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#6451 Re: Human missions » Space X to Lead Mars Consortium? » 2012-05-15 19:42:41

Mark Friedenbach wrote:

louis, what exactly do you mean/envision by "consortium"? Or "Consortium" (big-C)?

Ideally, I think it would have NASA-Space X at its core who would joint with other partners - perhaps Bigelow, ESA, Jaxa, ISA and others, and would maybe also bring in some big name philanthropists who could stump up a billion or so.  You'd be looking for a division of labour: NASA providing coms, rovers and general consultancy, Space X providing rockets and landers, Bigelow providing habitats maybe ESA doing Mars satellites.

I'd like to see a Consortium Board set up who would oversee a mission aimed at establishing a permanent human presence on Mars.

The Consortium Board in turn would appoint a Mission Directorate and approve a mission plan, which might focus on establishing a permanent base of perhaps 200 people within 20 years.

#6452 Re: Human missions » To Mars in 2018? » 2012-05-15 19:35:32

GW Johnson wrote:

If somebody was working on a real Mars lander,  we could easily go that soon. 

But we do need that lander.  What's the point of sending men to Mars,  if we don't land?

GW

An interesting question. Why did they do Apollo 8? Was it simply a PR exercise or was there a purpose to it?

Of course, with a Mars mission, doubling up the zero G time is probably not a good idea. Landing will probably reduce the risks to human health.

#6453 Re: Human missions » Space X to Lead Mars Consortium? » 2012-05-15 18:58:57

Grypd wrote:
Mark Friedenbach wrote:

Impaler, you appear to have a good understanding of legal principles, but not this particular law and the later ratified treaties which clarified or expanded it (such as the Space Liability Convention) or the many existing legal briefs about them. There is, for example, a huge distinction between claims of sovereignty and property. For example, under the U.S. government's current interpretation of the OST, if a U.S. company launches a mining operation on the moon, Mars or asteroid, that facility of sovereign U.S. territory, and the resources which pass through that facility become the legal property of the individual or organization which owns the facility. The U.S. government reserves the right at its option (if it had the capability) to send a hypothetical "Space Coast Guard" to protect the private activities of its citizens in space, and enforce rights of ownership and contract. This is unambiguously true in the current interpretation of the law.

The U.S. government also reserves the right to recognize private land claims, and to similarly enforce them. Note that this is demonstrably different from claiming sovereignty, which is what is prohibited by the OST! This would require an act of congress, but would not require renegotiation of any international treaties.

Mark claims of sovreignty are not allowed we all apart from louis understand this. But the problem in your scenario is that International law differs on just what you use those resources that are mined for. If it is to help fuel a vehicle to further a mission then it comes down to the benefit of Mankinds knowledge. If though it is to garner resources for making profits then there will be court cases and since they will use existing similar law (The law of the sea as an example) to inform the case. The likehood is that the US would lose.

#Grypd,  please don't misrepresent what I am saying. I am not saying claims of sovereignty on celestial bodies are allowed under the OST. I am saying commercial activity and rational licensing of land use are not prohibited and are implied by the fact that the signatories have to take responsiblity for the actions of private persons including businesses.

More generally, I think the OST is quite unfit for the task of regulating the exploration of space. It was of its time when the military use of space was a pressing concern. That's what it was about really.

HOwever, I don't think the UN or anyone else is up to the task of producing a good successor treaty. The best outcome will be a Space X led consortium leading the way and setting good precedents.

#6454 Re: Human missions » To Mars in 2018? » 2012-05-15 13:57:26

Thanks guys - looks like the Sunday Times took a "could" and made it a "will".

#6455 Re: Human missions » Space X to Lead Mars Consortium? » 2012-05-15 13:55:27

Impaler wrote:

I'm sorry but 90% of what people are speculating about in this thread is just Bunk.  The 1976 Space treaty is not ambiguous as to private ownership of outer space, first off the treaty binds all signatory nations to not allow their nationals and legal entities (corporations) to violate the treaty either.

Article VI
States Parties to the Treaty shall bear international responsibility for national activities in outer space, including the moon and other celestial bodies, whether such activities are carried on by governmental agencies or by non-governmental entities, and for assuring that national activities are carried out in conformity with the provisions set forth in the present Treaty. The activities of non- governmental entities in outer space, including the moon and other celestial bodies, shall require authorization and continuing supervision by the appropriate State Party to the Treaty. When activities are carried on in outer space, including the moon and other celestial bodies, by an international organization, responsibility for compliance with this Treaty shall be borne both by the international organization and by the States Parties to the Treaty participating in such organization.

Right their in black and white, non-governmental agencies are MORE restricted because they are both bound the same restrictions as governments AND they can do nothing without their host government's "authorization and continuing supervision".  If the US government through NASA can't do an activity which would violate the treaty then it can not authorize someone else to do it either.  The US can authorize anything which is treaty compliant but if their is a dispute over this activity it is by definition and international dispute and not something any one government can dictate.

