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#6301 Re: Life support systems » Greenhouse - hydroponics vs soil » 2012-07-31 05:58:49

GW Johnson wrote:

Lessee if I am understanding things correctly. 

Is not "soil" for growing plants not a mixture of rock dust and organic material,  with some of that organic material supplying texture and water absorption properties,  and some of it the nutrients?

If I am correct about "soil",  then we mix rock dust from Mars with wet sewage from the astronauts,  plus a little fibrous cellulosic waste (shredded paper works,  but shredded stems and leaves work better,  later on).  We put this under an appropriate atmosphere at an appropriate pressure,  shield it from too much UV and nuclear radiation,  and plant crops in it. 

As for Martian microbes,  the odds are they are either quite closely related to us by the panspermia hypothesis,  or else they are utterly alien.  In either case,  we're likely OK,  and so are they.  It wouldn't take very long to find out on one of the probes,  or from a sample return,  but we need to get on with that task. 

Some of us have pretty much figured out how to get people there within 5-10 years.  So has Spacex.

GW

One issue I am not sure has been bottomed out is I have read the dust on Mars like that on the Moon is potentially very dangerous to inhale.  That could be an issue re tending of plants by humans. Does anyone have any information on that?

#6302 Re: Life support systems » Greenhouse - hydroponics vs soil » 2012-07-30 18:30:03

RobertDyck wrote:

Hi GW Johnson. You're right to a point. However, since Mars Global Surveyor we have discovered there are a log of hydrated minerals. These include clay. Scientists had said that you can't call any surface material "soil" if it doesn't include organic material. They had called everything on Mars "regolith". However, after years of studying the surface in all it's detail, they got tired of that. They now called bedrock "bedrock", they call boulders boulders, they call stones stones, they call gravel gravel, they call sand sand, and that loose stuff that looks like dry dirt that covers the surface of the planet they now call "soil". It doesn't have any organic material, but with ground rock with particle size smaller than loess, together with simple clay, they might as well call it "soil".

Processing sewage to be suitable for growing plants is tricky. You have to break down feces into something plants can use. That means some sort of microbe, either a soggy pile of solid material (composting) or shredding the "logs" to be suspended in water as a brown liquid (digester). Either way the microbes can be finicky. Contamination of food crops with fecal coliform is another danger. I'm trying to avoid that by just using Mars "soil" with carbonated water and ammonium nitrate fertilizer. Once you have crops, then use shredded stems and leaves from the previous crop.


I've kept a plant alive in the office for several years with no biofeed  - purely, just feeding it back its own leaves!

#6303 Re: Life support systems » Greenhouse - hydroponics vs soil » 2012-07-30 14:20:13

GW Johnson wrote:

Lessee if I am understanding things correctly. 

Is not "soil" for growing plants not a mixture of rock dust and organic material,  with some of that organic material supplying texture and water absorption properties,  and some of it the nutrients?

If I am correct about "soil",  then we mix rock dust from Mars with wet sewage from the astronauts,  plus a little fibrous cellulosic waste (shredded paper works,  but shredded stems and leaves work better,  later on).  We put this under an appropriate atmosphere at an appropriate pressure,  shield it from too much UV and nuclear radiation,  and plant crops in it. 

As for Martian microbes,  the odds are they are either quite closely related to us by the panspermia hypothesis,  or else they are utterly alien.  In either case,  we're likely OK,  and so are they.  It wouldn't take very long to find out on one of the probes,  or from a sample return,  but we need to get on with that task. 

Some of us have pretty much figured out how to get people there within 5-10 years.  So has Spacex.

GW

I don't think the Martian microbe fear can be dismissed with a wave of the hand. We might not have the equipment to readily identify them. Remember on Earth we have prions which cause disease but they are very poorly understood - we now understand that they are replicating proteins but they were not even identified until 1982.  There might be some nasty surprise waiting in the soil.  It would be crazy I think to opt for soil on mission one.

I think once we are established and sure the soil is safe we can begin manufacturing soil. It does have some advantages.

