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When would large bodies of liquid water become stable on the surface? .... And we sure wouldn't need to fertilize the water with iron.
Hi MarsRefresh, everyone.
I smiled out loud over the iron fertilizer thing. No, I can't see iron being the limiting element in plankton growth.
The question of when water will become stable depends on if you count water with ice on top of it. Also the salinity can lower the melting point of ice of course. Water is very dark so it absorbs heat well.
Currently Mars is so cold that super saturated brines last for a surprising amount of time (minutes) before they evaporate. If we increased the pressure 4 fold, we should be able to get stable hypersaline brines in the warmer equatorial regions. EDIT: I found that hypersaline brines can lower the freezing point of water by 60 C. 30 degree drops are quite easy to achieve.
As we add pressure and warm the planet you end up in a race. The higher pressure makes water more resistant to evaporation. The increased temperature makes it more likely to evaporate. The kicker is when a significant amount of water vapor is in the air, that depresses evaporation and makes liquid water much more likely.
If we can get the pressure up to 100 mBar, then the freezing point of water will be ~0 C and the boiling point is ~60 C. (It will still evaporate in the dry atmosphere.)
So in answer to your question, it won't take much to make local brines stable on the equator. But for lakes and seas, we want temperatures a bit over zero and pressures around half a bar and up.
EDIT:
The link below from NASA says that liquid water can exist on about 30% of Mars' surface now. (It won't boil but will evaporate since the air is very dry.) However the water has to be at just the right temperature. If it is slightly colder it freezes. If it is bit hotter it boils. (Dissolved salts will increase this temperature range a bit.) However, if we increase the air pressure and temperature a bit, the temperature range where liquid water is stable is much higher. Note the phase diagram in this article shows how the range between ice and vapor expands as the pressure goes up.
Warm regards, Rick.
To recap: so our atmosphere might now look like:
Composition:
- CO2.....55.0 mBar
- N2..........3.36 mBar
- Ar...........0.1 mBar ?
- O2..........0.012 mBar
- H2O........0.01 mBar (rising with increasing temperature.) ?- Various trace gases ~0.001 mBar
- C2F6.....0.00003 mBar
- C3F8.....0.000125 mBar
- C4F10...0.00001 mBar
- SF6........0.000045 mBar
- NO2.......0.00001 mBarTotal: ~58.5 mBar.
Hi everyone,
OK, the above numbers are where I had got to in Terraforming Mars' atmosphere. We had warmed the planet to out gas CO2 (further warming the planet) and then had dropped a lot of iceteroids to add N2 (and other sundry gases).
One thing that the above atmosphere mix does not take into account is the amount of time it takes for all those rocks to be moved. If it takes 200 years to get the N2 concentration up, then we have 200 years of warming and the CO2 concentration would rise higher than what I guessed above. How much it would rise is very hard to say. Likely there are huge amounts of CO2 clathrate on the planet but we won't see much of that freed until the temperature approaches 0 degrees C for at least part of the year at 40+ degrees latitude.
Also a lot of water has been dropped on the planet. This will freeze out as ice and snow. (Breaking up some dusty CC asteroids to darken the snow would be good but in the long run blowing Martian dust will dirty the snow naturally.)
I have reached the point of outright guesses here but likely the CO2 level will have risen from 100 to 150 KPa (0.1 to 0.15 bars). This will allow people to walk on Mars with out pressure suits. We have enough N2 for nitrogen fixing plants but the land is too cold for much in the way of water OR planets.
Nickname has pointed out that high CO2 concentrations are toxic to some plants. This is something I hope to find time to research more. However there are some simple plants that can be used to increase the O2 concentration so it is not a complete show stopper. We are also hurt by the high UV flux on the ground.
However, I think that we are reaching a wall. We will need more big engineering to take us to the next level (adding enough O2 to the air to reduce ultra violet at ground level). So I will assume that people keep pumping super greenhouse gases into the air and that bigger solettas are put up to warm the poles. We will assume that at 50 degrees latitude we have summer temperatures over 0 degrees C.
We now have a lot of ice melting each summer.
Martian dirt outgased a couple percent O2 when it was warmed and got wet. (The Viking experiments.) Some think this was because of native Martian life, others postulated exotic soil chemistry. (Altho no one has been able to come up with soils that mimic the effect so that hypothesis has some problems.) In any case we will get some O2 for free as soon as we wet the soil. With flowing water we should get some cyanobacteria living in pools or in lakes under a skim of ice. O2 will now be pumped in small dribs and drabs to the air.
Now UV light breaks up O2. The free O atoms combine with O2 to form ozone (O3) which block UV light. Until we get a proper ozone layer high in the atmosphere O3 will be formed near the ground. Ozone is highly reactive and will damage life, plastic domes, etc.
I have found NO data that discusses how high the O2 level must be to 'use up' all the UV high in the atmosphere. One thing to consider is that the Martian atmosphere will be deeper than Earth's air (Mars has a greater scale height). As the ozone layer builds up it will likely form a far deeper layer than Earth, originally extending down to ground level. The ozone will likely be quite dilute at ground level. (I hope!)
As the O2 level increases, more and more of the ozone will appear high in the atmosphere. The UV flux will drop on the surface and life will find things much easier, increasing the rate at which O2 is pumped into the air.
This will likely take 500 to 5,000 years. Thruout this time, more CO2 will be leaking into the air as soils warm and clathrates melt. Bacteria will be slowly freeing N2 from rock and soil and releasing it into the air. Note that our new life is not likely lowering the CO2 level very much. They draw down CO2 as they build their tissues but when they die and rot they release it back into the air. To lower the CO2 level we must BURY the CO2. That is the last big task for terraformers.
So at the end of stage 3, (perhaps 3,000 to 5,000 years after the first mirrors went over the poles) our atmosphere might look like:
Composition:
- CO2...300.0 mBar (or more?)
- N2........15.0 mBar
- Ar...........0.1 mBar ?
- O2..........1.0 mBar
- H2O........1.0 mBar
- Various trace gases ~0.01 mBar
- CF4.......0.0002 mBar
- C2F6.....0.0004 mBar
- C3F8.....0.0015 mBar
- C4F10....0.0001 mBar
- SF6........0.003 mBar
- NO2.......0.0001 mBar
Total: ~317.2 mBar.
(There is a LOT of guessing in the above.)
At this stage things are looking fairly bright. Plants can start spreading naturally to large areas of the planet so the O2 level will likely start rising more quickly. There is enough O2 for microscopic 'animals' and we are getting close to where crawling insects can live (except of course that the high CO2 level would smother them). The ozone will act as a cold trap preserving the H2O on the planet. The planet is wet enough that the super fine dust (fines) will start cementing together into less dangerous dust. (The down side of this is that the snow will stay white longer which will cool the planet.) The air will have enough O2 in it that simple low tech compressors will allow people to chemically separate enough O2 to live which will lower the cost of life support significantly.
Gradually, CO2 will be drawn down and buried. (Peat moss anyone?) but to get a breathable atmosphere from this point, naturally, will take an estimated 100,000 years. However, humans can deliberately bury carbon greatly speeding up the formation of a breathable mix of gases.
