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I wonder how many people on this board going to enter that contest when it announced?
Or was that a ridiculous question?
:;):Larry,
How many alias ID can we create?
Well, we all seem to have some grasp of how the military build up game is played.
For extra points, can anyone tell me how it ends?
a stick- a sword- a bow- a gun- a cannon- a tank- a plane- a thermonuclear weapon- Mutally Assured Destruction... what comes after that? Besides Mad Max Beyond Thunder Dome?
Well, as the saying goes, World War 4 will be fought with sticks and stones. :;):
But maintaining military superiority is just one factor. Economic and political change follows its own path, and is highly unpredicable. Maintaining a military force that garentees victory removes removes it as a viable path for our enemies to take.
Going bankrupt on weapons we don't need will allow "them" to win without anyone firing a shot.
I wonder how much the Maginot Line cost the French to build?
John Bolton cloture vote fails. Will Bush do a recess appointment?
Odds?
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The Bolton vote delay is over a refusal to release documents.
What is Bush hiding?
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An old joke but here goes. Poor England. Boy George gives 'em two queens with poor taste in clothing.
We can stabilize the place, but we still lose because the final cost will be more than what its worth.
Unless it becomes a focalpoint for changing the entire region for the better. By no means guaranteed, but stranger things have happened.
There are no local tribes that are on "our side" in the long run except the Kurds and they don't want to run all Iraq they just want Kirkuk and to be left alone.
To "win" we need to force the Shia and the Sunni to become friends, and not friends via killing Yanks. How long did the Brits need to solve Ireland?
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http://www.juancole.com/2005/05/sometim … ]Sometimes you are just screwed
Note Juan Cole is NOT advocating just getting out.
f the US drew down its troop strength in Iraq too rapidly, the guerrillas would simply kill the new political class and stabilizing figures such as Grand Ayatollah Sistani. Although US forces have arguably done more harm than good in many Sunni Arab areas, they have prevented set-piece battles from being staged by ethnic militias, and they have prevented a number of attempted assassinations.
In an ideal world, the United States would relinquish Iraq to a United Nations military command, and the world would pony up the troops needed to establish order in the country in return for Iraqi good will in post-war contract bids. But that is not going to happen for many reasons. George W. Bush is a stubborn man and Iraq is his project, and he is not going to give up on it. And, by now the rest of the world knows what would await its troops in Iraq, and political leaders are not so stupid as to send their troops into a meat grinder.
Therefore, I conclude that the United States is stuck in Iraq for the medium term, and perhaps for the long term. The guerrilla war is likely to go on a decade to 15 years. Given the basic facts, of capable, trained and numerous guerrillas, public support for them from Sunnis, access to funding and munitions, increasing civil turmoil, and a relatively small and culturally poorly equipped US military force opposing them, led by a poorly informed and strategically clueless commander-in-chief who has made himself internationally unpopular, there is no near-term solution.
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Perhaps behave as Saddam did in order to maintain security and control of Iraq... but then that would justify another country coming in, since we went in to stop the human rights absue...
You can be firm and strong without being a monster.
Oh, we've lost. It's just a matter of how badly at this point.
That's what I like about you, that boundless optimism and can-do spirit.
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Crap, someone's still fighting us! They've got exploding cars, it's all over!
Which Iraqi groups are really on our side?
To play upon that...
They launch the CXV without a contract, and deliver a bunch of packages to the ISS for Christmas. Did I mention the stevedore is dressed like Santa Claus.
You tellin me NASA is going to turn away Santa Claus?
They get someone to publicly dis' the t/Space program.
Then they launch the CXV with a crew of two, flya few circlles around the ISS, do a spacewalk, then land.
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Hmmm. . .
Maybe I should post $250 and run a short-short or flash fiction contest on this subject.
Is Bob Novak a http://www.suntimes.com/output/novak/cs … ml]traitor?