Antarctica is not actually the best Earth-side analogy for the Moon and Mars because most of Antarctica is 'nominally' claimed by government but all the claimant governments mutually agreeing to treat Antarctica as a Scientific commons without renouncing any of their claims.  The appropriate analogy for Space is that of International waters, which have never been claimed and are never can be, the space treaty firmly places space in this category.  But it IS legal to profit from international waters because an international legal regime has been created to govern it, a UN agency grants mining leases to large areas of the ocean floor for the purpose of Manganese nodule harvesting.  Several leases have already been made to various corporations and they will have to pay mining royalties for this.  The US is the only nation that hasn't joined the seafloor mining treaty but even the Bush administration had been willing to do so and it's established international law.

A similar convention for space mining is the most likely long-term outcome.  Anyone actually serious about Asteroid mining should be clamoring for this kind of legal regime not indulging in libertarian fantasies of going out and making extra-legal claims to any moon or asteroid.  I HOPE their are enough serious people within the space enthusiast community to create advocacy and public preshure for proper treaties and they can squelch the childish American space-libertarians camp.


You're not persuading with that case.

Firstly, there is no reason why a tiny dirt poor country wouldn't "authorise" a huge space corporation (whose turnover might be bigger than the country's GDP).  So there we have a flag of convenience situation. The idea that the company will be tied up in red tape is nonsense.

Secondly, the maritime boundary used to be 3 miles now it's more often 200 miles or more if I remember correctly.  Those changes came about as a result of de facto declarations in defiance of international law. So - not a very good example.

Thirdly, no one I know is talking about making a claim to a celestial body. But there is nothing in the OST which stops asteroid mining. Where there is silence there is permission.

Lastly, I don't think you are right about the Antarctic Treaty. It never made the Antarctic an exclusively scientific commons. The treaty made clear that other peaceful purposes apart from scientific ones (but not military ones) were allowed; "scientific research or for any other peaceful purpose".   Digging coal is a perfectly peaceful purpose. However, I believe that various subsequent protocols have effectively ruled out commercial exploitation. 

And a PS - there is nothing in the OST that disallows a self-governing community to form on a celestial body.

#6456 Re: Human missions » Space X to Lead Mars Consortium? » 2012-05-15 13:36:42

Impaler wrote:

Grypd:  Whats your source for this legal opinion that the OST can be circumvented by this kind of transnational finagling? 

The way I read it the Isle of man (or some other hypothetical non-signatory state) would need to make a territorial claim on the moon first and THEN grant property rights to the private party.  The US or any signatory state would then be recognizing the Isle of man's territorial claim to the moon not the private parties property rights and this recognition MIGHT be permissible under the treaty but it would not bind any other nation either signatory or not to recognize the Isle of mans claim.  I don't see the major Space faring nations going out of their way to aid 'flag of convenience' nations in laying claim to space while refraining from making their own claims.  If the US, Russia or China wanted to get some of the Moon they would simply withdraw from the OST which is allowed for in Article XVI and proceed to 'appropriate' the Moon via the established methods of occupation, defense and seeking to have their claims recognized by other nations.

But it is even arguable that the OST is now part of 'customary international law' and can be considered a "Peremptory Norm" from which no withdraw or is possible, much like the Geneva convention which every nation can be held to account for violating regardless of signatory status.  The standard for for Peremptory Norm is very high but the OST arguably fulfills most of the requirements (duration & broad near universal adoption), all that's lacking is the accumulation of more strong enforcement precedents such as multiple nations reaching the Moon and forgoing territorial claims or signatory governments prohibiting non-governmental activities under Article VI grounds.  Neither of these has been possible due to the NASA monopoly of manned lunar landing but once these precedents are set I'd think this would cement the OST.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peremptory_norm


Where is you evidence that the OST prevents land licensing?  And how would you organise land use if you had one hundred thousand humans living on Mars?

#6457 Re: Human missions » Space X to Lead Mars Consortium? » 2012-05-14 14:48:00

SpaceNut wrote:

Firstly Commerce and exploitation of raw materials is the rich getting richer, it does not help mankind...
Secondly licensing, leasing have to have ownership rights established in order for the claim to be honored...
While

"The law doesn't operate on the principle "Only what is permitted by law is permissible". It operates on the principle that "That if something is permitted by law or is not forbidden by law, it is permissible". "

is true in that to which leads to law suits and legal rangling to gain a courts verdict on the interputation of the law...

OK, well I think you have to think this through , look at the implications.

What would happen if people can get to Mars at a relatively cheap price? 

You are saying no country can have a licensing system for land use. So anyone can set up wherever they like? That sounds like a recipe for anarchy to me. I can't imagine that is what was intended by the framers of the treaty.

As soon as you say "well one of the treaty nations will have to say who occupies what land" you have a de facto system of licensing. 

I think some rational system of land allocation and land use is important. Better we make it explicit. As long as we are not appropriate the land to nation states or selling off freehold I don't see a problem.

#6458 Human missions » To Mars in 2018? » 2012-05-13 16:22:24

louis
Replies: 34

I read in the Sunday Times today that Musk was intending to reach Mars and return, using the Dragon capsule, by 2018. 