Anyway, these essays show my best guess on the minimum effort and duration to get us to a 'stage 3' atmosphere. I see this taking an intensive 200 year effort at a start and another intensive effort around the 200 year mark to raise the temperature another 20 to 30 C once we have a reasonable amount of N2. Thruout this period, people will have to keep adding super green house gases to maintain the warmth. (That is why I like adding a lot of CF4 to the air. It lasts so long that people might have time to recover from a period of relatively low tech with out the planet freezing on them.)
Note that this terraforming story does not require any scientific breakthrus and only some modest technological ones (to build the large space mirrors). With scientific breakthrus, (e.g. UV resistant plants), it would only speed up the process. Larger engineering efforts (e.g. many fusion bombs to melt water and free N2 and CO2 from the ground.) would also speed up this time line.
Warm regards, Rick.
Hi Karov, everyone.
I am wondering if we should have a multiplying of new thread or if replies to existing threads are better within them?
Warm regards, Rick.
Hi mjsimon.
Welcome to the forum! I had a bit of difficulty following your post. Is Hb a standard abbreviation in biology? Do we have any experience with successfully modifying hemoglobin or was this just theoretical?
Your final point about small spheres that act as a CO2 trap if things get dangerous. How would they discharge the CO2? One way is that after they are filled, their surface changes somehow so that they will be simply flushed from the body.
Thanks for the interesting post!
Warm regards, Rick.
Yes, this is exciting. Of course, it still is not great odds. ... Perhaps when we find out more info on the track and mass and classification of the object it might be a candidate for a not so gentle nudge towards our neighbor planet. The delta v needed will probably turn out to be ridiculous though, right?
Hi MarsRefresh, everyone.
Actually it is coming so close I expect that a fairly modest delta vee (done fairly early) would be enough. I'm curious, let's play with some numbers.
They say that it is 160 foot wide. Most asteriods that size are not round but potato shaped. Let us say that it has the same volume as a 50 meter sphere. (Likely a bit of an over-estimate of its size.)
V = 4/3 PI r^3 = 3/4 PI ( 25 m )^3 = 65,449 cubic meters
Assuming that it has a density of 5.0 tonnes/m^3 (fairly dense rock) we get: ~327,250 tonnes = 327,250,000 kg.
Now the Saturn V rocket has a thrust of:
1st Stage: 34.02 MN (Mega Newton) -- Burns for 150 seconds
2nd Stage: 5 MN -- Burns for 360 seconds
3rd Stage: 1 MN -- Burns for 500 seconds
// From: http://wapedia.mobi/en/Saturn_V
This gives a total thrust of 40.02 MN. The approximate burn time for the whole stack (taking into account the decreasing thrust of the upper stages) is about 215 seconds. I'll conservatively call it 200 seconds.
Force = ma --> F/m = a
40,000,000 N / 327,250,000 kg = a = 0.122 m/s^2
v = a t
v = 0.122 m/s^2 * 200 seconds = 24.4 m/s
Now the report says that the asteroid will likely miss by 22,000 miles ~ 35,000,000 meters.
d = v t --> d/v = t
35,000,000 m / (24.4 m/s) = 1,434,426 seconds ~ 16.6 days.
So if we give it a delta vee of 24.4 m/s we would have to have started the course change about 17 days before it hits Mars.
Now of course, getting a Saturn V docked with the rock is not a trivial job. And we wouldn't use a Saturn V, we would likely use some sort of NERVA rocket. But I think that a fairly modest effort would allow us to crash it. If we could get to it 6 months earlier we would need a lot less effort. (e.g a magnetic sail with a few dozens of Newtons of thrust for 6 months may be enough.)
So the lesson is that a close pass is almost as good as a hit to a terraformer that has space flight.
Warm regards, Rick.
I have often thought about the idea of governments constructing large scale mountain building programs in areas which have low rainfall or in areas which can tweak the climate to produce a cooler more favorable climate...
Martin
Hi Martin, everyone.
I agree with you totally on this subject. Oz would be a much more productive land if it had a few mountain ranges to cause rainfall. Out of curiosity, I looked up the cost for cheap land fill. Gravel costs range from $10.00 to $16.00 to $23.50 per tonne currently at a couple of web sites (Jan 2008). (Much of this variation is how far the material is expected to be shipped. I'll use the higher price below.)
If we assume that the mountain range is 2000 meters high, 100 km long and has a base of 5000 meters (with a triangular cross section) this is:
volume = 0.5 ( 5,000m * 2,000m ) * 100,000m = 5E8 cubic meters.
Multiplying this by $23.50 gives us a very rough cost of: ~$1.2 E 10 or $12,000,000,000. However, the cost is likely going to be at least 10 times that since we will want stronger materials than gravel, it will have to be dug up from somewhere and shipped to the correct location up hill.
Call it about half a trillion dollars if you include landscaping and some cement to hold it all together. This does not include the price to buy all that land in the first place.
It would be nice if we had some way to get volcanoes to erupt where we want them. Oz has quite poor soil, volcanic rock would bring up more Potassium, Phosphorus and other useful soil components.
I don't see this happening now but with fusion or fission there might be enough wealth to consider it.
Warm regards, Rick.
"New Earths: Restructuring Earth and Other Planets" by James Edward Oberg, Published by Stackpole Books, (c) 1981, ISBN O-8117-1007-6, 283 pages, cost was ~$6.00 on Albris.
I was not expecting too much from a book written in 1981. It was better than I expected but, unsurprisingly, there are better books out there. Most chapters start with a fictional scene of about a page and a half in length that shows some element of terraforming.
As a primer to terraforming this book is not bad. It hits the basics at a very high level. However, there has been a lot of work in this engineering discipline since that time and many of his thoughts have gone out of date. For example, there is no discussion of adding man made greenhouse gases to Mars' atmosphere.
There are a number of facts in this book that I've not seen in other places. for example, the mass of air required to make a 1 bar atmosphere for Mercury, Luna etc. is given both as a kg mass and as a spherical iceteroid. (Mercury and Luna would take an iceteroid about 60 km across according to Oberg.)
The index is fairly basic which makes finding odd facts harder. I may have to read thru the book again and make my own index to values I want to find later.
Overall, the book is good but dated. If you are looking for a first book on Terraforming, I would suggest "The Case for Mars". However, if you are building a library of terraforming books, this one can be found used, for quite a low price.
Warm regards, Rick.
Hi folks,
The odds are now better than 1 in 33.
New report on Mars crossing asteroid.
Warm regards, Rick.
Hi qraal, everyone.
Hard science fiction is held by me to some contradictory standards. If the technology or science breakthru is important to the plot I like it to be explained some how. Background breakthrus I don't expect as much explanation. Realistically if you assume science and technology increases for another 100 years, there SHOULD be all sorts of improvements and an author can't take the time to explain them all.
Science fiction often uses Magical Nano Technology to 'explain' all sorts of tough technological breakthrus with out having to discuss them in detail. That is fine for what SF does.
But in a science forum I hold higher standards. HOW is your nano-tech mask going to lower the partial pressure of CO2? See this thread:
Problems With Magical Nano-technology
In particular, in the last post I've made (so far) in this thread I give an example of a nano-tech problem where it could work because the problems with nano-tech (which most people gloss over) are addressed.
Warm regards, Rick.
