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Typical Chinese approach they will wait till they are ready in probably 2007 and create a short term space station which they will trumpet to the world so gaining more national prestige at really no cost to economy.
I cant find it but there was an article that the heavy launcher long march rocket that China needs to be a serious contender for Lunar missions and larger space stations has yet to get the go ahead. It appears that the cost of the development is the major sticking point and I wonder if it does go ahead that we will even be told of its start so that China can surprise the world again.
I think it is a realisation that NASA and the new programme are great goals but there is to much money going out across the spectrum. The leaders of the USA have to be asking where is the money to come from to continue to pay for Iraq and the rebuilding of a whole state and the city of New Orleans.
The estimate of this is $200 Bn and the price keeps going up and up add to that the calls to fix the levy system so it wont happen to other threatened states and cities and you have a money drain. Lots going in but not enough to fill the hole epecially for a country in such a deficit.
I do support the VSE but I can see what must be going through the heads of the leaders of the USA we just cannot raise taxes and we have to find the money. Iraq and the costs there will not be cut so other places have to be and im sorry but the VSE and NASA is becoming more and more a likehood of major cuts. Even offseting by spacing out the programme will likely damn it as it comes down to what do people really care about. And space programmes will not happen if the people are told taxes have to be raised to finance it.
The radar cross section of an F117 is probably about 1sqm (1 square meter) and this with all the radar absorbing techniques and its shape ensure that it looks like the background it flies through. This is not the case though with the wake of disturbed air that follows behind the aircraft, the contrail which can be seen.
Then again any active radar itself can be targeted and as such removed. That is why the theft and selling of the properties of the B2 bombers heat radiation is a problem as unlike Radar, heat recognition is a passive system and theoretically systems can be designed to look just for that signature.
Still for all this the uncertainty it is that the likes of the F117, B2 and F22 that are on the way out. All manned fighters and bombers will eventually be replaced by UAVs. The weakest element in modern fighters and bombers is the human pilot and all the techniques used to improve the Human have reached the point where an UAVs ability to take ever increasing G in turns and to have smaller and smaller cross sections not to mention their expendability are giving them the edge.
Sic Vis Pacis, Para Bellum
The advance and spread of technology has changed what was considered the standards of war. Aircraft now if seen are dead and nothing including the F117 and B2 bombers are invisible. The priority now is to hit hard and from range that is why cruise missiles are increasing as air defences are getting stronger and the cost of fighters and Bombers too expensive and there risks too high.
Do you think the Chinese dont know what makes the B2 Bomber work or that the claim that advanced French radars can lock up both the F117 and B2.
Engineer charged with selling B2 secrets
If they did not know they do now and the man above probably made sure of it considering he invented the system.
So the Navy is looking at what is the best way to ensure that targets bombarded and not be stopped and the DDX is the best way at the moment but it cannot stop. In the future as war conditions get harder it will be better for a naval warship to be able to bombard at even further distances. Mass drivers are being considered as a replacement to "conventional" guns.
(ps Sic Vis Pacis, Para Bellum = Who wants peace, prepares for War)
Here is a report from the Lunar Exploration Analysis Group (LEAG) conference that was held in Houston. Seems they have found that due to the unique nature of the soil that Apollo returned that there are some very interesting properties and the best way for using them.
I like the bit on just how fast you can make a solid out of Lunar regolith. That idea for instant walls will certainly make lunar building very interesting. 1 road a mile long built easily in a single earth day is very possible
A bit too soon for that the Atlas 5 was in its hangar when the special fabric doors failed apparently there was damage to the rocket and its launch cradle. Prelimary reports indicate that this damage should be fixable and the New Horizons mission launched on schedule.
Its alright Rxke I do understand.
We unfortunatly do only have theoretical experience of Moon engineering and a lot of our practice and skills comes from making what is in effect artificial lunar soil. We do though have experience of making beams in space it was one of the shuttle experiments early on and it worked well. Making the components for that machine needs mining and smelting. It is possible to make it of artificial lunar glass from the abundance of silicon but again that is theoretical.
Lunar science and engineering is a science that will I hope take off especially now that there will be a return to stay. Along with the now flourishing science of Robotics.
