You are not logged in.
Profit makes sense only in a money economy.
Clearly when the NASA astronauts were operating on the Moon, albeit in a short timeframe, they were not operating within a money economy.
The extent to which activities on Mars will, initially at least, be connected to Earth's money economy or part of an internal money market on Mars remains to be seen.
To refer to an increase in assets from mineral extraction makes no sense in the absence of a money economy. For instance the Mars settlers could concentrate all their energies on extracting iron ore. If they did that to the exclusion of all other activities, their colony would not be "more protifable", it would simply be dysfunctional and would die.
I think with a non-money based Mars economy, the more important balance sheet relates to the amount of tonnage per person that has to be imported to maintain the colony. That is an overall measure of the functionality of the colony (so less per capita tonnage equates to greater functionality in broad terms).
That said, I think the likelihood is the Mars colony will be tied into the Earth money economy from the outset with Mars-based activities effectively paying for much of if not all the imports.
So it will be mixed picture with Mars displaying elements of a command economy, the Earth-based money economy and a Mars-based internal economy.
Didn't like some ones definition of Profit. I have been selective, but here is the one I decided to produce:
http://www.businessdictionary.com/defin … rofit.html
profit
The surplus remaining after total costs are deducted from total revenue, and the basis on which tax is computed and dividend is paid. It is the best known measure of success in an enterprise.Profit is reflected in reduction in liabilities, increase in assets, and/or increase in owners' equity. It furnishes resources for investing in future operations, and its absence may result in the extinction of a company. As an indicator of comparative performance, however, it is less valuable than return on investment (ROI). Also called earnings, gain, or income.
Read more: http://www.businessdictionary.com/defin … z3qGojFte7
So, if you made automation which could extract a material from a dune, such as water, or Metals, that could qualify as an increase in assets, and could furnish resources for investing in future operations. And it might prevent the extinction of the company.
Trade with the Earth using its paper currencies will also be important, but yes you can make a profit or suffer a loss without it, if you are operating on Mars. Same with a greenhouse. Planting is investing. Tending is protecting your investments, and harvesting is profiting from your investments and efforts. If your crops fail, then you have suffered a loss.
But its all OK. You let me express myself. I am sure you can give me a few hand bites if you want to as well. My armor is not without faults.
Take care, until next time (I bother you).
Thanks SpaceNut. I was referring to drinking water, essentially, so the 1.5kg I was using matches that figure of 3.56 pounds pretty much.
I tend to think of the food supplies as separate, and would include any requirement for food prep water to be added to food supplies.
There is of course the issue of water for hygiene. My understanding is the ISS crew use pre-prepared wipes.
louis wrote:Let's assume humans need 1.5 kg of water per person a day (probably an
•Total Out 10.97I agree with RobertDyck that we need to look heavily at the waste stream recovery to keep Oxygen and water at the highest values of resources that we can have as being available for the crew to make use of when other systems fail as GW indicated....
I accept what you say. Such an approach would probably work. But given the nature of the risks, I think it is best to make the mission as failsafe as possible. If it costs say $150 million to ship three tonnes of water to the Mars surface, I think that would be justified in the overall scheme of things, representing as it would less than 1% of the overall mission cost. A failure in water recycling for whatever reason, would be catastrophic.
louis wrote:Let's assume humans need 1.5 kg of water per person a day (probably an overestimate in the context of a space mission). For a 3 person mission that will be something like 3.3 metric tonnes of water over a two year period. It would be a lot simpler to land that on the surface (not necessarily all in one go). Then the first settlers can prospect for water themselves and will be much more effective using the equivalent of hand-held road drills on the surface.
Surviving on Mars means stop thinking in terms of consumption. Instead think of recycling. Water does not go away, it goes in a cycle. ISS recovers breath and sweat by the cabin dehumidifier. Obviously that has bad breath and body odour mixed in. It's filtered before returning to the drinking water reservoir. Urine is collected and filtered. Equipment on the American side of ISS is already rated to process wash water, although they haven't installed a sink or shower. I have argued feces must have moisture extracted and filtered. Instead of a mechanical/chemical system, you could use a biological system.
There is room on Mars for a greenhouse, so either use a grey water sewage processing system to convert sewage (black water) into processed water (grey water) suitable for water crops. Plants will transpire moisture through their leaves, that humidity will condense on cold windows dripping down to a collection trough. I'm told that water is much better tasting than NASA's water recycling system. But you need a big greenhouse to do it.