As for too much CO2 I reckon somatic cell gene tinkering will let us increase our tolerance levels on a reversible basis. And tricky nanotech masks might scrub the rest, if we have too much.
Hi qraal, everyone.
I've talked elsewhere about solving hard problems with Magical Nano Technology so I won't discuss it further here. But I think it will be very hard to genetically engineer people to accept high CO2 levels.
CO2 in the blood binds with the hemoglobin. When it reaches the lungs it has air on the other side of the membrane with effectively zero partial pressure for CO2. The gibbs free energy (a chemical measure of energy, entropy and probability) drives the CO2 across that barrier. If you increase the CO2 level in the lungs, not only does the CO2 in the blood 'want' to stay there more, but the CO2 in the air starts binding with the red blood cells.
Last, high CO2 concentrations decrease the blood PH that have a variety of bad effects.
I've enjoyed a number of your posts qraal, but I think you are underestimating the difficulty of dealing with CO2. One thing that I think would be useful is a cybernetic sense organ that tells people the CO2 level. Wire it up to the pain center and people will instantly know if their is a dangerous level of CO2 building up in their air.
Warm regards, Rick.
In "Mars: A Warmer Wetter Planet" Dr. Kargel says that at Arizona Meteor Crater there has been less than one meter of soil erosion per million years. Most of this comes from the (rare but intense) rainfalls.
Glacial erosion is very effective in eroding rock. From the same book it points out that Glaciers on Mars are eroding at 1/1000 to 1/10,000 of the Earth's rate (because of the lower gravity and the much much slower build up of ice in the glaciers).
Wind erosion is orders of magnitude slower than the erosion caused by moving water (either as a liquid or solid). So I am sure that if we get snow to fall and melt on Mars, the pace of erosion will pick up.
However, its lower gravity will always mean that erosion is slower on Earth. Water running down a 20% Martian slope will be moving 1/3 as fast and will have 1/9 the cutting power as water on a similar slope on Earth. (I am assuming it has 1/9 because the formula for kinetic energy is: KE = 1/2 m V^2. I am assuming the erosion is based on the energy in the water flow. Anyone know different?)
Anyway, the slower erosion on Mars is good as there is less volcanism to build up mountains.
Warm regards, Rick.
post script. Rob, the Arizona Meteor Crater is ~50,000 years old.
Hi Everyone,
I've been putting some work on the Mars game over the X-mas holidays. There have been a few changes.
As time has gone by, I've added a lot more industries to the game. (Most of these are the result of card play.) They usually do not place counters on the game map. This has had the unintended effect of making the map less important. (It used to be that you could fight and STEAL other player's income. Now, not so much.) The exploration deck was always too thin so I've added a few more cards that expand mines or give bonuses to them. (You dig a little bit deeper and 'WHOA!' mother load.)
However, anytime you add cards to a deck it increases the randomness so I need to playtest these new changes.
I've lowered the cost of gaining political control of regions. This is good in that it adds more competition to the game. But it has the unfortunate effect of sucking up people's money just when terraforming usually takes off. No easy solution as I WANT more competition.
Based on new studies, we need slightly more greenhouse gases to do the warming needed. (About twice as much as I was using before.) I've adjusted the table in the game and this also delays people wanting to put money into terraforming since it takes longer to get a payoff.
There are now so many things to buy that people are getting a bit lost. It is tough to decide when to invest in new forms of economic development. For example, in my last test game people could have made a lot of money by buying a "Shipping Supplies to Luna / Asteroids" title deed. People were so distracted by the other things that they are starting to miss good economic opportunities. I'm wondering if this is a good thing or not. I'm not going to worry about it for now as "games should allow people to make mistakes".
The game can be played with 2 to 5 players. I taught a new player and it took us 5 hours. However, more players take longer. I think that the rule would be something like: Time to Play = 4 hours + 0.5 hours / player. This is not too bad. However if it is: Time to Play = 3 hours + 1 hour / player it is not so good. I need to play a couple of 5 player games to get a better feel for how long it takes to play bigger games.
I've made a couple of shorter scenarios. In one everyone plays for 5 to 8 turns and just tries to have the highest income at the end of the game. In another you basically start half way thru the game (which ought to take 2 hours off the total time to play).
I confess I'm getting a bit burnt out on the game. It is getting harder to motivate myself to sit down and test it. (Actually I was planning to do some work on it today but I'm finding it easier to write this post.) :-)
Warm regards, Rick.
Bullet sizes should be one that converts the most water to c02 for its size.
The gases each size creates will depend on the carbon reactivity, velocity and local heat of that impact.At 100+ mb of c02 do we even get water frosts in winter, maybe just on the poles? Pretty sure with those numbers c02 stays in gas format all year.
Hi nickname,
I think that you are totally off on your hope that with 100+ mBars of CO2 that there won't be frosts or ices on the Martian poles. Consider, speaking in rough numbers Earth gets 1300 W/m^3 in orbit and Mars gets 500 W/m^3. After getting thru our atmosphere, it is closer to 650 W/m^3 so Mars gets a base of 3/4 the heat and light that the Earth does. (The black body temperatures for Earth : Mars are, -23C : -67C.)
Now Earth has water vapor which is far and away the biggest greenhouse gas component in our air. Mars has none. Also the Martian winters are about twice as long as the winter in Antarctica. So you get months more of no direct heating at a time. Lastly a huge amount of heat is transfered polewards by ocean currents and by our thick atmosphere.
So there is no way you won't have water ice forming at the Martian poles.
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As for the idea of dropping pellets on the Martian poles to break the ice into a plasma, having some of it combine with the carbon (to create more CO2) and letting the hydrogen take care of itself I find it doubtful but have not thought of any really elegant way to calculate all this. Let's take things step by step and see what we come up with.
Taking carbon dust from Phobos and shooting it at Mars.
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OK, Phobos is pretty much exactly over the Martian equator. Shooting the dust that far south will mean killing the orbital velocity to the east or 2.14 km/s and giving it a new, suborbital velocity which will take it 3377 km south (Martian polar radius) in the time it takes to fall 9377 km.
Well if we were at Phobos' orbital height and put it into a polar orbit it would take another 2.14 km/s boost. But then it would be 9377 km higher than the south pole. Since it does not have to travel that far in reality (perhaps 1/3 that distance being very conservative) at a quick guess it would be around a boost of 0.71 km/s southward boost.
So (speaking in rough terms) we are looking at a delta vee of around 2.85 km/s (firing roughly west-west-south) to put a pellet on the south cap. This treats the two components of the motion as vectors, but given that we are in space and firing them, cannon like, with a near instantaneous velocity I think this is a reasonable approximation.
In the Thor weapon system the crowbars are de-orbited and dropped vertically thru the atmosphere to maximize their accuracy. Given that the ice cap is a big target, I doubt people will mind that these artificial meteors are angling in from the south.
(By the way, for these calculations I'm not trying to be super accurate. I am doing some quick 'napkin' type estimates to roughly give the feel of what numbers we are talking about.)
Now 2850 m/s is not impossible by any means. Rifles fire bullets in the range of 800 to 1000 m/s easily. So I can see no problem with a mass driver reaching those figures. You would want a fission power plant, at least, to run this.
If carbon did smash into the ice how much would turn to CO2?
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Let us say that we did drop pure carbon onto the water ice poles. How much would turn into CO2?