#6304 Re: Life support systems » Greenhouse - hydroponics vs soil » 2012-07-29 05:36:41

RobertDyck wrote:

Upon landing on Mars, unpack all surface equipment. That includes science instruments, garage tent for the rover, and your inflatable greenhouse. The greenhouse would be held down with large tent pegs. Shovel soil into trays. Inflate the greenhouse with a tank of stored air. Set up the trays, an awning inside the greenhouse to reflect heat at night, open it during the day. Again, not my idea, I got that from Dr. Boston's paper. Hang artificial lights, and wire them up. It may take a day or two to get the greenhouse set up. And the astronauts will be called upon to take science measurements. Use an air pump to pressurize Mars atmosphere, that will take a few hours, but can be done at night while they sleep. Then take a bottle of water and pressurize with this Mars atmosphere. That will create soda water, to soak the soil in the trays. Then plant seeds. All this in the first week after landing.

I have a few packages of seeds for garden vegetables. The package records number of days from planting to harvest:
Carrot - Jumbo (coreless) scarlet nantes: 68 days
green pepper - Early California Wonder: 75 days
Corn - Canadian Early Supersweet Hybrid F1: 65-70 days
Peas - Sugar Snap (Edible Pod): 70-75 days

I looked up the website of this seed company, they have more seeds available. http://www.mckenzieseeds.com
Tomato - Rio Grande: 75-85 days
Lettuce - Summertime: 75 days

...then discover there are microbes on Mars and that you have just reactivated them with your heating and feeding regime...and they have now infected all your personnel...who have no immunity against them...all your people are vomiting both ends...

This is why I think we would need to begin with hydroponics.

Of course using Mars water would not be without its risks, but I think they would be far less than using Mars regolith. I think it would be easier to analyse water prior to use and it could be distilled, could it not?

So, for the first few missions I think safety first demands we use hydroponics.

Soil could be introduced gradually, first with artificial lighting and then using ambient light and light from strategically placed reflectors.

In terms of crops dwarf buckwheat is one of my favourites - the quickest way to get a versatile cereal.  Takes about 60 days I think, if I recall correctly. Can be used in a number of ways, including of course the making of nutritious pancakes - very easy.

#6305 Re: Science, Technology, and Astronomy » Robots becoming useful... » 2012-07-28 18:39:02

SpaceNut wrote:

Dialup to slow to watch the youtube but google Asimo Mars Robots and here is...
Honda's ASIMO (Advanced Step in Innovative Mobility), : A robot that can walk on two legs like a person....
Asimo can walk up and down stairs and recognize faces and voices.

http://www.airventure.org/news/2011/images/asimo.jpg

http://www.airventure.org/news/2011/110630_asimo.html
http://www.glideidea.com/2012/05/24/asi … -mobility/
http://www.popsci.com/technology/articl … eanup-work

Of course Nasa is working on
http://robonaut.jsc.nasa.gov/

Strangely, I'd never heard about Robonaut before - sounds like it's already happening then.  But I do wonder about NASA sometimes - wouldn't they get more bangs for their bucks if they maybe co-operated with JAXA and Honda on a project.

Anyway, whichever way you look at it, I think we can see robots could have a key role to play, not as a substitute for humans but as an extension of their presence on Mars.

#6306 Science, Technology, and Astronomy » Robots becoming useful... » 2012-07-28 15:28:18

louis
Replies: 141

I think by the time we get to Mars robots could be really useful.  I was struck by how far Asimo has developed:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zul8ACjZ … re=related

I can imagine a Mars-adapted Asimo being v. useful on the surface doing things like lifting rocks, or clearing them out of the way; cleaning PV panels; cleaning vehicles...maybe even being used in farm and industrial habs.

What do you think?

#6307 Re: Unmanned probes » Official MSL / Curiosity Rover Thread | Aug 5, 2012 10:31 p.m. PT » 2012-07-27 07:02:07

Vincent wrote:

Time is drawing neigh. Last thing we want is a crash.

"Dont look Ethel!!!!"