No - not for Valerie Plame. For this:
''Army recruiting is in a death spiral, through no fault of the Army,'' Krohn told me. Always defending uniformed personnel, he resents hard-pressed recruiters being attacked for offering unauthorized benefits to make quotas. In a recent e-mail sent to friends (mostly retired military), Krohn complained that the ''Army is having to compensate for a problem of national scope.''
The Army's dilemma is maintaining an all-volunteer service when volunteering means going in harm's way in Iraq. The dilemma extends to national policy. How can the United States maintain its global credibility against the Islamists, if military ranks cannot be filled by volunteers and there is no public will for a draft?
Krohn's e-mail describes the problem: ''Consider the implications of being unable to find sufficient volunteers, as seen by our adversaries. Has the United States lost its will to survive? What's happened to the Great Satan when so few are willing to fight to defend the country? Surely bin Laden et al are making this argument, telling supporters victory is just around the corner if they are a bit more patient. And if they're successful, the energy sources in the Mideast may be within their grasp.''
Who is winning the war of attrition in Iraq?
OKay, here is a storyline.
Griffin said alt-spacers need to prove themselves with cargo flights. Fair enough. t/Space flies a CVX filled with cargo and after launch says, by the way we are 500 pounds short because we sent along a stevedore to help unload.
If NASA insists s/he stay aboard the CVX until the supplies are unloaded, so be it. By the way s/he has a video camera
Well, here is my 2 cents...
t/Space knows it isn't in the running. They know they haven't got a snowballs chance in hell (which is why they didn't go for the actual CEV contract). So why the hub-bub, bub?
Because t/Space knows it will do it.
Sheer publicity. Taking a page from ol' Bill.
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They go to NASA, NASA refuses, or funds some small tests, and then come 2008, t/space can either say: "Look, we have a working model that NASA turned down, see how our model is better? Now give us the moon." or, "Elements of our private space ship were vetted by NASA. Come fly with us!"
Besides, if you want to sell a story, what better way than with a David versus Goliath about an underdog who showed up the big boys!
t/space will do this- afterall, 400 million is chump change for what we are taking about.
Well, here is the bet *I* am not willing to make right now:
Will SDV get the green light.
I am not entirely convinced it will, and considering Rumsfeld has the final say (when giving the suggestion to Bush) on SDV versus EELV, I am inclined to believe that the project that employs EELV will win out.
t/space is wonderful, but it ain't NASA. t/space wants ownership, and Griffin has refused (systems integration is being handled by NASA, per Her Griffin's orders).
Sorry Bill.
Very possibly true. That said, certain key elements of the t/Space architecture have been posted to the web and its not bleeding edge technology.
Self pressurizing propane plus LOX? Don't need the Skunk Works to build that.
Rutan's VLA would be more efficient but an old refurbished 747 would work.
That cool lightweight seat was designed by Auburn University undergraduates!
The heat shield materials are off the shelf (IIRC) and much of the elegaqnce in the design is from what is omitted not what is included.
My point? The t/Space concept is out of the bottle and someone, somewhere will do it making EELV CEV obsolete before it flies.
There may be no other way to attack deeply buried targets either, then kenetic energy of an orbital missile is much higher then a hypersonic bomber could achieve, and would be aproaching at a much more favorable angle.
Warfare between civilizations - - which is what we are facing depends more upon long term economic strength.
Standing armies, be they troops or multi-hundred billion dollar space systems are a drag on our economy. Adam Smith knew that perfectly well.
Achieve global space dominance and we will be attacked in assymetrical ways that will render that dominance irrelevant.
But the rods from god are a bad idea. Hair trigger response times have the effect of making people nervous, and they would have limited value for their planned capabilites, and cost too much given their vulnerability. [shrug] Just my perspective.
And a valid perspective it is. There's a distinction here between offensive and defensive weapons and whether they are meant for use in space of from space. A satellite to launch tungsten rods at the ground is very different from one meant to launch metal spheres at another satellite. In the latter case it makes a difference whether it's to destroy another satellite and as a defense for one. None of those systems are ready to build, it remains to be seen what's practical and economical.