This is a really hard question. First, would all the carbon vaporize? From my readings of Thor, I believe the answer would be yes. One suggested use would be to use a metal crowbar (say tungsten or depleted uranium) to hit a missile silo. The metal bar punches thru, turns to plasma, and then burns in the oxygen atmosphere of inside the missile silo adding the energy of the burning metal to the energy of the kinetic kill. That ICBM is toast.
So let us assume that all of the carbon vaporizes into white hot plasma. Plenty of ice will be shattered and thrown away, but I see no reason why an equal or greater quantity of ice would not also turn to plasma. (More than equal as carbon has a far, far higher heat of vaporization than ice (carbon's temperature of liquidification is 4827°C which is VERY high.)
So we will get a wild fireball of carbon, hydrogen and oxygen (plus what ever else is around) exploding outwards. As this plasma ball cools the carbon will combine with oxygen forming carbon monoxide and CO2 (fine) hydrogen to form hydrocarbons (mostly methane) and other carbon atoms (typically forming microscopic flakes of graphite and soot). (Plus other reactive things like H2C2O (ethenone).) If we drop clays and ices, we will get a bunch of more exotic species. The methane and hydrocarbons will react with O2 and O3 and turn into CO2, but any soot will stay soot.
(You could argue that the soot could react with ozone (O3) and form CO2. True. But that O2 and O3 is formed by breaking up CO2 (which is dropped as dust someplace else) so we are not getting any net gain.)
Soot forms naturally out of carbon rich plasmas, so I expect we will have losses.
Also, let us say we have a fair bit of aluminum in our impactors (see below why this might be). Aluminum oxide forms very easily. The carbon and aluminum will fight for the oxygen, and in the long run, the aluminum will win.
Would we fire pure carbon?
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Your assumption is that we would fire carbon dust but this is weak in a couple respects. First Phobos is not pure carbon. To the first approximation, it is a 'rock dust, clay minerals, salts and soot' mixture (along with some ice deeper down).
Second pure carbon (in the form of soot) or this clay like mass is not strong. The idea behind orbital kinetic weapons is that they are long and thin with a sharp point to avoid being slowed as much as possible by the air. When a dust bolt hits the atmosphere at transonic velocities it will shake, vibrate and disintegrate, gently dropping dust on the polar cap.
We could separate out the carbon and form it into diamond and drop diamond bars on the south pole. But this is impossible right now (no one is using construction diamond bars to build sky scrapers for example). See "Diamond Age" by Neil Stapleton if you are interested.
A more 'practical' way would be to make tubes out of aluminum (which can be found in clay), dust it with carbon (heat resistant) and fill the tubes with carbon dust. You could likely (at a guess) fire fence posts carrying a carbon payload. (Fencepost sized or larger so you can get a reasonable sized payload of carbon. If the aluminum melts too easy we could cover it with ceramics from the clays.)
But suddenly we are talking a major industrial effort. You need a lot of clay to make your aluminum fence posts. Aluminum does NOT come out of clay easily. You don't have highly automated scoops dumping soil on a bullet sized mass driver sled, you have to accelerate a far heavier payload which makes your mass driver far larger and more expensive. And converting that soil into tubes and pure carbon requires a lot of energy and industrial power.
This much equipment needs maintenance so you will have a large human presence. Many reactors, etc. Living in zero gee is hard on people.
I think we are out of the 'it would be simple to do...' stage and into an industry here. But that is OK, we are changing the planet.
But it occurs to me. If we are going to be doing all of these chemical reactions anyways... why not make the CO2 on Phobos? There is plenty of O2 in the rocks. Make CO2, freeze it and drop the solid CO2 onto the Martian atmosphere below the moon. Takes a lot less energy to drop something onto the equator than the poles and we get 100% of the carbon turning into CO2.
Is there enough carbon in the top 10 meters of Phobos to make a difference?
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No time. Maybe I'll chew away at this question another time and edit my answer in here later.
However, I think not because elsewhere I worked out how many 40 km ammonia rich asteroids I need to build up a reasonable amount of N2. The answer was, "way more than I hoped". Phobos has far, far less volume than something 40 km in diameter.
Conclusion:
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My take from answering the questions above is that this is very marginal. We will need a huge industrial facility on Phobos for it to have a chance of working, it feels very wasteful to me (much of the processed matter is not used, carbon does not all turn to CO2, very non-trivial to get the carbon to the poles in a nice hot impact). For a fraction of this cost we can drop a few iceteroids on Mars with the CO2, NH3, H2O, CH4 etc. already made AND these impacts will release more carbonates and nitrates from the soil.
If we need a big industrial base it will be significantly easier to put it on the planet's surface (radiation protection, ground, some air pressure, much easier life support with local materials in easy to process states, gravity, etc.) and make some greenhouse gases.
A final thought. Most estimates of Mars' carbon dioxide reserves, think that there is plenty. CO2 is absorbed in clays, in water, in ice. There may be frozen CO2 underground year round. If we can warm the poles by 5 to 15 degrees C, almost all of these reserves will become unstable and out gas the CO2 given time enough for the heat to reach them. (We are talking decades to centuries to get most of it out.)
So I don't really think that we need to spend a lot of effort trying to make more CO2.
Warm regards, Rick.
If the asteroid hits Mars we have orbiters which can detect changes in the gas content of the planet. I would be very curious to see what types of gases are released from the crater. There are likely nitrates but how much? There is likely carbonated waters but how deep?
It would be a gigantic scientific boon. Even if it just comes close it would get people thinking about Mars again.
Warm regards, Rick.
Hi everyone.
I'm reviewing two new books by Dr. Zubrin. These are not about Terraforming so I will keep them short.
"Mars on Earth: The Adventures of Space Pioneers in the High Arctic" by Robert Zubrin, Published by: Jeremy P. Tarcher / Penguin Group, (c) 2003, 252 pages.
This is a book about how the Mars Society rounded up some corporate sponsors (with an emergency donation drive from the Mars Society) and built scientific research stations in Canada and the USA. The first was in Haughton Crater on Devon Island in the high arctic. The second was in the desert northwest of Hanksville, Utah.
The more exciting story is the base built at Haughton Crater. The components of the station were to be dropped out of a US military transport. Some pieces were smashed and those hired to put the base together mutinied & walked off the job. Using volunteers, some Inuit boys and a few people hired from some 'local' towns the pieces were brought together and the base was built.
I was surprised by how much useful science was done by the Mars society by their bases. In addition, a fair amount of information was discovered on how to make a Mars program cheaper and more reliable.
I do not have exactly how much this book cost, but it was under $8.00 on Albris. Well worth the price if you are interested in Mars exploration.
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"Energy Victory" By Dr. Robert Zubrin, published by Prometheus Books, ISBN 978 - 1-59102-591-7, (c) 2007, 336 pages, $18.68 on B&N for the hardcover edition.
This book begins by documenting how the Saudi royal family have funded terrorism for decades including the Wahhabi extremist sect & the Taliban. He points out that the money (more than $2 trillion since the first OPEC oil crisis) and need for oil has paralyzed a strong US stance against the House of Saud funding terrorism.
