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tarraforming bacteria are very sexy in the "seed it and forget it" sense but you still run into the water problem. This was the crux of Sagan's error in his terraforming scheme. Even if you are able to engineer a critter that can live in that heat and radiation, it will still need to live in some kind of water to get by. At least every lifeform we know of does.
You can crash comets for a while but you still have a long way to go if you want oceans. Also, you have to deal with the water loss due to solar wind. I think a cooling period and some kind of magnetosphere will be the first things needed. without them, any water imported via comets or hydrogen will heat up the place even more and escape.
This is getting ever farther off topic but you're right about doing small scale terraformation on Earth. Since the industrial revolution the impact of human greenhouse gas production is barely noticeable. What I mean is 1 or 2 degrees rather than the hunred or so needed on Mars. Therefore any counter greenhouse efforts will probably not have a drastic impact unless they are done with more effort than the sum total of every industry on Earth.
When I'm talking about terraformation, I'm thinking of things like halon and methane factories, massive orbital lenses and sun-shades. Stuff that either delivers or starves the planet of tens of terawatts. Stuff that changes the composition and pressure of an atmosphere by tens of millibars.
It's that kind of stuff that we can't afford to chance on Earth. I don’t think people would even allow it due to the fear factor. You might be able to get CO2-> O2 + C factories approved but unless it’s doomsday or something, not many people are going to like the idea of huge lenses of space.
As it is, there's at least 4 reasons I can think of why that wont work.
Let's hear them.
If it is quick like that, we might be able to display a little optimism for "quick" terraforming. Any thermodynamic buffs reading this?
So I was thinking some more about harnessing solar power in the inner solar system before it gets all weak out by mars.
Let's say you have an umbrella made from shiny Mylar. It doesn't have to be Texas-sized, just 10 meters across or so. Something we are capable of launching toady. if set to face the sun, it would focus the sunlight to a point on the sunside. Now if you put a collector on the "handle" at that focus point, you could redirect all the sunlight over that 78 m^2 into a small area. If you took that point and fed it to a fiber optic cable, you could direct it anywhere you want, like Mars.
I haven't done the math yet but you could probably strike a balance between its orbital speed of the sun, light pressure and distance so that it orbited the sun at the same angular velocity as Mars, thus, always between Mars and the Sun. Not directly of course but just off to the side to collect and redirect sunlight that would miss Mars. By the time the light from a pinpoint reached mars, it would probably spread out enough to hit the whole surface.
They would have to have a gyroscope to make corrections in their orientation and a little smarts to make sure they are facing Mars and "leading their shots" to compensate for the speed of light delay.
All in all, they don't sound too complicated. The best thing is that they don't rely on asteroid mining or other science fiction stuff (although that would help). We could build and launch them today.
You would have to launch thousands of them but that also allows you to do it little by little. erecting a 500km mirror above Mars is something that people might always put off into "the future" but sending up a couple dozen inner-system-collectors every year sounds doable. Especially if they cost only a few thousand bucks apiece.
I know that you'd spend more on stuff like electronics and fiber optics on these than with a simple huge Mylar sheet but keep in mind that you'd be collecting sunlight closer to the sun where it's brighter. More bang for your buck. Also, it would be harder to take them down by sabotage or accident and turning them into a super weapon would be pretty tough.
Anyone want to go into business?
Does anyone have any idea how long it would take to cool the planet with a sun shade? It seems to me that if you cut off all the incoming sunlight, it wouldn't take too long for the temperature to drop to something livable. Maybe a couple decades tops.
That's just a wild guess but is there any merit to it? What about partial shading? If we were able to just erect a shield to cover the center of the planet would that do the trick? Just so that the only light that hits the surface is on the morning, evening and polar regions.
Perhaps we wouldn't need to make a shade the size of the planet but rather the size of the moon. That's still freaking huge but a good deal more attainable.
If cooling the planet that way is quick, what are the real bottlenecks? In my crazy scheme of hydrogen importation from the gas giants, the importation process seems like the bottleneck.
