You are not logged in.
Mutually assured destruction has worked well over the past half century, but it is so unpredictable that we should not rely on MAD for protection. MAD only works when rational people control the nuclear stockpiles. What would happen if extremists overthrew Gen. Musharraf and took control of Pakistan's weapons? India would be a smoking crater. The problem is that there are many radicals who are willing to gamble with the lives of their own people because their greatest achievement would be "dying for Allah." We need theatre missile defenses to keep the peace between India and Pakistan, and to stop Iraq from threatening the middle east. As an engineer I'm confident that "hitting a bullet with a bullet" will work--the past six or so tests of the National Missile Defense have been complete successes.
Yes, fuel cells do run on hydrogen. The point I'm trying to make is that these fuel cells should be versatile. It would be preferrable if they ran on the hydrogen feedstock. But if that wasn't available, they could use a catalyst to break down the methane from the Sabatier reaction and use that hydrogen for fuel. This is the same technology the power companies are developing for home fuel cells.
Sea Launch, for example, is a totally international effort. Boeing(USA), Yuznoyhe(Ukraine), Energia(Russia), and Kravener(Norway) are all major partners. Sea Launch has met with considerable commercial success in an already bloated launch market where supply exceeds demand. The key to cost control is fixed price commercial contracts. There is nothing inherantly less efficient about multinational efforts.
Sea Launch has succeeded because it is a PRIVATE international venture, as opposed to a government-funded collaboration. The teams involved in Sea Launch all speak the same language: Capitalism! When you try to get the government space programs together for a non-profit venture, things fall apart, because everybody wants something different and each agency is looking out for its own interests. Case in point: the ISS. Russia was unable to pay for its portion of the ISS, so the U.S. gave them some more money to finish it. Now the U.S. doesn't have the money to finish its habitiation module, and the Europeans are b####ing about it.
As for your fixation with fixed price contracts, Rob, I suggest you read the book "The $5 Billion Misunderstanding" by James P. Stevenson. It details the demise of the Navy's A-12 medium bomber, and much of it has to do with the government's insistence on a fixed-price contract. The Navy's timetable was too rigid and there were too many unknowns in the design of the A-12 to justify that kind of contract. Any humans-to-Mars project will be even more complicated than the A-12, and there will be many more unknowns that need to be solved from the beginning of the design process to the time hardware is built.
In light of India and Pakistan's willingness to kill each other over Kashmir, I think that defense against nuclear attack is a necessity. But I do not think that the current program will be sufficient to solve the world's needs. Any American missile defense will offend the rest of the nuclear powers because it undermines their strategic deterrent. What I propose instead is an international missile defense effort, composed of the nuclear powers. This would give the nations a defense against nuclear attack, preserve the strategic balance of power, and presssure nations with secret nuclear arsenals (Israel and others) to come out of the shadows.
The National Missile Defense would only give the United States a shot at defending aganst an accidental launch, or at best a first strike by China. A space based defense that was financed and developed by the nuclear nations would be a far better solution. A more pressing need than National Missile Defense is theatre missile defense, such as the THAAD system. If India and Pakistan both had THAAD, they could forget about firing nuclear missiles at each other. It would also eliminate any hope that Saddam Hussein would have of launching more SCUD missile attacks.
I would definitely like to see fuel cells on Mars, and I believe that they will come of age as the automotive industy and the utility companies do more research.
Fuel cells are more efficient than internal combustion engines but they are much heavier than a combustion engine with the same power output. That's why companies like Ford and Volkswagen are working feverishly to reduce the size of the fuel cells. Chrysler was also working on a catalyst system that would extract hydrogen from normal petroleum. The power companies are going one step further, trying to build a catalyst that will take the hydrogen from natural gas on home fuel cells.
Assuming that we launch Mars Direct before 2020, that will give industry about ten years to make lightweight fuel cells that run on the methane produced in the Sabatier reactor. I would say that the odds are good for using fuel cells during the first exploration of Mars.
