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I'm calm
Yet, if these things are so valuable, and so obvious WHY hasn't HighLift already raised $100 billion in venture capital?
Because the elevator is complicated, people have never seen anything like it, and don't think that it will ever exist outside of science fiction.
Think about it: the stock market is a risky investment, what does that make the elevator?
In addition, people don't want to wait 10-20 years for a return on their investment, on a concept that they're not sure of.
LEO labs? To make what? ballbearings?
First of all, the elevator could launch to any orbit. Second of all, biotech labs in orbit would be extremely useful to do studies of diseases and treatments in zero-G. A lot of companies would probably kill for the chance to do this. Remember that Columbia's treasure on board before the tragedy was the cancer samples that it had studied.
There are likely many other fields of science that would also love to study phenomena in zero-G as well.
Orbital shipyards are another possibility, as well as the materials to get there.
Or to construct interplanetary spaceships that don't have to waste fuel getting past the gravity well of Earth. Or to launch telescope arrays to the Moon and to the deep Solar System.
Or to launch payload for launch missions repeatedely, and cheaply, so the initial launch doesn't have to be the only source of materials the mission has to deal with.
There are any number of applications for the space elevator.
To put that into perspective, Bill, the Shuttle launch system is over 2 million kg, only 33% less mass than what you are talking about sending up to orbit.
And the elevator also has the potential to send cargo to other celestial bodies as well (anything in the solar system, in fact).
In addition, I would charge more for cargo, because companies are already spending $5,000/kg and up to send their cargo to orbit. Let's say a biotech company decided to launch a 20 tonne lab to orbit (20,000 kg). Then, they need to supply it with people and supplies. The lab itself would cost $10 million to launch. Then, charge $20,000 round trip per person, who could possibly stay up for months. Our real business is supplying the crew with food, clothes, etc, which we charge $500/month for.
Bill, I just did some research, and according to the NASA elevator report, the CNT weighs 7.5 kg/km. This means the ribbon is 750,000 kg. However, a large portion of that is deployed, as clark mentioned, by the runners themselves. It would only take 7 boosters to deploy the ribbon until the rest could be completed by the elevator itself.
How much does the elevator weigh? How do you get that weight up to LEO?
I don't have a figure off-hand, but CNT is extremely light (I know this isn't a CNT topic, but it almost has to be considered), and is thousands of times longer than it is thick. The ribbon would be extremely light. The Highlift estimate is 7 booster launches to deploy the ribbon, which is then extended by their own capsule launches.
I thought the satellite market was already glutted with excess capacity. How many LEO sats does humanity really need?
Observatories, ISS cargo, new modules, perhaps (due to the lower cost) private orbital development. The problem is we don't know what extent that an immense drop in payload costs like this will spur the market.
Is the market weak because it is too expensive, or is it weak because there is no interest (which may be because of the cost)?
Let us assume that the elevator will cost $100 billlion to R&D, build and deploy. I believe this is wildly optimistic yet lets use $100 billion as the price tag for a functional space elevator.
Your problem is right there. According to reasonable numbers, the first elevator will cost $10 billion to R&D and deploy.
Since there is no real fuel, only a laser array, per kg costs are $100/kg. So let's say it costs a person $200/kg to go up (at a huge profit). The average person is ~65 kg. It will cost them about $10,000-12,000 (as you estimated).
If 833,000 people a year went up, the costs would be covered. This is only 54,000 tonnes of "payload." The first Highlift elevator is designed for 30 tonnes a shot, at least twice a week.
We could generate at least $12,000,000 a month in revenue sending people up. In 100 months (~9 years), the costs would be covered, with a bit extra.
But people is not where the initial revenue of the elevator will come from. It will come from satellites, and similar objects. Companies currently pay $5,000/kg and up to send things to orbit. So we charge $500/kg. This is more than double the "people" cost, so we would have a profit within 5 years.
Subsequent elevators would cost on the order of $1 to $2 billion to deploy. These costs may be lessened by joint contracts and so on. These could see profits much sooner, as the R&D would be complete, and the capacity would be higher.
Remember, the only real R&D left is the CNT.
Freighters for people, new supplies, seed factories, power reactors, deuterium transfer, etc.
I was thinking fusion in terms of the speed it could get, probably far surpassing solar in the distance between Earth and Mars.
John: I wasn't so much talking about cyclers as freighters, that carry cargo back and forth, never descending lower than orbit.
They refuel on-orbit, so they don't need to stop, and can use a gravity assist to place themselves onto a trajectory for the destination. Orbital rendezvous with a fuel tanker can be timed either prior or during the mission.