He shows that by mandating all cars sold in the USA must be Flex Fuel Vehicles (FFV) that can burn any mixture of methanol, ethanol and gasoline, the USA could achieve energy independence, plug a $200 B a year hole in the economy and really fight terrorists. This would add about $100 to the cost of a new vehicle (mainly because of better quality materials in the fuel line).
Other parts of the book discuss the hydrogen economy fraud, false studies (that are widely quoted) saying that ethanol is more expensive than gasoline, how we can really help the third world nations develop in a humane way, how an alcohol economy will help global warming, and gives a history of WWII from the point of view of energy supplies. It also documents how Brazil went from 80% dependent on foreign energy to 0% (using FFV) in the same time that the USA has gone from 35% to 65% dependent on foreign energy.
This book offends just about every power group in Washington and I expect it to be first ignored then viciously attacked. It criticizes every administration since the formation of OPEC for failing to develop an energy policy. It points out how many of the major lobbying and legal firms for both the Democrats and the Republicans are well funded by House of Saud. It will anger the farm lobby because he suggests reducing tariffs on foreign alcohol. It shows Bush's "Hydrogen Economy" is a fraud & a lie. And it makes a very personal attack on Al Gore. (Zubrin agrees that global warming is a problem. He just thinks that it is something that can be dealt with after we stop the more immediate problem of bankrupting ourselves by giving trillions of dollars to people who want to kill us.)
This book is like Case for Mars in that it is dense with facts and highly readable. I expect that it will define the energy debate for years to come.
As you can probably tell, I am a fan of this book. Ask your local libraries to get this book and pick up a copies for yourselves and any influential people you know. With any luck, people will be so enthused by Zubrin's writing that they will pick up "Case for Mars". And hopefully, in a couple years, the west can try to think what to do with $350+ billion per year we are saving and look up to a new world.
Warm regards, Rick.
Read my posts a little more carefully. What I am basically saying is that I don't like hasty approaches, ...
Mr Kalbfus,
I have read your posts, and you said:
... I just think we shouldn't kill ourselves trying to rescue the Earth from global warming, ...
A number of other times you have made blanket statements that trying to slow carbon dioxide build up / slow global warming would require excessive efforts and may well fail anyway.
I am asking you a specific question. (For perhaps the fifth time.) Would implementing the flex fuels plan that Robert Zubrin suggests, kill the USA economy? If you can't answer this question, please don't bother to answer at all as I won't bother to reply to your posts again.
Rick
[
It comes in degrees, each increase in taxes slows the economy a bit but doesn't necessarily kill the economy, ...
Mr Kalbfus.
You can't have it both ways. Either, the costs of reducing carbon emissions are sufficiently minor that Europe can do so with out 'killing' their economy or they are not. You have said in a blanket statement that doing anything about reducing CO2 emission would 'kill' the economy. I have zoned in on this and challenged you. You have replied that Europe's economy is in rough shape.
Now above you are talking about 'degrees'. Is that a reversal of your blanket statement that any CO2 reduction would 'kill' the economy? If so, please be honest enough to admit it and stop wasting our time. If not, I'll continue with my argument.
As for your argument, let us say that you're right. Just for argument's sake we will assume that Europe's economy is REALLY (as you assure us) in terrible shape. The US currency is REALLY not dropping like a stone against the Euro. OK, let us accept that.
Now that we are on the same side here, as far as Europe goes, let us look at the main point that you seem to have missed.
Please read the following:
Roberta Nichols & Flex Fuel Vehicles
Would implementing this policy (which would significantly reduce green house emissions in the USA) 'kill' the USA economy?
If you feel the answer is 'yes' then why not support your argument with a few facts and explain HOW this policy would 'kill' the USA economy.
If your answer is 'no', then perhaps you will refrain in the future against making blanket attacks on those trying to reduce carbon emissions with statements which are obviously and demonstratively untrue.
Rick
There is one in Saudi Arabia, they grow wheat there, all with desalinated water, they use a process called vacuum evaporation and condensation I believe.
Does this single plant water an area the size of the American Bread Basket? I would assume not. Exactly how big is this farm that they water with this one plant?
Hi Everyone,
My gut feeling is that no one will try to terraform a planet until there are people there that want it to be terraformed. It is just too expensive. I also think that one or a few asteroids won't be enough to significantly change things.
Warm regards, Rick.
Do you really believe that some fine warm day in Antartica all the ice sheets are going to go "sloop" right into the ocean crating a huge tidal wave that inundates the world? ...
I don't think slowly rising ocean levels will have the same effect as a hurricane or a tidal wave. ...
Mr Kalbfus,
Straw man argument here. You were the one saying how great it would be for refugees to go to Antarctica. I think that if you look at ALL my posts in this thread and on the Global Warming thread, you will see me say that I think that _part_ (not all) of Greenland will lose its ice cap in the next 100 years. I have explicitly said on more than one occasion that the Antarctic ice cap is showing no signs of melting any time soon.
Anyway, you have been talking a lot about rising water levels in this thread, not I. I am concerned with more dangerous problems. Big hint. In a rational argument you are supposed to address points I actually make.
... Environmentalists love disaster movies don't they? In a typical disaster movie, ... < Everything about the imaginary disaster movie with lone scientists and democrat conspiring excised. >
.........right.
Now, what exactly does this story about your imaginary movie contribute? Besides allowing you to avoid having to deal with anything real, I mean. Are you suggesting that I base my concerns on your imaginary movie? Do you want me to invent my own imaginary movies? If you want me to ignore you as not worthy of my time because of moronic straw man arguments, then you are well on your way here.
The question I have about this scenario is how do we know which lone scientist to listen to? How do we know which one is right?
Ah. The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) has 3800 scientists who have contributed or reviewed the science in this report.
Incidentally, a number of scientists are very unhappy with this consensus paper because in order to get unanimity they had to water down the language to satisfy the Saudi Arabian scientists (also China & Russia).
Saudi & Chinese Water Down Global Warming
A quote from this report:
As UK columnist George Monbiot writes in his column today : "Global warming scientists are under intense pressure to water down findings' and are then accused of silencing their critics."
There were a number of reports about this but I picked this one because at the bottom of it, you can compare side by side the original draft and the censored draft that had been watered down to minimize the impact of the report.
For example:
The scientists wrote: "likely to be at high risk of irreversible extinction,"
was rewritten as: "there are projected to be major changes in ecosystem structure and species' ecological reactions."
So if you find the IPCC consensus report frightening, be assured, the document is UNDER-STATING the problem.
I did not mean that term [killing people] literally and you know that perfectly well.
Yes I do. However, you freely use hyperbole. Do you object when I do so as well to emphasize your tactics?
.... The only reason Europe is growing faster right now is because of the higher unemployment rate its starting from, but its natural rate of unemployment is higher than our because of their high taxes and regulation.
Ah, so we have agreement. Europe's economy is growing faster than the USA's. You did not mention this but can we also agree that their currency is doing better than the USA's?
You feel that these facts are unimportant because the two situations are not identical. (Ideally to make this a scientific experiment we would like Europe and the USA to be identical EXCEPT for their environmental policies.)
Europe is handicapped by high taxes, high unemployment, strong regulations AND strong environmental policies. The USA has none of these disadvantages.
