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#226 Re: Human missions » One-way ticket - An obvious cost cutting step » 2004-06-25 04:20:13
No I was not questioning the reason for a mission to Mars but if I should pay for an astronaut that doesn't want to return to Earth as planned.
#227 Re: Human missions » One-way ticket - An obvious cost cutting step » 2004-06-24 17:00:29
Good idea but will the American public accept paying $15 billion a year to keep that astronaut alive?
Uh - Mars Direct estimates $7B for each mission subsequent to the first. My estimate is that a re-supply mission every 2 years would probably take about $200M - so $100M even if the colonists can't become mostly self-sufficient. And that's for 10 colonists, so it's about $10M per colonist.
My more optimistic projection is that we'd end up sending another group of colonists along instead of just a re-supply mission. If we do that every 2 years for $8B each time, that'd be $100M/person_yr for the second mission, $67M/person_yr for the 3rd, $50M/person_yr for the 4th, etc.
If we then stopped sending colonists at 40, and just sent $200M supply missions every 2 years, it's only $2.5M/person_yr. Quite a bit below your $15B estimate!
Ok just got the figures of some real numbers not theoretical as Mars Direct.
And this http://science.howstuffworks.com/mars-r … tm]website states:
Cost: Approximately $820 million total (for both rovers)
$645 million for design/development + $100 million for the Delta launch vehicle and the launch + $75 million for mission operations
So that’s just 100 million for launching two tiny rovers and 75 for operations.
---
Your $2.5 million sounds good and should be even cheaper then sending a soldier to Iraq and keep him supplied and happy.
#228 Re: Human missions » One-way ticket - An obvious cost cutting step » 2004-06-24 16:51:38
Good idea but will the American public accept paying $15 billion a year to keep that astronaut alive?
Uh - Mars Direct estimates $7B for each mission subsequent to the first. My estimate is that a re-supply mission every 2 years would probably take about $200M - so $100M even if the colonists can't become mostly self-sufficient. And that's for 10 colonists, so it's about $10M per colonist.
My more optimistic projection is that we'd end up sending another group of colonists along instead of just a re-supply mission. If we do that every 2 years for $8B each time, that'd be $100M/person_yr for the second mission, $67M/person_yr for the 3rd, $50M/person_yr for the 4th, etc.
If we then stopped sending colonists at 40, and just sent $200M supply missions every 2 years, it's only $2.5M/person_yr. Quite a bit below your $15B estimate!
So if I decide to live in Antartica, that means the US goverment is obliged to invest $10 a year in me, just so that I can keep my personal believes?
#229 Re: Human missions » One-way ticket - An obvious cost cutting step » 2004-06-24 16:48:53
Did the Roman Empire hesitate on entertainment ?
Christians, lions, slaves, virgins, gladiators.
The only reason they did that was so that the people wouldn't riot. I can imagine people rioting with humans on Mars.
BTW: You forgot that the Roman Empire give a lot and even more then a lot of free food during these events.
US voter and taxpayer owes it to the world,
Having borrowed a large portion of the world's resources.
Maybe it just owes improving the daily lives of people on Earth? Not some elite group of military/sciencitists astronauts.
If the people really believed these kinds of things then the soviet empire wouldn't have fallen as it proved it was at least equal to the west in space technology. But no they wanted improvements in their daily lives.
#230 Re: Human missions » One-way ticket - An obvious cost cutting step » 2004-06-24 16:39:25
Thats all cool but I'm not going to pay for their ideals.
#231 Re: Human missions » One-way ticket - An obvious cost cutting step » 2004-06-24 16:25:40
Good idea but will the American public accept paying $15 billion a year to keep that astronaut alive?
#232 Re: Human missions » Using illegal goods to make mars profitable - The Martian Mafia??? » 2004-06-24 14:05:15
Well anyway the countries with the most settlers on Mars will eventually decide what business mentality will be the most dominant.
No let me rephrase that, it will be the factions with the best connections to earth (knowledge, money, high-tech gadgets, people), best schools (uni's), most stable leaderships, Mars specific knowledge, freedoms, entertainment and those that have the money to make things happen, that will dominate Mars’s culture.
