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I've been banging on about that for the last few years!
I am sure it can't have escaped Elon Musk that he could mount such a mission. The only question is whether he views it as a diversion.
This article by Amy Shira Teitel about the Chris Kraft piece discusses and links to a NASA report showing propellant depots can allow BEO missions without the SLS, saving billions:
EX-FLIGHT DIRECTOR URGES NASA TO KILL NEXT ROCKET SYSTEM.
Analysis by Amy Shira Teitel
Wed Apr 25, 2012 01:00 PM ET
http://news.discovery.com/space/mercury … 20425.htmlSo this is probably the report referred to by Chris Kraft:
"Propellant Depot Requirements Study Status Report"
http://images.spaceref.com/news/2011/21.jul2011.vxs.pdfThe report discusses several scenarios for lunar, asteroidal, or Mars missions without using heavy lift vehicles by using propellant depots. It does discuss use of the Falcon Heavy in some scenarios, but others use the Delta IV Heavy. About this last, it's interesting they give the max payload of the Delta IV Heavy as 28 mT. But the highest I ever read it having was 25 mT. Anyone know what modifications to the Delta IV Heavy would allow it to have this high a payload capability?
A disadvantage of the approaches discussed however is the large number of launches required even for the lunar missions, 6 for the Falcon Heavy and 10 for the Delta IV Heavy. This is because the scenarios use the large, heavy Orion capsule, the service module, and a separate, large lunar lander, likely akin to the Altair lunar lander.
On the other hand if instead the Early Lunar Access (ELA) architecture were used it could be done with a single launch of the Falcon Heavy or two with the Delta IV Heavy:Encyclopedia Astronautica.
Early Lunar Access.
http://www.astronautix.com/craft/earccess.htmBob Clark
The only question that I could raise would be whether we have actually explored the red planet enough to really say with any certainty that there is not now nor has there ever been life there. You contend that we do know enough to say with a reasonable degree of certainty that life does not exist on Mars. However, particularly with regards to past life, I don't believe that evidence is yet present. In my opinion, it is entirely feasible that life could have been transferred from Earth to Mars, or established on Mars itself, and then as the climate fell into disequilibrium and geological heat sources cooled was simply unable to replicate itself faster than the environment destroyed it. It is possible that the introduction of life is what caused this disequilibrium to occur in the first place. While life maintains internal homeostasis, there is nothing impossible or even uncommon about an organism entering an environment and through its growth making it unlivable. I do not claim that there is evidence for this but I do believe that it is plausible and cannot be ruled out based on the available evidence.
More importantly, however, you raise a largely unconsidered solution to the Fermi Paradox: Why does it look like the universe is devoid of intelligent life? Because it is.
I would agree. We know on Earth there are lots of microenvironments - sub oceanic hot springs, deep caves etc - where there are isolated ecologies that carry on happily for billions of years.
Until we have explored those potential environments on Mars, it is difficult to say what the state of play is. Also, Mars' atmosphere is at such low pressure that the comparison with Earth is somewhat questionable. Maybe life has been reduced to a few ice worms and ice bateria??
Hmm it still seems to me that Zubrin's plan of using present time technology and sending men directly to Mars and make return propellent there most developed yet.
I think it's not serious to expect to first go to the Moon and mine there since that would just complicate stuff and not to mention make it more expensive.
And Musk seems to me more like a guy who has idea and not actual plan like Zubrin. He's holding speeches and talking about developing new technology unlike Zubrin who wants to use present technology. To do it practically today and not in 15 or 20 years the Musk way who is still more about unmanned missions.But of course another question is how much realistic is Zubrin's plan. For instance few months ago I heard him say on Coast To Coast radio how he'll be advocating for more fracking and more coal mining which seems stupid because fracking is very toxic (if you saw documentary "GasLand") and Zubrin says how he never saw documented case that anyone suffered from fracking and gas extracting - I mean that's just stupid.
Not to mention what they do to Appalachian Mountains to get coal (documentary "Last Mountain")
Musk is a player i.e. he has a fully worked out plan but isn't telling you what it is yet. Why? Because he is closely tied up with NASA, so it's all politics - he has to avoid humiliating the NASA folk.