Nay, the time is drawing nigh! smile

#6308 Re: Life support systems » Greenhouse - hydroponics vs soil » 2012-07-26 16:06:26

RobertDyck wrote:

Thank you for replying louis. But I believe hydroponics is complex, because of that solution. You can stack layers with soil trays, so that isn't an issue. Here's an example from the Mars Homestead Project, phase 2.
http://www.marshome.org/images2/albums/ … cam-2C.jpg

However, I still argue for ambient light greenhouses. I could go only about life support, but every system has a single point of failure: power. Plants are the only means to recycle air and water without power. But that doesn't work if the greenhouse requires power for artificial light. So for life support backup, I want greenhouses that are long and narrow, long east/west with mirrors on either side to reflect sunlight in through the sides. This will double total illumination, and the mirrors don't have to track the sun. At dawn, sunlight reflects westward by the distance between mirrors and greenhouse. At noon light reflects straight in. When the sun sets in the west, light will reflect eastward, again by the distance between mirror and greenhouse. The only tracking will be for seasons: adjust mirror angle 1/2° every second week to adjust for sun altitude. (The astronomy use of 'altitude', not height.)

The more I read of results from Mars probes (orbiters, landers, and rovers), the more I realize Mars soil is the same as Earth. The only exception is superoxides, and those decompose in seconds upon exposure to liquid water. You know, releasing oxygen by soaking soil is a good thing. It helps inflate the greenhouse.

As for feces, that's more complicated. But that's for a more established settlement. An initial science mission should just use Mars soil alone. Terry Kok has done some work with feces, he found a composting toilet is simpler and more stable than a grey water sewage processing system. Of course the BioMars guys would disagree.

Great graphic -though I think the soil trays look possibly too shallow for the plants involved.

I am not dogmatic on this - whichever system is most reliable, let's run with that. I think that reliability does require artificial lighting - which is easy to arrange.

I am not sure why would we ever need farm habs as life support. Seems a rather desperate idea.

#6309 Re: Human missions » Elon Musk: ticket to Mars for $500,000. » 2012-07-26 16:00:51

NeoSM wrote:

The only functioning economic model would constitute a "fully" closed system where one planet would not have to rely on the other; they would both still be supporting the growing in-space infrastructure, but Mars would have to not just be an outstretched hand of Earth. There is no Mars-Earth, only Mars* and Earth*, but as you VERY correctly say, it's far off. You could say that's the end goal, a Mars* and an Earth* if one is lost the other lives on; an act of charity indeed.

You both seem to have lost contact with reason. It's clear that from day one there will be a Mars internal economy, based around things like power generation, and an Earth-Mars economy based on things like sale of experimental services on the planet to universities.

#6310 Re: Human missions » Elon Musk: ticket to Mars for $500,000. » 2012-07-26 15:58:45

clark wrote:

You seem to want to play with semantics. I don't. My point is clear. Let me restate, again, there is no real tangible value in mars. Stop. There is no real economic model for earth-mars. Stop. Any realistic model is 50 years out. Stop. Musk is building towards mars as an act of charity. Stop. relying on charity for your long term plans is a poor strategy. Stop.

Reality tv and logos does not a business plan make. but what do I know. Enjoy your kingdom of kazoos.


You're just asserting, not debating. Setting up an experiment on Mars for an Earth-bound university in return for payment is, for instance,  an economic activity and that sort of thing can start from Mission One. To deny that is to be irrational.

#6311 Re: Human missions » Elon Musk: ticket to Mars for $500,000. » 2012-07-26 08:14:47

clark wrote:

If you think the act of production automatically equates to an "economy" then I have no choice but to believe that you gained your insight from a misguided game of Monopoly. Do not pass Go.

You seem to be confusing the word "economy" with the phrase "market economy".  I don't know why.

#6312 Re: Human missions » Starlite » 2012-07-26 06:31:41

JoshNH4H wrote:

Well, that certainly is interesting.  Do you by any chance have any more technical links on the subject?


Nothing technical but it's still "Live" - here's a press article from earlier this year.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/ … ecret.html

#6313 Re: Human missions » Starlite » 2012-07-25 18:14:37

JoshNH4H wrote:

It seems to me that it wasn't necessarily a hoax but you never know.  Was any specific technical information ever released?  Starlite might have simply been made irrelevant by more recent advances in materials science.

My understanding is that Starlite (as claimed) exceeds the performance of other modern materials.  Part of its attraction was the way it could be applied I believe,as a coating.