According to the ideal gas law, there are two methods of reducing the volume that a gas occupies: reducing the temperature (as NASA does with cryogenic fuels) or increasing the pressure. As an alternative to keeping the methane or hydrogen fuel in cryogenic storage, would it be practical to simply keep them under pressure? Although my knowledge of thermodynamics is lacking, I do believe that this arrangement would result in a lower efficiency than cryogenic propellants.
Now that we are aware of abundant water deposits on Mars, a lot of options are open to us for Mars Direct. For example, the water can be electrolyzed into hydrogen and oxygen for fuel, with no need for hydrgogen feedstock or martian carbon dioxide. However, this fuel combination is highly cryogenic. It would be possible to save on the weight of the fuel tanks by using storable propellants--namely, Kerosene and Hydrogen Peroxide. The Kerosene can be brought from earth, while the peroxide can be manufactured from either the water or from the soil (as I understand it, Martian soil is rich in peroxide ions, but I could be wrong here.)
For more on the applications of hydrogen peroxide, check out: http://members.aol.com/dsfportree/ex87b.htm
After reading the story, it is clear that the Buran in question, which was the subject of a failed auction by the radio station, is the un-spaceworthy aerodynamic test article once on display in Australia.
The unique feature about this shuttle is the ability for powered flight under its four jet engines. Just imagine tooling around in your own space shuttle whil the rest of the general aviation crowd is flying Cessnas
If I had the money, I'd buy it in a heartbeat, and I'm sure that most of you feel the same way. I hope that some aviation museum has the good sense to buy it before the owners decide to sell it for scrap.
There is a lot of confusion about the wherabouts of Burans and the static test articles. A static test article sits on display in Gorky Park, while the Aerodynamic test article (equivalent to the American "Enterprise" with jet engines) is on display in Australia. The only Buran to have flown in space was slated to go on display somewhere in Russia until several events took place last month. First, a radio station in LA tried to auction off one of the shuttles or mockups (it wasn't revealed which one they were selling.) Then the Buran hangar collapsed. I had heard that none of the shuttles were in the hangar at the time, but I've been hearing conflicting reports about this. I don't know if there are two Burans for sale, or if the topic of this thread is the Buran being auctioned by the radio station.
NASA should not be blamed for the destruction of the Saturn V tooling. The decision actually came straight from Congress, and people like Senator William Proxmire, who continually claimed that space exploration was a waste of money. I still believe that NASA has the Saturn V plans safely locked up. At least that's what NASA officials say when people claim the plans were destroyed.
Reviving the Saturn V is possible, but it isn't very practical because the tooling was destroyed in the early 1970's. With today's technology we can build a better booster. Of course, it would be nice if we could revive production on the ENGINES for the Saturn V, because we have fallen woefully behind the Russians in terms of engine development since the end of Apollo.
I share your feelings about solid rocket boosters, but I disagree about the use of Energia boosters on a Mars rocket. The Energia boosters were the basis for the first stage of the Zenit. As you know, Boeing now markets the Zenit for commercial space launches. I don't think that NASA, Congress, or the taxpayers would have a problem with using Zenit first stages, bought from Boeing, on the Mars rocket.
The moon and Mars are the most popular targets of our desire to explore beyond the earth. But the exploration of Venus was also on NASA's drawing boards as recently as the early 1960's. Of course, we now know that Venus is a hellish and unforgiving planet. Still, it would be a terrific engineering challenge to get humans there someday. Once we set up outposts on the moon and Mars, and once we can mine and possibly destroy near-earth asteroids, would it be worth the time, money, and effort to send humans to Venus?
Shaun, that was my point exactly. I can just imagine a 21st century "Sanford and Son," salvaging old satellites and selling them from their orbiting junkyard.