There is another alternative that a group of countries get together and create what could best be called a port authority for the Moon with the ability to grant licences and to allow economic utilisation. But since this port authority type of control would require a treaty to allow it to be formed it would in essence overrule the bad bits of the outer space treaty while keeping the bits that are important.
We can already make A Frames from Lunar material and attaching cells to it should not be too much of a problem. .
Can we? I mean, all of this discussion is nice and dandy, but AFAIK the only paper re: solar cell manufacturing in-situ 'proved' it was theoretically possible, because the needed materials are there. No plans re: hardware whatsoever exist.
Yes we do theoretically know the best way of doing a lot of things but our actual knowledge on the best way to operate takes an actual prescence. And we need a lot more knowledge of the actual materials and there properties than we currently have. A decent geological survey would be nice you know. Actually a decent map of the whole moon with an accuracy of better than + or - 100km would be even better. Incidentally this is all stuff that will give us help for future Mars missions too
But how many nations would even bother with this theoretical colonist if he or she did start a process of colonization for which the rides are not government sponsored or paid for?
Would these governments even care if I had a cargo of He3 or even just plain old moon rocks to deliver to the highest bidder for having done my own investing?
They would bother a lot if they thought it was an attempt to colonise a whole planet, it would appear to them as a rich country getting all the resources and becoming an Empire at there potential expense. They would see it as a Cecil Rhodes attempt.
If you had a cargo of lunar rocks or that of He3 then expect them to want there "fair" share of that material not the profits the actual material. They would likely say it was for "research" but that would of course not be the case.
Disagree. Robotical deployment will prove hard even for basic 'pavement' cells, so stick to that, at least initially.
The engineering, deployment, maintenance,... costs to make robots that build frames etc will probably be much higher in the short term than sticking to the 'pavement' approach. Once you have your pavementbot (TM), you could start selling power to users, then use that money to invest in more elaborate designs. Also, I'm betting horizontal or slanted tiles will get dusty at about the same rate, low gravity and stickyness of the Lunar dirt in mind...
Solar cell manufacturing plants will be heavy and power hungry. Making them mobile though a useful idea is dependant on that plant being able to recieve power and a supply of materials to make cells with. Fundamentally the plant should be in a fixed position and attached to its own fixed power supply and materials brought to it. The finished solar cells will then be taken by telerobotic means to where they are to be emplaced and then connected to the growing power net. We can already make A Frames from Lunar material and attaching cells to it should not be too much of a problem.
Putting solar cells on A Frames allows for there cleaning to be done a lot easier than simply having them layed in pavements on the ground. It improves there time in the sun and also Thermal properties can be kept reasonably constant.
There is that possibility but for a Nation to be recognised it must also have to be recognised by those other countries or have the ability to be so strong that it can project its force out of its own area to the point you just dont want to mess with it.
A one way mission by a settler will im sure be seen as colonisation and theoretically in the Outer space treaty that is seen as not allowed. Colonisation being defacto an attempt to own a territory by the nation state that the mission originated from.
We just have to admit that that the outer space treaty is totally inadequate and as such when it comes time will be dropped. My only concern is that there is a lot of good stuff in the treaty that will without much needed change be dropped with the rest of the treaty.
I have no hope that the UN will see that the outer space treaty has problems look at the Moon treaty as an example that it is only a law of the sea writ large.
Sorry John for that digress to space politics but back to the topic.
There is an alternative to attempting to make photovoltaics cells with silicon or gallium arsenide, the standard types we currently use. The problem with the silicon cells are that the various types all require a degree of "doping" and this doping is always of a material that is rare on Earth and likely to be almost non existent on the Moon. Gallium arsenide is a very rare element off the planet Earth.
We could create solar cells out of the Ilmenite that is current on the Moon. The Ilmenite will with the Moon being a reducing enviroment will be up to 20% by volume of the lunar regolith. It has a doping element but this is actually Iron oxide and we know this exists in quantity on the Moon as well. There is a problem with this cell in that it has only an efficiency of between 15 to 19%. It has one great advantage though in that it is extremely radiation hard unlike the Galium and silicon types.