So depending on what faction (American, European, Russian, Chinese, Indian) is able to meet these requirements they will decide from their respective cultures what’s moral and what’s not.
The Russians may like the idea of anonymous accounts, perhaps the others not. The Chinese may like a socialist government, the others may not. The Americans may like personal weapons such as guns and a decentralized style of government, the others may not.
#233 Re: Human missions » The Case Against Mars - Why Mars is not a good target! » 2004-06-23 10:32:20
For those who are interested professor koelles website is here it is slow to download but rather full of information
Its dead Jim 
You made a typo in the link. You placed a . instead of - (tu.berlin and its tu-berlin)
The correct link is: http://vulcain.fb12.tu-berlin.de/ILR/pe … oelle.html
Funny thing is that it loads fast in Mozilla Firefox but slow in IE6
#234 Re: Human missions » The Case Against Mars - Why Mars is not a good target! » 2004-06-23 10:25:30
Our present technology, actual iron on the pad is better than any theoretical wonder-tech for practical purposes.
And no it isn't a wonder tech. Its possible to do it in labs right here right now and in 1980 labs..
Why I added “theoretically” is because it hasn't been done anywhere except for the labs and pieces of the self-replicating machines have only been used here and there (car factory, refineries) but never together.
Of course there is a political dimension. Who will own and control these self-replicating machines?
I don't understand why this is a question.
#235 Re: Human missions » Using illegal goods to make mars profitable - The Martian Mafia??? » 2004-06-23 10:23:31
How about this, I'm sooo paranoid I don't have a bank account
Well now, in that case I've got the very thing for you--an anonymous account at the Bank of Mars.
How does an anonymous account at the Bank of Mars work?
I mean ok to deposit money it will work but to retrieve money from it, you will need to some prove that the account is yours. And so setting one up would require information about you.
#236 Re: Human missions » The Case Against Mars - Why Mars is not a good target! » 2004-06-23 10:05:25
The paper you are looking for is
Advanced Automation for Space Missions
N83-15348 Nasa conference publication Pub 1982
You can find the paper for free http://sources.wikipedia.org/wiki/Advan … tents]here hosted on wikipedia and added to it by one of the authors.
#237 Re: Human missions » The Case Against Mars - Why Mars is not a good target! » 2004-06-23 09:46:31
yes, yes, wonderful. Give me the part numbers and specs of the operational unit.
You are right there isn't any operational unit. It's just that this is the way I would do it if I had NASA's budget.
Oh, there aren't any. And that's my point. by all means let's develop this technology, but forcing ourselves to rely on equipment we don't have when it isn't vitally needed at this stage makes no sense.
At what stage are you then?
#238 Re: Human missions » The Case Against Mars - Why Mars is not a good target! » 2004-06-23 09:39:43
It will be possible soon after to create more drones at the base this will rapidly allow expansion. And we can experiment to find drones that work better in the hard terrain of the moon. Eventually we will completely automate the drones but we dont need to at the start.
I agree with what you say and it was not my plan to do so.
I envision something like a power/nuclear plant. Were almost everything works by it self and you have guys in a control room checking the data and making corrections. If something goes wrong a guy will suit up walk to the machine and give it a kick to get it working agian.
#239 Re: Human missions » The Case Against Mars - Why Mars is not a good target! » 2004-06-23 09:32:45
Otherwise we're sitting on Earth waiting for some rich nut to wake up one morning and say "hot damn, I need to build me some self-replicating robots and uber-rockets to build cities on Mars!"
The NASA study said that the whole self replicating plant would weigh about 100 tons. So no need for uber-rockets.
So that would be 1 and a half of the shuttle c launches. (60 tons)
5 Ariane V launches. (20 tons)
And four shuttle missions. (25 tons)
#240 Re: Human missions » The Case Against Mars - Why Mars is not a good target! » 2004-06-23 09:21:57
Our present technology, actual iron on the pad is better than any theoretical wonder-tech for practical purposes.