I couldn't recall if I had seen that date before.

Does anyone else know about this.

Is he planning an orbital trip like Apollo 8?  That would still be a stupendous achievement.

Interested to hear comments on this.

2018 is only six years away!

#6459 Re: Human missions » Space X to Lead Mars Consortium? » 2012-05-13 16:12:49

Grypd wrote:

Its all to do with political events down here on Earth and the so called Common heritage of mankind.

It basically comes down to no one can actually own outer space as it is owned by everyone.

louis wrote:

None of that precludes in my view licensing of land for specific purposes, or indeed a declaration of independence by the occupants of a celestial body.  If licensing were not allowed then you would have the absurdity that anyone could come along and say ride a 3 tonne rover over someone else's photovoltaic facility. Clearly there must be allowance made for organisaiton of land use.

So, I see no problem with very long leases of land for instance.

Actually there is great laws all wrapped up in the outer space treaty about how to deal with damaging another countries property in space. There is though no organisation for land use everyone and no one owns it there fore no land leases possible.

The Moon treaty that came out had tried to solve some of those issues but it was and unfortunatly remains a very unsuitable treaty for anyone that wants to move mankind off this rock. The basic quist is that like the law of the sea the final arbiter would be an agency of the UN. And that is to many people of the world and especially Americans a definite No No. It would also insist that anyone attempting to make a profit would not only have to share those profits with the rest of the world it will also insist on full technology transfers to any state that asks.

In short it will not happen until someone gets round to fixing this treaty and if billionaires with clout cant get the US goverment to start down that road then no one can.

The law doesn't operate on the principle "Only what is permitted by law is permissible". It operates on the principle that "That if something is permitted by law or is not forbidden by law, it is permissible". 

Licensing of land for certain uses is not forbidden by the treaties.

I think people are slightly being misled by the history of teh Antarctic Treaty. But what's happened there is that have been lots of protocols agreed about how to prevent environmental degradation of the continent.  I don't think that any supplementary protocols have been agreed following the space treaties. So we only have the bare bones of the treaty provisions.

It seems to be perfectly acceptable for a treaty participant to license uses of land in order to prevent anarchy and chaos.   Otherwise, you are ending up arguing the absurd position that a treaty nation can just ship in millions of people and let them roam chaotically across the planet (or moon) doing as they please.

I think it is implicit in the treaty that ordered development supervised by the treaty parties is favoured of unlicensed development.

#6460 Re: Space Policy » The Outer Space Treaty » 2012-05-13 13:26:38

Grypd wrote:

It is a strong possibility.

Lets be honest here there will be interests that will force the UN to get involved in any mining in space no matter the object as a target.

Still with these multi billionaires there is now pressure to get the outer space and the moon treaty changed to a much more useful function.

Im in favour of a treaty that has allowance to utilise materials not for the common good but common courtesy that means you dont interfere with others and vice versa and the materials you gain can then be used


They definitely do need revision but in some ways it is better for the moment to have some poor treaties in place.  I can't really see any good coming from revision of the treaties at the moment.

Would be best if a Consortia got established on the Moon and Mars first.  Then any new treaties must make some allowance for self-government.

Essentially what we want from such treaties is the following:

1. Non-militarisation.

2. Allowing all countries on Earth a chance to participate in the exploration of space.

3. Provision for land use.

4. Provision for self-governance.

5. Some agreement over distribution of profits.

#6461 Re: Human missions » Space X to Lead Mars Consortium? » 2012-05-13 06:24:57

Grypd wrote:

You are correct there is a clear legal precedent it is that samples were returned as Scientific samples only and that was the betterment of all mankind.

And of course they were in the possesion of a goverment not a private agency.

The treaties are specific 'Outer space, including the moon and other celestial bodies, is not subject to national appropriation by claim of sovereignty, by means of use or occupation, or by any other means'

So using it for science to benefit mankind big tick
Using it for wealth generation no chance.

Certainly under the current treaties we certainly need a few changes.

Why is "science" the only way of bettering mankind? Commerce and exploitation of raw materials has a good claim to bettering mankind as well.

All that the passage you quote precludes is national appropriation.  As long as the USA or any other country is not claiming it for itself by those means, then the treaty has not been violated.

None of that precludes in my view licensing of land for specific purposes, or indeed a declaration of independence by the occupants of a celestial body.  If licensing were not allowed then you would have the absurdity that anyone could come along and say ride a 3 tonne rover over someone else's photovoltaic facility. Clearly there must be allowance made for organisaiton of land use.

So, I see no problem with very long leases of land for instance.

The treaty allows for private agencies to operate in space - it's just that a government has to take responsibility for their actions.  But it would not be difficult for a Consortium to find the equivalent of a flag of convenience.

#6462 Re: Space Policy » The Outer Space Treaty » 2012-05-12 16:22:29

If I was involved with the company, I think I would pledge a percentage to go to the UN and international charities, to fulfil that part of the treaty which speaks of the exploration and use of outer space having to be "carried out for the benefit and in the interests of all countries".   