One former Mars Society member is Terry Kok. He advocated a composting toilet instead of grey water system. He had detailed micro-biology information to support his thesis. And he built a small subsistence farm with a composting toilet, producing humus that he buries in his garden. You have to be careful with this system. Ensure you don't spread E. coli on vegetables.
One design student in the UK came up with a recycling shower. It uses a cyclonic filter, based on a cyclonic vacuum cleaner, but for water. Then a regular filter. 70% of the water that goes down the drain comes out the shower head. This greatly reduces both water consumption, and energy to heat water. The only catch is don't urinate in the shower. The system filters out soap, shampoo, grease and soils from skin, dirt and debris, but isn't designed to separate urine from water. I think this system will be used in areas with chronic water shortage, like L.A. It could also be used on Mars. Water that doesn't immediately get recycled back through the shower head would go to sewage treatment.
This means we won't need that much water.
I don't see the added value in this approach. To do any significant drilling, these drones would have to be very large (lightweight drones wouldn't be much use in my view).
Let's assume humans need 1.5 kg of water per person a day (probably an overestimate in the context of a space mission). For a 3 person mission that will be something like 3.3 metric tonnes of water over a two year period. It would be a lot simpler to land that on the surface (not necessarily all in one go). Then the first settlers can prospect for water themselves and will be much more effective using the equivalent of hand-held road drills on the surface.
Tom Kalbfus wrote:Is there any way to prospect for water using drones? A thought occurred to me, what if Astronauts spend some time in Low Mars Orbit operating drones drilling for water, and if they find some, they land at that site?
I like this idea.
Louis I agree that the "potential profitability of a Mars colony" is there but only after you get by the legal binding contracts, Rights to privilege question and then finally the legalizes that will follows to interpret the contracts followed by who pays for what. Then only once the pilgrim can afford to ship back goods do we have to trust that the ones back here on Earth will for fill the other end of the contract to pay for the goods.
I really don't think the legal issues will hold things up. It can all be framed as payment for services, if necessary - after all people orbiting in space do get paid a salary, you know - it's not illegal.
Likewise, a university would pay a Mars Corporation for the services of providing transport, life support, and habitat if they established a campus on Mars - not for tenancy of the land. They might also rent vehicles or scienitifc equipment for example.
There are no legal issues about removing meterorites and regolith from Mars - we have the precedent of lunar regolith. There may be some who argue no one can "own" the material but I can't see anything in the OST which denies such ownership.
I think the simplest solution is to land humans on Mars with sufficient water resources to ensure survival and then do the human-led water sourcing. Humans will be able to work at speed both in terms of travelling over the landscape and also drilling.
I see no problem with a Mars expedition crew operating drones or rovers from Mars orbit. But, that does presume you (at least initially) base from orbit, not direct landing from transit. That does require the old 1950's notion of an orbit-to-orbit transport, equipped with multiple landers.
My mission concepts update that ancient concept. It does have considerable merit, even today.
GW
Martienne, your post prompts a few thoughts:
1. Elon Musk of Space X is clearly committed to Mars colonisation and is using Space X (which is highly profitable, by the way) as a financial vehicle to develop the means to reach Mars and colonise it. So, there is certainly one example of a potential corporate coloniser.
2. The cost of Mars colonisation has been grossly overstated in the past. NASA has been principally at fault (possibly knowingly). Basically they got to a figure by asking each department to write a wish list. Not surprisingly, every department talked up their part of the quotation! They ended up with an absurd figure of $40 billion (probably more like $60billion today). However, a focussed mission could probably be brought in at under $10billion now with modern technology. If you spread it out over 10 years that's only one billion per annum.
3. I think you underestimate the potential profitability of a Mars colony. There are about 20,000 universities on planet Earth. Probably half of them have geology or astrophysics departments who would love to get their hands on Mars regolith, meteorites and so on. [If there are any fossils they will be in huge demand also. ] National space agencies around the world pay hundred of millions of dollars to get their astronauts to Mars - such would be the prestige. The big universities would vie to set up the first off planet satellite campus, happily paying the Mars Corporation tens of millions of dollars every year for life support and transport. Big companies on Earth would sponsor the mission and subsequent exploration - companies like Coca Cola, Toyota, and so on would love to be associated with such a mission with all the attendant publicity.
