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#276 Re: Human missions » After Mars - And why we should go indirect. » 2004-05-15 13:48:42

GCNR, you make some valid points and please don't take offence when I disagree with you, but I think you and many others here are underestimating technological growth. Most of the concerns about the successfulness of a martian colony are grounded in technology of today.

Put another way, does it seem reasonable that colonists are going to spend most of their time watching their gardens grow or factories work? No, they will not. Of coarse a biologist will have to moniter the garden and a constructioner will have to do some manual labor.

With a decent digging machine and nuclear powered kiln colonists can make sizeable underground habitats in no time. The most difficult part is going to be creating an airtight door from indigenous materials. And one door could be sent.

I fail to see why a decent colony cannot be started with a dozen people (two manned missions of six). Their primary job will be the creation of an underground habitat and growing food. Hardware they need can be sent much cheaper than any manned mission would cost and software uploads are basically free. Their primary mission would be to provide enough shelter, air and food for themselves and one other. Now you have acceptable living conditions for a dozen more people.

Think of the ISS. How many countries are now participating in this project now that they see it being built? Once NASA, ESA or RSA builds the initial base others will gladly chip in 5 billion to be represented on Mars.

And idiom I also disagree with you. What Mars offers now that won't be offered in 50-100 years is a challenge. Today it is a challenge, in the future it will not be. Unfortunately, the best reason to send people to Mars isn't a reason countries want to hear. That reason is independance. A colony established now has a chance of being independant of Earth. Independance means a whole new way of thinking. A new voice, if you will, to add to the collective group-mind we call humanity.

If we wait too long to go to Mars, then we will simply be taking Earth with us. We will be taking all the negative attributes that come with a society with too much time on it's hands: racism, greed and apathy.

#277 Re: Human missions » After Mars - And why we should go indirect. » 2004-05-15 07:28:26

It is a common misconception that the Earth will be doing everything as far as exploration goes. The main reason to go to "Mars now now now" is that our future martians will be much better suited to explore and settle the solar system than we are.

A colony on the Moon will not be able to devote resources to exploration anytime soon. The larger a Moon colony gets, the more resources it is going to need. If we place a colony on the Moon now, it is likely that they will be out of native water in one hundred years, assuming of coarse that it has any. The Moon will always be under the control of its sponcering countries because of its dependance and close proximity.

Mars on the other hand, offers so much more. Mars is the only place in the solar system that can provide a real home for humanity. A mission to Mars will be nothing like Apollo. The Moon is dead. Everywhere you go it looks pretty much the same, this is not true for Mars. I know that if we go to Mars we won't stop going, because the public won't allow it.

Apollo died because let's face, the Moon sucks. It is an oversized asteroid with the same benefits and more drawbacks. Also, people were under the impression that we could and would go back any time we wanted, so let's deal with Vietnam first.

Mars, being further away, is protected from that kind of chop-logic. We will have to support our people there, it won't be a choice for Congress to make. A colony on Mars will be the start of humanity becoming an interplanetary species and this is totally different than a few visits to the Moon.

Our first colony on Mars is going to have a profound psycological effect on everyone. Suddenly, anything will seem possible: Europa, Mercury, the Moon, asteroids. These are the future after Mars.

AntiCarrot, you ask what's next after Mars? Everything. The technology we develop for Mars is going to open up the entire solar system to us. Should KBO's become homes to humanity, the stars are even within our grasp, or at least the closest stars.

#278 Re: Human missions » New Bush Plan Set To Coincide With June Speech - Link included....talk amongst yourselves » 2004-05-15 06:49:59

I dont see why we dont just build a really big railgun up the side of one of the Rockie Mountains and launch rockets that way.

#280 Re: Human missions » New Bush Plan Set To Coincide With June Speech - Link included....talk amongst yourselves » 2004-05-14 07:34:49

The offical height that SpaceShipOne reached in its thrid test flight was 212,000 feet! That's about 2/3 of what is required to win the X-prize.

I really think they are going to pull it off guys.....amazing.

#281 Re: Human missions » New Bush Plan Set To Coincide With June Speech - Link included....talk amongst yourselves » 2004-05-13 19:34:25

Thanks for the links Bill. I'm a little disturbed, truth be told. Not only are we incapable (some would say unwilling) of launching manned missions, we seem to be losing the infastructure race as well.

Is it just me or does it not seem that Russia is the darling of spaceflight now? I'm sure it is played up over there that they must help 'poor american comrades'.

