners/related vehicles:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mIBz3cGKDyY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=79esC_pkrEs
This isn't a sci-fi scenario. The robots would be under general control of humans in visual or radio contact.
Space X use Boston Dynamics' dog in functional roles at Boca Chica already:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s6_azdBnAlU
Obviously heavy duty robot mining vehicles haven't yet been adapted for work on Mars but the principles of operation on Mars are pretty well known by now - how to deal with the temperature shifts, energy requirements, wear and tear on wheels or tracks, dust sealing etc.
I don't see any reason why existing mining robot vehicles and robot transporters can't be adapted for Mars.
I would agree that Bigelow-style inflatables won't become a permanent dominating feature of the Mars settlement but they will be v useful on Mission One I suspect. As for additional radiation shielding that can be provided by having a separate steel frame that can be assembled over the inflatable and filled with regolith or water (including along the sides) so that the inflatable has good protection from radiation events.
Space X will have a v. good idea of where the water ice is and really, for Mission One, that is all that matters. There are features, the geological names of which I forget, which are like hillocks with ice cores - these are the features close to proposed landing locations (rock platforms) at the boundary of Arcadia and Amazonis. The ice isn't that far below the surface - maybe 2-5 metres, something like that. All you need to do is get some diggers there and start removing the top regolith layer till you hit ice.
Louis-
I think that Bigelow-style inflatables will serve only for a short time on the planetary surface. Too much danger from Solar flares, and wear and tear on them. You are expecting too much from a too small crew. The main reason for going there in the first place is exploration and a survey of the readily available resources. Reliance on robots is a bit fanciful, since none exist at this point that can do all that you are asking them to accomplish.
I've been wondering what will need to be done to ready a Starship for the return journey to Earth as part of Mission One. Here's my checklist of definites and possibilities (welcome your comments and suggestions):
1. A choice has to be made between two human rated Starships as to which will be the return craft. What factors will be taken into account in making that decision. I guess there will be a major visual inspection of both the exterior of the rocket body and the engine area. Will Space X provide a mobile gantry/crane? Would that be possible? Alternatively a Mars drone might be used for visual inspection.
2. As a safety feature, does any residual fuel/propellant have to be removed (ie pumped out) after landing?
3. How does Space X prepare a rocket for reuse? Is there a need to flush tanks, or decoke engines or anything like that?
4. All life support equipment to checked and double checked. Similarly, coms.
5. What pre-launch tests and procedures are possible on Mars. Are any sort of pressure tests of tanks possible? Obviously static firing is out of the question, I presume.
6. Presumably the landing zone will be examined again and all surface objects - rocks, stones, boulders or anything that someone's accidentally left lying around - will be removed.
7. I guess there will be some testing of the launch software.
8. Presumably an onboard countdown will be begun a day or two before the launch.
SN15 being rolled out.
I'm at the other end of the scale - 6.
Space X appear to be thinking in terms of two human craft for the outward journey, so that's why I opted for 6...would be difficult to go below 3 per craft.
I'm not saying you couldn't go for more people but with 17 I feel that's building in some unnecessary redundancy for Mission One - you would probably end up doing lots of exploration and science which would be nice but not top priority.
The six people would need to be high functioning in more than one discipline. This isn't so unusual. Doctors for instance often excel at other pursuits.
Across the six you want to cover medical skills (including basic surgery), general engineering, software engineering, 3D printer operation, electrical engineering, geological expertise and coms knowledge. That will probably cover it for Mission One. Operations such as the experimental Farm Hab management, robot control and driving on Mars can be taught as specific procedural tasks, using video training and the like, and all personnel will be adept at those tasks.
My vision for Mission One is it would depend a lot on Rovers and robots. I don't envisage there being much EVA surface action. The key task will be to locate, mine and transport water ice. All that can be done using human controlled rovers and robots. You don't need more than a couple of people working on that once you have found a good source. They will basically be supervising from the comfort of their pressurised Rover the work of robot drillers, diggers, lifters and transporters, dislodging soil and ice.
I don't envisage much construction work being involved on Mission One. The habs will probably be self-inflatables (Bigelow-like structures), that can be towed to the desired location by rovers and inflated on site. Probably the methane and oxygen manufacture plant will be the most complicated structure - that might require some assembly.
Overall, while I think the pioneers will be busy enough, I don't think they will be overworked as in a compressed Apollo-style mission, where things would move quickly from one crucial procedure to another. Once water ice has been discovered, life at the base will settle into something of a routine. Yes they should have some break time - probably combining the "breaks" with some off base exploration would be a good way of managing time. Short 2-3 sol exploration missions would be relatively risk free I feel.
I think a low figure - six - has advantages. It will be easier to maintain team unity for one thing and, as you mention, the resource cargo requrement will be at a minimum.
We're back to the old question of "how many do we send" in the first expedition. In my estimation, the 4 person crew of the original Mars Direct plan is simply inadequate to do all that's necessary on the first visit to our new second home.
I've given this problem lots of thought, and after I state my number, I'll expand and expound my reasoning.A hard and fast number is not possible because there will be lots of changes in planning what the first pre-colonization mission will want to accomplish, but I'm going a bit higher than the NASA plan of 7. I figure around 14 would be barely adequate, but 25 might strain the available resources sent in supplies. My number is 17.
There are many reasons to consider a larger mission crew, based on the workload.