RobertDyck wrote:I started this discussion with a proposal for an advanced stage of Mars settlement. When we have towns on Mars, and one city. I suggested one corporation would lead that settlement. New arrivals would be
Employment:
etc.
I see your reasoning with this, but I think you look at corporations through rose-coloured glasses. Maybe that's how the labour market works in Canada, on a good day. But the sorts of organisations that can fund a Mars colony, in my opinion, are simply not that charitable!
I am strongly against replicating the sick structure from Earth, on Mars, particularly given that Mars is an environment where you can't just walk away, and where technically not even the air is free.
terraformer wrote:martienne,
It seems you would prefer everyone else pay for a select few elites to live in your idea of a perfect society...
Where do you get that from? I haven't made any suggestions about who pays, because I think that's the big obstacle to Mars colonisation.
.
Useful map showing abundance of water on Mars.
http://www.lpi.usra.edu/science/treiman … ater_2.jpg
If that means there is water at the two Valles Marineris sites (East and Equatorial) I think they would be interesting places to start out.
I don't think we should risk anything on a first mission i.e. would have to take our water with us, but we can prospect for water on the first mission.
Marineris City would make for a nice name for the first colony as well.
So back to choice places to put up shop from the start.
Where Should Humans Land on Mars? Workshop to Discuss Possibilities
NASA is at least two decades away from sending astronauts to another planet. There are already more than 40 proposed places on Mars where astronauts could land, set up habitats and explore. Scientists are also being asked to consider how easily astronauts can prospect for water, manipulate the soil for landing pads and roads, and possibly produce food. NASA plans to decide in the next decade how reliant early explorers will be on in-situ resource utilization. There are also engineering constraints. NASA wants sites to have blast zones for multiple cargo and crew landings, as well as crew liftoffs. All sites must be within +/- 50 degrees latitude of the Martian equator, and no greater or less than two kilometers in altitude from the planet’s average zero-elevation surface level.
Encouraging. I know some previous studies have suggested there would be little benefit from a lunar "detour" in terms of rocket fuel. But that sounds like a significant saving. Personally I feel this is v. positive. If we are going to Mars, we need to practise in hostile space environments and the moon is a good playground, being only 3 or 4 days away, to make sure we get it right on Mars.
As long as people don't think that a lunar objective should precede Mars colonisation I think this could be a positive way forward.
louis wrote:The reality I think is that it will be Space X who lead colonisation of Mars but they will use the US badge as a matter of convenience, as that will allow them to operate within the Outer Space Treaty.
I think many of the issues raised in this thread simply won't arise for several decades. We see in Antarctica there are some 5,000 people living on the continent without any effective government being in place, on the ground.
I expect Mars colonies will probably function a bit like American campuses.
SpaceX employs a lot of people that used to work for NASA after all, it is convenient for them to be in America because that is where most of the Ex-NASA talent live, most are not likely to forgo their American citizenship to work in another country like China for instance. NASA didn't do much after Apollo, but what it was doing was still quite a bit compared to what other countries are doing, NASA is still the largest Space Agency in the World, it employs and has employed a lot of people, and NASA has done a lot of things did a lot of research and then moved on to other things, never quite accomplishing much, but it is leaving a lot of pieces behind that SpaceX is picking up.
True. Another relevant factor might be the difficulty of muscling in on NASA space communications network. Maybe it's just easier to piggy back on NASA. Having said this, I found this link which suggests perhaps Space X could acquire a communications network commercially.
The reality I think is that it will be Space X who lead colonisation of Mars but they will use the US badge as a matter of convenience, as that will allow them to operate within the Outer Space Treaty.
I think many of the issues raised in this thread simply won't arise for several decades. We see in Antarctica there are some 5,000 people living on the continent without any effective government being in place, on the ground.
I expect Mars colonies will probably function a bit like American campuses.
...and why?
What are the main factors to consider, in your view, and which location best fits your criteria?
I think that the first landing site ought to be considered as the foundation for a colony. The more ISRU we can undertake, the less we have to carry to Mars, so it makes sense to begin as we should continue.
So the principle I think has to be to find a location which will allow us to maximise ISRU - with good solar radiation, water, iron ore, basalt and silica being top priorities.
