New Mars Forums

Official discussion forum of The Mars Society and MarsNews.com

You are not logged in.

Announcement

Announcement: This forum is accepting new registrations via email. Please see Recruiting Topic for additional information. Write newmarsmember[at_symbol]gmail.com.

#51 Re: Human missions » Post central for information on CEV 2 - ...continue here. » 2004-09-04 20:35:11

Uhh, we cant even make robots that can drive across the desert without a 100% failure rate.. what makes you think you can make a self-sustaining robot colony ???

#52 Re: Human missions » Opening space to Individual or private industry - Space CHASE Act » 2004-08-25 08:26:13

Cooperation only works when you have a common foe to cooperate against. competition, whether it be between people, businesses, or countries, have acheived *exponentially* more than cooperation.

#53 Re: Human missions » Opening space to Individual or private industry - Space CHASE Act » 2004-08-24 08:50:32

Space organization policies and UN like assemblies are not a bad thing if it has the authority to enforce the Laws or rules governing space activity. But what are the consiquences of breaking the law or of who will pass judgement, who is it's armed forces or police to  make this happen.
This is one of the reasons why the UN does not work in and of its self is the control of power to control or enforce laws is watered down and is not strong enough.

The UN does not work because little POS countries like Swaziland have a much of a say as Germany or even the US in a general assembly!! Libya and Sudan have been on the Human right council in recent months, and Iraq and Iran on the nonproliferation councils!!! dont even get me stared on the UN Oil-for-Guns("food") program, which may have been the biggest scam in human history money-wise! The UN is joke

#54 Re: Human missions » Opening space to Individual or private industry - Space CHASE Act » 2004-08-24 08:45:01

P.S>

The American, Don't have the budget to match, europe if they decide to expand there Space program, with now 20+ Countries and some of the countries come with a high skill, but lower cost base for labour than USA.

And the people of America, want security over space , So it is a perfect time for other space nations to expand their own programs.

It is going to be fun, fun, fun !!!!!!

You must be Joking, right? The US economy is already larger *and* growing faster than the EU25/EU15/Eurozone/etc. and we are already less burdened by a *much* lower tax rate and we have much more income per capita to spare it.

Europe is coming in a pension crisis and cannot even afford a decent military to afford their utopian socialist promises. most EU countries have median ages above 40 (US is 35, EU averag is 40) and some will be above 50 in just a few decades! It is at a point that taxing for anything other than the elderly will dramatically affect their economy and thus, their ability to pay for a space program.

#55 Re: Human missions » Opening space to Individual or private industry - Space CHASE Act » 2004-08-24 08:36:25

I don't think the licensing of space activiteis should be done from any country but from a international body under the control of the United Nations. Made up of one representative from USA, Russia, Europe, Japan, China, and Australia, with three other representative chosen by the UN and rotated every six months. Panel of nine makes decisions by majority  with strict guidelines on bio-sphere and human safety and aherence to global space related treaties. On vessel design, or propulsion system or live support systems or reasons for space activity, only if they conflict with safety issues.

Why do I hae the feeling that this body would become more of a tool to limit the US space rogram and prop p the inferior majority?(like the real UN)

#56 Re: Human missions » Kerry's position on space - any one know were Kerry stands » 2004-08-22 07:16:53

I just realized something! If you take the cost of this war and divide it by the number of americans it comes to $3,000 per person, sweet jesus, that's a lot of money.

..and if you add up all of the the State and federal welfare crap you get about $9000 per person *annually* !!!

#57 Re: Human missions » China The Dominant Superpower In 20 Years..... - What does this mean for US? » 2004-08-22 07:07:17

The only thing the people who are arguing between China and the US being the gorilla of the 21st century will agree on is that the EU is *not* the next big thing. It's a stagnant raft of nationalities. If you're wondering, NAFTA (US-Canada-Mexico free trade zone) already outweighs the EU (12.22 trillion versus 11.50 trillion), and Europe has been growing slower than the US for quite some time, and the EU expects that trend to continue. I certainly expect this trend to continue.

this is all true save for one ver important fact; the US is already larger than the EU, Nevermind NAFTA. it passed it in about 1999-2000
Even with the en new mwmbers it is not larger, it certainly has lessend the gap, but not too much. The ten new members add about 80 million peopple, but bring the economic power of the netherlands with them. The ten new member include such economic heavyweights as malta, Cyprus and Lithuania...