Still if we want to be sure of a good constant flow of electricity then we must ensure that the cells are made larger than normal. Up to 40% bigger in size if we are to be realistic for silicon and galium based cells but ilmenite is naturally tough so we can get away with normal size but we will still make them larger to ensure a long life.
One other point is that I have noticed that Robots and the various plans designed to create solar cells often leave them as what I can only call paving. This is nonsensical and actually wastes the cells as Lunar regolith is not even. Add to this that it also wastes area and produces more current loss and with lunar dust it also allows for them to be occluded too easily. The best way to get cells is to put them on an A frame and though the rear side cells stay dark for 50% of the time it also allows an increase in area and for the use of superconductors to transport the electricity. The A Frame will shield the sun from the superconducting power wire and with dark areas being up to -233 degrees then we can get them to work and what one cell produces can be made available all across the power grid.
So where will Biospheres international be based where is its home address, where do we send the bills
Like any large business entity, Biospheres will contract with accounting service providers at multiple Terran locations. New York, Moscow, Shanghai, Bangalore, Anguilla - please choose the service center that best suits your needs.
And get taxed by all of them. A true extranational will need to be able to have its own infrastructure completely independent of a country. People have considered using the internet as a posibility to be a viable means to create such an entity. But as greenpeace have discovered this is not an option that is either legal or would actually be taken seriously. Ever heard of sealand?
it also cannot sell from Boeing Russia what Boeing USA has developed that the USA considers high tech or militarily valuable without the appropiate United states licence.
Pretending, for the sake of argument, that US export controls are actually effective at preventing the transfer of some important technologies, you're right, Boeing Russia must contract with Definitely-Not-Boeing Research and Development Company next door to develop a substitute. Because it has already been done and DNB employs PhDs graduated from US universities, the substitute is usually fine, sometimes good and, every now and then, better. No matter what, it is definitely cheaper.
Yes but as noted to get into space will need a lot of ground based infrastructure and a lot of money. To purchase this you need a base and a means of credit flow. You also will have to be able to bargain with these large companies.
The internet is a case where the thing appeared and the legal system had to play catch up. The Moon and the space in general though is a case of physical property and there is already a very negative law enforcing what is allowed and not allowed in space.
The parallels are not exact, of course, but there are parallels. The treaties are full of deliberate loopholes. They prevent nothing during the research and development phase, and by the time profits were being generated their only effect will be to require addition of the phrase "we come in peace for all humankind" to the corporate mission statement. International law is nowhere near as settled as you seem to believe. Extranational law is ours for the shaping. It's a frontier. That's why it's fun, right?
Unfortunatly the one thing international law has a lot of is property legislation. It is this that is only second to religion that has started wars. Look at the possibilities that are forming from the melting of the Artic. In the 19th century there would have been a major landrush to gain these new resources but they are taking it to arbitration though they are using the Law of the Sea even if the USA is not a signatory. This is actualy forming what could be described as a point of law, and this point of law and with the similarity of the outer space treaty and Moon treaty with the law of the sea is likely to mean that such will be used against lunar exploitation.
Now if we only could have a case where there becomes a base which is not subject to the Moon or Outer space treaty. Of course that requires that a country that has the capability to get to the Moon and exploit it actually also not be a member of any current treaties. About as likely to happen as finding "unobtanium" in the next week. Our best hope is that we can put pressure on the goverments of the ESA group and USA and Canada to get the Moon Treaty dropped and the Outer space treaty revised.
Which sort of puts the UN in the drives seat to start funding off this world (moon, Mars and beyound) and not just LEO missions from any space fairing capable nation. It should as well be setting up a global disaster network of satelites for all nations. But how would they fund such things?
This is the UN that systematically failed the people of Darfur and Iraq, that has shown its Oil for food programme to be an example of corruption from the highest office to the lowest. The UN is an example of a rampant Bureaucracy, The good it does do is often more expensive than is necassary due to its very high overheads. The WHO a UN affiliate is an example where for every doctor or nurse in the field there is a paper pusher behind them. Would I trust the EU to do what is necassary to develop space if it somehow gained a means to do so. Of course not.