It'll get worked out.
We have far more to lose from the actual deployment of such systems than anyone else. Collective security will be enhanced when the rest of the world comes to rely upon space based assets in their economy as much as we do.
Then, no one will tolerate messing with space based commercial assets and their defense becomes a police function.
Military space with the objective of national dominace will fail because our adversaries will choose other modes of attack, such as selling us mega-tons of commercial crap via Wal-Mart produced by low wage workers.
I wonder how much money was made building the Maginot Line?
I have few moral or ethical qualms about weapons in space.
Prudence, however, suggests that the US has more to lose and less to gain from a rapid militarization of space since our economy is more space dependent than any other.
Killing a geo-sync sat is easier than defending it or replacing it and bin Laden has already stopped using his sat phones because someone leaked that we could track his calls that way.
Like Saddam regime change - - its not a bad objective however drawing for the inside straight is just a sucker bet motivated by wishful thinking about our technology.
Yeah, we can achieve space supremacy, no problem. Just give my client $500 billion dollars. Yeah, Mr. Wolfowitz, the Iraqis will greet us with flowers and start buying Ayn Rand books within days of Saddam being gone.
You got an 8 - 10 - J - Q - A?
Raise the bet. Pitch the 8 and I promise you will draw the King!
If t/Space works, its paradigm shattering, no?
And with a $400 million all included development cost, whats the downside of giving them some money to play with? If t/Space fails to deliver a test capsule by the summer of 2008 - - back to Boeing etc. . . and we are still well within the original 2014 timeline.
If it does work we could have some HUGE exploration vessels essentailly hanging "at anchor" in LEO. Build modular style with HLLV lifted building blocks.
Go do some explorin' stuff and then return to LEO and land via CVX, leaving the ship in LEO for future missions. How much can we do for $16 billion per year with that architecture?
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The design work will overlap with the DoD AirLaunch system anyway so why not seek a two for one benefit?
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Uncrewed shuttle derived, including medium lift 5 segment RSRM + LH2 upper stage for CARGO ONLY combined with t/Space crew taxis.
=NO= crew rating for cargo lifters.
BWhite,
Did t/Space say how much there CXV would approximately weigh? And do they keep the possibility open to launch there CXV on an existing vehicle or the Falcon V? And can NASA choose to just let them build the capsule and somebody else a rocket to launch the CXV or do they expect NASA to fund the whole plan?
Air launch appears to be a mission critical element. They say that the propane / LOX engine will not adequately self pressurize at sea level. Also, crew remains in the airplane and do not transfer to the rocket until at altitude. Thus, no escape rocket is needed. Launch from the ground and in the event of malfunction the capsule needs an escape rocket to attain sufficient altitude for the parachute to work.
I know nothing that has not been confirmed by their website except there was an animated video of a laucnh which hepled put all the pieces in perspective. I was told that should be on-line this week.
http://users.wpi.edu/~aiaa/reports/armor.pdf]A paper on using composites to build spaceships to minimize radiation dangers.
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Edit - we need a wiki to warehouse all the cool links that can be found in these threads. . .
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http://www.andrewsullivan.com/index.php … 4355]Koran abuse from official affidavits prepared by US military.
Throwing it on the floor and stepping on it appears to be part of a disapproved but quietly supported process known as "Pride and Ego Down"
If we learn later that Korans actually were flushed does Newsweek deserve an apology?