Returning the satellites to earth will be a bigger problem, as none of them have thermal protection systems. On-orbit repair might be a better solution. It might also be possible to build an unmanned shuttle that could deploy a solar-electric engine after it reached orbit. It would collect satellites for a year or so and then deorbit and land on a runway.
The Mars Direct hab structure actually weighs more than the NASA hab structure, but apparently Zubrin didn't factor in the weight of the descent engines or propellant.
My critique of the hab doesn't end there, however. It doesn't provide a cockpit for the astronauts to sit in during launch from earth, nor are there any control panels. In all of the interior drawings of the hab, only the top floor is shown. What about the lower decks?
Mars Direct is over ten years old, and we know a lot more about spacecraft design now than we did in 1990. The Mars Society should prepare a "Mars Direct 2.0" which takes advantage of advances in life support, materials, nuclear power and propulsion, and engines and construction techniques developed for the Atlas V and Delta IV.
For example, an Ares rocket built with a Super-Light Weight ET (introduced in 1998) and powered by four RS-68 engines (to fly this July) would kick the pants off the original Ares. It might even be possible to replace each SRB with two Atlas V Common Core Boosters, which will improve the safety margins of the booster. Having a pro-nuclear president will help, as a nuclear thermal rocket in the upper stage may boost its lift capacity by 20 tonnes.
Good ideas to trim down the mass of Mars Direct? I have a few. For starters:
1. Use composites wherever they would save weight.
2. The ERV should find something better than the methane/oxygen fuel mixture. You could dispense with some of the tankage and Sabatier reactors if you used a nuclear thermal reactor that heated compressed carbon dioxide. Better yet, you could land at one of the water deposits and use the ice to make hydrogen and oxygen fuel.
3. Use ballutes (inflatable balloon-parachutes) for landing. The parachutes will be heavier than normal but it might eliminate the need for descent engines and propellant on the hab lander.
4. Integrate the aerobrake with the hab's outer skin. This is a key feature of the lander in NASA's DRM 3.0.
Space salvage will become useful and economical once we have unmanned, ion-powered space tugs to round it up. The high efficiency of the ion engines will reduce fuel costs and make space salvage, even the disposal of space junk, an economic boon.
Once we iron out the political roadblocks, I believe that Orion would be technically feasible. To back up what Dayton3 said, I present the following: in the book "Sum of All Fears," an 11.2 KT nuclear bomb cannot completely destroy a football stadium. I'm certain that Tom Clancy's assumption is based on his consultation with experts in bomb effects. The question is not whether the pusher plate can survive one nuclear blast, but whether it can take repeated nyuclear blasts. The original team behind Orion did create a pusher plate that survived several conventional blasts, and Von Braun became a supporter of Orion when he saw the demonstration.
In the American nuclear stockpile, we have large quantities of B61 gravity bombs, each with a low-end yield of 3 KT. I would like to see if Orion could be modified to use these warheads.
After looking at Mars Direct and the NASA Design Reference Mission 3.0, I've noticed some disparity between the mass estimates of the two plans. Namely, the habitat lander in NASA's blueprint is over 12 tonnes heavier than Zubrin's. Some of the difference can be attributed to Zubrin's decision to go with a crew of four instead of six, but I don't think that it can cause that large of a difference. Along the smae line, I think that Zubrin's decision to eliminate the dedicated doctor from Mars Direct is a mistake. On a mission lasting for 2.5 years, a doctor is a necessity. It is also true that with a 5-person crew would have a better "group dynamic" than a crew of four or six. Studies show that odd-numbered groups usually work better than even numbered groups.
I'd really like to hear the forum's thoughts about these subjects, or at least on different facets of Mars Direct. Only constructive criticisms will turn Mars Direct into a reality.
The Space Exploration Act would be a lot more realistic if reusable spacecraft were not required. Granted, a fully-reusable RLV for transport to earth orbit has been long overdue, but the first landing on Mars will be too difficult to accomplish if we must wait for someone to develop an RLV to take us there and back.
