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#826 Re: Not So Free Chat » Political Potpourri V - Continued from previous » 2005-05-25 09:08:38

*America is in grave danger of becoming like that which it hates.

The rise of militant Islam (the rise of militant Christianity).

::shakes head::

--Cindy

And that is why I voted for John Kerry, even if he is a doofus.  :;):

Bush panders to the Dobsons and Falwells of this nation.

#827 Re: Not So Free Chat » Political Potpourri V - Continued from previous » 2005-05-25 09:07:15

Right now, Iraqi policemen are getting chewed up because they are poorly trained (part of the speed up process) and poorly equipped (compared to their adversaries).

They're getting chewed up becasue they're poorly trained and unmotivated. They know they're being utilized to take a beating in place of US troops. Fighting alongside them would go a long way to improving perceptions.

Yet what is the end-game?

The Bush "snub" to Karzai was perhaps appropriate (IMHO) from a US perspective yet that snub will resonate amongst local Iraqis that this war is really about "us" and not about "them"

Where will the motivation come from if the US intends to retain operational control for the indefinite future? Playing junior partner to Big Brother is always less than motivating.

#828 Re: Human missions » Why this discussion.... » 2005-05-25 08:32:10

Bill, howmuch is t/space paying you? You're shameless.  tongue

Nah. They are just saying the stuff I have been trying to say and I figure they have more credibility then little 'ole me.

#829 Re: Human missions » Why this discussion.... » 2005-05-25 08:26:23

...over mission modes. We figured out the best way to get to the moon in the 70's.

Lunar orbit rendevouz works best for flags and footprints but not if we intend to stay.

Access to lunar poles is more readily achieved by L1 rendevous architectures. Direct flight appears to be more efficient once LOX production is up and running.

Mission architecture depends on WHY you are going and what you wish to accomplish.

= = =

t/Space proposes 3 month "Lo road" cargo deliveries and 3 day Hohmann crew transits. Kinda hard to argue with that.  :;):

#830 Re: Not So Free Chat » Political Potpourri V - Continued from previous » 2005-05-25 08:13:52

Cobra, for George Bush to launch a nation-building war KNOWING that the US does not possess a nation-building force structure and then to continue that war without taking steps to acquire a nation-building force structure tells me that nation-building is very very low on the "real" agenda.

Form follows function and the means employed is a better guide to real intentions than a gadzillion policy statements.

I was a very lousy basketball player but my 6th grade coach gave me one piece of advice I never forgot. Always watch a player's stomach - - then head fakes and hand feints can be more easily ignored.

No nation-building force structure? That means Dubya don't give a cr@p about nation-building no matter what Scott McClellan's spin of the day may be.

#831 Re: Not So Free Chat » Political Potpourri V - Continued from previous » 2005-05-25 05:51:33

http://www.editorandpublisher.com/eandp … 30917]Bush press secretary RETRACTS allegations that Newsweek cost people their lives.

Heh!

Double standard?  :;):

Can we RETRACT the war?

#833 Re: Not So Free Chat » Political Potpourri IV - Continued from previous » 2005-05-24 15:44:50

http://www.andrewsullivan.com/index.php … 744]Andrew Sullivan fully supports the fight against Islamo-fascism. Concerning Iraq force levels he writes:

ARE WE WINNING? I haven't tackled the fundamental question in Iraq for a while. No, Mickey hasn't scared me into silence. Since the elections, it's simply been hard to figure out exactly what's going on. You can read the good news here. The demise of a complete Sunni boycott of the next political phase also has to be encouraging. Buit it would surely be dumb not to notice how resilient the insurgency still is, how it has capitalized on the political drift of the past few months, and how it is as lethal as ever. My old friend, Niall Ferguson, provides a longer view. Like me, he has long believed that the war was absurdly under-manned from the beginning. Like me, he wants it to work. But some things cannot change. This is the key point:

>> How, then, did the British crush the insurgency of 1920? Three lessons stand out. The first is that, unlike the American enterprise in Iraq today, they had enough men. In 1920, total British forces in Iraq numbered around 120,000, of whom around 34,000 were trained for actual fighting. During the insurgency, a further 15,000 men arrived as reinforcements. Coincidentally, that is very close to the number of American military personnel now in Iraq (around 138,000). The trouble is that the population of Iraq was just over three million in 1920, whereas today it is around 24 million. Thus, back then the ratio of Iraqis to foreign forces was, at most, 23 to 1. Today it is around 174 to 1. To arrive at a ratio of 23 to 1 today, about one million American troops would be needed. <<

We are fighting a global war with the manpower for a minor spat. Technology can only do so much. And when you further consider that, in order to win, we need to deal with Syria and Iran at the very least, you can see the scale of our problem. Solution? At this point, I can't see any except a major dose of luck.