If we can cool the planet quickly and figure some way to get a lot of hydrogen fast, the time span might not be the 1000-5000 years that a lot of people assume.
Personally, I think that we need to demonstrate that we have any aptitude at the effort here before we jump to entirely new systems.
Wouldn't it make more sense to practice on dead worlds before putting up gigantic lenses, mirrors and sheilds in orbit of a living planet. I'd perfer that we learn the ropes on a place where a miscalculation wouldn't cost 100 million lives and 5 trillion dollars.
I just had a thought about using some kind of ramscoop or lens to collect solar hydrogen. Since Venus lacks a magnetosphere, it is already receiving solar hydrogen over a surface area of over a hundred million square kilometers. Apparently that's not enough to start converting the atmosphere otherwise we'd be settling there now.
If we want to double that amount, we'd need just as big of a hydrogen trap. If we want to get a hundred times as much we get into sizes to big they are laughable.
Does this make sense? I don't think getting hydrogen from incoming solar wind will supply enough to do anything but supply a small orbital outpost or something.
Actually, if I'm not mistaken, hydrogen will react with CO2 directly. Venus' pressure and temperature are in the right area for it too. The trick is getting enough H2 to Venus to do the trick. My math shows it's something like 3x10^19 kg of H2 to convert the whole atmosphere to water and carbon. It seems like getting that much in a magnetic trap is going to be slow going at best.
Creating an honest to God magnetosphere might be on the order of difficulty of building the whole world from scratch. The best solution I can think of is to put a big electromagnet or web of them at the L1 point to act as a shield for the incoming solar wind. It would trap particles which I guess you could use but I think the quantity is going to be pretty low.
CF4 non-toxic? That's nice!
According to [http://ptcl.chem.ox.ac.uk/MSDS/CA/carbo … oride.html]this CF4 is "Asphyxiant at high concentrations." That goes for a lot of gasses including CO2. It's doubtful that the concentration of CF4 would every be as high as CO2 and we breathe just fine right now.
REB,
Thanks for the props. I’m also convinced that bringing H2 to Venus is the only way to go. If you grab a comet from far out, you will still need to have energy to split the water to use as a fuel. Plus, you have a lot of waste oxygen to deal with. Getting hydrogen from one of the outer gas giants won’t be easy but I’m sure that if intelligent uses of gravity slingshots are used, you can conserve a lot of energy. I’m more concerned about what kind of craft would be up to the task and how many trips it would take. Some breakthroughs in material science could shore up some of those issues.
As for the day length/spin problem I think crafty use of mirrors is probably the way to go for the first few thousand years. As someone posted before, it would take 5000 years of spinning if you were able to harness all of the incoming sunlight. So that’s a distant goal at best. However you could fake it if your front shade could cycle between dark and translucent on a 24 hour cycle. Likewise, you could have mirrors at some modified L2 points to act as some bright “full moons”. Those could shine on a 24 hour cycle too. Hell, you could probably work it so that day and night were planet-wide. Such mirrors would have to be M2P2 craft with charged dust suspended in them.
I don’t know about that planetary shell idea. You really only need to shield the light coming on from the front. Why use thousands of miles of fiber optics if you can redirect the light with mirrors and no medium but space?
I wasn't aware that PFCs and CFCs were toxic. In fact, I'm pretty sure you can breath them just fine provided you have enough O2. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong.
Since powering greenhouse factories isn't going to be as immediately important as heating and powering settlements, they would probably use whatever power was used normally. That's probably going to be fission. Perhaps fusion when it comes of age. Maybe solar or wind if they want to be really passive about it.
I'm unsure about the amounts but what I'm really curious about is the mixture. The closest thing I could find was [http://www.users.globalnet.co.uk/~mfogg/marsfront.html]here. It looks pretty incomplete but promising. It points out that a mixture of greenhouse gasses will be needed to get an optimal greenhouse effect. Both different types and different concentrations will be needed. This seems like a good project to follow up on. Perhaps a terraforming research project for the Mars Society could be formed.
the idea with the mirrors close to the sun is that they would focus it to a small area. If the concentrated light could be redirected from a small point with fiberobtics or something, you could direct it to one place. It would still fan out but you would have a nice little baby star near the sun.