Mainly, I'm considering the physical and psychological workloads on the crew. We're expecting these people to be there for over a year between Hohman transfer windows, and operating at a damned near 25/7 workweek. I'm considering fatigue and mental exhaustion will play a role. There will be differences of opinion between members that can often disrupt the desires of the chair warming planners. We're gonna need many different talents in order to "build stuff" for future use in addition to doing science. Housekeeping will become an issue. Equipment maintenance will become an issue. There will definitely need to be time set aside for simply "doing nothing," in order to get the personal batteries recharged. Illness could be an issue, although we need to quarantine everyone for about 3 weeks prior to departure. Injuries sustained through working and exploring need to be considered. We simply need internal backup through numbers
We need to have several teams within this number--teams of compatibles. Everyone will want to go exploring, but there will need to be limits on simply wandering around. This has to be a team effort, and I'm suggesting that no more than 6 be outside and exposed to GCR at one time, with a 6-8 hour outside time limit. Sleeping quarters need to be well protected from Solar flare radiation and from GCR; we need to limit exposure as much as possible; The entire hab should be covered with a decent layer of regolith, and in a lava tube or cave would be ideal (as we've discussed endlessly in the past).
My bottom line is: there will be too much workload for a skeleton crew to accomplish without going bonkers or becoming angry.
More to follow as time permits.
Hi kbd , The 125 KwH was just for an initial, proof-of-concept, artificially lit food growing operation.
I was suggesting the total energy usage excluding methane and oxygen manufacture might be around 50 KwHs constant-average for a six person mission. About 1,230 KwHs per sol. That would include power used in mining and transportation as well as the experimental farm hab. Happy to accept that might be an over-estimate. But they would presumably be using a fair amount of power on things like rocket maintenance as well. They will probably have to bring with them some sort of gantry crane... I'm imagining there will be a fair few robots moving around the place as well.
I am with you on Mission One Robert.
We have a pretty good idea of all the energy requirements.
We certainly have a reasonably good take on energy required to get 6 Starships there and 1 return.
I think a very generous (as in, will probably be a lot less owing to economies of scale) estimate of energy requirement for the first settlement was around 1Mwe constant equivalent (doesn't mean it has to be delivered as a constant necessarily). From memory something like 95% of that would go into methane and oxygen production. I think I ended up concluding that for a solar power architecture, you'd need to produce produce something like 35 MwH of power per sol (to allow for energy storage).
I agree for Mission One it will be essentially proof of concept for growing food - mainly salads I would imagine as has been done on Antarctic bases. So the energy requirement will be very modest - probably no more than something like 125 KwH per sol. Most of the food consumed will be delivered as part of the cargo.
There would be some exploration but a lot of that exploration would be focussed on the essential water ice mining required to get back home.
I think a six person pioneer crew would be pretty occupied managing the mining, methane/oxygen production, monitoring and maintaining life support, rocket maintenance,preparing the rocket for return and communications with Earth .
You could have a larger crew but then you need to take more life support cargo with you in that case.
GW Johnson wrote:Point 1 -- We do not yet know for sure what the life support power requirements will be. We only know they are "large".
I have to challenge this point. I agree with your other points. But we know what humans need. Finding all supplies for permanent settlement is an issue. I still think the best plan is a relatively small exploration mission first; something the size of Mars Direct. Prove a greenhouse can grow food, with a mission that has enough stored food that crew are not dependant on it. Do experiments with producing brick from Mars dirt. Do various construction proof-of-concept experiments. Prospect for dirt that has no perchlorates. Prospect for ice. Prospect for other resources: hematite concretions as iron ore, anorthite as aluminum ore, white sand for glass.
Then build a relatively small permanent base; Mars Homestead Project designed for 12 crew. Then that would build habitats and life support for the first 100. Only then would a SpaceX Starship arrive with the first 100 settlers. Then they would build for the next 1,000 settlers. But Elon Musk wants to go massive from day one.
Ps. When I was part of Mars Homestead Project, I found technical details for life support equipment for ISS. That includes power requirements. I think that's a fair estimate. The manufacturer kept moving their web pages, as if they didn't want me to see. I think that's silly considering I was recommended we plant to buy life support equipment from them. They proved it works on ISS, so just buy more for Mars. Doesn't that mean I'm giving them free marketing? But that means I could give you those power requirements. And we can estimate heat requirements from JPL's work with rovers.
Louis,
I truly wish I was indulging something other than what teams of NASA engineers have said their continuous power requirements would be. Maybe you know more than dozens of people who have spent their entire adult lives doing this kind of work for the agency, but I seriously doubt it. Now that painful engineering reality has some real numbers behind it, the prospect of supplying enough energy to sustain a million people on Mars, using solar power alone, is looking pretty bleak, isn't it?
NASA's methods for assessing mission requirements is absurdly profligate. Essentially they go to each department and say "What do you need?" Unsuprisingly people respond with "The max - plus some more again". Unless you are talking about coms, surface imaging, space medicine or life support (where they have necessary expertise that Space will have to tap into) NASA is pretty much irrelevant to the issue of Mars colonisation.
Elon Musk's company, not Elon Musk himself, is developing a rocket that might take people there, at some point in the future. He doesn't know a thing about running a city of a million people. If he does, then what he probably knows best is just how gullible people who know nothing about engineering can be. Ultimately, he's a salesman who is selling his own products (rockets, solar panels, and electric cars). I wish him luck in that endeavor, and I've even purchased his products for my own use. Sadly, waving our magical solar power wand doesn't make the fundamental engineering problems go away. The same holds true here on Earth.
Musk does have engineering expertise and the story goes it was he himself who resolved numerous glitches in Falcon 1 and got it to fly.
His enthusiasm is needed for this project but it can't cover up his inability to address issues of social organisation adequately. When Musk talks about putting a million people on Mars he's got some naive notion of people giving up their plots in California and moving to this new planet.
He's a very intelligent guy and I am sure that with time he will come to understand the problem but his focus isn't there are the moment.
He doesn't realise that if he puts up 100,000 tickets at $250,000 a time, for anyone to buy, some Saudi multi-billionaire is going to buy them and give them free to 100,000 peasants from the Middle East, SW Asia and elsewhere. They won't be bought by well off people working for tech companies in Silicon Valley who have too much to lose.