#6314 Re: Science, Technology, and Astronomy » More on 3D printing... » 2012-07-25 18:10:49

Glandu wrote:
louis wrote:

(.../...)
I have read that the steel used in some swords produced in the medieval period was as good and strong as anything produced in modern steel factories.  I take some comfort from that. I am fairly confident that we can create high grade steel in small scale furnaces with modern methods.

This I agree. But you have to remind that it was a matter of weeks to build one single sword of that quality. The tough part will be to scale up. (my guess here is that we will send a few of bug machines ina  few flights, & with them create all others needed. But we need the first few ones imported, should be cheaper than recreating them from scratch on-site)

For the 3D-part, they still don't give any example of heavily-mechanically-stressed part. Where they begin to shine of for parts where shape is more important than mechanical properties. And they will even more. Yet, I have to see a poppet valve made in 3D. I'm not sure we'll see soon.

And there will be also need for that kind of parts. In a mechanical system, machining quality may improve a lot the energetic efficiency. Surface quality, especially, can't compare. For a stirling engine, for example(I know pro-solar energy people here think about them), the better the surface of the cylinder is, the more efficient it will be. 3D printing is pixellisation of the steel. You don't make circles as good in pixels than with a compass for drafting.

Bottom line is that we will probably need both, for different usages. The ability to make very complex shapes will probably be useful for fluid management(for example). Yet, standard, older methods will still be critical where mechanical properties or surface quality will be critical.

I can't say on the basis of my limited knowledge of the subject that I don't disagree with anything you say - I think we will proceed along separate lines - 3D and traditional furnaces. We will deploy people with craft skills but also use sophisticated CNC lathes and robots to help us reach high quality in production.

#6315 Re: Human missions » Elon Musk: ticket to Mars for $500,000. » 2012-07-25 16:35:36

...looking back at your post, Clark, I think you are really confusing the different elements of the economy.

There will be a local economy on Mars. Initially this won't be a money economy. But it will be an economy, there will be producers and consumers.  You wonder who will pay the kazoo makers. To use your analogy, they have the ISRU and the machines to make kazoos - except of course they will generally make only utilitarian equipment that allows the economy to grow e.g. farm equipment, batteries, solar reflectors construction materials etc.

There will also be trade between Mars and Earth. This will form part of a money economy.

The money to pay for transits to Mars and replenishment of equipment such as rockets, medicines and space suits will come from a variety of sources e.g. revenue from sales of material and services (such as  managing experiments on Mars and sale of meteorites), profits on operations and investment capital from companies on Earth.

#6316 Re: Human missions » Elon Musk: ticket to Mars for $500,000. » 2012-07-25 16:25:20

clark wrote:

All your silly buzzwords aside, producing something does not make an economy. I'm sorry that my poor metaphor failed- i really can't make this any plainer.

But I digress, go make your kazoos- afterall, production = economy.

My original point is that Musk is motivated from a point of charity. I applaude him, but it makes for a poor long term plan to depend on personal charity.

They aren't silly buzzwords, they are the essentials to understanding how an economy works.

You can't just play humpty and make up meanings that suit you. Everyone who studies economics knows that it is based on production.  If you mean that it also has to include trade, well that will have taken place before the rocket leaves for Mars, with sponsorship deals, TV rights and so on.

Like many people you completely underestimate Elon Musk - and thank goodness that is the case.

#6317 Re: Human missions » Elon Musk: ticket to Mars for $500,000. » 2012-07-25 16:17:43

NeoSM wrote:
louis wrote:

As soon as you arrive on Mars and fold out your PV panels, you have an economy.

Wrong

louis wrote:

When people grapple with these ideas they often get confused between different concepts e.g. profit and revenue, ISRU utlitisation, trade surplus, serivces/manufacture, Mars GDP, subsidised and unsubsidised activities, money cost/energy cost/labour cost, Mars money and Earth money, per capita wealth, personal wealth, transit costs etc etc  Really, you need to have a good grasp of all these different concepts.

Exactly

clark wrote:

All your silly buzzwords aside, producing something does not make an economy. I'm sorry that my poor metaphor failed- i really can't make this any plainer.

But I digress, go make your kazoos- afterall, production = economy.

This is dead on with what I have been trying to say.

If you don't think production is part of an economy there is no hope for you.