Note the treaty does NOT say it has to be "wholly" for the benefit and in the interests of all countries NOR does it say it has to be for their EQUAL benefit etc.  However, pledging a certain percentage of profit - say 20% - would make clear that this was meeting the requirements of the treaty.

#6463 Re: Life on Mars » New Clues to Guide Search for Life on Mars » 2012-05-07 12:20:54

Void wrote:

I hate to be a posting pig, but that picture just had to draw me in.

I see the rocks in the pool of water.

Even though that pool of water may be very cold (And I presume any adapted life in it have an extremely low metabolism, I have to wonder what the temperature excursions are for the soil at the bottom of the pond.  It seems to me that the warmth of the noonday sunlight must improve it't temperature.

I also see the rocks poking up out of the brine.  That in fact really draws me.  Brine ponds have not been photographed on Mars, but I am not sure they cannot exist.  At least perhaps they can exist at some point in the procession of the tilting of the poles, if for instance snowfall were to contact a salt flat. smile (Your postings indicate exposed salt flats, and the ice that is quite low in lattitude under the soil in places suggests snowfall has occurred at some time in the past 100,000 years)?

Anyway a rock soaking in brine, if it is at least a bit porous, in the conditions where day night temperatures are extreem, suggests that that process could make the rocks habitible.  Where your articles suggest an extrordinary tollerance for salt by some organisms, it does leave in question if the temperatures on Mars can be high enough.  I would think that at noon time during the summer of the southern hemmisphere, 1/8-1/4 inches inside of the rock, yes.  And the rocks might be soaking in brine.  Perhaps not an open pool of water, but a pool of brine under the surface of the soil.

So, I suppose that if the rocks were like wicks, they woud draw moisture upwards to the exposed surface of the rock.  Sandstone perhaps? 

It is a feature of the Arctic ocean that ice on the ice pack can become fresh enough to drink even though it started as salt water ice.  Freezing causes brine to leave the ice through brine channels. 

So, I speculate that there might be a hope that rocks wicking up mosisture out of briny mud on Mars (Presumed covered with a dry crust), might also from exposure to the cycling of temperatures on Mars generate a less briny fluid for microbes to use within the rock.  It is even possible that orgainsms in the rocks, just under the surface might use photosynthisis.  I would only expect this if they were a remnant organism from Mars past, or some organism that somehow made it to Mars from Earth or Ancient Venus.

All that sounds feasible.  During summer on Mars temperatures are often above freezing. Organisms on Earth sometimes have only very brief windows of active experience followed by long periods of hibernation.  Maybe the organisms on Mars would spend 20 months out of 24  inactive and become active only during those brief summer months.

#6464 Re: Human missions » Your prediction for landing on Mars... » 2012-05-04 06:48:13

GW Johnson wrote:

Elon Musk/Spacex has nearly everything he needs to mount a private mission to Mars in about 10 years.  It's something he's already said he wants to do,  and he has the money to back it up. 

In the next 2-4 years,  he will have Falcon-Heavy and a manned version of Dragon flying.  Those plus a Bigelow inflatable for the habitat module,  and some sort of propellant tank module (fairly short development),  are all that is needed to do a vehicle or vehicles assembled in LEO by docking that could take men to LMO.  If he does it right,  they'll have artificial gravity by spinning the vehicle end-over-end. 

The real problem is a practical lander.  He doesn't have one.  No one does.  Yet. 

The lander and its propellant supply is a major dead-head payload item going to Mars (not coming back).  Its size sets a major amount of what you have to assemble in LEO to go to Mars.  Its design is a major enabling item for the design of the transit vehicle or vehicles. 

If Musk is working on a lander design,  he's pretty quiet about it.  (One-way unmanned Dragons for probes and cargo can land,  but cannot ascend back to orbit,  so that ain't the manned lander design.) 

The lander is a big deal.  That's just hard numbers with the rocket equation,  and fancy trick orbits won't fundamentally change that outcome.  If Musk wants to go to Mars in the next 10 years,  he'd better be working the lander issue.  If Mars really is his goal,  that's more important than a flyback reusable Falcon first stage. 

GW

I thought discussions elsewhere showed that if you have enough fuel/propellant, you can decelerate and then land slowly, using cantered thrust.  Part of the problem has been imagining that you have to arrive at hypersonic speeds.

Also, if the lander is small enough, you don't need that much fuel to decelerate. So the solution I believe is to pre-land your supplies and come down on an Apollo style lander (but adapted to the Mars atmosphere).

#6465 Re: Interplanetary transportation » Reaction Engines » 2012-05-02 16:18:30

GW Johnson wrote:

Louis:

I went and looked at Reaction Engines' web page,  and crawled around a bit just looking.  Things have changed since I first ran across them a few years ago. 

Most or all of the essential engine component technologies are now funded development programs of this or that agency.  If these component technologies can be made to work about as thought,  then the system can really be built.  Like most web sites,  it's quite optimistic,  but I saw enough "meat" to know for sure it's "real",  meaning this thing might eventually fly.  They do have a long way to go proving all the engine components.  And then there's some airframe components that will have to be proven,  most notably the heat shield. 

