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Over at the Astronomy.com forums there's a big thread about manned missions to Mars and everybody in there thinks it will cost nearly a $ trillion to send people to Mars and that there's no reason for going in the first place. I thought hobby astronomers would be more up to date than to refer to the Battlestar Galactica report as the definitive proof that a manned Mars mission will not happen in our lifetimes. I do agree that sending people to Mars would be a waste of time and that robots are cheaper and safer, but I'm shocked that none of those people apparently never heard of Mars Direct or the concept of living off the land. If those people aren't up to date, imagine what the general public must think!
Link to thread:
http://www.astronomy.com/community/foru … PIC_ID=136
Should I be worried about such questions .. or should I get out once in a while, have a few beers and loosen up?!!
You should worry about such questions and guzzle a few beers as you do. Beer and insight sometimes go hand in hand. :laugh: But it's good to see that people here have an open mind. People sometimes takes Einstein's work as holy gospel, that he was infallible. But people used to say that about Isaac Newton until some punk clerk came along and shattered much of Newton's theories. I think we're just looking at little pieces of a big picture we can't see in whole yet and thus all of the strange contradictions and quirks that come up in physics.
From reading some of Howard Scott's ideas, who first coined and defended the idea of Technocracy, he hated the whole idea of money as he believed it was a bad allocator of resources (he thought resources should have been distributed based on more objective factors like energy production, etc.) A lot of his ideas were and still are way ahead of their time and won't be seen unless molecular nanotechnology and artificial intelligence make everything truly abundant and human labor as good as obsolete. I believe, if technology continues to evolve at exponential rates, we will gradually evolve into a Howard Scott style technocracy. Scott though seemed a bit naive on his "political-less" society. Humans and politics will always co-exist.
Tourists and explorers could provide another avenue of income. It's probably safe to assume there will be plenty of people who will want to visit Mars or test their mettle out in the Martian badlands. I think Martians though would be wise to develop an economy that can stand independant of Earth. Political upheavals, bad economies, etc on Earth could compromise the survival ability of Martians.
The California Institute of Technology is one of the best schools for that. They run JPL and are located in an area known for it's aerospace industry. Here's their Lab for Spacecraft and Mission Design page.
A lot of the carbon could probably be extracted from Venus' atmosphere since it's mostly CO2. That might also help to cool the planet down a bit or at least reduce the amount of material you'd need to import.
Good point. Everybody just assume that "winged" means "lifting body."
::EDIT:: It also seems, IMO, that people tend to forget that nature is not all entirely fangs, blood, gore and "I've got mine!" If a baby elephant gets stuck in a water hole, its mother and aunts will try and try (AND TRY) to help it out by pushing their trunks against its rump -- they will trumpet and alert other elephants of the baby being in danger and needing help. Rabbits will thump their paws on the warren to warn the other rabbits of impending danger (they don't just run off with "Well, I'm safe -- screw you guys!"). Mother cats have been known to run in and out of burning buildings, to carry her kittens to safety, etc. Dogs have been known to nurse and care for orphaned kittens, chickens with ducklings, etc. Nature isn't always mean and nasty and full of bone-crunching carnage.
Sorry for breaking the chain of quotes But it's nice to see that there is someone out there who realizes there's more to nature than pure competition and tearing each other limb to limb over every scrap. The way some people talk, it's amazing us humans lived long enough as a species to create laws, prisons, and lawyers to protect us from our innate desire to murder every living being that comes our way. Those people don't seem to realize that early humans relied on cooperation much more than they did bashing each others' skulls to pieces in order to survive. Some philosophers have made good arguements that it wasn't until we had truly powerful full-time elites (supported through sedentary agriculture and division of labor among the masses) that the real blood baths began so the parasitic elites could secure their status, gain wealth, etc. If it's any indication, the few remaining true hunter-gathering societies in the world are very egalitarian and don't have the power trips and willingness to sacrifice other people in their pursuits as us supposedly civilized and enlightened people do.
Which of these design options do you favor the most? I think the capsule would be the simplest and therefore most economical design.
Ouch, figures the message board would screw up when you're writing a time consuming message. :angry: Are you still going to tell us what you said? That "& Humans" part has me dying to know.
What happens though if Mercury misses Venus? Would we suddenly have a giant comet flying around in the inner Solar System threatening to slam into Earth? I've heard of ways to move a planet over a very long timescale using massive asteroids to loop around the target planet occassionally but I'm not sure you could get the process precise enough to get Mercury to slam into Venus.
I think a better way to prep Venus for terraforming would be to put a small version of Clark's sun shutter around it to reduce the sunlight and temperature. It would take awhile for sure but so would moving Mercury into a position to collide with Venus.
Cindy said:
*Hey Free Spirit, what a cool post!