#6318 Re: Life support systems » Greenhouse - hydroponics vs soil » 2012-07-25 16:15:15

RobertDyck wrote:

An email list had this link to a NASA study of food for a Mars mission. There are a few things I want to comment on.

http://www.npr.org/2012/07/24/157313902 … rs-mission

First, the person says a Mars greenhouse would use hydroponics instead of soil. That's got a problem: the nutrient solutions. Any hydroponic system requires several highly concentrated nutrient solutions, and these bottles of liquid are heavy. The weight of those supplies is extensive, hauling that to Mars is highly questionable. You could try to make them on Mars, but extracting them from Mars soil and purifying and concentrating to what's required for hydroponics? That would take a lot of equipment. Again weight, we need to minimize anything we send from Earth. For reliability we also have to keep it simple; remember the engineering mantra: KISS = Keep It Simply Stupid.

This is why I recommend simple soil. Shovel some Mars soil into a pressurized greenhouse, add water, grow crops.  Ok, so what do we have to do soil to make it suitable? Mars Phoenix measured soil pH. What it found is what scientists expected based on mineral composition measured by previous missions. Phoenix measured pH 7.7.

http://www.space.com/12695-mars-soil-li … study.html

Neutral pH is 7, so that's ever so slightly alkaline. Most food crops want slightly acidic soil, but you could grow something like asparagus. But this can be treated with simple means. Simply bubble Mars atmosphere under pressure through water. This will create carbonated water, also known as soda water. Mars atmosphere is 95.32% CO2, 2.7% N2, 1.6% Ar, as measured by Viking 2. Earth's atmosphere is 78% N2, and 0.9% Ar. Carbonated water typically has pH between 3 and 4, making it a mild acid. Actually, CO2 dissolved in water is called carbonic acid. This will help neutralize alkaline soil. In fact, this has already been tried by gardeners. The following link talks about adding carbonated water to plants.

http://www.gardenguides.com/131867-effe … lants.html

The acid will dissolve alkali minerals from soil, this is an acid-alkali reaction. Dissolving them into solution makes them readily available to plants. Although the link suggests you have to be moderate with carbonated water, too much is bad for plants.

If you look at all the nutrients in Mars soil, it has everything needed to grow plants. It is low in carbon, but adding carbonated water will help with that. Soil is also low in nitrogen; in fact Mars rovers have not yet discovered any nitrogen at all within detection limits. The APXS instrument has a threshold of 0.1%, so nitrogen is less than that. Ok, so we need to add nitrogen fertilizer. Can you say "ammonium nitrate"? I knew you could.

Fertilizer used on Earth is normally measured in "K-P-N", that is three numbers representing the concentration of potassium, phosphorus, and nitrogen. Simply by selecting the right patch of Mars soil we can get enough K and P.

I could describe how to make ammonium nitrate, but for obvious reasons I do not want to post that on the internet. Let's just say we can make it.

So let's see, this means a Mars greenhouse requires Mars soil, Mars atmosphere, water, breathable air to fill the greenhouse, and this one single fertilizer. That sounds a lot simpler than trying to make hydroponic solutions.

My view is that hydroponics are good for the early decades of the economy, not least because you can stack several growing layers within a habitat - maybe growing four crops in a 2 metre high facility.

But as the colony matures of course we want to use soil. My understanding is that soil is pretty complex business. It's not just the nutrients, you need the organic content as well.  There may also be issues over the rock particles on Mars which are different from those on Earth I believe. We might need to ground rocks rather than use existing soil.  We'll certainly want to recycle our faeces.

#6319 Re: Human missions » Starlite » 2012-07-25 16:04:44

NeoSM wrote:

After reading this thread, I assumed Starlite to be an elaborate hoax, so I decided to look a little bit deeper into its history and current status. Here's what I took away from it:

