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#27 Re: Interplanetary transportation » COTS - status » 2016-05-13 12:23:40

RobertDyck wrote:
SpaceNut wrote:

I hear that there is a bit of a delay for the Boeing's Starliner....Boeing Starliner schedule astronauts slips 2018 means only SpaceX can wean NASA off Russian transportation by next year.

Bad move. Very bad. If SpaceX successfully delivers crew to ISS, more than once, replacing Russian transport before Starliner flies? Then why would anyone want to buy Starliner? And if SpaceX lands Red Dragon on Mars before Starliner first unmanned test flight?

Has Old Space ever come close to competing with SpaceX? They more or less exist thanks to political patronage, and to keep SpaceX honest. Thankfully Elon is truly dedicated to the cause, and not to the shareholders, but there is no guarantee he will always command the company.

#28 Re: Interplanetary transportation » On Orbit fuel depot » 2016-05-09 22:03:24

With the price of launch plummeting thanks to Elon's amazing reusable rockets, these are looking much more viable than they used to.

Considering a fuel delivery system is little more than a second stage with some extra plumbing, and the on-orbit or on destination utility of the second stages pressurized volume, the dream of a fully reusable launch system is all but realized.

Of course the MCT will once again overturn the table on space architecture, but only thing really lacking is a Bigelow module sized for the Falcon Heavy. It could probably match the ISS in volume on a single launch.

#29 Re: Interplanetary transportation » Space X - If at first you don't succeed... » 2016-05-05 23:34:04

The JCSAT-14 first stage just successfully landed on "Of Course I Still Love You" from a Geostationary trajectory! At night! Just as their commentators where saying that they weren't expecting to get the stage back from such a fast trajectory!

13177427_10157404729395131_8248276146563776059_n.png?oh=10c0987b62b07054c9b97c71f2792a04&oe=57B709E2

13147802_10205883533834790_649881390274589776_o.jpg

Oh yeah, and they also successfully delivered the payload to it's intended orbit.

#30 Re: Not So Free Chat » What does Donald Trump mean for our Space Program? » 2016-05-04 20:29:06

When and if he takes office, commercial space will have nearly all the pieces needed to go back to the moon in earnest. If he directed the full power of his ego towards an all commercial architecture, we could do a lot more the same amount of money.

#31 Re: Human missions » Elon Musk plans unmanned mission to the red planet, by 2018 » 2016-04-28 13:37:18

Supplies sure, but your limited to a meter sized hole in the top to get it out.

#32 Re: Unmanned probes » New Red Dragon Mission? » 2016-04-27 14:31:10

NASA and SpaceX seem to have made it official...

SpaceX plans to debut Red Dragon with 2018 Mars mission

SpaceX has entered into an agreement with NASA for a Dragon mission to Mars, set to take place as early as 2018. Known as “Red Dragon”, the variant of the Dragon 2 spacecraft will be launched by the Falcon Heavy rocket, ahead of a soft landing on the surface of Mars. The mission is also part of an agreement with NASA to gain further data on Mars landings.
...
These plans involve the Red Dragon conducting a propulsive landing on Mars, following its launch on a Falcon Heavy from SpaceX’s Pad 39A at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC).

Previously, Mr. Musk has claimed Dragon 2 has a “much greater reach”, thanks to the increased performance of the FH, with the rocket expected to conduct a debut launch this year.

“Dragon 2 is capable of transporting scientific payloads to anywhere in the solar system, with a liquid or solid surface, with or without an atmosphere. So Dragon is really a crew transport and science delivery platform,” Mr. Musk said, speaking after the Dragon 2 vehicle successfully conducted a Pad Abort test under the NASA Commercial Crew Program milestones.

“When boosted on a Falcon Heavy, Dragon can go pretty much anywhere, so we’re excited about exploring that possibility.”

Utilizing Falcon Heavy, Mr. Musk stated that Dragon will be capable of transporting two to four tons of payload to the surface of the Red Planet, with varying options for other destinations.

“With Dragon launched on a Falcon Heavy, it can go pretty much anywhere in the solar system, because that’s a heck of a big rocket,” he continued.