I was afraid that our fleet being grounded too long would cause the world in general to lose faith in us. Starting to wonder if NASA can pull off this major facelift if it won't be too little too late.

Like I've said, I don't care if someone beats us to Mars, as long as someone goes. But it is still more than a little depressing to see us struggling.

#282 Re: Human missions » New Bush Plan Set To Coincide With June Speech - Link included....talk amongst yourselves » 2004-05-13 11:23:37

LOL, Cobra I get asked that all the time. I don't know why they make it look like meat. I guess it has to look like something.

As a vegetarian, I can honestly say that I love the taste of meat. I love the chewy goodness and smell of meat. Quite possibly, the human brain has come to associate the taste and smell of meat with survival.

Some products have come a long way, other have not. I recently cooked up a Morningstar Griller Prime, topped with cooked onions, mushrooms and cheese, and feed it to my girlfriend. She couldn't tell it wasn't meat and didn't believe me when I told her.

Now the varieties of 'gardenburgers' are a different story. They consist of blk olives, celery, carrots, etc and most people spit them out because their brains were expecting meat and got blended vegetables.

There are many reasons for being a vegetarian. Mine is that I love animals and can't eat them when I don't have to. I eat milk and cheese, vegans do not. They are a weird bunch, don't trust them...

I mean I love animals, but Ms. Cow, I need your milk to make me cheese!!!

#283 Re: Human missions » New Bush Plan Set To Coincide With June Speech - Link included....talk amongst yourselves » 2004-05-13 11:10:35

I'd just like to add real quick, that no matter what our differences on other issues, it is good to see so many people with a passionate interest in Mars.

We may disagree on which plan is best or whose ideas are better, but we have one thing in common. That is a need to see people (black, white, red or yellow) walking on the surface of a world that has inspired so many human dreams since the dawn of time.

#284 Re: Human missions » New Bush Plan Set To Coincide With June Speech - Link included....talk amongst yourselves » 2004-05-13 10:56:24

GNCR, I hope I didn't offend you. My post was not an attack on anyone.

Perhaps I was being a tad optimistic, but considering that a colony on Mars is going to spawn new industries we can't even think of now, not to mention reinvigorating older industries, I don't think I was that far off the mark.

As I see it, Mars Direct's entire purpose is to be a temporary shelter while a permanent shetler is created. Like it or not, the first generation of Martian colonists are going to have to be vegetarian. And yes, some of us do like that 'soy-based meat substitute', I had some fake sausage and bacon this morning  tongue

Anyway you look at it, someone is eventually going to Mars. It is simply a matter of when and who. Whoever does it is going to do it cheaply because it hasn't been done before and is therefore a great financial risk. Mars Direct may not be perfect, but it can get us there without breaking the bank. Once people are there, things get a lot easier in a sense. Shipping cargo to Mars will always be cheaper than shipping people.

However, our colonists are going to have to make as much of their own goods as possible. It is likely going to take much longer to get cargo to Mars than we do rovers because of the weight difference. So anything essential will have to bear the 'Made On Mars' tag.

#285 Re: Human missions » Crossman's Plan for Mars Colonization - What have you done for Mars lately? » 2004-05-13 05:52:02

Hmmm, the average couch in America has $1.45 hidden in it. If every member of the Mars Society donated their couch money that comes to $10,150. Now say we are shooting for a 2020 launch and the Mars Society continues to grow at 1,000 peoples a year, that comes to an additional $21,750 or $31,900 total. However, incomes should increase over the next 15 years quite a bit so naturally the 'couch-savings' will increase as well. Let's assume a 5% yearly increase in the couch-savings plan over the next 15 years....wait, what if we don't use change in the next 15 years?

Come on guys, you think I'm a dreamer and you want to go to Mars on an investment plan based on 7000 Mars Society members.... ???

#286 Re: Human missions » New Bush Plan Set To Coincide With June Speech - Link included....talk amongst yourselves » 2004-05-13 05:29:40

I still don't see a good arguement against Mars Direct as a starting point for colonization.

As far as a good reason to do it in the first place....money. Clark, if you stand back and look down on a mission to Mars, I admit, it is hard to see the benefit at first, but let's look closer.