Biospheres Extranational will do business with Terran associates who have been appropriately certified. We will, of course, require that our Terran associates comply with their ambient legal environment.
So where will Biospheres international be based where is its home address, where do we send the bills
For the companies that matter to be able to sell you anything you must give that registery number to them and also be in a situation where they are allowed to sell to you.
"Companies that matter" will rapidly become "companies that used to matter" if they are unable to participate in the extraordinary opportunities being pursued by Biospheres Extranational and its competitors. Of course, "companies that matter" don't need to be told this. Did you know that Boeing Russia ( http://www.boeing.ru/ ) has over 10000 employees?
Boeing Russia is a subdivision of Boeing international an american company. In Russia it must obey all local laws but it also cannot sell from Boeing Russia what Boeing USA has developed that the USA considers high tech or militarily valuable without the appropiate United states licence. In short one company but two hands. And since all launching eguipment and a lot of material used in space is high tech and potentially military grade it often falls under needing licences. Developing a shell company as it is called is fine but that shell company in international law is considered the same nationality as that of the parent company.
The outer space treaty is the reason these companies will not so invest
I disagree. The commercialization of the internet was fiercely contested. In the end it stopped no one. However, it did enable bold first-movers to eat the lunch of the dinosaurs. The tipping point was the advent of enabling technologies.
The commercialisation of the internet in fact the internet in general is not useful as a symbol of what would happen in space. The internet is an example of the latest type of property that of intelectual property rights. The internet is a case where the thing appeared and the legal system had to play catch up. The Moon and the space in general though is a case of physical property and there is already a very negative law enforcing what is allowed and not allowed in space. Enabling technologies for Lunar development would be great but as noted who would pay to devlop such when they may or not be allowed to use that technology to make profit. In essence if you develop an effective TSTO spaceplane but can only sell a couple to the goverment then you cannot make enough of a profit if any to pay for the development of such a TSTO spaceplane. That is the situation the outer space treaty imposes on us. With a decent section on allowing use of and claims to property on the Moon etc then companies will be very interested in that TSTO spaceplane and you can sell more. Sell more and prices come down not only of the spaceplane but actual costs to get to space.
activist pressure groups.
are invited to register for exclusion from the benefits of space commercialization. We'll do our best to comply with their wishes, although it may be difficult because the benefits will be so extensive.
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Do not simply ignore pressure groups they can have voices in the wrong ears. The law of the Sea is an example where small third world goverments and activists have in effect stopped commercialisation of the sea bed and stymied the western world. These small countries will want a share of the pie without paying for the risk. Currently if you start mining PGMs and transport them to Earth you are more or less quaranteed to end up in court as smaller countries and activists try to force you to hand over there rightful "share" of what is the whole worlds property.
There is only one extranational entity that is the United Nations there is no other existing extranational organisations and to create one for space would in all likehood be physically impossible.
I hereby incorporate Biospheres Extranational for the benefit of all humankind.
Another extranational entity comes into being. Their number and wealth grows hourly. Their only limitations: the ones they place on themselves.
Congratulations on a named company but also immaterial you will have to register that company at a location if you wish it to have the ability to purchase anything. For the companies that matter to be able to sell you anything you must give that registery number to them and also be in a situation where they are allowed to sell to you. So not only is your company going to be registered on Earth it will also have to obey the laws of that country it is registered to. Go to a country that is not signed up to the outer space treaty and you will probably find then that there is no way that you will be sold the hi tech military grade equipment to be able to send people to space.
Extranational means literally when it comes down to the outer space treaty an organisation based of this planet and attached to a country based off planet.
So until the treaty is changed or until one of the space powers decides to legally walk away from the treaty, private enterprise is constrained and uncertain. It cannot raise the capital to pay for the Billions.
Private enterprise already has billions. Once the decision is made, it will chose a friendly (and hopefully equatorial) nonsignatory to make into a space power. What developing nation would turn down the wealth of a half dozen worlds? They will fight to be chosen. The various treaties will be amended to support commercialization soon thereafter.