Bhadla is in the middle of a desert. They see wind speeds of 10mph to 15mph, on average. There are no hurricanes or tornados there, and precious little rain. That's why they put it there. Even if you take our own solar panels out of their Aluminum frames, they still weigh over 20 pounds EACH, and produce 300W. Most of that weight is the backer required to prevent those paper thin Silicon wafers from cracking.
Bhadla supplies power to 150,000 homes, so it supplies a maximum of 23,744kWh/home/day, which equates to 989.3Wh/hr. That's enough power to run a few lightbulbs, a laptop, and a few fans to deal with the heat of the desert. My home in Houston (the building I live in and haven't left for over a year now, except to get food) uses about 27MWh of power PER MONTH. I'm using 37.5kWh/hr. That's just the electricity, not the gas, nor the water consumption. There are 5 people living in my home, so 7.5kWh/hr/person. If we toss in the gas and water (which requires power to pump), then we're probably right at that magic 10kWh number that NASA came up with, for people who aren't making or farming anything at all. I don't have to recycle the air that I breathe or the water that I drink, either.
A figure for Earth of about 10KwH per person to lead an advanced-economy lifestyle sounds reasonable to me, for Earth.
A good deal of that will be for heating or air conditioning in temperate and tropical parts of the world. Surprisingly large amounts are eaten up by the supersized TVs we watch these days as well.
Given money is not much of a constraint in the early colony, I think we will be designing our habs to be incredibly energy efficient.
So on Mars at least, I can't see huge power being expended on heating and air cooling. Given heat loss is much less on Mars, that will be helpful as well. Of course, on the other hand we need to power our life support systems and they will be energy hungry.
Regarding the weight of materials, I already threw out some ballpark numbers for other framing materials. No matter how you fiddle with the numbers, we're talking about thousands of Starship flights, just for the solar panels. Laying the solar panels in the dirt will only ensure that they're perpetually dirty, due to the static electricity problem, and not producing their rated output, which makes the weight problem even worse. There will then be thousands more for the batteries. So please, come off it already. This is a fantasy. The numbers are what they are. Don't like it? Come up with a more efficient way to run an AC unit, a refrigerator, computers, lights (we use LED lights), waste water treatment, growing crops, fabricating pressurized habitats, etc.
Please remember that - unlike nuclear power stations - we have actually operated solar panels on Mars, very successfully for many years, beyond their manufactured life. We know how they perform in dust, with only minimal potential for cleaning. With a Space X mission we can definitely have robots on permanent duty cleaning the panels.
Indoor farming of Cannabis, which literally grows like a... wait for it... weed, is 5,000kWh/kg. The average astronaut is eating 0.71kg of food per day, so if they could actually eat Marijuana, then that's 3.55MWh, per person, per day. That's 1,295,750,000Wh per person, per year, to simply feed them. For a city of a million people, that's 1,295TWh. Now we need an additional 1,992 Bhadla Solar Parks. This was already utterly ridiculous before we considered food production, and the more we factor into what it actually takes, the more and more laughable it becomes. This is me laughing at just how much power we really need based upon what it actually takes to produce a kilo of anything, not you, not the dream of one day using solar power for everything, nor anything else. It blows my mind how much energy we guzzle down, yet still need more! It's bonkers.
If you don't like those numbers, then you tell me how much energy you think will be expended to grow enough food to feed a million people per year. Then provide a real world example where someone actually computed their energy use to produce a kilo of whatever crop, using the method you think will use the least amount of power. Whatever numbers you come up with, that's the absolute bare minimum possible, not in any way representative of what we'd actually use.
I have never advocated continued, permanent use of artificial lighting for farming. What I have said is that it will be the preferred method in the very early stages, while the colony is certainly less than 10,000 people strong. Beyond that we clearly need to move into natural light farming. So, all your calculations are pretty irrelevant as regards my position - in fact they support my position, that beyond a certain point artificial light farming is untenable with current technology.
Edit:
Can you begin to understand why I stated that this is only marginally feasible using modular nuclear reactors?
We need an additional 182 of those 1,250MWe large nuclear reactors to supply enough power to feed everyone using indoor farming.
For what should be increasingly obvious reasons, some or all of those additional reactors will need to be made on Mars.
Presumably those people also need clothing, pressurized living space, and every other trapping of TAHC to boot.
The only thing they won't be short of, is work.
See above - we will clearly move to natural light farming. Farming in the optimal zones on Mars with "double" seasons and some help from reflectors, will likely be the equivalent of temperate farming on Earth, which is where most of our calories come from.
Development work will need to be done on heating of farm habs. Ideally we will have translucent plastic habs inflated with low pressure concentrated CO2 to aid plant growth. Heating loss may be an issue, certainly requiring some energy input. We may need to have reflective foil blinds to cover the habs internally at night. We might need to use thermogenic plants that release heat at night. We may need to use differential heat engines to generate heat at night.
Didn't see this post before I posted mine querying some of your figures...
I think you are indulging in some fantasies there.
Your per capita power requirements are too large. And whatever Musk might say a million person city isn't going to appear in 3 decades, let alone overnight: way too many questions over health, culture, technical expertise and so on.
Remember also that because of the benign weather on Mars PV installations don't have to be so robust. There's no particular reason to put them on steel frames. We might decide to lay them out on hillsides or we might suspend them from light wires held taut between posts every 20 metres or so. The steel requirements will be hugely less than on Earth.
On Earth solar is already providing over 2% of electricity generation - the equivalent of providing electricity to support 140 million people pro rata across the world.
Noah,
I made some mistakes in that last post by using some figures about Bhadla that I didn't bounce off of multiple sources. That's what I get for not checking. I also thought that 34GWh/yr figure was actually 34TWh/yr, but that clearly wasn't the case (didn't even check, because this entire "solar power for a million people on Mars" absurdity turns out to be an even greater absurdity). According to the "Interesting Engineering" article link below, Bhadla covers 10km^2 and produces 1.3TWh per year. Maybe that's only solar panel surface area. Wiki says it actually covers 45km^2; maybe that figure also includes area for the service roads around the arrays. Since Mars is twice as far from the Sun than Earth is, let's presume we get half of that power, meaning 0.65TWh per 10km^2. That equates to 140km^2 covered in photovoltaic panels. I can't be sure if either source is correct.