A look at their web site was reminiscent of looking at XCOR Aerospace's site,  except Reaction Engines is fairly big by comparison.  Yet,  I know that XCOR's Lynx suborbital tourist spaceplane is "for real",  too.  You should go visit their site. 

I've sat in their Lynx mockup,  and it's simple enough even I could fly that spaceplane.  My contacts there tell me Lynx number 1 is being built this year on their hangar floor. 

XCOR is about 30 guys and gals in one hangar at the Mojave,  CA municipal airport.  They've made their living so far selling rocket engines with the life,  restart,  and maintenance characteristics one expects from FAA-certified aircraft engines.  They're definitely "for real",  too.  Watch them,  I think they'll impress you next year. 

Most of the rest of the flightline at that airport is owned by Burt Rutan / Scaled Composites.  Last time I saw Burt in person was 1985.  Didn't get to go visit him,  when I visited XCOR recently (who's looking for ramjet help from me). 

GW


Do you know the guys at Armadillo, GW?  I like the look of their DIY rocket for Mars. Looks like something the Mars settlers might be able to build themselves after a few years.

#6466 Re: Interplanetary transportation » Reaction Engines » 2012-05-01 16:28:48

GW Johnson wrote:

Well,  passenger safety with a launch rocket such as Falcon-9 or Falcon-Heavy depends upon a good escape system.  I think Spacex's use of the capsule itself fully powered as the escape vehicle,  is a better idea than the old escape tower we used on Mercury and Apollo.  You have coverage from ignition all the way to orbit.  The tower didn't work after jettison. 

With an airliner-like vehicle (such as Skylon),  you have to make the craft "utterly reliable" so that no escape system is needed (sounds hauntingly familiar,  like "make the ship unsinkable",  right?  Well,  that's exactly what you have to do). 

That's what we tried to do with shuttle,  and failed.  A fragile heatshield,  exposed to debris impact in a side-mounted cluster,  is two strikes against you right there.  Add foam insulation that peels off,  and you kill a crew.  We did. 

That's why Skylon is proposed as an unmanned cargo vehicle.  Flying it like that for a while will uncover all the "gotchas",  which can be fixed in a follow-on design that could be manned.  That's actually the smart way to do it.  Because of its unique engines,  Skylon is really a feasibility demonstration vehicle.  Until we've flown it for a while. 

Any high-energy vehicle,  be it a vertical launch rocket or some kind of spaceplane,  will be risky.  That is just plain unavoidable.  But it can be managed and designed-for.

Feasibility of spaceflight itself is no longer in doubt.  For passenger service,  we need to get the safety-of-flight engineers in on the ground floor of all vehicle designs from now on.  After 50+ years,  we're finally doing that.  They did it at Spacex,  and I'm proud of them for it. 

Actually,  there was a way to have saved both shuttle crews,  and it was not what they implemented.  My idea was hindsight-only for Challenger,  but afterward it was never done,  which is why Columbia's crew died.  I couldn't get NASA to listen to me.  Outsider,  "not invented here",  and all that jazz.  But to this day I still show spaceflight crew escape concepts on my resume as something I consult in. 

GW


Oddly, perhaps, when you think about it, there is no escape system on an ordinary jet airliner.  So passengers wouldn't be at more risk really. In fact, I would expect the safety record to be better for the Skylon.  It would seem to avoid some of the dangers of rockets/the Space Shuttle...e.g. exploding rockets on the ground, bits falling off and hitting the fuel tanks etc.  If you avoid icy weather as well, is it going to be so dangerous?

What was your escape concept for the Space Shuttle?

#6467 Re: Terraformation » Artificial Magnetosphere - Electromagnetic Induction » 2012-05-01 09:26:34

Couldn't we have satellites in orbit around Mars with connecting cables. These satellites would be solar power stations, fed by reflectors further out.  The cables would then create an electro-magnetic field. Is this feasible? It might not need to cover the whole of Mars - just the main area of settlement, perhaps a 1000 miles by 500 miles shall we say. What do you think?

#6468 Re: Interplanetary transportation » Reaction Engines » 2012-04-30 16:03:02

Terraformer wrote:

SpaceX has Dragon... I think Skylon should acquire SpaceX, so that SpaceX is a British company... tongue

There's no comparison between sitting upside down on top of a rocket (aka a bomb) and the future offered by Skylon: a much more plane like experience to get you into space.

Something like Skylon is needed for longer term development of space tourism I think.

Edt more content

http://newmars.com/forums/viewtopic.php … 13#p138513

Yuri Pilipishin wrote:
GW Johnson wrote:

To this I would add the comment that no combined-cycle engine concept is an off the shelf item ready-to-apply, any more than scramjet is. Both have been “15 or 20 years away” since the 1960’s,  same as controlled fusion.  You cannot go to a manufacturer anywhere and buy one.  They don’t work yet,  except as very limited,  extremely-experimental devices.