A very good analysis, RD. I think you have listed all the desiderata and your location sounds good to me, subjected to verification of the availability of water ice.
My criteria:
- flat and smooth, to make landing safe. There is ice in the side walls of canyons at mid-latitudes, but landing in a canyon is not safe.
- close to the equator, because it's warm. And to provide consistent sunlight through the year. Within an arctic circle, there will be months with continuous sunlight during the summer, and continuous dark in winter. At mid latitudes that won't happen, but daylight will be long during summer and short during winter. Whether you plan for an ambient light greenhouse or photovoltaic arrays, sunlight is important.
- low altitude because that means more atmosphere over your head for radiation protection. Preferably below the datum. Ideal is 2km below the datum, which means the bottom of the dried-up ocean basin in the north hemisphere, or the bottom of Hellas Basin.
- ready access to lots of water.
- ready access to other resources, although you'll never find everything in one spot. Useful resources:
... hematite concretions: rich iron ore
... anorthite or bytownite: types of feldspar that can dissolve in acid, and can be processed to produce aluminum. Note: common Mars regolith is about 1/4 bytownite.
... white silica sand: can be melted to form glass. However, processing feldspar for aluminum will produce silica gel as a byproduct. That can be calcinated then melted to form glass instead.
... potash: potassium salt, fertilizer for greenhouse, needed for either soil or hydroponics. Found at the bottom of a dried-up ocean basin, or dried-up salt-water sea. Could be found at the bottom of a pool on the coast that became isolated from the sea.
... thorium: fuel for nuclear reactor. Mars Global Surveyor looked for thorium, found it at high altitude dry locations, not the bottom of a sea.The "frozen pack ice" found in Elysium Planitia looks ideal. It has everything but thorium. It's at 5° north latitude, so warm for Mars. Estimates by the European Space Agency are that it's 800km by 900km and on average 45 metres (148 ft) deep. That makes it larger than the North Sea. To put it in North American terms, it's larger than all the Great Lakes combined, in both surface area and water volume. NASA shrugged it off as lava, but detailed study by ESA shows it isn't lava. It was formed about 2 million years ago by volcanic activity melting permafrost in the bottom of the dried-up ocean basin. Water pooled, then froze. I would recommend landing on the coast of this pack ice, not on the ice itself. Exhaust from landing rockets could melt the ice, causing the hab to sink in. At the coast you could run a hose to the ice, and melt some for water. Since this is the bottom of the ocean basin, it won't just be salty sea water, it will be highly concentrated brine. A reverse osmosis filter will desalinate that. There should be potash deposits somewhere in the area; perhaps the ice itself will have potassium salt.
http://www.daviddarling.info/images/Ely … _large.jpg
The principle should be that energy (solar power) is freely available on Mars so for oxygen extraction and other chemical processes, the emphasis should be on energy use rather than importing complex heavy machinery.
I agree that terraforming is something of a distraction at this point.
I also agree not enough work has been done on the potential for ice structures to be used for construction. I have previously speculated that ice might be used to form air lock doors (melt to "open" the door; freeze water - i.e. expose to the Martian environment -to "close" it). Large ice warehouses could be useful. With aerogel linings, perhaps they could be used for human habitation.
You raise some v. interesting thoughts there Void. I am sure we could begin producing some sort of basic food in the existing Martian atmosphere if we put our minds to it. One thought that occurs to me is that once you have rotting organic material in a rock space you immediately raise the temperature.
However, (a) we need to get there and (b) we may just find it easier to grow food on Mars in a earth-analog pressurised environment.
Certainly Louis, err.. Apparently
http://www.damninteresting.com/warm-blooded-plants/
In this case stored fuels providing the heat in the spring to melt snow not sure if the Oxidizer is stored or breathed:
http://cdn.damninteresting.com/wp-conte … sskunk.jpgThermogenesis is rare in plants, but does occur in several species of Arum, and in the philodendron, as well as the skunk cabbage. The heat generation of these thermogenic plants is not trivial, either. Recent measurements of the titan arum “Ted”, at UC Davis, showed the inflorescence— the flower-like structure of the arum— could maintain a temperature of 32 degrees Centigrade (90 F), well above the surrounding air temperature of 20 C (68 F). The skunk cabbage can do even better, maintaining temperatures as high as 35 C, even when the air temperature is below freezing.