1. Maurice Ward - the inventor - was tremendously secretive of his "invention". He wouldn't let even a peice of it leave his sight, refusing to patent the product, or give potential buyers/investors a sample; out of fear that someone may reverse engineer it. He even went so far as to bringing his daughter with him when he went to a testing facility to grab up any flakes that may fall off the material in a hoover vac.
2. There are a fairly large number of well-documented tests by agencies of various governments and first-hand reports from numerous scientists and engineers attesting to Starlites validity; aparently it was able to withstand the force of 75 hiroshimas without breaking a sweat.
3. After 20 years of holding the product he was never able to meet the terms set down by the various interested parties (goverments, private companies ect.).
4. Ward was a very greedy man, always demanding greater and greater amounts for his "invention" - when agencies/buyers/investors met his price, he would just jump it up higher, leading the price up to unrealistic heights.
5. Maurice Ward died in 2011, all updates on Starlite "talks" stopped in 2009, his website even losing it's domain name. Ward NEVER wrote down the "recipe" for Starlite; it's not lost, because aparently his close family knows what it is now.

Ward always raved about how Starlite could save endless lives (obviosly it could if it could do what it claimed), it's my opinion that it was ethically wrong not to release it, as it would have gone to the betterment of mankind.

I'm still a bit skeptical of Starlite, and doubt it will ever see the light of day; after twenty years of Maurice Ward dragging it along without a single investor/buyer, there were questions as to whether or not he even posessed the skill to replicate it. (maby it's just a peice of material he got off an alien crash ooooooo tongue)

The implications this material would have on the aerospace industry are profound. It would be great for a heat shield or blast barrier - I would also like to see if it could be used as radiation shielding.

There is video of it being tested (independently on one of our TV progs)  and apparently being completely unaffected by blow torches and the like.  That's all I know.  It could have been a hoax I guess.

#6320 Re: Human missions » Elon Musk: ticket to Mars for $500,000. » 2012-07-25 07:00:42

Rxke wrote:

I wrote the former entry some hours ago, forgot to hit 'submit'

Maybe now I'm a bit more clear in the head, grin.

I think it will be some kind of 'stakeholder' bonanza, like in the goldrush, but not poor guys trying for their luck, no.  More like the big corps trying to be first and patent the h*ll out of things they do there 'first'   

you think patent wars are bad today? Wait untill we set foot on Mars...

MitshubichiSuperCorp hitching a ride with a small dumptruck in their luggage, using it there for a week and saying 'hey we invented a NEW way of hauling regolith!' and claiming any possible future mining rights through their technique. et c.

speculation in the extreme.

'We can't let the other guy (rival company) get away with an opportunity like that!'

Meanwhile, they set up outposts et c, demand for transportation rises, etc etc.

people end up there, first the loyal companymen in the extreme, later more mundane workers and jack of all trades....

And then of course there's an uprising lol  and Mars wil be free, free free! lol

I think "being first" will be a huge source of revenue. I have often mentioned the competition I think there will be to have the first university satellite campus on Mars.

Equally, just imagine the huge publicity that would go to the first car being driven on Mars. Maybe a SUV type vehicle. Imagine if a company paid for most of the parts to be shipped out there and then assembled it there. The news media would go wild and then the company could trade on that and images of the vehicle on Mars for years to come. It would easily be worth paying $50 million even $100 million for that sort of publicity.  But the real cost to a Mars Consortium might be no more than $10-$20 million - there would be a huge profit to be made.

#6321 Re: Human missions » Elon Musk: ticket to Mars for $500,000. » 2012-07-25 06:54:33

clark wrote:

If I go out to the middle of the Sahara and start making kazoos, I haven't magically created an economy. Maybe I sell a few kazoos because some people like the novelty of getting a kazoo that was made in the Sahara, but most people will buy their kazoo's locally because it is easier and cheaper. Making it easier to get to the Sahara doesn't solve the problem; it just means more people will show up in the Sahara making their own kazoo's. A competition of kazoo's!

I know, you might point out that some of the people going to the Sahara could sell other things to the kazoo makers. True. A little local service economy in the Sahara. Still, how do you pay the service economy if the kazoo makers aren't making any money? Poor little kazoo makers.

Here is what you can put on the plaque for your first Martian base: "Mars, Kingdom of the Kazoo's"

You're not making any sense at all.

As soon as you arrive on Mars and fold out your PV panels, you have an economy.  You are producing stuff (electricity) on Mars.

You also have a service economy based on things like sponsorship and carrying experiments.

The facts are that people do search for meteorites in the Sahara and do make a living from it.  People also export sand to beaches and so on.