If under "combined-cycle" you mean something like SABRE engines of Skylon, then it's agreed. These combined devices seems impossible in real world; too much adverticement with no results.

GW Johnson wrote:

That being the case, I see no practical applications for spaceplane concepts except as multi-stage devices to low Earth orbit, and then only for delivery of people at low payload fraction, not bulk cargo.

Surely, spaceplanes are not intended to bring lots of tons of cargo on orbit; instead, they could fly to orbit very frequently, with minimal price per kilogram.

But also, you forget my invention of multiple and multistage refueling; this made it possible for reusable spaceplanes to reach Moon, Mars, asteriods, and so on.

To bring a lot of cargo on orbit, surely it's better to use reusable rockets (not as much re-launches as for spaceplanes, but much more cargo per one launch). If someone would be interested, I have a project (it's my intellectual property, either) of such a completely reusable rocket (taking as a prototype rocket Energiya):
http://lychakivsky.dreamwidth.org/7959.html

GW Johnson wrote:

And I don’t think anybody will ever do that job with a turbojet-powered first stage. The frontal thrust density is just too impossibly low for anything like that to ever be practical! You’re much better off with rockets that can produce gobs of thrust from a small package at takeoff, just when you need it most, because your takeoff weight is so heavy.

Let me remember you Ukrainian "Mriya" aircraft. It is not only the most powerful cargo aircraft in the world - it also is intended to be exactly the said turbojet first stage for space launch. Maybe, you heard about MAKS project (small shuttle with external fuel tank) or "Air launch" (two-staged rocket system; as far as I'm informed they even evolutionize it to complete reusability), both intended to start from the top of "Mriya".

GW Johnson wrote:

The statement that "supersonic ramjets" are 1 < M < 6 is NOT actually correct in real practice.  There are low speed designs that cover 0.7 < M < 2-ish,  and high-speed designs that cover 1.8/2.5 < M < 4-to-6 (limited at both ends more by airframe drag relative to available thrust).  They differ by some very specific geometric features that you just cannot convert back-and-forth.

In my project, ramjets should start at M2.5 h=25km, and climb upward to M5(6) h=50 km. So they could be specialized for that altitudes and velocities (by "some very specific geometric features", as you have said).

GW Johnson wrote:

I don't think you'll like the engine inert weights or the required frontal cross-sections for a turbojet first stage, either. The numbers entirely rule out vertical takeoff,  and it looks rather ridiculous for horizontal takeoff,  if your payload is bigger than a small dog.

Why? If we take, just for estimate, turbojet engines of Soviet Tu - 144: it's four engines enable take-off weight of more than 200 000 kg (with the aerodynamic characteristics, very similar to my spaceplane); so, if we'd implement my concept of spaceplane with those engines, we would end up with final cargo on LEO estimately 2 000 - 3 000 kg (which is already not bad). And those engines were implemented in 1960s; now, after half a century pass, I think it would be possible to implement more powerful engines, so take-off weight could be nearly 500 000 kg, and final cargo on LEO - estimately 5 000 kg. That would made achiveable all the claimed functionality: including manned trip to Moon, Mars, and asteroids.

#6469 Re: Human missions » Sustainable Access to Mars: Interplanetary Transportation Architecture » 2012-04-30 14:12:34

GW Johnson wrote:

Please don't misunderstand ... I'm not against ISRU on the first mission.  I'm against betting lives on unproven equipment needlessly.

Nothing never-before-done-in-situ can be considered proven.  We can't really do "real ISRU" till we land on Mars.  Simulations can be quite good sometimes,  but it just ain't the real thing.  Because our estimates of site conditions are only estimates. 

It is essential to thoroughly try out everything we can dream up for ISRU from mission-1 on.  I just don't think it'll work as good as folks wish.  More than 50% of our early rocket shots in the 50's were failures.  This is no different:  it takes real trials to find and fix all the "gotchas",  and believe me,  there will be "gotchas". 

I do have some qualms about using a nearly-pure CO2 atmosphere to make stuff like fuel.  The density is so low.  And how do you compress in any practical equipment from 7 mbar to 10,000 mbar or more?  We have never built compressors like that before,  recip or turbine,  other than near-zero throughput lab devices.  Not very many of them,  either. 

One "out" for compression might be to refrigerate a large volume of atmospheric CO2 to solidify it,  pack it into a much smaller volume sealed container with no free volume,  then re-heat it.  Re-gasification confined like that is automatic compression of the product gas.  Energetically,  that's not a very efficient process because of the refrigeration,  but it might be more practical to do.  I just don't know. 

We might be better off just mining solid dry ice near the poles,  and doing confined-heating compression that way to get CO2 gas bottled at pressures we can really use.  But that's not viable ISRU unless you land near one of the poles.  See what I mean? 

GW

GW - My position is I agree with your failsafe approach - you can't bet lives on novel ISRU.

However, I think you are being unduly pessimistic about ISRU.  ISRU is not really "untried" in the way early rockets were.  PV panels are known to work for years on Mars without malfunctioning.
We will have to bet lives on those I think. 