#834 Re: Not So Free Chat » Political Potpourri IV - Continued from previous » 2005-05-24 13:54:04

Cobra, elsewhere I have described it as a desire to play John Wayne or Gary Cooper rather than Humphrey Bogart. Bogart usually did the right thing yet he never sought credit for doing the right thing. Bush was too eager to be seen as a "war president" to support drooping public opinion numbers.

We also need to accept that we don't understand how to play the tribal politics. Saddam thought he was immune because only a Saddam-like tyrant could keep Iraqi clans in line. Sunni & Shia & Kurd are only the tip of that iceberg.

Iraq is an artificial country, after all, created by the British less than 100 years ago.

#835 Re: Human missions » Rutan:  NASA is Dull » 2005-05-24 13:41:49

Not sure which thread to continue the Tspace commenting but here goes, it would seem that tspace is asking Nasa to contract funds for give milestones of achievement in which they are to provide the CXV or crew transfer vehicle for LEO developement.

http://www.wired.com/news/space/0,2697,67614,00.html] Conflict at Space Confab 

Although Transformational Space, or t/Space, has chosen not to bid for the contract to replace the shuttle, the company nevertheless hopes to beat big aerospace companies to orbit with a four-person crew transfer vehicle, or CXV, that NASA can use to send astronauts to the International Space Station and beyond.

Instead of bidding for the full amount ($500 million) it needs to develop the ship, as the primes will do, t/Space is asking NASA for small increments of development money in exchange for achieving significant milestones.

NASA is sitting up and taking notice; the space agency has already awarded t/Space $6 million for developing the CXV concept and building flight-test hardware that Scaled Composites will fly this week.

Sounds like this was very interesting seeing that lockheed would say nothing about what had been published in the popular mechanics magazine.

I paid $$$ for that dinner expecting to see plans for the new Lockheed CEV and all I got were some cool jokes and a history lesson.

:;):

I suspect everyone knows Rutan and t/Space have trumped the table.  cool

#836 Re: Human missions » Rutan:  NASA is Dull » 2005-05-24 13:39:19

I stole this line about Rutan from a poster named 1207 at space.com - - its a pretty good line:

Rutan can take a good idea and free himself of all constraints, and then play with it in his mind until he reaches the simplicity on the far side of complexity. The Shuttlecock and the use of water for cooling are examples of this.

Simplicity on the far side of complexity

I likes it!  big_smile

#837 Re: Not So Free Chat » Political Potpourri IV - Continued from previous » 2005-05-24 13:15:36

http://news.scotsman.com/uk.cfm?id=5598 … fghanistan:

BRIAN BRADY
WESTMINSTER EDITOR

DEFENCE chiefs are planning to rush thousands of British troops to Afghanistan in a bid to stop the country sliding towards civil war, Scotland on Sunday can reveal.

Ministers have been warned they face a "complete strategic failure" of the effort to rebuild Afghanistan and that 5,500 extra troops will be needed within months if the situation continues to deteriorate.

An explosive cocktail of feuding tribal warlords, insurgents, the remnants of the Taliban, and under-performing Afghan institutions has left the fledgling democracy on the verge of disintegration, according to analysts and senior officers.

The looming crisis in Afghanistan is a serious setback for the US-led 'War on Terror' and its bid to promote western democratic values around the world.

Defence analysts say UK forces are already so over-stretched that any operation to restore order in Afghanistan can only succeed if substantial numbers of troops are redeployed from Iraq, itself in the grip of insurgency.

#838 Re: Not So Free Chat » Political Potpourri IV - Continued from previous » 2005-05-24 13:11:33

Bill, do you really believe this was all about bashing Democrats? That Bush lied about the intelligence, knowing it would eventually come out. . . so that Dems would look bad?  ???

Great plan, what an idiot that Bush must be.  :laugh:

As for defeating the UN, that sort of takes care of itself. Just be ready with the spotlights.

I believe Bush believed his own press clippings and he genuinely believed the fall of Saddam would be like the fall of the Iron Curtain. A few "dead enders" to use Rumsfeld's phrase would object but 80% - 90% of Iraqis would greet us like heroes and set aside their tribalism to embrace Western secular values.

Bad intel on that - - wishful thinking combined with a penchant for firing those who aren't "yes men" - - that problem, ignoring dissenting voices, continues still. Condi Rice, for example, still draws analogies between freedom from Soviet domination and freedom from Islamicism. Its a bad analogy that gets us in trouble.