And no it isn't a wonder tech. Its possible to do it in labs right here right now and in 1980 labs..
Why I added “theoretically” is because it hasn't been done anywhere except for the labs and pieces of the self-replicating machines have only been used here and there (car factory, refineries) but never together.
#241 Re: Human missions » The Case Against Mars - Why Mars is not a good target! » 2004-06-23 09:17:47
Well you will need automated machines one whay or the other. As with this rocket technology you can't expect to send a few thousand of people into space and make them build the shelters and do every day tasks.
#242 Re: Human missions » The Case Against Mars - Why Mars is not a good target! » 2004-06-23 09:09:47
We almost have to go in little rockets with dry food in boxes and live in metal cans before we can go in fusion liners and live in cities built for us by self-replicating robots. Kind of a paradox, we don't have the tech to properly settle the planet, and we won't until we get there and try.
No, self-replication robots were a theoretically possible in 1980. As a NASA study proved.
Look at this http://sources.wikipedia.org/wiki/Advan … tents]nasa study or look at this http://www.newmars.com/forums/viewtopic … 804]thread on this forum and look for my post, which is the 7th.
#243 Re: Human missions » The Case Against Mars - Why Mars is not a good target! » 2004-06-23 08:56:03
You don't need to colonize the stars to do science, so why go?
However Mars, Venus, the asteroids and other planets mean more resources and more money if exploited and this means more money and cheaper building materials for science. Also better science instruments and no limitations due to zero gravity manufacturing and no one to harm in deep space when things go wrong.
But still I say not now but in the future yes.
#244 Re: Human missions » The Case Against Mars - Why Mars is not a good target! » 2004-06-23 08:50:14
“I don’t think the human race will survive the next thousand years unless we spread into space.”
Physicist Stephen Hawking speaking to Britain’s Daily Telegraph Newspaper as reported by Reuters on October 15, 2001.
= = =
The world probably will not end anytime soon.
Yet if we expand into space, our species might well become extiction-proof.
= = =
I agree that whoever settles space first is NOT assured to shape future human culture as it spreads across the solar sytem.
But you cannot win if you don't play.
The 1000 year plan is ok. But now going somewhere more then orbit with what we have is like crossing the ocean on a raft.
Not saying its impossible, as is crossing the ocean on a raft is possible and proven. Just you know, it will be a flag and footprint mission. I'm not interested in those. Its great but I can think better ways of spending that money.
I don't think Stephen Hawking is interested in flag and footprint missions either.
As soon as someone is persueing the von Neumann machines plan, then I'm interested. I don't even follow the rover missions, nor does the apollo project interest me and the ISS can burn in the atmosphere.
I don't think we are going to expand in space as long as the government has to pay for everything.
And Stephen Hawking said in the next 1000 years, a 1000 years is a long time.
So basically I'm putting all me money on robotics and nothing else.
#245 Re: Human missions » One-way ticket - An obvious cost cutting step » 2004-06-23 04:54:45
If you launch using the russian Energia you can ship Mars Direct + your enhancements in one go:
As it currently stands, Russia's Energia heavy lift booster can lift up to 175 tonnes of payload into orbit (8 boosters + Energia-M upper stage). That is 75 more than the Mars mission requirement, and 145 more than the U.S shuttle. The Energia system is safe, strenuously developed over 20 years and running on liquid propellant. It has a 100 percent launch success rate and is designed to be fully reusable, in addition the Energia-T derivative offers flyback booster options!
See english website http://k26.com/buran/html/energia-mars.html]here
#246 Re: Human missions » The Case Against Mars - Why Mars is not a good target! » 2004-06-22 16:02:31
:laugh:
Smurf, Bill is quite intelligent and talented.
I think you may misunderstand this conversation between us, we've been having it for a while (in various forms, on various topics). We all play a part, and Bill invariably plays his all too well. :;):
Ok, but his arguments (not his thoughts) will get him no where. He is saying basically that the end of Earth is near, we need Mars. How many times have people in history told that before?