One Farm to Rule Them All: The World's Largest Solar Farms
Here are the other stats associated with the Bhadla farm from the "Interesting Engineering" article:
Another claim to the title of the world's largest solar farm comes from India. The solar plant, located in Kamuthi, Tamil Nadu, Southern India is certainly enormous, but is it the world's largest?
The entire project cost an estimated $679 million and has a total peak capacity of 648MW. The installation covers an area of 3.8 sq mi (10 sq km) and kicks out 5.5 kWh/m² (1 m²=10.7 ft²) a day, and an annual generation of 1.3 TWh/yr is thought to be possible — impressive.
The farms consist of 576 inverters, 154 transformers, and almost 4,660 miles (7,500 km) of cables. All in all, the project consumed 30,000 tonnes of galvanized steel, and around 8,500 personnel worked to install around 11 MW a day, in order to set up the plant in the stipulated amount of time.
Amazingly, the facility was completed within just 8 months. It also includes its own robotic cleaning system. This cleaning system is charged using its own solar panel system.
* Note to Louis on your solar-powered Mars colony fantasy: Well, at least Bhadla has its own robotic cleaning solution, but no mention of how the panels are cleaned (but I'm guessing it's using water), how much all that stuff weighs, etc.
91TWh / 0.65TWh = 140 (meaning, 140 of those 10km^2 photovoltaic arrays that produce an equivalent amount of power from similar panels used on Mars; and of course, actual conversion efficiency won't suffer at all from having half as much input TSI or an atmosphere chock full of fine abrasive dust, because "muh green energy fantasy")
So, to build a similar array on Mars that provides 91TWh of electricity, we need 4,200,000t of steel (42,000 Starship flights), 1,050,000km of power cabling, 21,560 power transformers (no idea how big those are), and 80,640 power inverters. Oh, and 1,190,000 people to complete the array in just 8 months, or maybe only 8,500 people to complete the array over a little over 93 years. I turned 40 last year, so I don't think I'll live to see the end of the array construction if ONLY 8,500 workers are devoted to completing the arrays. Whether or not we invoke robots, AI, CNT - 6,000 flights vs CFRP - 12,000 flights vs Aluminum - 24,000 flights vs steel - 42,000 flights, this only becomes slightly less utterly impractical. Every 20 years, you're either replacing a substantial number of panels and recycling the materials or you're importing more from Earth if you don't have a solar panel factory on Mars that's sourcing its materials from Mars.
Elon Musk is selling a dream, not a practical engineering solution to do what he says he wants to do.
If "The Plan" is to use photovoltaics and batteries on Mars to supply power to a scratch-built city of a million people, THEN THERE IS NO PLAN!
This is impractical for much the same reasons that that "solar powered airliner" that Louis was fantasizing about is and always will be utterly impossible. You can invoke, invoke, invoke "magic" until the cows come home, but in the real world the numbers don't change. I invoked 100% efficient thin film 100g/m^2 solar panels and couldn't come close to making his science fiction fantasy work using his "flying Dorito" / lifting body made from CNT composite, in terms of Pavailable vs Prequired (to move at airliner speeds and carry airliner passenger loads). I know engineering reality can be a real drag, but that's life.
Anyway, I'm done wasting my time on this unadulterated absolute nonsense. Fantasize forever, I don't care. If you want a practical engineering solution for supplying power to a city of a million people living on Mars, then that's called "nuclear power", and even that is at the very edge of feasibility. Heck, I wouldn't drop a dime on any of this silliness until we know with absolute certainty that humans can survive in 0.38g, indefinitely, and figure out how to grow crops on Mars. If Elon Musk or NASA wants to prove they're serious about going to Mars, then gravity simulation / human physiology evaluation is the first experiment I need to see. Nobody's doing that because nobody's serious about going. It's all wild fantasy, "selling the dream", such as it were.
Re post 29:
1. The One Million Person city isn't Noah's target as far as understand it. That target comes from Musk and in my view is crazily over-optimistic on his timescale (I think it was within 30 years).
2. I don't know where you get the world figure of 14 tons - 14,000 kgs - per person per annum for manufactured goods. Given household waste per person in the UK - one of the richer countries - was a mere 392 kgs in 2019, that seems highly unlikely to me. The amount of manufactures required on Mars will be a case of swings and roundabouts. Yes, they will need life support equipment not necessary on Earth but on the other hand, the early colony isn't going to need private automobiles, paper production, oil rigs, ocean going ships, metalled roads, railways, huge airports, rain gutters, pylons, drainage systems etc etc. If I had to guess I would say the overall materials requirement will be a lot less per person than on Earth.
3. Total electricity production on Earth is around 25 TwH (per annum). Of that some 500 GwHs is produced from solar power. That equates to about 1.4 KwH per person per (Earth) day for a million people.
4. Building up solar energy will be related to how many people move there. Every trip to Mars will include PV panel cargo I expect.
But PV manufacture on Mars will also be established. This will be a prime industry on Mars - it might well be the equivalent of the auto industry on Earth. 90% of the mass at least can be sourced on Mars, so hugely reducing the need for PV panel imports.
It was bigger than your average Space X explosion I believe - didn't a large part land something like 5 kms away?
I saw the videos that Spacex posted on their website. The one camera view that showed the fire on the side of the engine powerhead was quite informative. You could see the sparks from the wires shorting out as their insulation burned away.
Of more interest, and still unaddressed, is the reason for the explosion that blew the vehicle apart. Musk tweeted about a "hard start". One has to wonder whether the extreme force transient of that "hard start" cracked the thrust puck open, and in the process cracked open a fitting in the oxygen piping from the oxygen tank ahead of the fuel tank.