That said, had we stopped the looting and got the infrastructure going within 60 - 90 days after regime change, maybe it would have been okay. In theory, getting rid of Saddam was a good thing. In theory.

I recall reading at the time of regime change numerous analysts saying we had 6 to 9 months to win Iraqi hearts and minds. After that? We were screwed. So we send in Paul Bremer to FUBAR the reconstruction.

Had Iraq stabilized in months, not years, finding no WMD would have been ignored as irrelevant in light of the greater good.

Bush rolled the dice with America's future - - and lost. Now he wants to weasel out of taking responsibility for the consequences.

= = =

Had Rumsfeld listened to Shineski and arranged for 400,000 troops to maintain order after Saddam fell, had Bush asked up front for the billions needed to rapidly build Iraqi infrastructure; had Paul Bremer not been given a full year to attempt neo-con fantasy policy scenarios, this might have turned out okay. 

But that would have required that they listen to the facts, not the neo-con ideology.

#839 Re: Not So Free Chat » Political Potpourri IV - Continued from previous » 2005-05-24 08:16:24

Question is what you are trying to achieve in Iraq at all. Keeping the country stable so it won't turn into a civil war between rival factions?

As I've mentioned before, civil war could actually be beneficial to us, depending on what we're trying to achieve. Therein lies the problem, lack of clarity. The invasion wasn't the blunder, those came later.

Saddam wasn't the real target of the Bush invasion. The political defeat of the United Nations was one real objective. Building political capital to defeat liberals was another.

Bush KNOWS the Islamo-fascist nut-jobs cannot really threaten the West (except maybe by birth rates and immigration as Gennaro has posted) but they are a dandy tool for bashing Democrats with.

#840 Re: Human missions » Russian Klipper or US CEV - why can we not get it done sooner » 2005-05-24 08:09:39

The t/Space plan simply is paradigm shattering.

Classic rocket science with a 2 stage propane/LOX rocket that is feasible because its launched at 25,000 feet to assist the self-pressurizing system. Very few moving parts = cheap to build.

Classic capsule design with old fashioned ablative heat shield supplemented with transpirational water cooling.

The work Jim Voss did with students from Auburn to design seating at - - IIRC - - 10% of the weight of shuttle seats is an excellent example of their approach.

#841 Re: Human missions » Rutan:  NASA is Dull » 2005-05-24 08:05:55

The flimsy composit contruction that his company deals in primarily is not going to be good enough either, its too fragile and can't take much heat.

The X-38 full size mock-up was built by Scaled Composites, Burt's company. X-38 used the same graphite/epoxy body construction as SS1. In fact, the skin of OMS pods on the Shuttle is also graphite/epoxy with foamed aluminum ribs. The composite materials Burt's company works with are exactly what you need for an orbital entry vehicle, it just needs a heat shield. SS1 didn't have a heat shield because it was only designed for Mach 3.

We have lots of options today including RCC, FRCI tiles, and DurAFRSI blankets; the advanced materials designed for the generation shuttle. DurAFRSI can handle 2000°F, not quite the 2600°F of black HRSI or 2700°F of FRCI tiles, but more than the 1200°F of AFRSI white blankets. There are many places where DurAFRSI could be used instead of black tiles. You could place large blankets of DurAFRSI over much of the orbiter, not the piddly little tiles. Tiles were kept small due to thermal expansion. That's not an issue with soft blankets. AFRSI blankets were made small like the white tiles they replaced, but there's no need for that. Just ask a seamstress how to sew a quilt to cover a curved surface, it's just sewing. A small number of large thermal blankets would greatly reduce labour, both installation and maintenance.

An orbital space taxi would be handy to ferry crew to ISS, to ferry science experiments and supplies to/from ISS, to service space telescopes, to service satellites in LEO, and most importantly to carry crew to a lunar vehicle or an orbit-assembled Mars vehicle.

t/Space intends a redundant system, transpirational water cooling backed up by ablative tiles. If the active system works, the amounts of ablatives consumed is minimized for easy re-use. If the active systems fail the passive system is sufficient for safety.

I listened to a t/Space representative claim that arc-jet testing has proven the tiles to be good for at least 25 re-entries.

#842 Re: Human missions » Rutan:  NASA is Dull » 2005-05-24 08:02:26

What I got out it was that Burt intends the sixth generation of the SS1 line, not to go to orbit at all, but to fulfill point-point transportation. He can do math as well as anybody and knows a completely different approach is needed for orbital stuff.

There is no reason a larger SS1 style craft with enhanced range wouldn't be really handy.

Oh really?

Why would it be handy?

Please read the t/Space website.