However it could be hoped, that with all the advantages the USA enjoys, they would be able to moderate their output of green house gases and not have their economy 'killed'. Apparently Europe, with all the disadvantages that you have enumerated, can have have strong environmental regulations and their economy has not been 'killed'.
... did you look at Zubrin's Energy Plan?
Yes, that is why I brought it up. My question was, would implementing his plan (which I think is far more practical than your electric highway plan) 'kill' the USA economy?
< electric highways elided >
... Coal electric plants are more efficient than individual internal combustion engines powering vehicles though, you could have carbon sequestration and so forth.
Carbon sequestration is nonsense. We burn coal to get lots of energy. Using up vast amounts of that energy to remove the CO2 defeats the whole purpose of the power plant in the first place. One study looked at this, and concluded the best way to sequestrate the CO2 was to liquefy it and pump it to the ocean floor. What a disaster.
My main concern ... I worry about terrorism and the economic effects of our oil dependency. ...
You and I are in complete agreement here.
(Discussion of when fusion will arrive & other things elided. )
... but the assumption you make is one of non-technological progress, and the other assuption you make is that everything depends on the decisions f one President of one country. If you are as you say of British Columbia, why don't you look to your own prime minister to fund these fusion programs instead of to the president of a neighboring country?
You have completely missed my point. If your argument is that technology will save us, I was saying I would feel happier if technology was being aggressively funded. But Bush has implemented an energy policy that seems to have been written by the House Saud and cut fusion funding to the bone. Since the USA is the largest polluter of CO2 discussing USA policies is germane.
As for the private funding to produce fusion argument...
Fusion would be a gigantic economic boon. Every time historically that cheaper power arrived, human freedoms and wealth increased. And we are very close. As I discussed above, the Lawson parameter has been increased 10,000 fold in the last 1/2 century. If we can increase it just 3 more times we will have ignition and fusion power. However, as we have reached the edge of success, funding has been cut to the point that the plant that will prove it can't be built. It is an outrage. If you think we should do nothing until industry funds it, then that is just 5 more or 15 more years of waste and CO2 being pumped into my air.
... in 60 years we could have solar power satellites beaming down microwaves to power the desalinization and electrolysis plants, cars can drive through the desert burning hydrogen ...
Solar Power Satillites are an economic impossibility. See "Entering Space" By Robert Zubrin for why.
Hydrogen powered cars are impossible because of:
- the energy cost to create the hydrogen,
- the difficulty of getting it to the gas stations,
- the dangerousness of putting it in vehicles that crash,
- the dangerousness of H2 vehicles in parking garages,
- the cost of the fuel cell engines that burn it,
- the catalyst poisoning that destroys the fuel cells that use it,
- the cost of the platinum fuel cells if mass produced will soar.
See "Energy Victory" by Robert Zubrin for more reasons why the "hydrogen economy" is impossible.
Your point on Greece not having a rich government is true. But if sub Saharan Africa is so rich, why have they not reversed the growth of the Sahara?
... and one of the things that makes me take this global warming thing
less seriously is this constant obsession the proponets have for blaming
everything on George W. Bush, ...
I call them as I see them.
The current USA fusion budget is ~250 million. Who do I blame if not him and his government.
His government has stonewalled every effort to slow oil consumption.
His government sued California which introduced a law to stop pollution that was causing hundreds of deaths and thousands of asthma attacks every year. Do you not think that it is strange that protecting the auto corporations "right to choose what to sell" had a higher priority than the health of the USA citizens that his government is supposed to protect?
... Why do they think putting more of their hard earned money in the hands of the government is going to solve global warming? ...
As I said, it would be easy for you to create straw man arguments that fixing global warming would cost bla bla trillions. The exact shape of your argument is "global warming would cause gigantic growth of the government".
I challenged you to answer the question: if we implement Robert Zubrin's plan in "Energy Victory" would this 'kill' the USA economy? So, will implementing this policy cause gigantic growth of the USA government?
Rather than creating imaginary movies to shore up your arguments, and rattle on at great length about your unproven assumption that doing ANYTHING at all would result in giant growth of government, you could try answering my question.
...How much do you know about the year 1000 by the way, are their any particular leaders back then that we can blame our current problems on?
I don't think so.
Yet ANOTHER straw man argument. First, leaders 1000 years ago could not kill off entire ecosystems and change the Earth's atmosphere. Second, the whole, "George Bush won't look so bad when he is 1000 years away", argument is totally beside the point.
This is the point.
Biggest Extinction Since Dinos.
National Geographic - The Sixth Extinction
Mr Kalbfus,
Very soon, I won't bother replying to your threads. This is NOT because I think you are correct. It is because it is obvious to me and everyone that you are wasting our time. I suggest that if you want to be taken seriously, you learn to answer the points actually argued.
Rick
Some things Terraformer says does appear a bit nutty. I just assume he's joking, ...
Mr Kalbfus,
I agree with you. I think he is trying to make a joke out of this debate. I saw a 'report' on YouTube where this comedian figured that having to wear a sweater in winter was terrible, so she got a big pile of spray cans (filled with PFC's or something) and sprayed them all into the air. This was to encourage global warming.
If something is a big joke, people are less likely to take it seriously. It makes sense, no.
However, I am worried about what is happening to my ecosystem, what is happening - and what may happen - to my civilization. So, I must confess, that I don't find such jokes very funny. I do expect that propagandists and oil company apologists to keep up the yuck, yucks, however.
Rick
Rick, a debate has two sides to it. ... I prefer to have faith in human progress rather than be a pesimist and assume we'll go technologically nowhere in the next 60 years.
Hello Mr Kalbfus,
If you really meant no insult by the chicken little comparison and you are serious about your suggestions and not just bringing them up to trivialize the problems, then you have my attention.
The drying up of the aquifier, could be solved by a desalinization plant, ...
...deserts changing into grasslands...
I think you would need many desalinization plants. But let's say that taking sea water, boiling it, condensing the fresh water, pumping the fresh water up hill to the American bread basket and then moving it to individual fields takes only 10,000 times more energy than pumping water out of the aquifer. This will make the American wheat cost more, wouldn't it? If the agro-businesses can't be run for a profit they would shut down, wouldn't they? With no irrigation, and the water table dozens of meters deeper than it historically was, this area would revert to a desert, wouldn't it?
So whether it takes one desalinization plant or 100,000, I don't think this problem will be solved at the last minute. I think that when that underground lake is gone then so will the American Bread Basket.
Furthermore, how much oil and gas will be burnt to boil and move all that water? If we were making a giant push to fusion I would be less worried about the future, but look at what the Bush administration has done to fusion funding. Look at what it did to the Electric Car! Look what happened to the Magnetoplasmadynamic power plants and fission power plants. I see no indication that we are going to dump oil any time soon.
As for the deserts, it is far easier to make a desert than to get rid of one. How many deserts do you know of that human beings have reclaimed (perhaps with a desalinization plant). If this map shows vast desert areas turning into grass lands, then I think it is HIGHLY optimistic.
Greece was turned into a desert by over exploitation of its ecosystem. (It used to be rich forest.) The Greek government has tried for decades to reforest these lands but the soil is gone (erosion), the land is hot (which reduces local precipitation) and the country is poor (in part because it is a desert). You might spend some time reviewing how easy Greece has had it, trying to improve its ecology. And it has a desert with a fair bit of rain fall.