Thank you
*I can only imagine the firestorm of speculation Lowell's theory provoked...wow. To think there was an intelligent race of beings alive on Mars, in a desperate situation. And though (understatement) I'm glad to be in the "here and now" with all the probe data, etc., what we know and see is a barren planet which is not home to humanoid beings.
I wonder how Lowell would have felt if he lived long enough to see that Mars didn't have any busy Martians digging canals to quench their thirsty planet. Would he have lived it down or maybe just found Mars suddenly a lot less interesting? Or maybe he'd be cooking up conspiracy theories about NASA ala Hoagland.
Byron said:
I second that notion as well...if there really had been a "Lowellian" race on Mars, struggling to survive, I think we would have made it to Mars by 1975, helping them out anyway we could...to me, that's no different than helping a country in Africa in the throes of famime.
B
Interesting point. I bet a lot of people would oppose sending aid to Mars on the grounds that we haven't helped everyone down here on Earth yet. But I agree with you that it probably wouldn't have to be an either/or situation.
What if Lowell had been right about the Martian canals, that they were signs of a dying civilization desperately extracting every last drop of water? Would it be ethical for Earth to assist them in anyway it could to save them from extinction or it would it be more wise to follow some kind of "prime directive" and not help prevent their demise? I'm hypothetically assuming that since we can get to Mars but they can't get to our planet, Earthlings would have a technological superiority that could aid Mars (maybe we could send giant tankers full of water, recycling/reclamation equipment, or whatever.)
One danger I can think of is that sending them more advanced technology may enable them to eventually mount a hostile act toward Earth. They might threaten to send an armada of tankers filled with regolith into NYC if we don't send them X,Y,Z. Technology transfer sometimes has unintended consequences. But I'd give the benefit of the doubt and send the help. Prime Directive be damned.
Great modelling work. I'm curious why you put the lander in the nose cone. Are the astronauts going to be receiving friendly guests before they even land? I haven't played Half-Life, so please forgive if that's a stupid question.
Solar panels may have their negatives but do we really want nuclear reactors orbiting the Earth? I can live with sending a nuclear reactor to another planet but I'm not sure I want one that could inadvertently re-enter the Earth's atmosphere and spread contamination.
I have a question about the use of space elevators...
Is there any sort of physical limitation to how fast the individual elevator cars can travel up and down the cable? Considering that "Zero Station" would be something like 36,000 kilometers above the ground; unless the lifts traveled at tremendous speeds, it would take days to travel this distance, just like KSR described in his "Mars" novels. Considering that elevator cabs generally don't have much room, I don't particularily relish the idea of being strapped to a chair for five days or whatever...I think 10-12 hours would be about as much I could stand, which would require a lift speed of about 3000 kph or so.
B
The FAQ at ISR says it would take about a week for a climber to reach GEO. Apparently the first SE isn't being designed to carry people, but rather only cargo. That seems like a logical first step to me. You wouldn't, after all, strap people to the first rocket ever designed without it going through extensive testing.
Supposedly it could launch payloads for a $100kg. Just imagine the possibilities of amateurs designing and launching their own space probes to go to places like Venus. At those types of prices I might try to send my own doomed robot to the surface of Venus since nobody else seems willing to do it. I imagine you could piggy back your cargo on the back of somebody else's. And Shaun, thanks for that wonderful image of being cut in half with a string of carbon nanotubes. I've read a lot of articles on nanotubes but never have I come across a sick thing like that. :laugh:
In addition, a recent report suggests Venus may have remained relatively cool and could have sustained oceans of liquid water for some billions of years after the planet formed. It could easily have developed its own life-forms in that length of time or, failing that, could have imported life from Mars and/or Earth via impact ejecta.
It's time to break out the freon and send some brave rovers to scourage Venus in search of ancient oceans. Even though any surface evidence of oceans has probably long been eroded way or destroyed by the hellish conditions on Venus, perhaps deep cores could provide evidence? Could water still exist deep underground on Venus? If Venus could have held an ocean for billions of years I think that long after Mars and Europa disappoint us for having no life Venus might emerge as the triumphant under dog, at least in the fossil department.
If there is organic matter in venus' atmosphere, than a space probe should be able to test for it or scan for it somehow when entering venus' atmosphere if one ever did go there. I think that the probe could also pick up lightening on it's radio antennas if they were made sensitive enough.
It's a bit criminal that we don't send a big balloon to skim the fringes of Venus' atmosphere to collect data like that. We could send a whole armada of them to passively drift through the atmosphere and send findings back home. We've seen plenty of contests and promotions for designs of Mars missions, I'd like to see a contest that challenges someone to design a long-lived lander (lifespan of weeks or months) for Venus or small probes that just float through the atmosphere.
Any relation to Shaun Barrett? Like you, I've pretty much resigned myself to the reality that NASA shows its worst colors when engaging in human spaceflight. NASA's robotic missions though are a whole different story. NASA shines in that department. It could live up to its credo of "exploring the way only NASA can" if it put less emphasis on sending people into space and more on developing big robotic missions. I'd prefer a giant, well equipped Mars rover or robotic sample return mission any day over another shuttle launch or new ISS modules.