SpaceShipOne is NOT the precursor vehicle. t/Space proposes a classic capsule with no wings, no landing gear etc. . .

Propulsion is by pressure fed propane/LOX - - very traditional rocket science.



Edited By BWhite on 1116943387

#843 Re: Not So Free Chat » Political Potpourri IV - Continued from previous » 2005-05-24 06:38:36

Over the last few days, we launch a major offensive to sweep Baghdad clear of insurgents. Arrest 400 or someting like that. Today, a new wave of bombings rip through Baghdad, killing at leats three US soldiers and many civilians. Yup, we are winning.

Listen up! My objections were two-fold and consistent from the  very beginning:

(1) It was a bad imprudent idea, but

(2) If we were going to do it anyway, send enough firepower and resources to WIN QUICKLY

Sadly, for Bush and Rummy looking GOOD is more important that winning.

#844 Re: Human missions » Russian Klipper or US CEV - why can we not get it done sooner » 2005-05-23 20:42:10

I believe clark is assuming the viability of the bare-bones t/Space air launch rocket capsule for crew.

Launch your big CEV once, and re-use it. And yes this assumes lunar LOX comes on line close to the beginning of the program.

But NOT lifting your robust Cadillac CEV for every mission will save launch costs, even if CEV can re-enter Earth's atmosphere and land, in an emergency.

= = =

Any comments on the t/Space 2 stage pressure fed propane/LOX rocket? And the ultra light fabric seats designed by Jim Voss' students at Auburn University?

#845 Re: Human missions » Rutan:  NASA is Dull » 2005-05-23 20:36:40

What Burt Rutan needs to look at is a flying wing with the "tiles" on the top rather than the bottom. That way it can fly to and from an "airport" like a normal aircraft but needs to make the atmospheric entry upside down. This can be upscaled later to airliner for mass passenger transfer.

t/Space seeks to "avoid" wings. Its a capsule. Nothing more.

#847 Re: Human missions » Russian Klipper or US CEV - why can we not get it done sooner » 2005-05-23 14:52:33

psst- t/space dosen't need NASA.

400 million they asked for. bah!

If they can do ti for 400 million, they can do it on their own.

I know a few buyers, and Bigelow can make a great offer...  big_smile

Exactly.

Yet they do need NASA because of four nasty little letters:

ITAR

#848 Re: Human missions » Russian Klipper or US CEV - why can we not get it done sooner » 2005-05-23 14:28:57

PS - - I predict Rutan & Gump will "BIG FOOT" many alt-spacers out of existence. Who will buy Kistler if Rutan is flying his new crew capsule?

#849 Re: Human missions » Russian Klipper or US CEV - why can we not get it done sooner » 2005-05-23 14:27:18

clark, so does  http://64.78.33.215/index.cfm?fuseactio … 97]t/Space:

t/Space envisions a two-level architecture: diverse vehicles that carry people and cargo between the Earth's surface and low Earth orbit (LEO), and LEO-based vehicles that make the transit to the lunar surface and back to LEO. This split fosters early competition in the Earth to LEO segment, where many companies and nations already have the capacity to put payloads into orbit. Any space-faring entity thus can participate in the Exploration Vision right away. NASA should not build a CEV system that perpetuates the problem of government-owned vehicles dominating a segment where there is no technical or economic reason for them.

Build an all-out bells & whistles CEV that is not designed to land on Earth, except in a BIG emergency. Park it in LEO when its not in use.

If the CEV need not routinely land, it can be BIG!

= = =

The t/Space capsule could also be used for one-way trips to Mars, for settlers. Dock the CVX to an inflatable Mars vessel that aerobrakes into Mars orbit. Drop the colonists via CVX and return the Mars vessel to LEO.

= = =

Taking the Lo road:

Two types of lunar trajectories

Prof. Ed Belbruno of Princeton University and Innovative Orbital Dynamics has developed the trajectories to be used in the t/Space approach. The CEVs will travel in a standard Hohmann transfer from LEO to a highly elliptical lunar orbit, a journey that takes about four days. The tankers will depart on a Weak Stability Boundary transfer that takes about three months. The longer transit time is balanced by lower fuel requirements; in a WSB transfer, the vehicle slips into lunar orbit without burning any significant fuel to decelerate, as the CEVs must. The greater efficiency allows the tankers to deliver more of their fuel to the CEVs, before the tankers take a return WSB transfer back to LEO.



Edited By BWhite on 1116880252

#850 Re: Not So Free Chat » Empire vs Rebel Alliance » 2005-05-23 13:49:50

Is there a  http://www.fortwayne.com/mld/newssentin … htm]lesson here?

= = =

Good relations with wookies? I wonder what the puppies would look like.

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