I realize that this type of vessel might need to wait for more advanced propulsion systems (perhaps fusion) for application, and that the launch windows would be limited to a ~3-6 month range, but the concept is heavy freighters that can refuel and turn around.
Please do. Show also that it's done with ~45% of the starting mass in HEO being cargo delivered to the destination.
Show that, contrary to all the design studies to date, it can have above 10,000 second isp, and high thrust, with technology readily understood in the '60s, and improved upon today. No contained/controlled plasma, no high temp superconductors in close proximity to plasma.
When did I ever say 10,000 seconds of isp? And when did I say it needed plasma?
250,000 lbs of thrust is, what, peanuts?
The Earth escape velocity from orbit is ~5 km/s. So, let's check our rocket equation:
1-(e^(5000/9800)^1/x)
The payload ratio that is left is slightly above 40%.
With an exhaust velocity of 9800 m/s, you can expect speeds of about 18,000-20,000 m/s (or 1.8-2 km/s). This equates to a 6 week travel time to Mars.
Robert, your comment about American violence leading to its birth is ridiculous. America was far more important to England than America, and it was more unfairly treated as well. Britain wanted to put down the American "threat," Canada, on the other hand, posed no threat, and was released when the British were tired of the Western Hemisphere.
Our birth came through English violence, which we responded to in kind.
clark: That's what I was getting at when I said "The Company" had better mean multiple competing companies, that can't dominate the market and force unfavorable conditions down the consumers' throats.
Josh, once again, I will quote myself:
"If the central banks removed their gold reserves, the gold backing would no longer exist. It is really quite simple."
Weren't you paying attention? Here, let me copy and paste it for you:
" Because banks hold gold in reserve, as a second resort to the dollar. As the value of gold changes, so does the value of currency and commodities."
The gold value is still the basis for the price of commodities and currencies. It is not just another commodity. This is economic ignorance.
Banks still use gold as a reserve for currency, and thus, gold is still the unofficial standard of the economy. If the central banks removed their gold reserves, the gold backing would no longer exist. It is really quite simple.
Please, don't believe me, ask any economist.
I never stated such a thing.
This whole thread has seen you say that guns only need light training. That statement goes against everything you've been saying all thread.
That sounds fine, various economic systems can exist in the vicinity of the city, which would probably be dependent on trade with Earth (and so, would most likely be corporate/capitalist, surrounded by farm kibbutz type "villages" and perhaps factory domes).
The spaceport can grow into a major city (for example, New York city growing from Ellis Island immigration) by attaching domes as immigration increased. Perhaps a residential, commercial, etc. dome. "The Company" may, in each case, be a varied mix of competitors. In fact, this is almost a necessity. What if the Mars Supply Company goes down? We better have Martian Supply Co. B to provide our supplies!
I would like to add, if an employee is to be fired, he must get at least a 1-2 month notice. This is because all of his basic necessities are being provided by the company, so they will need time to find a new home, food provider, etc.
So you would rather reduce the regulations on guns, so that any criminal can walk in a store and buy a gun, no questions asked?
Public access fatal weapons! All the criminals have to do now is buy the cop-killer bullets.
I take it you've never visted the Detroit area. The traffic is horrendous in many areas. While I've never been to New York I can safely say from personal experience that overall Detroit has heavier traffic than Chicago or D.C. and Everyone I know whose been to New York did not find it any worse.
Actually, I have been to Detroit. In my experience, NYC is worse. It can take well over an hour to get a few city blocks over.
If you want to think of a violent criminal as a child simply because he's a few months under 18 that's your call, but most people won't agree.
Why even bother calling him a child? The fact is, that the likelihood that the person would have died without the gun's intervention is very slim. And that's the point, here.
Um, which environment are we talking about here? Obviously this is true if you're talking about enclosed habitats (CELSS is a relationship between humans, plants and technology), but I figure you're probably talking about the Earth's ecosystem as a whole.
Yes, I was, in response to this quote:
"Certainly. It's siliness. As long as I'm alive, that is, my systems are functioning and I'm getting nutrition and so on, it doesn't matter where or what my environment is.
You are arguing that there are several levels of ?aliveness.? Though it may be true or whatever, this is the exact same argument environmentalists make."
Since the environment includes all the biomes on Earth, which you now intend to somehow dome, while burying the water, your nutrition would wilt away fairly quickly.
The question, though, is the appeal of those hills necessarily reliant on the life that lives on or in them? If you take a picture of a rockey hill, do the unseen bacteria and insects make that hill more appealing? Make that hill more alive?
On the large scale, yes. Because without all of these unseen life forms, the food chain would fall apart, and humans would be left without anything to eat.