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Private enterprise has lots of money. Certain companies that would be very interested in investing in off Earth enterprises the likes of PGM mining and power sourcing make Billions of dollars profit a quarter. But they will not invest there lifeblood capital if they are unsure if they will be allowed to make a return on that investment. The outer space treaty is the reason these companies will not so invest as they frankly think they will struggle to do so and spend a lot of time and money in legal proceedings. Get real large companies will not touch space except for goverment contracts until they think they can make a profit. Get one company making a profit and then you get a lot of bandwagon hoppers. With a lot more call for people off planet then prices will fall and money will become available for space shuttle 2 TSTO or SSTO projects.
But as noted above just for a company to decide to invest heavily in a non signatory country is not enough. That company will have to be able to purchase materials and technology to be able to operate. Not to mention that small country will find itself in a situation where it is under terrific pressure to conform to the treaty either by other countries or by activist pressure groups.
I'm sure extranational entities would be highly motivated to maintain good relationships with national and international entities - particularly those nations that haven't signed the treaty. The information requirements are not overly burdensome. I agree that there should be no non-scientific research. Again, I don't see the problem.
However, as you say, it is probably just as easy to lobby the appropriate politicians and have the law changed. It is widely recognized that multiple biospheres are required to ensure long term human survival, so it is just common sense.
.There is only one extranational entity that is the United Nations there is no other existing extranational organisations and to create one for space would in all likehood be physically impossible. To first of all have enough population to be able to be taken seriously will be impossible without heavy resource utilisation and the only way it would be able to pay its way would require it to be selling resources and products back to Earth. All of which it would not be able to set up before it had the population and personel to be able to say it was an extranational organisation or country.
The Outer space treaty was ground breaking when it first appeared it stopped the likehood of the Moon and space becoming an armed camp and gave the various space pushes a protection that has kept weapon firing in orbit from happening. It just went to far saying that all of space is the property of all of mankind is good but useless without the ability to use these great resources. In this is it failed. The Moon treaty is another matter it really is an attempt to bring the law of the sea to space.
So until the treaty is changed or until one of the space powers decides to legally walk away from the treaty, private enterprise is constrained and uncertain. It cannot raise the capital to pay for the Billions. The fundamental reason for law is to enshrine what a person owns and what they are allowed to do with the property. For private enterprise to be able to raise the funds to make succesful use of outer space it needs to be able to be sure of what it owns. If they find a very rich source of anythingyum then they will want to be sure that they can use there find for a profit. They must have the ability to show the investors that they own or have rights to a real tangible substance and time to do it in. They must be able to send anythingyum to Earth and not be forced to give it away to any country that asks for it.
Iraqs oil industry has ground to a halt. It is due to a combination of sabotage, bad weather and the very slow repair/modernisation to Iraqs oil infrastructure
Ownership by extranational entities is not forbidden and so is permitted.
I don't see the problem.
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One point that is the Moon treaty you are phrasing and unlike the outer space treaty it is hardly been taken up. Now the outer space treaty does put limitations on us.
As Spacenut notes an extranational body must therefore be off this world and also not an organisation or goverment that is linked to one of this world. The problem for buisness and private entities are that they are citizens of countries of this world. The treaty is very specific and states that any launch must be informed in good time to the UN and also that it will be the country of origins duty to ensure it does not fall on anyone and that it does not interfere in any other countries missions and reasonable liability to damage done. It also specifically notes the difference between goverment and non-goverment organisations and notes that they are the responsibility of the Nation they came from.
The Moon treaty is worse it actually notes that it only allows enough material mined or used to allow exploration or for scientific study. It does allow bases to be put on the Moon and for material to be utilised to improve the base and supply it.
So any buisness or private entity who wants to go to the Moon and utilise PGMs or something similar will simply not be allowed they are considered to be part of a nations scientific study and are bound to the treaty and as such cannot do what is needed. Also they cannot hide the fact as they are duty bound to inform the UN cannot build bases that block other countries from areas of the Moon nor stop observers from entering your base and check to see what you are up to.
Lets hope that this treaty gets updated and though there are good sections to it is badly let down by its attempt to be a law of the sea of outer space. Lets also hope that the Moon treaty which has only been taken up by India and France(space powers) is just a treaty that will never become an international prime directive.