Put oxygen into an ongoing fuel-air fire and you get a fast-deflagration explosion nearly every single time. I'm talking about the kind of event that "disassembled" shuttle Challenger. The loose booster poked a hole in the LOX tank, that dumped LOX onto the chronic hydrogen-air base fire at the base of the tank. In less than the blink of an eye, the explosion ripped the center tank to shreds. The shuttle turned broadside to the slipstream, and was ripped to pieces. In the cabin section, the crew was still alive, until they hit the sea.
It's not too hard to put together a similar (and very credible) scenario to explain what happened to SN-11. I just did.
GW
Attractive approach to go back in history.
I agree that it would be risky to build a city with only solar panels. A mix of different types of energy supply looks interesting. To diversify is a good concept in most cases.
E.g. nuclear power and solar cells.
Nuclear power, while it could have a role longer term is problematic for the early Missions for a number of reasons:
1. Elon Musk - a huge proponent of solar power - has never suggested using nuclear power.
2. To carry radioactive material into orbit would complicate the permissions you need to secure.
3. Unlike deployment of solar power, nuclear power deployment is not simple.
4. Do not be misled by statements about the "Kilopower" units being used. This is still an experimental project and no units have been approved for use in space yet, let alone on the Mars surface. Musk is now talking about launching for Mars in a couple of years (unlikely, admittedly) so nuclear power definitely doesn't fit in with that timeline or indeed anything over the next 10 years I would say.
Your concern about the risk of all the energy eggs being in one basket is reasonable but:
(a) Each solar panel is really a separate power station. So if you have 10,000 with you, you have 10,000 separate units. The likelihood of a complete technical failure is small (and you can mix and match a number of different panels from different manufacturers in any case). That is not the case with a nuclear power unit. If it fails, you are losing a huge amount of power.
(b) If you arrive on Mars with a substantial power back up in the form of methane and oxygen (you'll already have quite a bit sloshing around in the tanks but you can bring more as part of your cargo) and you have a couple of methane generators (2 x 10 Kwes) with you, you don't have to worry even if you land in a worst case scenario dust storm.
(c) Dust storms never stop all solar radiation getting through. There is still a lot of ambient light around. Your system will still produce electricity. Dust storms do not stay at peak obscurity in any case - there being feedback mechanisms that lead them to abate. During a really bad dust storm you can probably still harvest anywhere between 20-40% of your normal harvesting of power.
Once your base is established on Mars you will always have plentiful supplies of methane and oxygen available to see you through dust storms and keep artificially lit farming going for instance. So solar power is really a three power option: direct power from PV panels, methane/oxygen power and stored power in chemical batteries.
I thought it was about 100 metric tons per spacecraft. So 200 t on the first trip and another 200 t 26 months later when the crew arrives (total = 400 tons).
Or did they update the design of the starship?
I think I took this originally from the 2017 presentation which suggested there would be six Starships (then BFRs) over two years:
The two spacecraft, carrying only cargo, would be used to confirm water resources on Mars and identify hazards for future missions. They would also place power, mining, and life support infrastructure for future flights. In 2024, two crew ships and two cargo ships would follow, setting up a production plant to make fuel from the thin Martian atmosphere and begin building a base for future residents.
https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/09 … more-real/
So 6 Starships = roughly 600 tons payload. I take off 100 tons for transit flight requirements and for some possible reduction in payload as the design matures (it normally goes that way!), so I tend to work with 500 tons, but obviously this is still guesswork. However, one thing is clear - this is on a scale hugely beyond the sorts of tonnages we are used to seeing delivered as part of the space programme Only the ISS comes close and that's been put together over decades.
I'm pretty sure I've seen the six Starships figure in another more recent presentation.
3D printers are so amazing. I just bought on a few weeks ago and it’s unbelievable how many possibilities you have with a 3D printer. Currently I’m building a small rocket with my friends and the 3D printer is a mercy.
Yes 3D printers are amazing and the big industrial models can produce large, high quality parts. I would envisage taking at least 20 tons of 3D printers, CNC lathes, industrial robots and a small steel furnace perhaps as well on Mission One
I have seen some concepts where the EVA suits are stored outside and the suits themselves have the airlock built in. This is because some dust particles are so tiny that they cannot be filtered and would be deposited in the lungs.
Yes, I think that's a NASA design.
I envisage EVAs being kept to a minimum on Mission One. MCP suits may be more appropriate than the big NASA space suits.
I think mostly for outside activity you will get into a pressurised rover held in a pressurised air locked chamber. You will need a separate air lock chamber next to the rover's chamber to prevent dust getting into the hab. That will probably involve a direct connection to the rover so you climb directly out of the rover into the next chamber. That way dust would be kept out. But if EVA suits are involved you'll need shower facilities in the non-rover chamber to allow for dust removal.
Thanks for clarifying. Yes of course - Musk's goal is certainly to create a milliion person city.
louis wrote:So, without rehearsing all the arguments re solar v nuclear, are you saying that Space X will not be able to establish civilisation on Mars using solar energy as the primary source of energy? Just for the record...
Louis,
Is the goal is to create a self-sustaining second branch of human civilization on Mars, a city with at least a million people, that also pays for itself?
If so, then yes, that's exactly what I'm stating.
Let's not get carried away. They won't be landing on literal rock fields. They will be landing on rock platform with a scattering of rocks and boulders. The big boulders will be identifiable from satellite photos and will probably be the basis used for an accurate pin pointing landing.
Remember Space X will be landing cargo ships 2 years in advance of humans landing. Assuming the cargo ships land OK, the human landing site can be surveyed. I suspect as well as having cameras on board the Starships there will very likely be robots sent out from the cargo ships to do up close reccy. It's even possible they might take to Mars a landing pad in the form of maybe square metre pads weighing perhaps 50 kgs per sq metre. The pads would comprise some very resistant, non flammable material but with some give on the underside to help flatten the overall landing area. Robots could assemble the sq metre pads into a 12 x 12 metre landing pad and lay out laser guidance instruments around the landing pad, as well as radio transponders. Total mass of the landing pad would be 7.2 tons.