Isn't it amazing how little news is coming out of NASA re Curiosity's findings. It's almost as if they don't want people to be interested in Mars.
Either they have got the worst PR and press team on the planet or they want to keep results confidential.
Argues the SLS as early as 2017 can be used to launch manned lunar lander missions:
SLS for Return to the Moon by the 50th Anniversary of Apollo 11.
http://exoscientist.blogspot.com/2012/1 … -50th.htmlBob Clark
I am expecting Space X to link up with Virgin Galactic in about 5 years.
Mission accomplished for Space X...
http://www.spacex.com/press.php?page=20121028
I take heart from that phrase of Musk's: "Achievements to come."
I don't think he's talking about boring old orbital missions. He still has his eyes on the prize, the ultimate prize of Mars.
As someone that plays a neuroscientist on TV, I would say you are silly.
Torrents are something you download. Not a neurological condition that causes you to swear. #@!*
LOL
Curiosity continues to be held hostage by geologist. They have done soil samples and we should live long enough to get the results.
This is "a rock."
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8336/8119653269_022fe1fe6e.jpg
MSL Curiosity on Mars. Sol 76 by txNotAlien, on Flickr
I don't agree with everything you say Vincent, but I agree with this!
Not if NASA are in charge of the programme.
mars-images wrote:Looks like someone tried to roll a joint.
Curiosity sol 64
Looks like something you find on the seashore on Earth...
I see that NASA are saying their experts "think" it is a piece of debris from the spacecraft. That made ME think!
Why aren't they absolutely sure it's a piece of debris? Surely they know every square millimetre of that machine.
Is there any chance it could be organic? Wind blown from some distant warm water pool?
Looks like someone tried to roll a joint.
Curiosity sol 64
Looks like something you find on the seashore on Earth...
I was very pleased to see a successful Dragon flight in spite of an engine out. In the absence of details, I do not understand the NASA safety rule forbidding second stage restart after a first stage problem. That caused the loss of the piggyback Orbcomm satellite, not anything to do with the Falcon-9. Bureaucracies, bah, humbug! That's why Spacex is looking for its own launch site. I hope they pick south Texas.
On the other hand, Spacex will have to get to the bottom of the engine out, even if NASA were not breathing down their neck. Something leaked somewhere upstream of the throat, that's how you get a pressure drop. Leaks get catastrophic in a tiny fraction of a second, that's why you need an automatic way to detect them and shut down, at way-faster-than-human speed. Looks like the controls on the Falcon-9 do exactly that. Bravo and kudos to Spacex for getting the safety/failsafe things right!
Leaks ahead of the throat show more pressure loss than thrust loss, at least initially on the transient while the hole is still small. Leaks downstream of the throat will show as thrust loss with no chamber pressure loss at all. You'll have to be monitoring thrust, as well as pressure, to detect leaks in the bell downstream of the throat. I would hope they know to do that. I would guess they are doing it, based on how well they have done the rest.
Leaks in either place cause errant hot gas plumes and shedding debris that very quickly damage adjacent engines or other structures. You have to worry about both phenomena.
BTW, what I said about engine and nozzle leaks applies to all rockets, not just liquids. Solids and hybrids, too.
GW
Thanks for the technical clarifications - v. useful!
I think this conundrum has been around for many years. I am sure I read something to the effect that you could take one sub atomic particle to the other end of the universe and it would still interact instantaneously with the other entangled particle.
Incidentally, they had an engine out on the way up, but the craft oeprated as designed and was not thrown off course by the engine failure. They are looking into that.
Space X really seem on top of their game.
I'd love to see a business model that went:
NASA work
Dominate satellite launches
Work with Virgin Galactic to develop lunar tourism
Establish human presence on Mars, working through a Mars Consortium including NASA, ESA and some other bodies.
That's good, but that's also far from the budget needed to go to Mars.
Says who?
Space X's income is already well over $100 million per annum. I see no reason why they won't be in the $500million to $1billion range soon given their ability to offer competitive prices for satellite launches.