I know we have a thread but will place this here since we are discusing insitu resources.
The 1967 outer space treaty is an issue that will need resolving.
Property rights on the moonUS National Academies of Science will hold a special meeting on Wednesday to clarify the issue. Space Settlement: Homesteading on the Moon will discuss the policy implications of a lunar colony and whether privately funded missions should be allowed to play a role.
Behind the (fake) lunar title deeds for sale over the internet, there is a serious issue. The wonderfully named United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs, which governs, well, outer space, is clear.
Its 1967 Outer Space Treaty says no nation can claim ownership of any celestial body (including the moon) and that all nations must agree to their peaceful use.
The UN says that private expeditions count as national activities and are covered by the treaty, which has been signed by all the major players. Lawyers disagreed and a second agreement - the 1979 International Moon Treaty - was drawn up to explicitly ban private ownership of lunar real estate
Is it time to have a meeting to void this law so as to allow for ownership or are there other ways to resolve this...
As stated this is one of the most important things that would allow creation of a private space industry if they thought what they found they could mine and keep and make a profit out of it. At the moment as we have said many times on this forum frankly it is not worth any private money to be spent on private missions only to service goverment exploration. Needless to say that also completely stops private money for the likes of TSTO or SSTO.
Gah I hate that Moon treaty it has sections I do approve of but they are simply a consolidation of previous space treaties and agreements. But that no private ownership of any outer space entity or terrain will keep us on this planet.
One other point to do with the Moon is that there exists the proposal to create Lunar mass drivers. If these can be built reasonably easy enough then they could provide a means to launch payloads towards the asteroids, this would obviously save a lot of money and fuel as a mass drivers only requirement when built is electrical energy and that the Moon will have in plenty whatever long term base infrastructure is done. And since my previous "asteroid volatile miner" was to be built of mainly Lunar materials it could easily be that they could be mass produced to send to the NEOs by Moon industry some of the garnered volatiles would go back to the Moon to increase industrial and personnel capacity but also that some would go to the Earth orbit/L4,L5 to be used for infrastructure there. This should provide an income source for a long term lunar base.
Hopefully we will find the volatiles that we need on the Moon deposited by the asteroidal "rain" in large quantities as well as water in large quantities but if not then we will have to rely on Earth supply in the short term. Some means have been thought about how best to do this. One is obviously direct tankage where we send tanks of the materials that are reguired. But the tankage is an expensive option as that is a whole mission just delivering one tank group. Other means have been considered to increase the amount of "missing" elements available for recycling. When we send parts up to the Base/s then we should send them in protective packaging that we can turn into needed elements. When we send astronauts there meals will be rich in the needed biological nutrients so when nature happens we can recycle these for use in the farms. These will engender a waste not mindset that should actually be useful as an example to the world below.
This is based on the phenomenon called the NAO or North Atlantic Osscillation. If the Oscillation is positive or that there is a higher pressure around the azores compared to a lower pressure around greenland/iceland then the winters tend to be warmer and wetter. This year the oscillation is believed to be Negative and as such a case where the winter is colder and drier.
Previous times where the oscillation was negative was 1960 and also the early 1940s. This oscillation was one reason for the defeat of Hitler and the Nazis as the winter those years was so cold due to it and they had just invaded the USSR.
Anyway the plan is with Britain critically short on gas supplies (11 day supply) that a 3 day week may have to be taken out to ensure gas supplies are rationed.
On the permanent site before they moved the forums I put forward a robot miner that was to mine volatiles from NEOs and this to be transported back to the Earth system.
The mining robot would approach an asteroid and since many are of a nature covered in asteroidal regolith it would attach itself either by harpoons but also by using corkscrew drills to gain a purchase in the regolith or to drive down to a more solid surface. There was also a possibility of using a glue to adhere to a strong surface.
When this had been accomplished the mining robot would move a band of solar cells to circumgate the asteroid to ensure reasonable constant power. When accomplished it would drill into the NEO and by using heat pump out the volatiles found inside. This would be tanked but slightly distilled with water and the other chemicals seperated. using some of the volatiles the waiting tug would exchange a tank and would be back on its way to the Earth/Moon orbit.