“Dragon, with the heat shield, parachutes and propulsive landing capability, is able to land on a planet that has higher entry heating, like Mars. It can also land on the Moon, or potentially conduct a Europa mission.”

All the pieces are there, the heat shield, the aerodynamics, the SuperDraco retrorockets, ect, but I still can't see the capsule as an effective payload delivery system. Either you have to get through the heat shield, which as far as I know is not designed to come off without expensive modifications to the base design, or your going to use up so much of the payload weight to get the payload out of the main hatch of the capsule, or your going to have to so butcher the entire capsule that your going to lose whatever economy of scale your where out to gain by using the capsule. It's like stuffing a turkey through the beak.

Maybe going down through the heat shield is simpler than I'm giving them credit for, and then it makes a lot of sense. I just haven't seen anything to indicate that is an option. If they are going to make the next launch window, they've got to haul.

If going through the shield is an option, how practical would it be to launch with an ascent stage missile in the trunk, and have it dock with the main hatch in transit, and then put samples into Mars orbit for pickup. Probably not this time around, but for future missions.

#33 Re: Science, Technology, and Astronomy » Colonizing the planet "Ocean" » 2016-04-23 11:08:37

Have you heard of the Seasteading Institute?

The biggest hurdle would seem to be the structural limitations of known materials versus the the power of the sea. Anyone can build a floating platform on the water, but would it last long enough to justify the cost of construction against repeated storms, or worst, tsunamis?

It would seem to me that to survive those threats, one would have to submerge the entire platform to endure those threats, which complicates everything.

#34 Re: Interplanetary transportation » Space X - If at first you don't succeed... » 2016-04-08 18:52:53

They did a static test on the last recovered stage within a week. They are probably going to want to fly a couple of these with ballast until they break them before they get paying customers for these, but there is precious little room in the manifest for that. Brownsville can not come online soon enough.

Oddly, they could use this one for the Dragon 2 abort test later this year, but thats flying out of Vandenberg.

#36 Re: Interplanetary transportation » Space X Latest Launch » 2016-03-05 16:29:34

They still launched the payload at a fraction of what anyone else could, at least domestically.

They might eventually work out the landings for these high speed, high mass GEO payloads, or they could just use older rockets for these missions. Even the best 1st stage is only going to have a finite number of missions in it. Maybe after several LEO missions they send them "out to stud" on a GEO launch.

Should I try to get the trademark on "Poseidon's Glue Factory"?

#37 Re: Life support systems » Cattle » 2016-02-19 11:32:01

The specific breed plays a big role in feed conversion. Dexters, for example, are more efficient, and a fraction of the size, which makes them much easier to manage.

And if you really want red meat, ostrich is far more efficient. But you can't milk it.

#38 Human missions » A solid lead on Planet X? » 2016-01-20 11:59:55

Excelsior
Replies: 27

New evidence suggests a ninth planet lurking at the edge of the solar system

Astronomers at the California Institute of Technology announced Wednesday that they have found new evidence of a giant icy planet lurking in the darkness of our solar system far beyond the orbit of Pluto. They are calling it "Planet Nine."

Their paper, published in the Astronomical Journal, describes the planet as about five to 10 times as massive as the Earth. But the authors, astronomers Michael Brown and Konstantin Batygin, have not observed the planet directly.

Instead, they have inferred its existence from the motion of recently discovered dwarf planets and other small objects in the outer solar system. Those smaller bodies have orbits that appear to be influenced by the gravity of a hidden planet – a "massive perturber." The astronomers suggest it might have been flung into deep space long ago by the gravitational force of Jupiter or Saturn.

Telescopes on at least two continents are searching for the object, which on average is 20 times farther away than the eighth planet, Neptune. If "Planet Nine" exists, it's big. Its estimated mass would make it about two to four times the diameter of the Earth, distinguishing it as the fifth-largest planet after Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune. But at such extreme distances, it would reflect so little sunlight that it could evade even the most powerful telescopes.

Confirmation of its existence would reconfigure the models of the solar system. Pluto, discovered in 1930, spent three-quarters of a century as the iconic ninth planet. Then, a decade ago, Pluto received a controversial demotion, in large part because of Brown.