You get way more sunlight, and with the atmosphere stripped away, you can exploit it all.
Why would you ever strip the atmosphere away?
That's a myth. If you look at the data that statement is so far off the mark that it can't possibly be attributed to anything but outright fabrication. This sort of propaganda is put out by the same people who take statistics of rival 17-year-old gang members killing each other in turf wars and referring to it as "children killed by guns" rather than criminals killing each other with guns.
Those are children killed by guns. I don't remember the last time I stood by somebody and said "bang" resutling in their deaths.
Yet far more people die in auto accidents than firearms related incidents.
Well that's obvious, and expected. Far more people own cars, and operate them every day, than own and operate guns. A much smaller percentage (a much better barometer) of car owners end up dead or wounded as a result of accidents than gun owners.
Cars serve a practical purpose, guns are plain and simple, meant to injure, kill, or nullify another person (or for an exception, to hunt).
Guns aren't that complex, it's a simple piece of machinery. The basics don't take much time to explain.
As for the driver's license analogy, the requirements are rather arbitrary. While you cite the above requirements, those in my state are significantly more lax, yet Michigan's auto accident rate is no worse than the rest of the country.
Usually, the states with more crowded roads are more stringent. Come to New York City, and see how a newly lisenced Michiganian driver fares. Detroit is nowhere near as crowded as the New York Metro area.
Think of it like this: Software companies continually increase the copy-protection on their products, yet the cracks always follow the offical release by weeks, sometimes days. Nothing they do will ever stop software piracy. Same basic concept.
So you're saying that Microsoft should remove any copyright protection, so anybody can just pirate the software if they have a CD-RW drive? Sorry, not buying it.
In that case, we shouldn't teach the little stoners to drive either.
No, stoners can work. People hardly ever use a car as a killing tool (intentionally). A gun, now that's quite different.
I take it you've never known anyone who has escaped becoming a victim because they had a gun. A weapon serves a very practical, but fortunately not everyday purpose.
I take it you don't know that the chances of getting shot with your own gun are at best, roughly equal to the chances of the gun saving the owner.
First, gun training isn't that hard or time-consuming. We're not talking about advanced calculus here, it could be done in as little as one or two classes.
Enough kids have trouble learning to read and write. And I would hope that something as dangerous as a gun would require more than 2 or 3 classes. A driver's lisence requires two years of driving, and 30 hours of drivers ed, plus a road test.
Are you going to tell me that you would hold guns to a lighter standard than cars?
It just occured to me that gun safety and basic markmanship could be taught in public schools.
Do you know how many kids are drug addicts in schools? Go ahead, teach them how to use guns, and make the situation that much worse!
No, driving serves a practical, everyday purpose. Unless you hunt, or happen to be next to your gun as a robber enters your home, and pick it up before they do, there is no real reason to weigh high school students, already burdened with getting into college, with gun training. A car is needed to get to work. What purpose could a gun possibly serve the general high school student?
Shift and squirm? No. It's an economic fact, which I have been saying in no uncertain terms, that the price of commodities and currency is still based on gold. Why? Because banks hold gold in reserve, as a second resort to the dollar. As the value of gold changes, so does the value of currency and commodities.
The gold standard was removed in the 1970s, and didn't eliminate the dollar as currency. Game over, you lose.
So you think this is a black and white game? Try taking an economics course. The gold standard doesn't have to be official to exist. You're talking nonsense. The government can't say it's gone and it vanishes, especially when their own banks are backed by gold!
It makes your original statement meaningless, since it's evident that removing the gold standard will never happen in your judgement.
No, the gold standard will be removed when our banks stop using gold reserves to back the dollar, and gold is no longer the measure of currency value and commodity prices!
I did refute you. You're just too immature to handle it.
Whatever!
:angry:
3 months! Wow! It's not like you wouldn't have anything to do. You could have game rooms stocked with supplies, excercise rooms, etc.
Even if it weren't spinning, EVA's would waste space, time, and expose the crew to radiation they don't need. There's no reason to include EVA's in the mission plan, they'll have plenty of time for Mars walks later.
Whatever. If you'll never accept that gold isn't the basis of our currency, your condition for abandoning the dollar will never happen, so this whole discussion is pointless.
Wow, whatever. A priceless argument! I still hold, as has been shown through economics, that the gold price still determines the flow of the economy. Take away the gold foundation, and the economy collapses. If you care to actually refute me with something other than "whatever" please do.
The economy is still based on the value of gold, so, as I said before, the gold is, in a practical sense, still the standard for our economy. Currencies and commodities adjust to the price of gold-ask any economist.
We still run on gold, whether or not it is the official standard of our economy.