If a organism saw an advantage in getting a drink of water, perhaps it would expend stored energy. That could be Hydrocarbons previously manufactured, or stored Oxidizer, perhaps the salts, and also from the atmosphere, perhaps CO and O2. How the O2 would be collected is not understood, since Hemoglobin would be clogged with CO. But perhaps some different variation of the theme. So potentially stored energy, and real time obtainable chemical energy. Plus of course a solar contribution. On the surface.
I have seen articles citing water from ice contacting salts, or aquifers, or humidity from the air acting with the salts to provide water.
I have not seen addressed the humidity inside of rocks and soil, particularly the pore space in rocks, and also the "Void" spaces between discrete items composing regolith. Those pores and voids I think should have some type of median humidity, and the deeper you go as a rule the more steady it should be.
A sort of averaging of extreme humidity variations in the air, and on the surface.
So, the conduction of water vapor through the medium of the soil. This being driven by various forces. For instance higher humidity donating to lower humidity areas in general. Also there should be a skin effect on the particles, where moisture may have an affinity for some more than others. And of course ionic forces. I suppose there might be other, but I think I have said enough.
So, without liquid aquifers, can you have vapor aquifers? Might your vapor aquifers communicate with salty or not salty aquifers deep below?
Does vapor coming up replenish a fresh water permafrost, and can salts on the surface permeate that, creating a wick, and under certain temperature conditions, cause the salt wick to become hydrated?
Are some locations more prone to leak humidity upwards to the surface? Do some locations absorb humidity into the soils and send them elsewhere?
Now with or without life in them these things are of interest. Since the Equator of Mars is most habitable except for water, we are interested in a source of water there, with life or without life.
Can you create more such? Can you enhance them? That is if water vapor is moving upwards in an area, can you place down salts on the surface to collect the vapors? What if you put a glazing over that, and change the temperature profile?
Nice stuff, I think.
Energy on Mars for a few early colonists is not a problem - so the easier solution is to pressurise the water mechanically (using electric power from PV panels) rather than try to land a water tower!
Should they try to land a water tower and drilling rig on Mars? That way they could drill for water, and the water tower would provide water pressure for the astronauts so they could take a shower and have a bath. What about septic systems for flushing the toilet?
I am sure there all sorts of possibilities. On earth there are certainly organisms that can metabolise iron oxide, rather than needing oxygen from the atmosphere. Likewise there are ice worms that live in ice. It isn't that difficult to imagine an organism able to melt ice through chemical energy is it?
I have no desire to interfere with your dialog with GW, Louis. However, it just occurred to me a possible type of energy source for life on Mars, perhaps a bit unlikely, but I will offer it anyway.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/20 … 143731.htm
As I previously mentioned, a nighttime cold low should separate a precipitant of salts and a brine of reduced salt content from a combination of the two, presumed to be produced during the warmer day. If a life form could interpose itself between these separated materials, it might be able to generate power for itself by allowing the two to interact between a membrane. In the process, if somehow during the night it could capture a portion of brine partially reduced of salts by cold, capture that into a vacuole inside of it's body, and if later the sunshine on the film of protective salty soil above would warm the entire organism, then that water in the vacuole might be available as a drink of water.
RED stacks extract energy from the ionic difference between fresh water and salt water. A stack consists of alternating ion exchange membranes -- positive and negative -- with each RED membrane pair contributing additively to the electrical output. Unfortunately, using only RED stacks to produce electricity is difficult because a large number of membranes is required when using water at the electrodes, due to the need for water electrolysis.
Using exoelectrogenic bacteria -- bacteria found in wastewater that consume organic material and produce an electric current -- reduces the number of stacks needed and increases electric production by the bacteria.
I confess that this is all rough guessing, but since my income does not depend on it, no harm done, perhaps time wasted through.
So, in my mind not entirely out of the question.
And as I mentioned in my previous post, perhaps the CO in the atmosphere might give such an organism the ability to cope with the Oxidative nature of those brines that are the topic of this thread.
Optimistically of course.
I basically agree with you GW. There is no reason to think vulcanism on Mars is completely extinct in all places. There might well be some residual activity that could heat water.
Not all of Mars and its underground water is necessarily salty. One site says nothing about its neighbors, same as here.