His observations of the outer solar system identified many small worlds there – some close to the size of Pluto –and prompted the International Astronomical Union to reconsider the definition of a planet. The IAU voted to change Pluto's classification to "dwarf planet," a decision mocked repeatedly last summer when NASA's New Horizons probe flew past Pluto and revealed a world with an atmosphere, weather and a volatile and dynamically reworked surface.

A planet of that magnitude, I hope, would be a game changer, not only for exploration, but culturally. We need a frontier to remind us constantly of what really matters, what it really takes to live, and what we are really capable of.

Further, how do we get there? It seems that this would require quasi-interstellar propulsion technology. The possibilities are really exciting. It's not clear yet, and probably won't be until we get real pictures, whether its a super-earth, or a gas dwarf, and what we can do with it. But in either case, it probably has it's own harem of moons.

#39 Re: Human missions » Titan City: Your vision » 2016-01-20 08:29:17

JoshNH4H wrote:

Sure, but what then does Saturn have that other places don't?

I was thinking of importing materials to the surface from easier to manage sources in the Saturnian system. Titan's atmosphere might make it safer to inhabit than the other surfaces there, but construction materials from the smaller moons will be readily available long before we find them on Titan.

Overall, floating habitats in the atmospheres of the outer gas giants themselves may be more viable than the "cryomoons".

#40 Re: Human missions » Titan City: Your vision » 2016-01-19 22:23:58

JoshNH4H wrote:

One of the cool things about Titan is that you can build a space elevator pretty easily by suspending it from Titan's L1 point with Saturn.  I calculate an effective breaking length in constant 1 g of about 330 km (Can supply my code), which is well within the limits of something like Carbon Fiber.  I don't know what will be bringing people to the Saturn system in the first place, but easy transportation between worlds is a good reason to stick around.

That would solve the material problems.

#41 Re: Human missions » Titan City: Your vision » 2016-01-18 21:43:51

There is a lot to learn about the surface and subsurface conditions of Titan. What is the surface composition, and will it melt from beneath our feet from the construction process and heat of habitation? What materials are readily available?

Further architectural questions are raised by the .15g. To what degree does that need to be overcome to enable sustained human life and its supporting agriculture? And how would you do it?

Assuming those issues are settled, the basic architecture need not vary a great deal from anyplace else. Depending on the restrictions that the extreme temperatures place on the design, you can have a large, flat, circular concrete or concrete analog slab is placed on the surface, or you lift the entire thing on pylons and have a bowl shaped "basement". On top, geodesic glass dome is built on it, with the interior heated and pressured with a shirt sleeve atmosphere. A dome provides the best defense from winds, and the latter produces an ellipsoid, with twice the volume to work with. The overall structure can span multiple kilometers, with hundreds of meters of "airspace" to play with.

Within the top half, a lower profile inflatable canvas dome is inflated, and the interior is spray coated with an insulating urethane foam. Within that, a layer of reinforced shotcrete is applied to both the interior and exterior of the dome, producing an all but impervious air tight structure that is equally capable of supporting activities on its outer surface. This surface, and the dome above it, constitutes a controlled greenhouse, where a park can be placed. There is no real purpose in using it for agriculture, so it will mainly be a recreational space. It must be assumed that the glass dome will be punctured from time to time, and since agriculture space will have to be all controlled anyway, it might as well be under the concrete.

Within the concrete dome, you can build anything you want in it safety. I suspect you will want to have some sort augmented gravity centrifuge torus system. Entire modular neighborhoods can be built within these tori, which in turn, can be stacked into high rise structures, providing augmented gravity for home, office, and agricultural space. Other endeavors that benefit from the local gravity with have it. Those not satisfied with the ultra high definition camera views of the natural surface can go topside and frolic in the greenhouse park, relativity certain that if something happened to it, they could get below in time.

#42 Re: Interplanetary transportation » SpaceX Falcon 9R launch » 2016-01-18 14:45:13

Excelsior wrote:

One wonders if they will still make the effort to recover the second stage. While the first stage represents the vast majority of the cost, if you can land a capsule on a pad, you can land the second stage using all the same pieces. If nothing else, that is valuable pressurized volume that you've gotten to orbit. Waste not, want not.