The EU15 have an economy of about 10.5 Trillion, and the US is 11.0 Trillion; The ten new members add about 3-400 billion.

http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/48/4/30539 … 539246.pdf

Interesting enough, the EU has been adding new members fast enought to keep up with the US economy for quite some time, with Austria, Finland and Sweden in 1995, and Spain Greece and Portugal in the 80s.

Considering theat FY04 has already ended, The US grew 4.78% versus he EU25s ~1.8% mking the US economy now 11.7 trillion itself. The US has higher Productivity combined with higher populaion growth. Even the EU's own studies hae found that because of population shrinking and ageing that Europe's share of the world economy with have halved by 2050, even wih 5 new members, while the US' share will have *grown* from 23 to 26%.

#58 Re: Human missions » China The Dominant Superpower In 20 Years..... - What does this mean for US? » 2004-08-22 06:45:30

In the end they'll end up something like Japan, a valuable economic powerhouse and ally.

or else we could end up with a North and South China one communist, likely the south would be free, and the north not.  That would not be too good.

And the fact that a Chinese civil war could kill probably tens of millions, but freedom is not free.

#59 Re: Human missions » Master of AI » 2004-08-22 06:39:24

The man who commmented on the difficulty of programing AI is true. To program a Robot with the intelligence of a man would probably take a team of one million programmers decades to write all of the minutia, that is AFTER hey have R&Ded enough the processes of the mind to actually *know* what to write, which could sstill taake cenuries!

The pace of programming has not keep even with the pace of hardware advances in the slightest.

#60 Re: Human missions » sdf » 2004-08-18 10:52:09

Those Country breifings are interesting tools arent they wink

On demographics:

Earth in 2050: Expect 9 billion humans
Report sees U.S. population rising while Europe slowsThe Associated Press
Updated: 10:00 a.m. ET Aug. 17, 2004WASHINGTON - Many of the world’s largest industrialized nations will lose population between now and 2050 as low birth rates, struggling economies and curbs on immigration stifle growth, says the author of a world population report.

The annual study by the private Population Reference Bureau found that, while the world’s population will increase nearly 50 percent by mid-century, Japan will lose 20 percent of its population in the next 45 years, while Russia, Germany and Italy will also see declines.

United States is the biggest exception among developed countries, with its population forecast to rise by 43 percent from 293 million now to 420 million at mid-century.

Still, most of the world’s population growth will come in developing nations, even though these less developed countries generally have much higher rates of HIV and AIDS infections and infant mortality.

China, currently the world’s most populous nation at 1.3 billion, would see an overall 10 percent increase between now and 2050 to over 1.4 billion in 2050, but its peak population is anticipated to be reached by 2025 with declines thereafter.

India expected to top China
By 2050, India is expected to overtake China, rising almost 50 percent from under 1.1 billion now to 1.6 billion at mid-century. Nigeria’s population is expected to nearly triple in size to 307 million, while Bangladesh would double to 280 million.


The trends could change further depending on the how successful doctors are in treating AIDS infections and reducing infant mortality rates and, how prevalent contraceptive use and family planning become in developing nations.

“This only tends to accentuate the opposite poles of population growth you have in industrialized and developing countries,” said Carl Haub, author of the report by the bureau, which does population research and is supported by government, foundation and other grants.

The report says the world population should rise 45 percent to nearly 9.3 billion by mid-century, on par with similar projections from the United Nations and the U.S. Census Bureau.

While the population of developed countries would rise 4 percent to over 1.2 billion, the population in developing nations would surge by 55 percent to over 8 billion. Countries in Africa and south Asia would see the largest increases.

Tale of two countries
Haub highlighted Nigeria and Japan as examples of two countries heading in different demographic directions. About 44 percent of Nigeria’s population today is younger than 15, while just 3 percent is older than 65. Nigerian women typically give birth to almost six children over their lifetime.

Japanese women, on average, give birth to just over one child in their lifetime. While 14 percent of the Japanese population is younger than 15, 19 percent is older than 65.

“Clearly, Nigeria has millions of young people to educate and employ. Vast investments are needed to provide a higher quality of life for Nigeria’s growing population,” he said. “Japan must find ways to take care of more and more retired people and still maintain an adequate work force.”

There are recent signs that Japan’s economy may be on the upswing, though a Japanese government report last year suggested that stronger measures were necessary to encourage people to have more children and to make domestic markets more attractive to foreign investors.