Mars however is not the Sahara - it is far more interesting to people. The opporunities for developing its ISRU economy and its trading economy will be huge.

When people grapple with these ideas they often get confused between different concepts e.g. profit and revenue, ISRU utlitisation, trade surplus, serivces/manufacture, Mars GDP, subsidised and unsubsidised activities, money cost/energy cost/labour cost, Mars money and Earth money, per capita wealth, personal wealth, transit costs etc etc  Really, you need to have a good grasp of all these different concepts. People tend to just slop them into the same bucket and mix them up. Only once you start differentiating between them can you get a grip on Mars economic development.

#6322 Re: Human missions » Elon Musk: ticket to Mars for $500,000. » 2012-07-24 13:24:17

NeoSM wrote:
louis wrote:

We ought to take those words and put them up on a plaque in the first Mars base in 2022.

Second off, what you bring back will have a huge saleable value: regolith and meteorites will be selling for hundreds of dollars a gram. Not just that - but virtually any item from the first mission will have high value to science based museums around the world who again will be paying hundreds of dollars a gram. If a museum gets just an extra 10 people per day through the doors because of a Mars related exhibit they might raise over $30,000 a year. Over ten years that's an extra $300,000 revenue.   That's why they can afford to splash out $100,000 on a little selection of objects that have been to or come from Mars.


If we used your Mars base in the next 10 years date,

The first Mars mission lander will not have the ability to bring back vast amounts of rock; what little rock will be brought back will be used for scientific study, and even if it was sold along with any "first mission tech" (unlikely; it seems more approprate / probable that after the "artifacts" are studied to the fullest extent, they'll be donated to the high profile museums of the participating countries (Smithsonian, State Hermitage ect.) )- the money made from the few peices brought back would be insignificant compared to the price of the actual launch - using only the first mission - you would never break even from the sale of Mars rocks, so you would never make any money. Very unlikely that you would get an absolute return on your investment right away (definitely not from the first), unless a better technology is used - which may not happen for the next 4 or 8 years due to political and economical contraints.


I very much doubt Space X will donate material free to agencies. They will have to pay one way or the other. It might not be a straight commercial transaction, it might be a donation to the Mars project.

If Space X can get you to orbit for $2500, it seems reasonable they can get that down to at least $1000 over time.  I think applying a multiple of 4 to that will give you $4000. I think that multiple will be reasonable once the Mars transit system is up and running. Obviously the initial development costs are not going to be recouped any time soon but what is important is if Mars can pay its way in terms of revenue thereafter. I think it can, ferrying scientists, space agency staff etc, putting experiments on Mars, returning regolith and meteorites (or maybe fossils! - imagine how much they will cost)...

#6323 Re: Human missions » Elon Musk: ticket to Mars for $500,000. » 2012-07-24 09:22:56

clark wrote:

There is no money to be made on Mars, not in 10 years and not in 20 years. There have been a lot of fanciful ideas, but there is no economy that makes any sense.

Wish it were otherwise. The economy needed is 50+ years out.


We ought to take those words and put them up on a plaque in the first Mars base in 2022.

First off, the landing on Mars will be an epic event that could easily rival the Olympics in terms of sponsorship (and the sponsorship doesn't have to end with the landing). I am not a fan of corporate money but to pretend it's not available is absurd. The sponsorship for the Olympics is nearly $1billion. There's no doubt $500 million could be raised for the landing and large sums for subsequent exploration missions to places like Olympus Mons. TV and picture rights would also be worth hundreds of millions of dollars. How many times have Apollo pics been used on Earth? Imagine if a royalty is paid every time the Mars pics are used.

Second off, what you bring back will have a huge saleable value: regolith and meteorites will be selling for hundreds of dollars a gram. Not just that - but virtually any item from the first mission will have high value to science based museums around the world who again will be paying hundreds of dollars a gram. If a museum gets just an extra 10 people per day through the doors because of a Mars related exhibit they might raise over $30,000 a year. Over ten years that's an extra $300,000 revenue.   That's why they can afford to splash out $100,000 on a little selection of objects that have been to or come from Mars.

I will refer you to my thread on the revenue opportunities when I track that down.