Say we use Mars Direct or a cheap Russian alternative to colonizing, we are going to spend about 15-20 billion initially. Ok, so people are there now, what now? Newpapers are going to cover the stories as they break creating a real need for a scientific minded reporter or more hours for the ones they have. Advertisers are going to spend millions maybe billions with this new subject matter both comical and serious. Colleges will see a significant raise in enrollment similar to the Apollo era, but sustained for a longer time. More educated people means higher paying jobs equals more tax revenue for the government. The aerospace industry will be challenged to provide faster, cheaper access to Mars, and by default the Moon, Europa, asteroids, etc. More money.

We aren't talking about a 'touchy-feely' need to spread our wonderful race to other worlds. What we are talking about is a new and the greatest of all industries. As I'm sure Bill White can tell you, new industry (failed or successful) means economic growth. The real gains for a Mars colonizing effort aren't going to be materials we can import, but rather a new breed of men and women. With new lifestyles comes new ways of looking at old problems.

Look at our country for instance. Today we may be decadent, fat, useless consumers, but it wasn't always so. This country was created by people longing for a better way of life. They thought it so important that tommorrow be better than yesterday that they designed our government to be both tolerant and flexible. We still benefit from those old laws, and people that they didn't see needing help (women and blacks) have recieved it. Although we may be less popular these days, countries strive to be like us. So you have our founding countries changing themselves to be more democratic.

Mars will definately be a better community than what we have now, and will likewise affect Earth for the better. It is a hostile, challenging environment that will weed out the 'undesirables' by it's very nature. Recycling and efficency will be a way of life for these people not a choice. They won't know what wasteful is for several generations. We are going to send only the smartest, bravest and maybe the wealthiest of us. This is going to be the seed for the next great political entity. Even the wealthy have a place. If some of our richest people go to Mars they are going to help make Mars a force in the 'world'. They will strive to make Mars an economic force to better pursue their desires.

England was settled by people seeking a better way of life and dominated the world for about 200 years till their colony took the spotlight (and still today they benefit). The US was settled by people seeking a better way of life, now it's our turn to start a colony and therefore the next step in humanity.

#287 Re: Human missions » New Bush Plan Set To Coincide With June Speech - Link included....talk amongst yourselves » 2004-05-12 10:14:28

Clark, I love ya I really do but you need to read 'The Case For Mars'. Mars Direct is nothing like Apollo. The Moon is severly over-rated.

Let me list the advantages of Mars over the Moon. Mars has a 24 hour day, the Moon has a two week day. Besides the obvious comfort a 24 hour day provides to the human psyche there are plants to be grow to feed people. On the Moon, plants would need to be grown underground requiring a lot of energy.

Mars has an atmosphere, the Moon does not. Atmopsheres are very useful when you save fuel decelerating by aerobraking. Atmopsheres also provide protection from micro-meteorites which will go right through a moonwalker. Mars' atmosphere will also be a great source of CO2 for plants as well as fuel to travel around the planet.

Mars has water. Ah, but the Moon does too you say? Big difference, Mars has a huge supply of ice in its caps and underground. Most of the planet has subsurface ice. The Moon only has maybe a million tons or so at the poles.

In short, Mars can support a thriving human development where the Moon can support maybe a small scientific outpost. I love the Moon and would love to see people there as well, but most of it's benefits can be reproduced on a NEO asteroid or comet. Only Mars can provide a home for millions and maybe billions of people.

#288 Re: Human missions » New Bush Plan Set To Coincide With June Speech - Link included....talk amongst yourselves » 2004-05-12 10:02:58

Whats wrong with mass-marketing? I respectfully disagree with you Bill about Jordan. Granted his hayday is passed but when he was in his prime I couldn't look around without seeing a pair of Air Jordans, a Hanes underwear or Ballpark Franks commercial, not to mention Gatorade....geez.

As far as NASCAR goes, people only know that Tony Stewart is sponcered by Home Depot or Jeff Gordan is a Pepsi man. They don't see the other 2 dozen stickers on the cars or jumpsuits, and that's my point.

Die-hards like most of us wouldn't care if the first manned ship on Mars was the ugliest shade of baby-poo green, we'd be very happy. The common person is going to see familar logos and begin to think of Mars as a rela place they can go to.

I am a firm believer that a well thought out mission to Mars could pay for itself. Don't that seem fiscally responcible to you? If it fails, the taxpayers have nothing to bitch about, pardon my language.

#289 Re: Human missions » National Space Society - Calls for settlement as the goal » 2004-05-12 09:52:19

Btw, great post Robert. It seems that Mars Directs' biggest opponents haven't read 'The Case For Mars'. I've read my copy twice, yes it's that good. big_smile

#290 Re: Human missions » National Space Society - Calls for settlement as the goal » 2004-05-12 09:41:21

"They misunderestimated me."  too, dont't feel bad.  ???