We know from the Antarctic bases that you can grow a range of foods under artificial lights.

We know already you can miniaturise steam and stirling engines, lathes and so on.   There may be some issues about how these things operate in low gravity - but we can experiment on that to a certain extent on the lunar surface.

Also, with robot pre-landings you can try automated ISRU e.g. for rocket fuel and know before you launch whether it has worked.

#6470 Re: Interplanetary transportation » Reaction Engines » 2012-04-30 11:21:24

Terraformer wrote:

No, SpaceX is trying to run with established technology and make it cheaper; Skylon are going for cutting edge R&D. A merger would do neither good...

Depends how you look at it. I think there would be synergy for both. I think it would complement SpaceX's range, meaning that in due course it could come to dominate space and lunar tourism. Essentially Skylon would be offering a passenger service - and passengers aren't that heavy a payload.

#6471 Re: Interplanetary transportation » Reaction Engines » 2012-04-30 06:38:35

Rune wrote:

I've also been following Skylon for a number of years. They are certainly shooting high in their ambitions! Full-fledged SSTO, HTOL, no less. The whole shebang. It is a harsh road they are traveling, especially funding-wise, but it could very well end up working and getting european space efforts into the history books. The first real SSTO would indeed be a very big deal, and the precooler seems pretty much done (a full-sized prototype is undergoing testing right now, as is shown on the video). It's a definite maybe, and I hope they succeed, get their funding, start selling spaceplanes, and enter my personal hall of fame.


Rune. As a side project, they are also developing the world's first hypersonic antipodal airplane, the LAPCAT A2. O_O

Space X should buy them up now, open a European operation.

edit content adding
http://newmars.com/forums/viewtopic.php … 23#p126623

Antius wrote:

Based upon the information provided by GW, I have investigated the options for a two-stage launch vehicle.  The first stage is provided by a horizontal take-off ramjet aircraft, which burns jet fuel and is boosted to ~400mph by lox-jet fuel rockets within its wings, at which point ramjet thrust takes over.  I have not subjected this stage to detailed analysis, but have assumed that the vehicle will release the upper stage at a speed of Mach 6 (2km/s) at a height of 100,000’ (30km).

The second stage will be fuelled by LOX-jet fuel.  The additional delta-V required to reach orbit is 6.75km/s.  Assuming acceleration takes place at 5g, gravity losses work out to be 1.25km/s, which is only slightly lower than the upper stage upward release velocity of 1.4km/s, assuming second stage release takes place at 45 degree angle.  I have taken exhaust velocity to be vacuum exhaust velocity of 3500m/s.  With these values, the mass ratio of the upper stage is 6.88.  My assumption is that (initially at least) the upper stage will be expendable, which increases payload mass and reduces design complexity.  A reusable upper stage can be developed later on if cost-benefit analysis shows it to be worthwhile.  The traditional coupling mechanism between stages is explosive bolts.  However, this raises the potential for single point failure across a large number of bolts and is not very compatible with lower stage reusability and rapid turn-around.  Hydraulic clamps may be a better alternative if the mass penalty can be tolerated.

My initial preference for the expendable stage was maximum possible design simplification.  This led me to favour pressure fed fuel feed systems, thus avoiding the need for turbo-pumps.  The engine combustion chamber would work at a pressure of 20bar.  At such low pressure, it could be ablative lined carbon steel, with the exit nozzle being carbon steel and preferably radiatively cooled.  The low chamber pressure does not impact performance as the engine will be firing in a near vacuum.  Tank pressures would be 30bar.

My calculations indicate that even using spherical pressurised tanks it was very difficult to reach the required mass ratio with safety factors of 3.  To overcome this difficulty would require either the use of maraging steels, which cost ~$100/kg or the use of more than one stage.  Alternatively, a lower safety factor could be used, but this would push up quality control costs.  All of these appear to be counterproductive for an expendable stage, which needs to be cheap and easy to mass produce, rather like a bullet.  However, the low chamber pressure would appear to allow the use of gas jet feed pumps, which have no moving parts and should be very cheap to produce.  The gas can be provided by an electrically heated boiler.  Lithium ion batteries appear to provide sufficient energy density to power the heaters without severely impacting the mass ratio.  The use of jet pumps is possible only for engines with relatively low chamber pressures.  Assuming tanks are pressurised to 3bar feed pressure and are constructed from alloy steel with yield stress of 600MPa, then the tank mass ratio reduces to ~2% (i.e. the empty mass of the tank is 2% full mass, ignoring valves).

Attitude control during the 135 second acceleration can be accomplished using some combination of nozzle gimbaling or cold gas (nitrogen) jets, as the required impulse is modest.  The elimination of gambling would allow further simplification of the engine (i.e. fixed nozzle).