Having younger residents is often seen as a good indicator not only for future population growth, but as a tax base to support programs for the aged. In a rough parallel to the Social Security program’s challenges in the United States, a growing number of retirees in Japan has been consuming the nation’s huge savings pool.

Europe's aging issue
Meanwhile, many European countries with aging populations have sent out conflicting messages of seeking more workers while blocking out immigrants, the U.N. Population Division has said. The issue has sparked political debate in Austria, France and the Netherlands.

Societal norms play a role as well in many countries, Haub said. He highlighted Italy, where many young men live at home with parents until their late 20s because it is less acceptable to live with someone and raise a family out of wedlock.

As a result, many young Italians either don’t get married or leave the country entirely, Haub said.

Italy’s population was expected to decrease 10 percent to 52 million in 2050.

The population projections were based on data from foreign governments, the United Nations and the U.S. Census Bureau.

© 2004 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

#61 Re: Human missions » China The Dominant Superpower In 20 Years..... - What does this mean for US? » 2004-08-18 08:51:36

The thing is, China only needs to become as rich as Taiwan or South Korea to become much more powerful than the US, simply because there are so many Chinese people.  China's "demographic gray meltdown" won't happen until decades after the US experiences a similar meltdown, and when their economy hits a "bump", it usually just means that it is only expanding slightly faster than the US economy does in a boom.

Which is easier said than done. As a matter of fact the US is practically the *only* western nation that will not melt down(Ireland, Canada and Australia are not in bad shape). yeah we have a boomer problem, but Europe and Japan have this *with* a rapidly shrinking population and even faster shrinking workforce. The US has the highest birthrates of any western power *and* Immigration.

esa.un.org/unpp

Select "constant fertility' and "median age" in panel 2.

The US will have a younger median age than China in 2050.
Most European nations and Japan will have them over 50!!
Right now the US population is growing faster than China's and will hit 425million in 2050 and China will begin to shrink form 1.4 billion in 2030 to 1.3 billion.

The US has large and rapidly growing debts, both internally and externally, in addition to an aging population.  Surely some of the world's other countries can do better than that?

The US has smaller deficits and neational debts relative to the size of it's GDP than both the EU and Japan.

Go to http://www.economist.com]www.economist.com country breifings. US deficit is 4% Japan is nearly 8% and France and Germany both are 4%.
Japans debt as a % of GDP is 155%!!! the US is 62% and France 69%. THe EU average is 68%. The percentages play out t so that the absolute vlaue of the sum of their debt is larger than the US. and Japan, while now only about 40% our size, has a natiuon debt of $7 trillion that will pass ours as well. China is also running a 5% deficit but can outgrow it.

The US is in much better shape to outgrow it's debt, than Japan or Europe. The US has been, and will continue to grow twice as fast as both at least. The US deficit was larger as a % of GDP but the % of GDP that is national debt grew faster in Europe with it's averaged 3% deficit because their economy is sucking wind.

#62 Re: Human missions » China The Dominant Superpower In 20 Years..... - What does this mean for US? » 2004-08-17 16:26:09

Do any of you know what you are Talking about?

China is seriously the most overhyped country on the face of the planet, and their economy while growing fast is nearing that same point that Japan was in the late 80s.

In real GDP, not the fake 3rd-world overinflating PPP, Chinas REAL economy is smaller than Italy's and California's.

The US economy is 11 Trillion, and Industry is ~20% of it meaning $2.2 Trillion, larger than China's entire economy. That Figure, In itself is overinflated as well, as it INCLUDES Taiwan; a Nation with a $300 billion GDP. So the PRC's real economy is TEN TIMES smaller than ours. China is 45%. China's light industry(stocking-stuffers, digital camreas) Is impressive, but the heavy industries are no match for the west. China's car production barely tops south Korea, a coutry 24 times smaller than it.

Even on a GDP-PPP(which is crap and almost worthless)  scale China's economy is half our size and If China can somehow keep it's unsustainable growth rates up it would still take 20-30 years to EQUAL ours, and you will find NO economist who will say that China

So Industrially on a world scale it is $450 billion vs. 2.2 trillion.

The truth is, is that industrial performance is becoming less and less important in the 21st century. We are in the mist of a major transition into an Information/Technology Economy just as the agrarian economies passed into industrial ones in the 1800s.