Basically he is speaking like a cult leader: "The end is near, the others are blind sheep, they can't understand, we are better, follow me."
#247 Re: Human missions » The Case Against Mars - Why Mars is not a good target! » 2004-06-22 15:46:36
On other words too many people are too greedy, dense and short sighted to get the message when spelled out bluntly.
Maybe you are not able to explain nature your plans well, as it it has no other message then: "We are all going to die!", we need Mars.
No we don't need Mars and the human race is not going extinct in the next 100 year. Even with AIDS, war and hunger. Humans have gone through a lot of bad situations for instance the black plaque.
Global warming can be fought by other means and should be anyway should there be humans on Mars or not. This counts also for many of your other arguments.
It takes a great person to explain something difficult as simple. If you can't that means you don't understand it your self and you are just acting like a robot spitting out information that was fed into you.
Now instead of saying that anyone that doesn't agree with you is stupid, come up with a solid business plan. As you are so smart that should be easy for you.
#248 Re: Human missions » Using illegal goods to make mars profitable - The Martian Mafia??? » 2004-06-22 15:04:29
So you want to create a bank whose sole cache is that people can't see what you are doing. Why? What for? to what end?
Privacy, you have a lot of family owned businesses that don't want to let everyone know how rich they are, an example would be the owner of Ikea.
Think what you want, but this is making yourself part and party to any of the criminal activity since you take active steps to prevent your ability to know who it is you are doing business with. You don't care where the money comes from, fine. You don't care what they do with the money you hide for them, fine. But it is wrong if it enables others to use your services to do ill to their fellow man.
So you are saying that the whole swiss bank account system is based on criminal money?
And no its not only the swiss banking policy but also because its a stable country that doesn't enter wars, changes sides and its neutral that make it attractive to many people
Followed to the logical end... you're slipping down the slope, not me. But go ahead, scram about the various extremes, that are inevitably taken to their logical extreme. The bank would have the means to identify the customers, it chooses not to, so it becomes complicit in the crime.
Two words: Paper companies. They are used all the time even for swiss bank accounts. So ID will not say much anyway. That is unless you are on some wanted list personally.
#249 Re: Human missions » The Case Against Mars - Why Mars is not a good target! » 2004-06-22 14:51:10
And if shaping the future doesn't matter, then it doesn't really matter, does it?
Sure it does, I guess. Abyss and all that mumbo jumbo aside, is this future you wish to shape neccessarily any better?
How many people have lived in the last 3000 years? On one level its a rhetorical question, on another it can be answered by statistical analysis.
In that time we have had ONE Shakespeare, ONE da Vinci, many but finite numbers of lesser artists.
Simple bell curve analysis suggests that if as many people were born in 2150 as lived during the last 3000 years that generation will have one Shakespeare all by itself. Another Jane Austen, or John Keats, who might not die young and thus give us wonders we cannot imagine.
= IF = I limit myself to Western artists that is a sign of my own limitations, not any deliberate attempt to exclude others.
= = =
The skills that will be needed to survive OUT THERE will require an awareness of ecology and interconnectedness that those of us who blithely rely on our Terran Gaia for our sustenance often fail to appreciate or even recognize.
I don't think you will get far with the argument of you people are to stupid to realize how smart my ideas may be.
Just because you are interested in Mars doesn't make the other stupid.
You know what take that mentality and try to start a company. You will get laughed at.
:edited
#250 Re: Human missions » Using illegal goods to make mars profitable - The Martian Mafia??? » 2004-06-22 14:38:45
Oh, I don't know, perhaps instuting a policy that allows you to identify the accounts with the individual might be a way to help.
... which would defeat the purpose of the bank in the first place.
The single and sole attraction of the Bank of Mars would be that the accounts are annonymous.
It doesn't matter anyway. Any big time crook will set up a string of paper companies that can't be traced back to him. Unless you require Martian banks to do more investigation then earth based banks?
I'm sure that if Al Quada sets up an account on Mars and the US can prove it, that it will be closed, swiss banks would do the same.