A couple problems with this are that the things would have to be in some kind of orbit which would take it out of the line of site for some time. It also could be used as a weapon if some nut wanted to put the earth through a bad heat wave.
Hey chat
I guess it boils down to how much energy it will take to build and put a magnet constellation at a modified L2 point versus how much heat it will deliver over its lifetime. That applies to any infrastructure proposal to now that I think of it. It would be a matter of running the numbers but it might be better to just spend that energy as waste heat into the atmosphere.
However...
At some point, Mars will need some kind of protection from solar wind. My pet idea is just such a magnet constellation but used as a shield. I guess if it is decided that something like that will be needed in the long run, you might as well use it as a radiation lens at first. Anything coming from the sun is bound to add some heat. It will make going out on the surface even more deadly but you can't exactly go out to tan as it is now.
Any idea on how much heat the planet gets now via solar wind? If we could saw, double it how much would that be?
To insert another pet idea, I’ve been thinking about focusing lenses too. The thing with a lens at Mars’ L2 point is that the sunlight is pretty weak by the time it gets that far. KSR mentioned Mercury “lasering” out power to the gas giants in Blue Mars. Wouldn’t it make sense to have a set of collection mirrors in the inner solar system to gather the sunlight where it’s strongest? If say 100 km^2 were focused and reflected from a point of 1 m^2 and pointed at Mars, it would probably disperse over most of the planet’s surface. That way, you’d get a lot more power per square meter of your mirror.
Getting H2 from Earth or comets involves cracking water. That means energy. Another thing to consider is that you end up with a bunch of oxygen that you need to do something with. I guess you could react it with the 3 bars of nitrogen to make the Venus the happiest planet in the system.
Also, remember that sending H2 form Earth means that we'll have to give up a sizable percentage of our water. I don't think too many people will like that idea.
One thing to note; when I ran my numbers, Venus ended up with about 10% of the water on earth if you turn the atmosphere to water with hydrogen. you'll still need s shade of some kind to keep the sun side from frying and the moisture in the atmosphere from keeping the greenhouse effect going. There would be plenty of exposed land to live on since the water would of course settle. The poles would probably be the first habitable parts.
given the present composition of the Venutian atmosphere, the big problem is where to get excess hydrogen. A catalyst can only work when it's got something to work on. Adding water from cometray impacts can be useful but the importation of pure hydrogen would be better. I'm not sure how much solar wind hydrogen impacts the planet. I'm guessing that it's a trivial quantity but it's worth looking into as it's a 'free' source of the material.
Not to beat a dead horse but the gas giants look like the place to get it. I know importing gasses is unpopular but a little hydrogen goes a long way. Uranus (yes, ha ha) has a hydrogen atmosphere and an escape velocity of something like 21km/s. Is it feasable to send a tanker aerobreaking through the upper atmosphere to fill up and then back down to Venus for a drop-off? It would still take a while but I'm betting that one tanker of H2 would be more than a year's worth of solar H2.
I guess you could put Venus and Mars at the Earth/Sun L4 and L5 points. Still, moving the planets is absurd. Teleporting...
Back to comets, does anyone have figures on how many comets it will take to make an atmosphere and some oceans? Unless they are the size of our moon, I'm guessing it will take quite a few. What about a buffer gas? Unless the comets contain a good amount of nitrogen or some noble gas, you still need to get that from somewhere.
Please don't say things like "that's at least 50+ years off".
I will say this. You still need water to make any biological process affective.
As far as crashing comets go here are my thoughts:
If you send it hitting the surface at like 1% C, you're probably going to add heat. However, if you are able to park the think in L2 , chip of bits and send them toward the planet at such a speed that they'll melt before they hit you will probably have a net cooling effect. It might not be much. Something like letting an ice cube melt in a hot room. I could be off about this. I'm no good at thermodynamics.
In the interest of spinning the planet faster, you would probably want to strike the planet in the direction of rotation. Again, probably won't have a huge effect but every bit helps.