Overall a simple, mass produced upper stage would appear to be workable.  Assuming a mass ratio of 2 for the 1st stage and a 10% empty mass for the 2nd stage, the overall mass ratio would be 44.  If total take-off mass is 1000 tonnes, payload to orbit would be 22.7 tonnes.  To deliver payload at a cost of $100/kg, the total launch cost must be no greater than $2.3million.  This is a tall order, and requires that the upper stage be manufactured for not much more than $1million each.  It also requires that the vehicle is able to use conventional facilities (airports) with minimal additional ground infrastructure (hence the choice of propellants).

Just realised I forgot to account for the Earth's spin.  That knocks 500m/s of the orbital speed velocity change and reduces overal mass ratio to 32.  Quite a significant improvement.

#6472 Re: Human missions » Sustainable Access to Mars: Interplanetary Transportation Architecture » 2012-04-30 06:36:46

SpaceNut wrote:
louis wrote:

I agree we need testing of ISRU - but a lot of that testing could be done on Earth or the Moon. I certainly favour a Mars Simulation Chamber - a full mock up of the base inside a giant warehouse with low atmospheric pressure and Mars gases/Mars simulation regolith.  It might cost a couple of hundred million dollars but I think in terms of the overall success of the mission it would be vital.

But we don't disagree that Mission 1 ISRU has got to be failsafe. That's one reason why I favour pre-landed supplies, because you can establish they are present and in good order before the mission lands. I suppose you could  argue that the mission might land thousands of Kms off course! Well I think that's a bit like arguing the rocket might explode between Earth and Mars - it might, but there's not a lot you can do about that.

This is something that has been proposed on MarsDrive but the cost is not in reach for the group at this time....

And of course another advantage is you can simulate the Mars night and day sequence.

YOu can even simulate journeys to remoter places using rover simulators.

#6473 Re: Human missions » Planetary Resources Inc. » 2012-04-29 18:15:12

Surely the obvious thing for PRI to do is to rely on Space X to get them there and just concentrate on the mining technology.

#6474 Re: Human missions » Sustainable Access to Mars: Interplanetary Transportation Architecture » 2012-04-29 15:01:49

GW Johnson wrote:

There's already a light gas gun launching small (around 5 pound) payloads at M17 for USAF for hire.  It's a private venture.  I saw their paper at the 14th annual Mars Society convention in Dallas last summer,  same advanced technology session as my Mars mission design paper. 

Bigger diameter,  higher launch angle (more than anything else),  a bit more fuel-oxidizer combustion power,  and you reach orbital altitudes at almost-orbital speed.  From there it's a very small rocket burn to circularize in LEO.  Almost nothing but an old standard Mark 25 solid JATO motor,  for a pretty substantial payload (hundreds to thousands of pounds).  I don't remember the specific numbers,  but it looked pretty good to me.  Perfect for refueling an already-existing vehicle,  especially if what you shoot up there is water,  as tougher-than-an-old-boot ice.  The real problem is launch gees.  Thousands of them.  Just like an artillery shell.  Something we already know know to handle,  just not with fragile stuff.  Gun launch cost looked like about $100-200/pound,  compared to Falcon-Heavy at $800-1000/pound. 

As for ISRU on the first mission or two to Mars,  by all means send such gear for trials,  but absolutely don't count on it working right!  Chances are,  it will not work right,  perhaps not at all,  especially on the first mission.  Probably not even the second.

Accordingly,  it would be entirely stupid to count on ISRU for crew survival and return on the first mission.  Nothing is more expensive than a dead crew.  Ask NASA.  They've seen it 3 times now (Apollo-1,  Challenger,  and Columbia).  Nearly saw it on Gemini-8,  Gemini-7,  and Apollo-13. 

It takes on the average 1.5 to 2 full scale,  all-up trials of new equipment before it comes close to working "right",  and that's with some very talented,  artful people working the problem.  That's nearly 20 years' aerospace engineering experience talking.  Rocket science ain't science,  it's about 50% art never written down.  It's about 40% science actually written down somewhere.  And,  it's about 10% blind dumb luck,  and you have to plan for that. 

It's no different in any of the other disciplines,  either.  That's why the non-flight engineering disciplines use such whopping huge safety factors.  Those of us designing things that fly could not afford that luxury.  Fundamentally,  that's why flying things are more expensive. 

GW

I agree we need testing of ISRU - but a lot of that testing could be done on Earth or the Moon. I certainly favour a Mars Simulation Chamber - a full mock up of the base inside a giant warehouse with low atmospheric pressure and Mars gases/Mars simulation regolith.  It might cost a couple of hundred million dollars but I think in terms of the overall success of the mission it would be vital.

But we don't disagree that Mission 1 ISRU has got to be failsafe. That's one reason why I favour pre-landed supplies, because you can establish they are present and in good order before the mission lands. I suppose you could  argue that the mission might land thousands of Kms off course! Well I think that's a bit like arguing the rocket might explode between Earth and Mars - it might, but there's not a lot you can do about that.

#6475 Re: Life support systems » Solar Enclosure Architecture On Mars » 2012-04-29 10:35:07

Were those droplets of liquid on the Phoenix lander every properly explained. They were ocurring in a polar region!   I think it was suggested they might be water saturated with salt.

Presumably you can grow some things in briney water...seaweed for instance.

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