Alternatively the robot(s) might simply move all rock and boulders out of the way of the landing point on a rock plaform.
Actually, given plume impact/spreading, the thrown rock hazard to the landing spacecraft is low, except for the landing legs themselves. The risk to anything else adjacent is very, very high.
The debris more-or-less follows a fanned-out "apron" of high velocity gases oriented not horizontally 360-degrees around, but angled upward a few degrees. The debris pieces won't be moving at full gas speed, but at a fair fraction of it, which is quite high. It will arc out there a very long ways. Measured in kilometers, not tens of meters.
That does assume the skirt is high enough off the surface to let the gas fan out like that. If there is no gap under the skirt, all bets are off. Stupid is as stupid does.
GW
Thanks for the answers Robert!
I am sure we are all looking forward to the pioneers on Mars digging down into the regolith to see how far the perchlorates persist. From everything I have read, there is no chance of perchlorates forming below say one or two metres, but whether perchlorates gradually move down under gravity, ice melt or other processes, I guess is an open question.
Use of mirrors within the greenhouse structure sounds interesting. Is this ever done on Earth? I ask because I'm curious as to why it hasn't been tried if it is effective.
The landing sites proposed to Space X by NASA/JPL are not actually that far off the optimal solar irradiation zone (much farther north on Mars because of the planetary "wobble"), so we although overall solar radiation may be on Mars with a two Earth year season effectively and farming at what would be the equator we may be quite a lot closer to farming in temperate zones on Earth than people realise.
So if I understand you right on creating an analogue air on Mars, we should simply concentrate nitrogen and argon without worrying about replicating the proportions in Earth air...?
Interesting post, Robert.
Some points/queries:
1. Re perchlorates - my understanding is these are formed at the surface. If you dig down deep enough in areas where there are say alluvial deposits dating back millions of years, don't you eventually come to "clean" soil.
2. Wouldn't it make sense to use solar reflectors to enhance ambient light farming on Mars. On Mars - unlike on Earth - simple light structures won't be battered by high winds, blown over, rained on or otherwise be damaged. So mylar type reflectors could be manufactured on Mars and angled so as to deliver additional solar energy to the greenhouses.
3. What buffer gases would you recommend we use on Mars when creating analogue air. I can see oxygen production being a fairly easy task to accomplish and adding a little CO2 shouldn't be a problem, but what inert gases would we use. Do we have readily available sources of nitrogen and argon?
Did you want answers? First life support. I see multiple life support systems, configured so you can mix-and-match components. That gives options should equipment fail. On a planet with no breathable atmosphere, a robust life support system with multiple backups is necessary.
Chemical/Mechanical based on ISS: electrolysis of water
Regenerable CO2 sorbent: That means a fan to blow cabin/habitat air through a sorbent, which will absorb/adsorb CO2. Periodically the sorbent is "baked out". The CO2 released will be compressed, stored in a pressure cylinder. Mercury/Gemini/Apollo used lithium hydroxide (LiOH) because it's very light. But that doesn't bake out fully, so it's consumed. Silver oxide is heavier, but does bake out fully. I have a paper from NASA from the 1990s about silver oxide granuals, regenerated (baked out) with a microwave oven. Would you believe a microwave oven is more energy efficient? Duh! ISS currently uses silver oxide for white EMU spacesuits, regenerated with an electro-resistive oven aka toaster oven. Silver oxide is configured as sheet metal. To use a microwave oven, it must be granuals. Navy nuclear submarines use a tank of liquid amine, bubble air through the tank to remove CO2, and bake out periodically. This has a problem in zero-G, the liquid will float away creating a breathing hazard. NASA developed an amine paste based on the Navy's amine. That paste is painted on styrofoam beads. When baking out, ensure you don't heat it so much that you melt the styrofoam. NASA developed an "extended mission life support pallet" for Space Shuttle that fit in the cargo hold. That pallet had styrofoam beads with amine, and extra tanks of oxygen. And the docking port with ISS had a connector so ISS could provide electricity to Shuttle. ISS has large solar arrays, so that provided unlimited power. Amine on styrofoam is lighter than silver oxide, but bulky, large volume. Good for a shuttle or station, but not a spacesuit. On Mars you could use any of these.Oxygen generator, electrolysis of water: Using a semipermeable membrane allows the tank to work in zero-G. On Mars, that's not an issue, the planet has gravity. Oxygen bubbles will float to the surface.
Sabatier reactor: convert CO2 and H2 into methane and water. This requires high temperature, but it's exothermic. That means it produces heat, so once started it keeps going. Human metabolism converts carbohydrates + O2 into CO2 + water. If you work it out, oxygen generation by electrolysis of water alone only produces half the oxygen that humans need. If you produce oxygen that way, and just run it to produce enough oxygen, that will consume water. The Russian space station Mir just let that happen, shipped up large bags of water. After all, 88.8% of the mass of water is oxygen, and with this system they only had to provide enough water for half the oxygen cosmonauts breathe. The rest of the water came from water recycling: urine filtration and cabin dehumidifier. A Sabatier reactor combines all of the hydrogen from the water electrolysis tank with half of the CO2 removed from cabin air, producing methane and water. This greatly reduces the need for water from Earth. It almost but not quite closes recycling. There's still a need to replace some water. Methane and the other half of CO2 must be dumped in space, any moisture in those gasses are a water loss. Furthermore, moisture in solid human waste (feces) is another water loss.