Salt is not necessarily required as an antifreeze at Martian conditions. I've seen liquid water at -10 F (same as -23 C) and it was freshwater. Requiring salt to explain what you see in a transient event is a mistaken artifact of thinking only in terms of steady-state, equilibrium models.
I've no doubt that a lot of Mars's underground water is salty. The same is true here, and far saltier than our ocean water. Underground brines here are pretty noxious when we bring them up the well. Yet we also find underground microbes, too. One toxically-salty aquifer does not imply that they all are. Why should that be true here and not there?
All that being said, I'm going to go out on a limb here and make two predictions. (1) They will find life on Mars as underground microbes, but not until men go and stay awhile and drill deep, in lots of places. (2) They won't find it with any of the contemplated robot probes, or from remote sensing.
Assuming life is found, then ethics demands that we not terraform Mars. Unless, that life is so similar to ours that it would flourish under more equable conditions. Something to think about: such life might be an infection danger to us if it did flourish better at more Earthlike conditions.
I keep remembering the long-discounted microbe fossils inside the Allan Hills meteorite some years ago. That's the sort of life that our people and our instruments have to be able to detect.
GW
In other words - a very small and manageable power requirement. I think electric automobiles operate around 5 times that. So we are looking to power 20% of an electric vehicle and we can do that with large solar arrays.
I think you can almost ignore power calculations in terms of getting crews from Earth to Mars, in the sense they are not really critical. The critical issue is cargo and rocket fuel.
But that is why I argue for splitting up a mission so you pre-land lots of equipment and supplies with separate robot missions. This makes it all much more doable with current technology.
Landing then becomes the key issue - how to land those pre-supplies.
Checked power calculation (with urine processor):
toilet: 375 watt peak, 0.071875 kWh per day
water processor: 915 watt peak, 1.40 kWh per day
urine processor: 424 watt operating, 108 watt standby, 255.2 watt continuous
oxygen generation: 1.73 kW continuous
CO2 removal: 0.259 kW continuous
dehumidifier: 0.6 kW continuous
circulation fan: 0.312 kW continuous
Total: 3.2 kWWith the equivalent of 5 Tesla Powerwalls, that will give the ITV 10.8779 hours, or 10 hours, 52 minutes, 40 seconds. That does not include power for communications, electronics, lighting, or control of manoeuvring systems. Just power down to 100% life support.
I said in another thread that the surface hab will require more, I suggested 2 Mars solar days. That's 49.32 hours. That will require a battery equivalent to 22.7 Tesla Powerwalls. Again that only includes power for life support. The surface hab will require a big battery.
Also note; I believe the Tesla Powerwall uses lithium polymer batteries. It has the same charge to mass ratio as lithium ion, but lithium polymer is substantially less expensive. But lithium polymer can be much more easily damaged, and if an intermal membrane is ruptured it can balloon up with generated gas. A lithium polymer batter has an aluminized outer bag rather than a metal casing; if that is ruptured to allow air in, as soon as oxygen touches the lithium anode it will burn, generating thick black smoke. When I worked at Micropilot, they got some of the first lithium polymer batteries for the drones they were testing. To test software for the autopilot they manufactured, they used a model airplane kit purchased from a local hobby store. The software didn't always pass the tests. Sometimes they lost control, had to follow the drone until it ran out of fuel and crashed. One crash did damage a battery, it did balloon up. The technician looked up procedure to properly dispose of the battery. Instructions from the manufacturer's website said to cut open the battery outside, in a well ventilated area with a breeze, and stand upwind. He did that, and a few of us watched. It had a red glow as the lithium anode burned, and thick black, stinky smoke. The technician said he'll never do that again. This reminded me of reports that a Boeing 787 Dreamliner filled with thick black smoke while taxiing to the runway. They had to stop and evacuate passengers. To save fuel, that plane does not have generators in its engines. Instead it has a lot of lithium polymer batteries, which have to be charged when the plane is fuelled. Obviously one of the batteries ruptured. The Tesla Powerwall has a hard case to enclose and protect the batteries, they should get damaged. Our Mars lander will have to do the same.
Ps. That black smoke will contain lithium oxide. That's a psycho-active drug. That's what bipolar patients take to even out their mood swings. I suppose being mellow is not all that bad, but you really don't want to breathe that.
Looks like we might be in for an interesting announcement:
One thing you can be sure of - the various space agencies are not telling all they know about protecting against space radiation through medication.