Two of the Venera landers that the USSR sent to Venus were struck by lightning as they decended through Venus' atmosphere. We need to do a repeat of the Venera landings but only better. Those probes lasted about an hour before suffocating under the heat and pressure on Venus. I would love to see a full color panorama of Venus' landscape and cloud cover as opposed to the fish-eye view from the Veneras. Our sister planet gets entirely shafted in the exploration department. Even in this BBC article it mentions that there could be microbial life in Venus' atmosphere.
The evidence Gaians usually cite is how the various natural feedback loops of the planet maintain the environmental qualities needed for life. For instance I've read some Gaians who cite how life has kept the biosphere at average temperatures through the eons even though the sun has grown much brighter over the lifespan of Earth. The more 'theocratic' style Gaians maintain that humans should remain bound to the Earth because we depend on Earth's photosynthetic systems which is somehow construed as evidence that Earth brought us about to be its sentience and therefore we'd be something akin to traitors if we leave it. I don't really understand the latter very well, it strikes me as a stretch of an argument.
Clark, there's no need to "shutter the sun" to send easily seen light signals across the vast blackness of space. See the Harvard Optical SETI site. Manipulating the brightness of the sun might not be very effective anyway because it could be mistaken for a variable star which naturally adjust their brightness levels, sometimes very dramatically. Here's the intro paragraph at the Optical SETI site:
A high-intensity pulsed laser, teamed with a moderate sized telescope, forms an efficient interstellar beacon. Using only "Earth 2000" technology, we could build such a laser transmitter. To a distant observer in the direction of its slender beam, it would appear (during its brief pulse) a thousand times brighter than our sun.
Beginning October 19, 1998 we have been searching for such intense laser pulses, transmitted deliberately in our direction by another civilization in order to initiate communication across interstellar distances.
To those of have read The Case For Mars did you also find it offensive how Zubrin kept glorifying the American expansion across the West without any mention of the hardships frontierism inflicted on indigenous peoples as though they didn't exist in the first place? It was particularly disturbing how he chided European governments for not seeing the "economic benefits" of colonizing the New World earlier than they did (p. 219). Whenever I read through these parts of the book I gave Zubrin the benefit of the doubt and just assumed he hadn't really considered the environmental and genocidal tragedies these settlers actually caused. Below is an excerpt from the book that I think typifies Zubrin's attitude:
Without a frontier from which to breathe new life, the spirit that gave rise to the progressive humanistic culture that America has represented for the past two centuries is fading. The issue is not just one of national loss -- human progress needs a vanguard, and no replacement is in sight.
The creation of a new frontier thus presents itself as America's and humanity's greatest social need. Nothing is more important: Apply what palliatives you will, without a frontier to grow in, not only American society, but the entire global civilization based upon values of humanism, science, and progress will ultimately die. [297]
Thus Zubrin, whether he realizes it or not, is basically saying humanity must keep conquering new territory if it wants to maintain 'progress', that new frontiers in the universe must be found and exploited for the glory of science and humanism. I didn't believe that Zubrin realized how parasitic this would make humanity until I found out he was the only person at a recent exo-biology conference that actually defended the colonization of Mars regardless of whether life exists there or not. Here's what he said:
"First, I think if we find life on Mars, we should go and study it. Secondly, that planet’s potential usefulness for humanity as a future home is clear. We accomplish none of those objectives if we stay away. To say that millions of people from Earth cannot have a planet of refuge from persecution or a planet of opportunity, to have those dreams denied because esthetically it is pleasing that native martian bacteria are left un-intruded upon...that’s just crazy. That is an esthetic position, not an ethical position," Zubrin said.
And thus Zubrin immorally states that life elsewhere is irrelevant if it stands in the way of our "progress." I think it is time for Mars Society members to call into question Zubrin's moral qualifications for being the MS leader and to re-establish the Mars Society as an agency for the peaceful exploration of Mars as opposed to one that advocates brutally conquering and colonizing Mars despite any native life that may live there. And I'll admit that at one time I didn't think that microbial Mars life was much of a moral issue either but have since changed my mind.
Here's a good article on space environmentalism:
Astroenvironmentalism: The Case for Space Exploration As An Environmental Issue
A friend of mine had to have his asteroids removed .. don't know if they used a laser though.
Better lasers than nuclear bombs. :laugh: Come to think of it, I think lasers could prove particularly valuable for interdicting comets since they tend to be very icy. You could just burn off a lot of ice on once side and hope its enough to change its trajectory enough to miss Earth.
Actually of all the ideas of heard for moving an asteroid I think that laser idea is the best one. Maybe putting mirrors on an asteroids surface that would act to heat it up and change its reflectiveness could work.