When Mir was still in space, NASA asked why Russia doesn't just ship oxygen up? Yes, their life support system (without Sabatier) recycles half the O2, but still, why ship water? The answer is tank weight. Oxygen gas requires a heavy metal tank to hold pressurized gas. Water only requires a bag; they use a plastic bag with an outer fabric bag so the plastic doesn't tear. 88.8% of water is oxygen, water plus bag has lower mass than O2 plus metal tank.
Water recycling: urine processing and dehumidifier. Filter to produce potable water.
Direct CO2 electrolysis: convert 80% of CO2 into carbon monoxide (CO) and oxygen. Done over a thin zeolite catalyst; CO2 and CO stay inside the zeolite tube, oxygen passes through due to electricity to the outside. CO2 must be heated over +900°C. Between heat and electricity for electrolysis, this consumes 3 times as much power per unit mass of oxygen vs water electrolysis. Since it consumes 3 times as much power, it's something you want to minimize. Furthermore, this recovers 50% of the oxygen from 80% of the CO2, so total 40% oxygen recovery. Sabatier reactor with water electrolysis recovers 100% of the oxygen. However, this can be used on CO2 that would otherwise be dumped in space. So this can be used to replenish life support recovery losses. The mixture of CO with remaining CO2 dumped in space.
This one has a danger: a crack in the thin zeolite tube will allow CO get into cabin air. When humans breathe carbon monoxide (CO) it binds with hemoglobin. We use hemoglobin in blood to transport oxygen. But CO binds to hemoglobin, and never lets go. Once CO binds, that hemoglobin can no longer transport oxygen. There is no treatment to cure CO poisoning. But red blood cells only last 6 weeks. Our spleen breaks down old and damaged red blood cells, and bone marrow makes new ones. So once exposed to CO, it will take about 6 weeks to recover. A life support system that uses direct CO2 electrolysis must use several small zeolite tubes, each in a separate canister. Each canister must have a CO detector in the O2 outlet stream. If there's any CO at all, shut that unit down. It will have to be replaced.
Human metabolism:
Complex carbohydrates are polymerized sugar. Simple sugar, known as monosaccharide: C6H12O6. Every time two monosaccharids bind, one sugar loses a hydrogen atom, the other a hydroxyl group (OH), which combine to form water (H2O). The free bond of one monosaccharide binds to the other. The first step of human metabolism is to undo this. Humans have enzymes that break complex carbohydrates into simple sugar, adding water back.
Cellular respiration: 1 C6H12O6 + 6 O2 → 6 CO2 + 6 H2O
Plant photosynthesis: 6 CO2 + 6 H2O → 1 C6H12O6 + 6 O2
Water electrolysis: 2 H2O → 2 H2 + 1 O2
Sabatier: 4 H2 + 1 CO2 → 1 CH4 + 2 H2OToilet: A new toilet the Russians developed for Mir2 would use vacuum desiccation to extract moisture from feces. This module is now the Russia module Zarya. NASA thought plumbing for the new toilet was too complicated, so insisted they go back to the old toilet, the one for Mir. I imagine after the Columbia accident, NASA wished they had the new toilet.
And some years ago, Johnson Space Center did a study called Advanced Life Support Project. They used an incinerating toilet. This does not require combustion, it can be done with an electro-resistive oven (electric oven).Backups:
1) When water electrolysis fails, use CO2 electrolysis. It will consume a lot of power, but will produce oxygen.
2) Extract CO2 from Mars atmosphere, use that for CO2 electrolysis.
3) Extract Mars ice, will probably be muddy and salty so filter for pure water, feed that to water electrolysis.
4) If water recycling fails, use CO2 electrolysis for O2, shut down water electrolysis. This means water humans produce metabolism will not be consumed. That assumes you still have some water recycling: eg processing condensate from cabin dehumidifier.Biological:
I have argued strenuously for greenhouse(s) that use ambient light on Mars. The reason is all the above systems have a single point of failure: power. An ambient light greenhouse is the only life support system that will operate with absolutely no power. Of course a greenhouse will produce food (vegetables, grain, fruit), but also produces oxygen. In fact, NASA studies have shown that if a greenhouse produces all the food for astronauts, it will produce 3 times as much oxygen as they need. On a planet without a breathable atmosphere, excess oxygen is good! Plants will transpire moisture through their leaves, producing humidity in the greenhouse. That humidity will condense on cold windows. A trough along the bottom of windows can collect that water. This produces water that tastes more pure than any filtration system that NASA has devised. The question is how to recycle urine and feces into something that can be used as fertilizer for plants. Yes, you can process Mars dirt to become arable soil. But that still requires water of some kind.This raises a couple questions. How to process Mars dirt to break down perchlorates. They're toxic, and plants grown in soil with perchlorates become contaminated with those perchlorates. You don't want vegetables contaminated with perchlorate, because that's toxic. Bacteria can break down perchlorate, but you want a faster process. That's one area of research.
Arable soil requires micronutrients, but Mars dirt has that. Fertilizer on Earth is normally K-P-N: potassium-phosphorus-nitrogen. Mars dirt has enough phosphorus, has some potassium but it's low, and no nitrogen at all. At least no nitrogen within detection threshold of instruments on Spirit & Opportunity. Curiosity had instruments 10 times as sensitive, I think Curiosity found a tiny bit of nitrogen in some samples. But not enough, and most samples by Curiosity still had none. We can make ammonium nitrate fertilizer from nitrogen extracted from Mars atmosphere. Yes, ammonium nitrate. That's the white granules that farmers have used for many decades, and people used to use on their lawn before the Oklahoma bombing. You can't be afraid of it, just do it. And potassium fertilizer. The usual source is potassium salt, found where an ancient saltwater sea dried up. It can be found in deposits beneath the Mediterranean Sea, beneath the Great Lakes, etc. There's also a deposit in western North Dakota / eastern Montana, and southern Saskatchewan. (A Canadian province that borders those two states.) And others. On Mars it should be at the bottom of the dried up ocean basin. Until such a deposit is found, we'll have to make do with Mars dirt.