Wow, that was great stuff Ian. I've seen some of those Bushisms before, but like a fine wine they get better with age. Makes me wonder how anyone can respect that man knowing how stupid he is.

#291 Re: Human missions » New Bush Plan Set To Coincide With June Speech - Link included....talk amongst yourselves » 2004-05-12 09:18:09

Cobra is exactly right. The beauty of the 'hair-brained' Mars Direct Plan is that it does take a step-by-step approach similar to PlanBush. While we do explorational science, we are also building the beginnings of a base. Mars Direct wasn't meant to be "The Plan' to get people to Mars. It's intention is to show that we don't need a huge government effort like Bush Sr.'s to get to Mars and stay. It also shows that with a reasonable investment we can go to Mars today and not 30+ years down the road.

I would think that any reasonable person would see that PlanBush and Mars Direct go hand in hand. While NASA is testing new techniques and technology on the Moon (getting our space legs back), techniques for growing a self-sufficent colony on Mars are being tested right here on Earth.

There's no need to go to Mars and hope that our habitat is efficent enough to maintain a healthy environment long enough for our colony to grow its own food and make its own air. We will know what can and can't be done before we go. After we get a sample return we will have a very good idea what can be made from local Mars resources and what is needed to grow plants in martian dirt.

I only wish W.'s plan had gone something like this:

Wrap up modifications to the shuttles in 6 months.
Finish the ISS with the existing fleet.
Modify the existing fleet to be more efficent and use as many existing facilities possible.
Sample return missions from Mars no later than 2010.
Primary objectives for new missions to Mars to test local resource utilization.
Secondary objectives to gather climate and geological information on site.
Manned missions to Mars no later than 2020 with the directive to build up a base.

Requirements for a successful base are:

Standardizing as many mission parts as possible so that earlier rovers/landers can be salvaged for parts.

Base site should be choosen as soon as a rover can access subsurface ice/water.

Missions should be directed to within 50 miles of locating water so we learn as much as possible about the region over time that people will be living in.

Robotic missions to Mars should be selected on what I call a 'cost/bonus' plan. Meaning that the contract go to whoever can do it cheapest and recieve a bonus for longevity and versitility. For instance, a rover that can drill down about 10 feet to find ice and later use it's robotic arm(s) to clear a landing site or recognize and gather appropriate materials.

Aggressive marketing must be pursued both before and during manned missions. Our human/robotic missions should look like NASCAR cars, covered in decals. Pay-per-view should be used as often as possible. Selective rock sampling should go to the highest bidder back on Earth. The biologist we send should go where curious PAYING companies suggest.


I may have ranted about the drawbacks of capitalism awhile back, but the problem is NASA doesn't use it. Capitalism is the key to getting the public interested and staying interested in Mars.

#292 Re: Human missions » New Bush Plan Set To Coincide With June Speech - Link included....talk amongst yourselves » 2004-05-11 21:34:19

Isn't it time for capitalism 2.0? Sure capitalism was great getting us to this point, but even my rightie cousins can see problems with it, they just don't know of a better system.

I believe that there's nothing wrong with 'getting rich', hell I'm trying for that myself. However, when a company becomes so big and powerful that it can squash any upstart competition, we are left with decades old tech, in short, stagnation.

Is the solution progressive tax rates till a cap is reached? Maybe. I doubt that the wealthiest people in the world think they have enough so it's quite possible that an outside force (government) is needed to regulate wealth.

Don't think of it as punishing the rich. Rather, think of it as their civil responcibility to pay for the freedom of being wealthy and enjoying more freedom than the average person. Wealth equals greater freedoms. Shouldn't the wealthy pay for the right to be rich?

Maybe that doesn't seem fair to some, but is it more fair that someone struggling with poverty pay it? The government needs X dollars a year. That money has to come from somewhere doesn't it?

When the poor are heavily taxed it only creates more need for social programs which eat up more money thanks to pork. Taxing large buisnesses can cost people jobs, but it also drives a buisness to be more efficent or at least to drive up their price. If their product is truely useful, people will pay the higher price which is good for the economy.

Ever notice that companies that spend the most on advertising like Coke or Niki have to because their product isn't all that great? They have to sell you a celebrity or a feeling to buy their product.