After the addition of the Dreamchaser spaceplane to the rooster of delivery vessels last week, I couldn't help but note the potential of a spaceplane platform as a second stage. The potential is even more vivid with the more tubular yet similarly functioning X-37 platform. It's a tube with control surfaces and a heat shield. What do we need for a recoverable second stage? A tube with a heat shield and some means of a controlled landing.

Which is not to say that it is without challenges. The biggest is probably how to effectively interface the 3rd stage/payload on top of a fragile, heat shielded, nosecone. Plus balancing the added weight and performance. But I think as reusable launchers mature, overall performance will increase, overcoming the additional weight requirements.

#44 Re: Interplanetary transportation » Space X - If at first you don't succeed... » 2016-01-17 17:34:25

Their Facebook page is reporting that leg #3 didn't lock into place.

Also, there where 12ft seas.

I wonder if there is a point at sea common enough where they could put a permanent platform, while maximizing any launch.

#45 Re: Interplanetary transportation » Space X - If at first you don't succeed... » 2016-01-10 13:55:53

I looks to me like they could pushing a couple angles here...

1) Reversing course and landing back at the launch pad cuts into their lifting capability, which is fine for some missions, but they want to use as much of their ballistic arc as possible to maximize performance.

2) The only other way to increase performance is launch from a pad closer to the equator and recovering their boosters there would require platforms anyway.

#46 Re: Civilization and Culture » New New York » 2016-01-04 12:45:40

The biggest issue with cities on Mars is how do you protect them from meteorite impacts. While space architecture, inherently designed to function in harsh environments independent of a planetary biosphere is naturally more resistant than it's earth based counterparts when the population is dispersed, a concentrated population center is extremely vulnerable.

#47 Re: Civilization and Culture » New New York » 2016-01-04 12:16:51

While I wholeheartedly support sending New York City to Mars, I'm not sure why you would want to recreate it there. Building a city from scratch capable of supporting that population is centuries away from being an issue considering the space available. There is simply no reason to cram everyone that close together. Keep in mind that New Amsterdam was founded because of the strategic and economic importance of the Hudson River. While cities on Mars are still likely to crop up around transportation hubs, their location is likely to be fairly arbitrary considering that not only is there no large bodies of waters to float our goods around on, we have, or will have, mag-lev trains that will allow use to float our goods where ever we want.

#48 Re: Interplanetary transportation » SpaceX Falcon 9R launch » 2015-12-22 16:48:07

A fantastic technical achievement. But sticking the landing is just half the battle. There's a big difference between their Grasshopper test flights and this operational launch, so this is still virgin territory. Now they have to pick that booster apart to make sure its reusable. And then they have to fly it a few times without picking it apart to prove the concept truly viable.

Still, they have already reduced launch costs considerably, and are on the cusp of slashing them in a transformative way. Its a testament of what one can do when you answer to a vision and not to shareholders.

One wonders if they will still make the effort to recover the second stage. While the first stage represents the vast majority of the cost, if you can land a capsule on a pad, you can land the second stage using all the same pieces. If nothing else, that is valuable pressurized volume that you've gotten to orbit. Waste not, want not.

Combined with the inaugural flights of the Falcon Heavy, the Dragon 2 capsule, and the BEAM module all next year, the pieces are falling into place. Poor Bigelow is basically stilling on their hands, waiting for affordable access, and it's right there. We are also due to see some renders of the Mars Colonial Transporter early next year, and after last night I think he will strike while the pad is still hot. It's unclear if that entails just a new launcher, a much larger capsule, or a full transit and surface architecture. There is a lot of ground work to be done.

I'd still want a Lunar Return to Stay before the decade is out. And other than surface hardware, there is very little left that would need to be produced. Providing that service can propel SpaceX's Mars development, just as providing service to the ISS has gotten them this far.

#50 Re: Not So Free Chat » [Movie] The Martian » 2015-10-10 14:59:50

So, has anyone actually seen it?

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