Let's assume a profit on that of $50-$100 million. You can use that to service loans of maybe $1-$2.5billion. Add to that some of Elon Musk's personal wealth ($2.4billion) and the fact that a first mission to Mars would attract huge sponsorship.
It seems to me that there is enough money there to get the Mars mission going. Once lunar tourism kicks in, Space X's earnings will expand hugely and they will be able to finance the Mars mission on their own.
So Space X have successfully launched the first real business flight. Now the big money starts rolling in and Space X will be in a position to fund a number of developments including I believe lunar tourism and the first manned flight to Mars.
The only thing possibly holding them back will be the relationship with NASA. But as Space X get bigger so the dynamics of the relationship will change. NASA will increasingly rely on Space X's good will.
"Cape Canaveral, FL -- Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) today successfully launched its Dragon spacecraft aboard a Falcon 9 rocket on the first official cargo resupply mission to the International Space Station. The launch went off on schedule at 8:35 p.m. ET from Launch Complex 40 in Cape Canaveral, Florida.
The SpaceX CRS-1 mission marks the first of at least 12 SpaceX missions to the space station under the company's cargo resupply contract with NASA. On board the Dragon spacecraft are materials to support investigations planned for the station's Expedition 33 crew, as well as crew supplies and space station hardware.
Dragon -- the only space station cargo craft capable of returning a significant amount of supplies back to Earth -- will return with scientific materials and space station hardware.
Dragon will now chase the space station before beginning a series of burns that will bring it into close proximity to the station. If all goes well, Dragon will attach to the complex on October 10 and spend over two weeks there before an expected return to Earth on October 28.
"We are right where we need to be at this stage in the mission," said Elon Musk, CEO and Chief Technical Officer, SpaceX. "We still have a lot of work to do, of course, as we guide Dragon's approach to the space station. But the launch was an unqualified success."
The CRS-1 mission follows a historic demonstration flight last May when SpaceX's Dragon became the first commercial spacecraft to attach to the space station, exchange cargo, and return safely to Earth. The flight signaled restoration of American capability to resupply the space station, not possible since the retirement of the space shuttle in 2011."
Its a rock, keep it moving.
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8032/8060913751_56e9211f89.jpg
0056ML0261000000E1_DXXX_sa-c1 by hortonheardawho, on Flickr
It's obviously Darth Vader's death mask.
I agree with you louis. The public votes on the people who decide their funding.
The only problem I can see is the data transfer rate. But then again, I don't know.
-Koeng
Just a thought - is the data transfer rate limited by failure to work with ESA who still have a satellite going around Mars? If NASA and ESA worked together could they really raise their game?
Spaniard wrote:bobunf wrote:PV requires direct sunlight
No. PV can work with diffuse light.
There is no adverse effect on photosynthesis from the loss of direct sunlight, which is most definitely not the case with PV. Photosynthesis may actually increase. One study (http://www.jstor.org/discover/10.2307/1 … 1280469297) reports a 37% increase in carbon gain on cloudy days.
Also, plants survive long periods of time without light. Annual plants might survive up to 10 days with no light at all. Perennials can last for weeks and even months without light.
But, when a cloud blocks the sun, how much does electricity generation decline? About half if the cloud is thin and shadows are still cast on Earth. About 80% if the cloud is thick and no shadow is cast. About 99% for thick dark clouds covering the sky.
Obviating the need for artificial light means no need for PV panels, wiring, transformers, inverters, circuit breakers, light fixtures and bulbs; all of which requires a huge amount of on-going imports from Earth or a huge industrial base.
For clarification:
1. Reduced insolation is not really relevant to overall power production. Any PV based system will involve energy storage. I favour converting water and Mars air into methane as the best way of storing energy. So, take it as a given that we will have as much energy available as we need.
2. We can manufacture solar power on Mars at an early stage. We could use solar reflectors (e.g. polished steel or aluminium) to reflect insolation on to a steam boiler to drive a turbine to produce electricity. We can probably manufacture 90% plus of the energy system on Mars (reflectors, boilers, wiring) with a basic industrial infrastructure. Probably the connecting and gauge equipment would be imported.
3. The point is that the less insolation you get, the more your crop yield is reduced. Moreover, in the Mars context don't forget, you still have to heat your farm habs - so you are going to have to have an energy system in place.