In the meantime I would say that once you discount the initial one-off development costs you can get the costs of transit to Mars down to $8000 per kg - being in transit doesn't really add a lot of cost even if it is a pain for the humans concerned. At  that point lots of things become possible.

#6324 Re: Human missions » Comparative Mission Archetecture » 2012-07-22 04:56:31

Impaler wrote:

This thread of for comparing detailed mission plans focusing on Propulsion methods.  GW has produced a modular NTR based mission with spin based artificial gravity

http://exrocketman.blogspot.com/2012/07 … icial.html

And I'm going to do a SEP counter proposal in equal detail, but first I'm going to try to get the ground rules established to allow as complete and apples-2-apples comparison.  I've looked over GW's mission and extracted what I think are the criteria that need to be replicated.


* Launch constraints on volume and mass of Falcon Heavy (~50 mt), with option to use other EELV's.

* Trajectory from LEO to LMO and back again bringing the transit habitat back to LEO but leaving the lander mass in LMO for it's mission to be conducted from.

* Offload 120 mt of lander/surface payload modules at LMO massing 30 mt each.

* Provide 50 mt of Habitat module/s during transit (reusable) and 50 mt of Consumable filled module/s each for out and inbound transit.

* Transit times and total mission duration of 2-3 years with interplanetary transit times of 6-8 months


I'm interested in producing a table to compare mission architectures?

What columns should the table have?  Here are my suggestions:

SSTO/or no. of stages

Fuel/propellant/engine description

Pre-landing robot and other preparatory missions, excluding
training and test missions i.e. only missions directly designed to facilitate the
landing and survival of the crew(s) on Mars  (give number of such missions if applicable)

Number of separate transit vehicles going to Mars
as part of the mission (most will be one but I favour two)

No. of crew in each vehicle

Total number of launches

Orbital assembly (yes/no)

Mars transit vehicle description... etc. (indicate if artificial gravity is used)

Transit hab description

Journey to Mars (Hohmann etc)

EDL for Mars

Immediate procedures following landing

Energy source on Mars

Habs on Mars

Use of rovers?

Main activities on Mars

EVA details

Duration of Mission

Ascent and return procedure

Total duration of mission

Comments and timeline box

Any other suggestions?

#6325 Re: Martian Politics and Economy » Creating the Cis-Lunar economy » 2012-07-21 19:45:34

SpaceNut wrote:

NeoSM you have hit the head of the nail right on with regards to sample returns ( does not matter what they are) for use via the assumptions of quantity and rate of demand that will follow if you know there is more coming back on other missions.

This is nonsense.  The market for lunar regolith at the moment is effectively non-existent. There is no supply and so no demand.  Once the regolith becomes available there will be demand.  Where from? Places like universities, research institutes, private individuals, schools, jewelry firms, artists and so on.   Unless you can say with certainty that there is say only demand for 5 tonnes and the first mission will satisfy that demand. Once one jewelry company makes a profit from moon jewelry, others will become interested. People who already collect meteorites will be fascinated to own lunar regolith and meteorites.   

I estimated there are probably at least 50,000 institutions - universities, schools, research institutes and space agencies - around the globe who would be interested in acquiring lunar regolith at $100 a gram. Do you really think Cambridge will hang back for 10 years and let Oxford get the lunar regolith first? Think of all the big companies who will pay to have chunk of regolith outside  their HQ. I think many of the lead universities would be interested in taking 100s of kgs of material.

As for individual collectors, they are mortal beings. They aren't going to wait 20, 30 years for prices to come down. They want to expand their collections NOW while they still have time to enjoy them.

And this is all before you have factored in things like use of lunar regolith in jewelry, as lucky charms in India and elsewhere.  What if 1 million people around the world per annum decide they like the idea of a 0.5 gram lucky charm.  That's another 5 tonnes each year. 

Are you really proposing that we can't skim off some of that $60,000 billion world economy in terms of people purchasing rare (it will remain rare for many decades) lunar regolith for these many purposes?

I am not sure you understand supply and demand. The technological demands of rocket launches necessarily place some limits on supply.  As long as demand exceeds supply, it doesn't matter whether it exceeds it by 10% or 5000%, if the supply remains fixed. The regolith will remain scarce.

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