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And a few jobs of the people already working for Bigelow - no new, additional jobs at all - is supposed to make Congress so mad with lust for Bigelow's money that they will all collectivly overlook the risk of giving technology to China for a chance at the piece of the small time action?
Making what happen? So far, private and profitable small-time/gov't-free spaceflight is still a pipe dream, even post-SS1, nobody can come up with a really convincing business case. And yes, I am asserting that the economics of space tourism, particularly orbital tourism which will be limited to the super-rich alone, is a questionable proposition in light of the earlier threads. How many people, how often, for how much per ticket and how much for launch? Paying off a 100's of millions for development bill replacing sounding rockets or universit payloads? Specialty hypersonic air freight? I have heard no convincing response from you or anyone else Clark that it will make a profit... show us the money as the saying goes.
Neither Russian nor Chinese manned/supply vehicles can possibly be launched for less than around $30-40M, it just isn't going to happen... Elon Musk's little Falcon-V even if it is built will still be too small for manned flight... provided he can even launch his dinky little one-ton toy.
In fact, I wouldn't put it beyond Congress to axe the madman Bigelow's Chinese relations just to keep China from getting brownie prestige points, since things aren't looking good for Nasa.
PS: Oh, and "build it and they will come" arguments are getting a little worn don't you think? There are simply not enough people with enough money who want to do this to make a sustainable cashflow... a few millionaires, corperate joy-rides, televised space vacation sweepstakes... thats about it. Making noises about DH-1 style RLVs or "it just has to make $0.01! net profit" are not credible arguments.
PPS: I would even venture to state, that the lack of sucessful smalltime spaceflight outfits, given that rocket technology has not really improved a great deal since carbon fiber composits became available, is strong evidence that it cannot be done for a profit.
Pardon for me on stepping in and actually providing numbers, but I thought that this piece of your post actually deserved such. Namely in response Falcon V's ability, well it has a quoted to ISS orbit payload capacity of 3,570 kg which incidently very near the Gemini capsule's wet weight of 3,851 kg. Seems like saying that it is impossible for use as a manned launch system is currently premature. Of course deciding that it is going to be used for a manned launch at some point in time is also premature, considering it has not launched unmanned as of yet. Still Elon Musk is out to make money, and seems to have done a good job of it in the past if he can 'throw' away 1-2 hundred million dollars, and for that reason alone, I think the launches for the Falcon and the future Falcon V will be successful.
Visited by moderator 2022/04/30
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