I really can't say whether a lunar return or an asteriod landing is essential before we go to Mars. I've always thought of lunar return as more of a private venture instead of a NASA project. Still, a lunar return will give us much needed experience in living for long periods of time in reduced gravity and building closed-loop life support systems.
If we choose Mars Direct as a baseline, there needs to be some kind of demonstration flight which proves that humans can survive the flight to Mars and the surface stay in reduced artificial gravity. Although we will still need a test of the machinery that will spin to provide the artificial gravity, an extended stay on the moon will help us to study the effects of Martian gravity much more realistically than an extended stay on the ISS.
Canth, thanks for the link to that site. The info was good, especially the section about high-ISp, high-density hydrocarbons.
My only question is why anybody would use a PDE, with an ISp of 600 seconds, whan a ramjet or combined-cycle has an ISp of 1500 seconds. Perhaps the PDE is lighter and can operate in all flight regimes from takeoff to orbit.
After the discovery of underground H2O on Mars, Rep. Lampson's bill seems both timely and necessary. NASA insiders say that Mars Sample Return is a priority again, and that a manned mission will take place in 20 years. Rep. Lampson's bill will allow this to happen.
On the downside, the Lampson bill sounds too much like the Space Exploration Initiative, and its goals may be too rigid, in the sense that the initiative will fall apart if one of the goals isn't met. I agreed with the Space Exploration Initiative and its goal of a long term, national commitment to space exploration. Unfortunately, Congress didn't, and I do not think that their collective opinion has changed.
The Lampson bill also reminds me of LBJ's support for Apollo: he saw it as a federal jobs program that would benefit Texas. Congress rarely supports programs if they do not have pork barrel spending attached. In order for space to become a national priority, every state needs to gain something economically from the space program, and the lawmakers need to realize the benefits of space funding.
I'm sorry if this is a "stupid" question, but how do we know for certain that Mars's underground water deposits are ice, not liquid? Richard C. Hoaglund, as much as he may seem like a crackpot, makes a convincing argument that liquid water can exist at low altitudes on the Martian surface. If (and that's a really big "if",) liquid water oceans exist under Mars's surface, it is entirely possible that an ecosystem, similar to those around the undersea gas vents, exists on Mars.
NASA has mentioned "Pulse Detonation Engines" on some of its websites as a future propulsion technology. If I'm not mistaken, this type of engine is allegedly used to propel the "Aurora" Mach 6 spyplane. I've seen a patent drawing for such an engine before but I've heard several different explanationson how one would operate. I also don't understand why an airbreathing engine would be adapted for space travel. Can anybody shed some light on the situation?
I'm sensing a lot of opposition to a sample return mission. I do not believe that a sample return will give us a definite answer to questions about life on Mars, but I still believe that we should launch one in order to TEST THE TECHNOLOGIES for a humans-to-mars mission in a real-world scenario. In "Case for Mars," Zubrin's sample return is seen as a prototype for his propellant-production plant that will be used in Mars Direct. In another iteration, MSR would use an ion engine for transit to and from Mars, paving the way for this novel engine to be used on a manned mission. It will also be interesting to see whether humans could survive a direct entry at Mars or on the return to earth, or if they would need to be decelerated into an orbit around the planet before they descended. Instrumentation aboard MSR would give us a definite answer.
I really like your thinking regarding the ISS, and I'm trying to think of what modifications would be needed (aside from engines used for earth escape.) The life support loop would need to be closed, so the ISS wouldn't need to rely on Progress resupply ships. And any modules that are not necessary for cycler duties should be discarded. Because the solar panels would be less effective as the station got closer to Mars, they would have to be augmented, possibly with a nuclear reactor.
It is not currently possible to retrieve the Russian reactors that currently orbit the earth. These satellites have been placed in "doomsday orbits" that are quite high above the earth and will not decay for thousands of years.