There is class strife brewing as well, ALL of the economical growth has come from the 200-300 million on the industrial west coast the other 1 billion peasant farmers are becoming relatively more and more poorer, which could very well lead to civil unrest.

Chinese financials are in even worse shape now than Japan's were in the Late 80s. There is MASSive overcapacity, and Bad loans total $500 billion dollars, about 40% of China's GDP! Investment is $660 billion, about 200 more than China can actually beneift from and China's deflation is turning to inflation, which is all bad news as China is a overheating economy, even worse so than Japan was...

If China growth does not slow down soon, China will go Kaboom. Japan is still in  a recession from it.

#63 Re: Human missions » Bush and Mars and Re-election - Bush and Mars and Re-election » 2004-06-05 11:57:47

"2005's budget allocates some ~380 billion out of 2.4 Trillion"

Did you even look at the graph I posted?
Am I going to need to summon the US federal budget?

Welfare+SS+Medicaid+other entitlement go to more like 1.2 trillion, NOT including state programs.

#64 Re: Human missions » Bush and Mars and Re-election - Bush and Mars and Re-election » 2004-06-04 20:26:26

"Democrats want to pour money into social programs? Is that so terrible? I mean, we only spend 1/6 of the budget, our tax dollars, on domestic programs maybe it could use a little more. "

1/6th??? BWAHAAHAAA
http://www.singmind.com/singleminded/da … getout.gif

Are you living in 1923?

#66 Re: Human missions » Delta IV Superheavy? - would it be possible? » 2004-05-29 18:58:30

Would it be possible to mount 4 boosters on a delta 4(as opposed to 2 on a Delta 4 Heavy) and make a Delta 4 superheavy with a ~42000lb load?

perhaps for use with the CEV?

#67 Re: Human missions » Space shuttle variants - Options? » 2004-02-01 08:16:14

Yep with that tonnage we could've probably built a "2001" giant wheel space station...

#68 Re: Human missions » Can we finish the ISS - using Delta IV Heavy? » 2004-01-19 10:04:02

Actually, the payload for the Shuttle has been reduced to 24.4 tons. now the Delta IVH can throw up *more* than the space shuttle! for like 3-4 times less money no less...

#69 Re: Human missions » Post central for information on CEV - iformation station for the spacecraft » 2004-01-18 07:36:20

I bet that this craft will use the Delta IV familiy of Rockets. Depending on how much 'extras' are added to it, it could use up to the Delta IV heavy.

#70 Re: Human missions » Bush's vision : at least a start? - is it a step in the right direction? » 2004-01-15 13:19:52

"Chinia thinks it can do it for less."

Of course they can, China has manipulated the Yuan so low it can do anything cheaper.

#71 Re: Human missions » Bush's vision : at least a start? - is it a step in the right direction? » 2004-01-15 13:18:19

"Dean's stance seems to change with the phases of the  moon, I think he's for a manned space program but feels that to acknowledge that now would be bad for his campaign run. Did he come out for Mars direct at one time??"

Dean doesnt Change as much as Kerry.. shesh.. for the war against it, for it again, now against it again...

I dont really know; In the debates they all spoke maliciously of it. Like only "going to find WMD" and we should all have more handouts instead.

#72 Re: Human missions » Bush's vision : at least a start? - is it a step in the right direction? » 2004-01-15 09:56:58

Or some penny pinching Democrat will cancel it altogether for more handouts?

What ever happened to the JFKs in the Democrats; almost all of the 9 dwarfs running now think it is a bad idea....

#73 Re: Human missions » Post central for information on CEV - iformation station for the spacecraft » 2004-01-15 08:34:10

lets try to centralize and consolidate our info on this; post any new info you have for this here in this message.

#74 Re: Human missions » Launcher Costs? » 2004-01-15 08:15:38

The rising Euro will probably make Ariane 5 launche more expensive than Delta Ivs.

#75 Re: Human missions » Russia can send Man to Mars by 2014:official - at one-tenth the NASA budget » 2004-01-15 08:00:34

This is BS of the highest order.

Sometimes I think that some people here think that Russia is still the USSR.

Do you guys have any Idea how poor Russia is now? their GDP is smaller than Australia and the Netherlands... It is also samaller than our Military Budget; Russia's *entire Economy*...

They are going to need bigger Sponsors than pizza hut to put these rockets in the air. how many time has we bailed them out on the ISS? Their economy is 1/30th our size fer chrissake...

Board footer

Powered by FluxBB