I'd like to add that if the USA devoted that much to Mars, they would be receiving huge income from the rest of the world (from other space agencies who would want to buy into the project, from sale of Mars regolith and so on). I say "so on" because the real limiting factor is NASA's absurd dislike of commercialisation.
Thanks RobS -
Fascinating stuff. Makes Musk's plans a little clearer!
If it was anyone else than Musk one would be highly sceptical about such claims - but I have always been a Musk believer and think he will win through on his plans.
Stephen Petranek has a new book out called How We'll Live on Mars. It starts with Werner von Braun and his Mars plans, noting pointedly that von Braun viewed the moon as useless wasteland and never wanted to go there. A lot of the book focuses on Space X and includes a lot of information Petronek got in an interview with Musk. In it, he says Musk said the "Mars Colonial Transport" would have a first stage and a second stage and a mass 2 to 3 times that of the Saturn V, so that means it would be able to put roughly 250 tonnes in low Earth orbit. There, the second stage would refuel and would fire again to serve as a trans-Mars injection stage. The second stage would land on the Martian surface, apparently with the human habitation module. Apparently Musk said that the MCT had two stages for Earth launch and one for Martian launch. That may explain the confusion over whether the Mars Colonial Transporter refers to the passenger module or the launch rocket; it refers to both. The reusable second stage would be just about the right size for a return to Earth for use to send more people to Mars.
Petronek also asked Musk about the idea of settling 80,000 people on Mars and Musk said no, he meant 80,000 people going to Mars every 2 years! At $500,000 per person, that would be about 1/4 of a percent of the GDP of the US, or 40 billion dollars. Musk said that any serious effort to settle Mars deserved 1/4 to 1/2 of a percent of the GDP of the US, and 80,000 people was roughly 1 per 100,000 inhabitants of the Earth, assuming 8 billion people in a few more decades. They would go in ships carrying 100 at a time, so that would be 800 ships launched into orbit and awaiting the right month or so to head out for Mars, presumably able to rescue each other in the process.
For me the question is:
Why can't the agencies pool resources to establish a Mars colony if they can do so with regard to the ISS?
Certainly a combination of NASA, ESA, JAXA and ISA should be more than capable of reaching the planet within a couple of decades. They work on behalf of about 2.1 billion people on Earth! The total annual budget for these organisations must be well in excess of $30 billion. We probably only need about $2 billion per annum for 10 years to establish the colony.
http://www.spaceflightinsider.com/wp-co … 2ea7_k.jpg
Expedition 44 crew members: Flight Engineer Kjell Lindgren of NASA, left; Soyuz Commander Oleg Kononenko of the Russian Federal Space Agency (Roscosmos), center; and Flight Engineer Kimiya Yui of the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), right. Photo taken at the Cosmonaut Hotel in Baikonur, Kazakhstan on Tuesday, July 21, 2015. They are on their way to the orbital station on a “fast rendezvous” route. This option means that the trip will last six hours, and the spacecraft will make four orbits around Earth. In opposition to a two-day rendezvous routine, which is more economical in terms of propellant use, the “fast rendezvous” route provides a shorter and less stressful journey for the astronauts.
Soyuz TMA-17M Crew Rockets to Orbit, Bound for Five Months Aboard Space Station
Present plans call for Kelly and Lindgren to perform two EVAs in the November timeframe, following the robotic transfer of the Pressurized Mating Adapter (PMA)-3 from its current position on the Tranquility node to its final position on the space-facing (or “zenith”) face of the Harmony node. This will allow it to provide a backup docking interface for Commercial Crew vehicles—Boeing’s CST-100 and SpaceX’s Dragon V-2—from 2017 onwards. Both PMA-3 and PMA-2, the latter of which is affixed to the forward port of Harmony, will receive International Docking Adapters (IDAs), which are compatible with the Commercial Crew vehicles.
The PMA-2 interface will be the primary docking port, whilst PMA-3 will provide a backup. Unfortunately, the loss of IDA-1 aboard the CRS-7 mission means that IDA-2 will fly aboard SpaceX’s CRS-9 Dragon and will now fulfil the IDA-1 role at PMA-2, whilst a new docking adapter (IDA-3) will be assembled over the coming months from spare parts and launched at a later date for installation onto PMA-3.