...and did you take a look at that "Dubya" map, it shows that much of the regions where drought would occur would actually be flooded by the rising ocean, and all the evaporation from the encroaching ocean would create a wetter climate for the surrounding area, ....
Actually I didn't look at it. I think that the we will have huge problems long, LONG before the antarctic ice sheet melts. But even assuming Antarctica was ice free what does that get us? We make some reservations and dump refugees on a continent with no soil and something like 3 months of no sun. Well, I guess that that solves the main problem of which countries are going to adopt all those refugees. By the way, how many countries in the world welcomed large numbers of boat people? How many countries took thousands of poor people from the Sudan famine? These are microscopic refugee problems compared to the one you feel is so easily solved.
I'm not insulting anybody, I just think we shouldn't kill ourselves trying to rescue the Earth from global warming, the result doesn't look so terrible that we couldn't survive on such a changed planet, the KT extinction at the end of the Dinosaur Age looks by comparison to be much worse than what's going on now. ...
I am pretty sure that I have not suggested that we kill anyone. I have suggested that we work to minimize adding even more carbon to the air. But many people like to suggest that this noble goal is equivalent to:
-- Destroying the economy.
-- Living in the dark.
-- Beggaring ourselves.
-- Freezing in the Winter.
-- Killing ourselves.
-- Panicking. etc.
Wildly exaggerating the costs of conservation / converting to cleaner energy, so as to make it easier to dismiss the debate, does not endear you to me. In reply to either you or terraformer, I mentioned that Europe (which has very strong green political parties and environmental regulations with teeth) has an economy and currency that are growing faster than the USA. I don't recall either of you commenting on this point.
Furthermore, US cars pollute so badly that they can no longer be sold in many parts of the world. Fuel efficient cars are very important in poorer nations where the cost of gasoline is prohibitive. This is an easy to understand example of where better conservation would help the US economy. But I don't recall you discussing this point either.
So if you are going to say, that reducing carbon emissions will "kill ourselves" I don't buy it. I am tired of these ridiculous, excessive claims of the impossibly high 'costs' coming from slowing our burning of ground carbon. When people talk about reducing carbon emissions means we will huddle in the dark, they deserved to be challenged. They should be asked to provide some shred of evidence rather than just verballing flinging impossibly high 'costs' into the mental arena. Especially when Japan and Europe are examples that ecological victories do not 'beggar' their economies and make them 'shiver in the dark'.
So perhaps you could give statistics or some evidence on how many people will have to die? Maybe a few, will be only maimed.
Now it would be easy for you to make some straw man argument where to stop all carbon emissions we would have to bla, bla, and this would cost the economy umpteen trillions of dollars per week. To make things more solid, you could talk about the costs of adopting Robert Zubrin's plan here:
The Earth is a dynamic and changing thing, it would be pure folly for us to try and hold it in stasis, ...
Wow. This is poetry worthy of some thought I think.
Now when you say the Earth is 'dynamic and changing' what do you mean? It sure sounds pretty. Dynamic is good, it is cool. We WANT things to be dynamic right? And Stasis is BAD.
You might mean that the Earth has earthquakes and volcanoes and plate tectonics. But we are not trying to stop that. We can't.
You might mean the circulation of the North Atlantic conveyor belt. We are doing our best to stop that all right.
You might mean the life forms and species, the whole ecosystems that make up the Earth and support us economically and biologically. We are stopping those by habitat destruction and creating agricultural mono-cultures. We are also stopping that by desertification. You are right, we don't want to stop (or hurt) the Earth's ecosystems. But we are.
So after thinking about your comment above, you are right. I don't want to stop the dynamic Earth. But I do want to stop (or at least slow) the unnatural build up of CO2 in our atmosphere.
...and we ourselves are a product of Earth and an agent of climate change.
Is this trying to say that since we are a natural product of Earth, that climate change is good??? There are many societies that have gone beyond their ecological carrying capacity. They were natural products of Earth. That did not make them happy with their folly. Have you read "Collapse" by Jered Diamond?
I think we ought to hold a balanced perspective on what global climate change would mean rather than dwelling only on the negative ...
Hmmm.... You are right. Here in B.C. I am looking at the billions of dollars damage being done to our forests by the Pine Bore beetle. But I am not looking at the positive ways that global warming has helped me. (Actually, I can honestly not think of any right now but there may be some.)
However, there seems to be 10 or 50 or 1000 bad things that are associated with global warming for every good thing. Why is this? Perhaps it is because ecologies and societies have adjusted and evolved for current conditions. The evils we know, so to speak. If those conditions change (especially if they change quickly), there will be upheaval and death.
...rather than dwelling only on the negative and trying to panic the populace into drastic action which may not do any good.
But I think that this is a BS argument in a lot of ways.
First, we are getting reports of tropical parasites being seen in the southern USA and Europe where they have not been possible before. We had a heat wave in Europe a couple summers ago that killed tens of thousands of people. We are seeing birds that are having trouble feeding their young because the bugs they usually eat are out of sync with the birds migration patterns because spring is coming 3.5 weeks earlier than normal. We are seeing fish stocks dying and being taken over with jelly fish and toxic algae. Coral reefs are dying because the water is too warm.
We are seeing bad things happening now. We see the possibility of truly terrible things. Massive greenhouse temperatures by degassing oceans. Hydrogen sulfide eruptions that will wipe out entire marine ecosystems. (If the oceans die, we die.) Vast droughts as mountain glaciers vanish. Deserts spreading because a few degrees of temperature increase cause greatly increased drying of the soil and contributes to soil erosion. Acid rain killing forests, lakes and leaching heavy metals into the water supply.
I think it is pretty ingenuous for you to say, "oh, people are not looking at the bright side". Give me a break.
Another thing, I am not trying to panic anyone. (Panic must be a favorite word with you guys.) I have seen someone who was panicked and I sincerely doubt that I could do that via remote control using only words and the internet.
You could say that I am trying to get people worried. I am trying to get people thinking about the ecology. I am trying to get people thinking about energy policy. However, alarmists who panic people are easy to dismiss, right? I bet that you will keep throwing that word 'panic' at me and hope some of it sticks.
As for the "drastic action that may not work anyway"...
Nice rhetoric. In one phrase you again frame the argument in such a way that any change is drastic and upsetting. And you cast doubts about the ability for us to succeed. No evidence or facts, of course.
Now, it is far easier to prevent a disaster than clean up after it. On one hand you are saying it will be simple to clean up this mess. ("... with a desalinization plant...") and on the other hand any attempt to fix or even moderate the problem ahead of time is drastic and might not work. I would suggest that you can't have it both ways.
If I may be so bold, let me summarize your arguments:
-- Global warming is likely not going to be a problem.
-- Any attempt to mitigate it will be disastrously expensive.
-- We can easily & cheaply fix anything that goes wrong.
-- Victims of all this (poor people else where) can go live in Antarctica or Siberia or make themselves not poor or, ...or something.
-- Major effects (such as ecosystem collapse, H2S eruptions, desertification, vast amounts of CO2 outgassing from the oceans) won't happen, or will be easy to fix if they do happen and discussing them is panic mongering in any case.
If you don't like my summary, could you please post your own?