Airlines regularly drop their fares to the point they are losing money when some upstart company comes along and starts stealing their buisness by offering a good deal or good service. The prices usually stay low just long enough to drive the new company out of buisness then they go back up.

This is capitalism out of control. Too often, buisnesses employ 'dirty' tactics to stay on top. So keep capitalism, but forbid the dirty tactics with legislation.

Do this and one day we will all be driving solar powered cars, flying cars, traveling to space, and many other wonderful things that we don't have now because buisness would rather maintain the status quo than be pioneering.

#294 Re: Human missions » New Bush Plan Set To Coincide With June Speech - Link included....talk amongst yourselves » 2004-05-11 10:56:10

Answer: One that would tax those contrators into extinction.

Even if 'lefties' don't support our space program and would rather spend the money on social programs here on terra firma, the evil, money obsessed defence contractors need to get the hell out of the way.

I'd rather we not see a single manned US launch for the next twenty years it may take the private sector to catch up, then spend another 30+ years circling the Earth.

Greed is good, but domination stagnates.

#295 Re: Human missions » beating a dead horse? - more russian mars stories » 2004-05-11 10:47:04

See? I told you so...

Russia is already co-operating with China and now they are going to 'join' the ESA which has already expressed its desire to work with China.

NASA needs to change its stance pronto if it doesn't want to be the black sheep of the spaceflight community.

#296 Re: Human missions » New Bush Plan Set To Coincide With June Speech - Link included....talk amongst yourselves » 2004-05-11 10:36:28

Yikes! Reagan's cold war spending was respocible for the economic upturn in the 90's? Wow, that one is way out there. I could have sworn that the upturn started when Clinton tightened our belts to pay down the deficits created by Bush Sr. and Reagan. Economists saw responcible fiscal spending and therefore had hope for a brighter tommorrow. I agree that perception is very important in our economy. I think it more likely that the recession of Bush Sr.'s administration was the result of Reagan overspending.

As for there being a finite amout of money out there, it's true. The government only brings in so much from taxes. What they get is divided amongst all the government programs. A budget increase for NASA is on the chopping block because of irresponcible spending.

Ian, you are right. We should be much more selective with what wars we fight. The more wars we wage, the more enemys we make, its a rather simple concept that most don't understand. I don't think we need to lay off our soilders though. We could cut military spending in half by eliminating rather foolish and wasteful programs like missle defence.

I disagree that it makes sense to go into deficits ever. Regardless of how important or unimportant they are, it's not good buisness or responcible. I suggest that the military create a 'war fund' that it can dip into in times of need. Since we no longer get a 'peace-dividend' because we are always at war with someone now, I say that our military should be more responcible and quit wasting so much. They can then take this money and put it in the 'war fund'.

#297 Re: Human missions » beating a dead horse? - more russian mars stories » 2004-05-11 06:38:49

It is a well known fact that Russian made rockets are much cheaper. I believe they can do it, but will they? It's hard to say, they have the support of their space program and the public. Remember that Mars Direct was based on using Titans not Soyuz, so yes it could be done for 5 billion, but I wouldn't bet on it.

#298 Re: Human missions » New Bush Plan Set To Coincide With June Speech - Link included....talk amongst yourselves » 2004-05-11 06:33:45

Not to get started on politics again, but I won't be voting for Bush no matter what. Had we not racked up record deficits the past three years after Clinton surpluses, PlanBush wouldn't be facing a hostile Congress right now. And I'm sorry, but two speeches doesn't constitute strong civil space support.

#299 Re: Human missions » One way trip to Mars? » 2004-05-11 06:17:26

Unfortunately, we aren't talking about desperate people traveling in leaky boats. Any mission to Mars, even Mars Direct or something cheaper is going to be a huge investment for someone. If the russians pull off their claim and go to Mars on 5 billion dollars then that's about as close to a leaky boat we are going to get, but still they are coming back. However, making it to Mars on 5 billion would go a long way towards a colonizing effort.

#300 Re: Human missions » One way trip to Mars? » 2004-05-10 19:22:22

As nice as it would be for Congress to allocate 1 percent of our GDP to a Mars colonizing effort, it won't happen. Our GDP is much greater than our annual budget which is 2.2 trillion dollars. Out of the budget, not the GDP, NASA currently gets only .6 percent.

C M Edwards-I follow ya, but it could be cheaper. If we send automations beforehand to prepare onsite food and other resources, then we don't need to ship everything needed to sustain humans.

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