Does anyone know how many comets this will entail? Crashing comets into Mars isn't necessarily all about adding water. Venus however is much bigger and almost devoid of water so comets or hydrogen is the only option of getting it there. It seems to me like it would take millions to provide a sizable fraction of the water we have on Earth.
I'm still rooting for Hydrogen from Uranus
If you use carbon fixers that produce oxygen you will end up with over 90 bars of oxygen. That will kill the greenhouse effect but any lifeform in that environment would burst into flames of their own accord. I suppose you could crash an iron asteroid to consume some of the O2 (making it another red planet) but that might take a lot of asteroids.
Of course dumping hydrogen into an oxygen rich atmosphere would generate a lot of water. That will make things hot since it's exothermic. Plus there's the problem of getting something like 1.0x10^19 kg of hydrogen to Venus. Uranus looks like the place to get it (ha ha) but it would still be a big undertaking as we’ve already discussed.
I agree that bacteria is the way to go on Venus.
Since Venus has everything we need to make a viable world other than water it is the best candidate.
You've touched on the solution and the problem in one stroke. Since Venus has no water, the bacteria would have no medium in which to grow and process the air. We would also have to seed it with an airborne species which I don't think yet exists. Perhaps you could start it with an ice comet crash but once they use up all the hydrogen from the water, they'll die off.
At least that's the gospel according to Zubrin.
It can be explained by general relativity. Unforunatly, I am not sure how.
I think you're thinking of Mecury's strange orbit. I also can't explain it but it involves relativity and it made sense when I heard about it.
As for Venus' long day, I think that's just the luck of the draw during formation. If we had evolved on Venus with a 4 month day, we would be posting ideas of how to slow down Earth so we wouldn't go crazy with such a quick day.
kippy - The He3 mining schemes I'v seen involve big balloons floating in the upper atmosphere of Jupiter. The problem is that if you stop there, climbing out of the gravity well is VERY difficult. I suppose if you use that He3 to power some sort of futuristic fusion drive, it's not to bad, but the amount of energy spent is gigantic.
Jupiter is probably a bad choice then but Uranus "only" has an escape velocity of 21 km/sec. 2/5ths of Jupiter and only twice as bad as Earth. It would take longer to get there but it would be easier to get it out. It’s also a lot colder so you would heat up less as you zoomed through the atmosphere.
You can tell I'm not giving up this idea without a fight
Sun shades are something that an engineer can doodle on a piece of paper but just can't be practically built. A reflective shade to raise the temp of a Martian polar cap is one thing. A shade that's blocking a significant portion of the total solar energy hitting a planet is another entirely. See the Mercurt terraforming thread for how crazy solar shades end up getting. I suppose that a Venutian shade is less crazy than the Mercury one but it's still very impractical. For one thing, you're talking about a structure that's a significant fraction of the diameter of a planet, massing billions to trillions of tons. If anyone has any suggestions as to how to build one of these, I'm all ears. Furthermore, if anything fails, your ecosystem rapidly fries.
Big shades are going to be a pain in the ass but not a showstopper in my opinion. Big sheets of tinfoil or mylar probably won't work because of deployment, tearing, etc. Consider though an electromagnet. It could be solar powered and made to cover a large area. The magnetic field would be able to hold charged particles so all you have to do is sprinkle charged dust into it and you've got a shade.
Getting field as big as the planet would be daunting but you could use several tethered together and put into a spin to keep them in place. It wouldn't be full coverage but you'd be able to block a good deal of the solar wind and sunlight. Best of all, you can add more dust easier than erecting a new sheet or mylar. likewise, you can gather it up if you want to let more light through.
well if fusion is ever adopted the gas giants will be the big storehouses. If they can get to the He3, they should be able to get the hydrogen too. Maybe not though.
If the hydrogen is added to the atmosphere and you get 90 bar of water, all you need to do to cool it is put up a sun shade. pretty much every description of Venus terraforming includes one at some point. once you get a big water rain, the albedo will go way up if you end up with some oceans.