My summary of arguments is:
-- Humans are causing the 6th large extinction event in the Earth's history. The rates of extinctions are accelerating.
-- Human caused global warming is real and is causing problems already.
-- Global warming will cause this extinction event to get worse.
-- These disruptions will cause famine, plague war and death on a planet with a whole lot of guns.
-- Modest changes would be a significant help in slowing or moderating the above.
We could compare summaries, decide what we agree on or disagree on. And then argue those points of disagreement with out ENDLESSLY repeating our arguments to the boredom of anyone reading these posts.
Repeating an argument endlessly is propaganda. It's mental spam. It just causes boredom. And if people are bored with a subject then they will watch reruns of "Sex in the City" rather than thinking, right?
I have contempt for propagandists. If you claim that your position is so strong, then from this post on, why not back it up? I am more than willing to engage you in honorable combat of references and facts.
As a start, you could document how the environmental regulations are "killing" the Europeans. That would go a long way towards shoring up a very weak point in your argument, namely that any change is too expensive.
As for all the poor people, they should change their pattern of living so they are less poor. If we worry about how they are going to hew buckets of water from the local water hole 300 years from now, there is something wrong with that assuption. Instead of worrying how they'll maintian their subsistance farm, why not work on ways to make them more economically productive rather than maintain this stupid third world "hand to mouth" existance. I've heard of people getting run over by cars as they crossed the highways to get their buckets of water. Haven't they heard of plumbing! A simple concept that's been around for thousands of years, no excuse not to have plumbing.
I leave the above, for people to consider, with out further comment.
Rick
What happens when we use up all of the metals to build the boats with?
What happens when we can't build giant docks b/c we've cut down all of the forest?
What happens when we run out of fresh water and crude oil?
We can't puriify ocean water b/c that is fairly energy intensive.
Hi jumpboy11j, everyone.
I doubt we will ever run out of metals and crude oil. But as the good deposits are exploited those resources will be priced out of the range of the millions of poor people that, some have suggested, take to the seas.
However, you are bang on with your comment on fresh water out at sea. Boiling sea water to get fresh is VERY energy intensive.
The reed boats that terraformer mentioned were the totora reed boats on Lake Titicaca. A rich lake is far easier to live on than the oceans Note, that these people's homes were on land. However, the lake is so calm they could go on trips lasting several weeks.
Furthermore, the logs lashed together 'idea' was a suggested solution to massive global warming and flooding. People who study hurricanes pay careful attention to the 29.5 degree C isotherm. Areas of the ocean inside this temperature gradient have so much warm water vapor that hurricanes grow. Over water colder than that, they shrink. Currently the 29.5 C isotherms are small, roughly triangular, areas of oceans off the equator. If we warm the planet two degrees, then the 29.5 C isotherms would be huge. Hurricanes could grow stronger and stronger over vast areas, and keep growing into significantly higher latitudes. This makes the suggested, 'small boat' excuse even weaker.
When the USA abandoned its South Vietnamese allies (and cut off military supplies to that government), North Vietnam conquered that nation with an armored assault that had more tanks and vehicles than D-Day. People undesirable to the new government we sent to reeducation camps which killed an estimated 12 million 'comrade citizens'. People desperate to leave this regime took to small boats. They were the 'boat people'.
The US media ignored the story as much as it could. They had no desire to show what a horrible mess the USA had created, when it abandoned those who trusted them.
If terraformer was serious about his suggestion, he could do some research and show just how well the thousands of boat people fared.
However, I would be very surprised if he ever does this. Research would require effort. His 'suggestion' is not a serious attempt to find a solution to the problems posited. It was (I think) made to trivialize the subject and insult the people contributing to this thread.
Criticizing terraformer's ideas feels a little bit like shooting fish in a barrel but a comment he made suggested to me another way to get to Mars. All the USA has to do is raise the minimum wage to $1 billion per hour. Then everyone in the country will have enough money to finance a Mars mission. We could have 100,000 Mars programs!
I'm afraid I'm not setting much of an example on the ignore them and maybe they will go away strategy.
Warm regards, Rick.
Hi Rick,
A short greenhouse c02 supplement guide.
http://www.gov.mb.ca/agriculture/crops/ … 01s02.html
Hi Nickname, everyone.
The link above is to a Canadian government study that talks about increasing productivity by adding CO2. The relevant portions I've copied below:
How Does C02 affect Plant Growth?
The ambient level of C02 in the atmosphere is 340 PPM. At 100 PPM of C02 the rate of photosynthesis would be stopped completely. At 150 PPM the plants begin to respire, and photosynthesis is stopped. At this low level the plant will no longer be able to obtain C02 from the atmosphere and photosynthesis is restricted. The plant will eventually use all of the C02 present, photosynthesis will stop and the plant will die.
The rate of photosynthesis at 350 PPM will be consistent with growing conditions outside of a controlled environment, given that ambient levels of C02 in the atmosphere are 340 PPM.
With no other limiting factors such as heat, light and nutrients the plants will photosynthesize at a rate consistent with ambient conditions (i.e. outside of the greenhouse). There may be a slight increase in photosynthetic efficiency due to the higher than ambient C02 level, however this increase will probably be insignificant. The level of 1000 PPM C02 is very close to the optimum level of C02 required, given no other limiting factor, 1200 PPM, to allow a plant to photosynthesis at the maximum rate.
At this level most plants will respond favorably by increasing photosynthesis, however this is dependent on all the other limiting factors being optimum for the plant. Therefore at 1000 PPM the photosynthetic rate should be almost at maximum for most plants. However unlikely, at 10,000 PPM of C02 the photosynthetic rate in the plants will be very low due to the closing of the plant stomata and the exclusion of air into the leaf interior.
This level of C02 is sufficient to cause toxic effect on the plants and cause damage and eventually death of the plant. Also at this level of C02 it would be very hazardous to workers in the greenhouse, as they too would experience C02 poisoning. The photosynthetic rate would likely be zero at 10,000 PPM of C02 for the above stated reasons.
This study is not talking about if they are using C3 or C4 plants. (Likely C3 as I expect that most C4 plants are not usually found in greenhouses.) But the effect that they refer to is the closing of the plant's stomata. So cyanobacteria would not be affected by this. I am also not convinced that 'primitive' plants such as Bryophites or mosses will be affected. (In fact I have evidence that they would not be.)
(I will round up references and edit them into this post later.)
Anyway, many thanks Nickname. This is the first I've heard that some plants have a maximum CO2 level.
Warm regards, Rick.
Hi Rick,
I think the toughest of all the plants can only withstand about 6% co2 content then it becomes a toxic substance. ...
Cyanobacteria is not as effected with c02 in the water, and water won't be a great co2 holder, so short waits to start it growing.
Even though water will repel c02 semi well, ...
Hi nickname,
This is not at all my understanding. People grow plants in high concentration CO2 greenhouses. Above a certain point, plants don't grow any faster with more CO2, but I've not seen anything that says it becomes toxic to them (providing they have a high enough partial pressure of O2).
CO2 is absorbed well in sea water. I've seen estimates that say that 50 times the CO2 is in the Oceans compared to the atmosphere. (That is why some people are so worried about the warming ocean waters.)
Anyway, could you give the reference where it shows that CO2 is toxic to plants at high concentrations?
Warm regards, Rick.