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More from Andrew Sullivan:
In this case, though, the Bush administration may have gone one step too far. The White House's high profile attack on Newsweek is a good strategy if the underlying story is untrue and will not be verified by future reporting. But if the story is true - and no one has denied it outright - then it will surely come out. No one doubts that there were serious issues about handling the Koran at Guantanamo Bay. A January 2003 memo was created to correct such abuses. Four British Guantanamo former inmates, released without charge, claim abuse of the Koran in a pending lawsuit. A book is due out soon from a former interrogator, spilling more beans. The military has already conceded that some interrogators smeared fake menstrual blood on detainees to offend their Muslim sensibilities, that one Muslim was forcibly wrapped in an Israeli flag and that one soldier brandished a Star of David at a Muslim detainee. Given that these anti-Muslim incidents have been confirmed, why should anyone trust the Gitmo leadership's denial of any wrong-doing?
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http://www.b612foundation.org/]B612 project - - was this the same link as above?
http://es.ucsc.edu/~ward/2004MN4(a).mov]California gest washed down.
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*There have been many statements put out by scientists, published on reputable web sites and in magazines, that this asteroid poses no danger to Earth and will miss us.
But I suppose the issue must be continually hyped.
--Cindy
Not true.
2028 is safe (except maybe some geo-sync sats - but the inclination may make those safe as well).
There remains a finite chance in 2034. Very very slim but finite.
By the way, in 2028, Earth's gravity will cause Minnesota 4 to make a 30 - 35 degree right turn. Now that is COOL!
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Heh! Wonder if anyone figured out whether MN04 might hit the moon.
Add: I sense a story, there. Earth is safe but just as we all breathe a sigh of relief, the Moon gets whacked. Perturbs its orbit, and . . .
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*Overall, I agree with Mad Grad Student's post of December 26, 2004.
There is one astronomy web site which brings this subject up surprisingly frequently. I don't know...maybe it was all those End Times doomsday scenarios in my childhood church which makes me think there's a bit of "much ado" going on.
Why not send down a Mars style rover to get more data on there existence, age, chemical make up and whatever else could be learned in addition to the tracking.
And how much more money would that cost? ??? We've plenty of data on the makeup and properties of asteroids. Perhaps some new/additional data would be gleaned, but enough to justify such a mission?
NASA's budget only stretches so far.
I'd rather some money be kept back to blast the damned thing, if it came down to it. MADMEN mission or something similar.
Meanwhile, I'm not biting my fingernails. Let the trumpets sound and the clouds in the east roll back... :laugh:
--Cindy
Buzz Aldrin wants us to fund a "nudge" mission - - just move it a little to prove we can, if need be.
Ever read "Death in Tehran?"
Dropping a transponder on it isn't a bad idea either.
2034?
Sounds about right on time for our Martian Explorer's to watch home get vaporized....
Not large enough. :laugh:
California gets a 50 foot tidal wave and thats it.
Trillions in damage but no species ending event.
SpaceNut, I attended a presentation by these people at ISDC. So many great things packed into three days!
"Minnesota 4" as they have nick-named 2004MN4 - - will NOT hit the Earth in 2028, however there is a tiny "keyhole" and if MN4 passes through that keyhole in 2028 it WILL hit the Earth in 2034.
That keyhole is less than 1 kilometer long, IIRC.
In 2028, Minnesota 4 will pass within geo-sync satellite altitude and therefore might demolish a multi-billion dollar com-sat.
*America is in grave danger of becoming like that which it hates.
It's already happened. On numerous occasions.
Slavery, income tax, pre-emptive war, socialism, standing armies. . . the idea of America has always been different from the reality. A little internal crusade by self-righteous nuts; wouldn't be the first time.
*Hi Bill. Thanks for posting that bit about Bob Jones. I can't wait for 4 years from now, when the pendulum swings the other way...
One problem we will likely face are a number of innocent people swept up and held in the War on Terror that we cannot now release without grave embarassment to our current Administration.
Yet the longer they are detained, the worse it will get. Therefore I predict pardons being issued by the bushel basket come December 2008.
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Amnesty International has a new report - - it will hit google and yahoo soon, if not already.
Bob Jones - - better stop buying his breakfast sausage. Or is that another Jones? :;):
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D'oh! Its Bob EVANS!
Sorry Bob!
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