4. With a guaranteed, controlled energy input you will maximise crop yields.
5. Hydroponics allow you to create multi-level growing systems. These are much more efficient in terms of hab space. With natural insolation systems you will need at least x3 as much space before you have to factor in your dust storm risk factor which will probably take you to X5. Building five times as much farm hab space will be incredibly resource intensive including in all those things you mention (because you still have to heat and illuminate the farm habs).
It is a great shame that we land nearly a tonne's worth of a Rover on Mars and get only a v. fitful picture of the landscape.
I am interested to know what it would take to produce a "real time" camera looking around as the Rover travels. Would it be that difficult?
NASA seems ruled by science. They don't seem to understand how important it is to enthuse and involve the public.
Every once in a while you get a really cool image that comes to light. I have often wondered what an evening would look like on Mars. Now we know. This image is from Spirit Rover sol 682. Thought we could use some eye-candy while Curiosity digs in the dirt and sends back data that we should get by the spring of next year.This would be Phobos and unknow star. Did a crop of main image to make it a little more, "romantic."
Pass the meds.....
Vincent
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8321/8050665564_f68574a415.jpg
phobos_sol682B by dfrank39, on Flickr
Beautiful image, Vincent. Very nice.
I suspect Luna is a lot easier to monetise, as it were, than Mars. There's a lot of ways that I can think of making money from Luna that don't actually require anyone going there in person - returning Lunar rocks, to be polished for jewelry; renting out rover time; the aforementioned memorial field for ashes... Perhaps enough revenue could be raised to bootstrap the next level of actually sending people there and establishing a base, which would allow for tourism and make volatile mining easier (people could actually fix the machines when they break down).
I think we have to agree the Moon will be easier to make money out of. But Mars is certainly better placed to support a self-sufficient community: it has water, better soil, a more natural day-night cycle, and a wider range of available materials.
With Mars, I think it will be more a question of the Mars economy being able to generate its own economic growth.
No one lives there permanently.everyone is a tourist of one sort or another.
People don't have to live there permanently either. There are plenty of Alpine Huts and the like which are permanently occupied, but not by the same people.
louis wrote:If you haven't got the soil, it's more complicated: you have to make the soil.
You have soil. It's just different. And making Mars soil arable is a lot simpler than making hydroponic nutrient solutions. As I said: add water, carbonated water, and nitrogen fertilizer. That's it.
The point about dust storms (which can continue for 90 days) is that the reduced light levels will mean the crops die. You can't build a thriving community on that basis. At the very least, whether you have soil or nutrient solution, you will need artificial light.
Artificial light must be a backup only. Exclusively for those dust storms. Every other life support system is dependant on power, so your power supply becomes a single point of failure. If power fails, you can't breathe. A greenhouse with ambient light is the only means of life support with power failure. Biosphere 2 found a biosystem even as large as their huge greenhouse was not stable, after a single year they had to add fresh air. But a Mars greenhouse could provide life support for weeks, or even a couple months while technicians repair the power system. Just ensure power doesn't fail at the same time as a dust storm.
Power balance: use surplus power for in-situ resource utilization, such as smelting iron, smelting aluminum, making glass, making cement, etc. During a dust storm, all power will have to go to the greenhouse, other life support systems, communications and science. Using artificial light in the greenhouse will be at the expense of ISRU.
There's never been a recorded failure of PV panels on Mars that I know of. YOu can use the PV power to make methane which is then your stored power.
Hydroponics just seems too complicated biologically and mechanically. Greenhouse with soil nourished by human and, possibly later, animal waste. Use natural light, and we have a technologically simple system with 10,000 years of experience. It will produce food and air with very little need for energy, wiring, pumps, etc.
Dust storms are not an issue with plants, which like defuse light, just what dust storms produce. If the Rutherford studies point the way to near radiation free areas of Mars, that issue will also be solved.
If you haven't got the soil, it's more complicated: you have to make the soil.
The point about dust storms (which can continue for 90 days) is that the reduced light levels will mean the crops die. You can't build a thriving community on that basis. At the very least, whether you have soil or nutrient solution, you will need artifical light.