Devising a toilet for a greenhouse on Mars is different than a toilet for a chemical/mechanical life support system. Instead of extracting moisture, you want to process urine and feces for something that can be used as fertilizer for plants. Two basic approaches: grey water sewage processing, or composting toilet. With a composting toilet, you have to ensure to collect urine separately from feces. Current toilet on ISS does that. Urine is left to sit for 6 months, bacteria break down urea to form nitrates that plants can use. Feces must not be contaminated with urine, because it changes which bacteria grow on it. Feces mixed with urine smells like an outhouse. Feces that has never been touched by urine smells like wet soil. Bacteria break down feces to produce compost that can be mixed with soil to produce rich black soil. Composted feces have a lot of potassium. Urine has a lot of nitrogen. Grey water sewage processing allows urine to be mixed with feces, basically a flush toilet. This is called black water. A septic tank uses bacteria to break it down. A carefully controlled series of bacteria breaks down black water into something suitable as fertilizer. That's called grey water. That grey water can be used to fertilize roots of crops, either water the soil or part of the hydroponic solution. Although you may not want to use either composted feces or grey water for root crops like potatoes or carrots. It is suitable for crops where produce grow above ground, like tomatoes, beans, peas, grain, strawberries, etc.
So, without rehearsing all the arguments re solar v nuclear, are you saying that Space X will not be able to establish civilisation on Mars using solar energy as the primary source of energy? Just for the record...
Energy:
When modern civilization was built on Earth, humanity had cheap and easy access to vast quantities of coal / oil / gas that could be burned in an oxidizing atmosphere, along with a strong but light natural composite material, better known as wood. Since we don't have any of that on Mars, we need nuclear power. No part of modern civilization was ultimately built using solar panels and batteries. NASA can use them successfully because they can afford to spend a million dollars per kilowatt of energy output and their spacecraft are either robotic (and thus have a hibernation mode that doesn't equate to death, unlike humans) or operate in full Sun in a hard vacuum for a significant period of time (such as orbiting the Earth). Heat engines of various forms were and are the bedrock of technologically advanced human civilizations, and no technologically advanced human civilization operates without them. Novel yet inefficient and intermittent power sources such as solar panels and wind turbines were and are almost exclusively built using fossil fuels, and lots of them. They certainly have their uses in an energy-rich environment, but Mars is very energy-poor, in terms of both sunlight and wind.
Since all robots and machine tools require copious quantities of energy, spare parts, and highly skilled technicians to operate and repair them, an absolute minimum of specialized tooling should be required to first produce habitable living spaces. After the pressurized living spaces have been constructed, then we can experiment with every other inefficient and intermittent power source we can concoct, but not a moment before then.
Initially, every bit of the energy provided and tooling to produce or repair machinery must be imported from Earth, at fantastic energy cost, so the ultimate viability of any particular technology is very closely tied to its ultimate durability. At present, nuclear reactors are some of the most durable machines that humanity has ever created. There are no solar panels or wind turbines that have operated continuously for 70+ years, for example, although solar thermal power plants can also achieve the same level of durability as nuclear thermal power plants. The longest continuous operation of any spacecraft in space was achieved using nuclear decay heat, not solar panels.
Anything that doesn't absolutely require computer-control should be studiously avoided. The life support and communications systems need to be computer-controlled, but that's about it. You can repair a worn-out air tool such as a drill, using hand tools. The same can't be said of a battery-powered drill. If the battery or electric motor or microchip that controls the battery charge / discharge dies, then the only viable option without access to the factory that produced it, is to replace it. Home workshop amateurs have been fixing air tools for decades without the benefit of any advanced degrees in electrical engineering or factories.
Unlike virtually all sci-fi movies, all airlocks on actual spacecraft are hand-operated and inward-opening, for good reason. If it doesn't have a motor or battery or electronics that can fail. Said "machine" needs to achieve a good seal to hold pressure, but that's it. If the pressure isn't equalized between the visiting spacecraft and space station module, then a human isn't strong enough to break the seal and kill everyone, whereas a powerful electric motor could. Building needless failure modes, especially lethal failure modes, into machines is counter-productive and expensive.
The overriding point is this:
Don't create a Rube Goldberg of a device, merely to satisfy an engineer's desire to prove how intricate and complex they can make a simple task. If a hand-operated bit driver can get the job done acceptably well, then you don't need a battery-powered computer-controlled drill and charger. Simple machines may never attain the absolute pinnacle of achievable efficiency through electrification and computerization, but they also tend to be very reliable and durable.
Building with less energy and fewer resources:
The most practical construction materials are Sulfur-based concrete bricks made from local Sulfur and aggregates, preferably finely ground, surrounding Aramid fiber-reinforced polymer pressure vessel / liners. Once locally-produced Basalt fiber-reinforced polymer for locally made composites becomes available, that will likely be the cheapest / most readily available material for pressure vessel construction.
Cleaning:
There's no such thing as a building in a desert environment that requires "almost no cleaning", so don't waste time on impossibilities and instead figure out how to efficiently and effectively clean critical areas in the pressurized spaces. This is a frontier environment, not a clean room. The Navy cleans their ships at least once per day, even when they're hundreds of miles from the nearest land. Despite that fact, the ships are still filthy, which is why they're cleaned once per day. You can and should do your best to "dust off" prior to coming into the habitat module, but that's as far as that goes. Outside of a clean room environment, dust / dirt / grime is simply a part of life, and people need to accept that.
Repairing:
The fiber-reinforced plastic pressure vessel liners can be repaired in a matter of seconds to minutes, but rapid repair (mere minutes to a couple of hours) is not possible using traditional construction materials (bricks / beams- material doesn't matter / windows; but rapid replacement could be feasible, given a sufficient stock of spares), so focus fabrication efforts on producing smooth / dimensionally accurate bricks to surround the pressure vessel, along with enough spare windows and bricks to replace any that get damaged.