New Mars Forums

No it is my prediction of the outcome of anything like Mars One if they actually do succeed in landing people on Mars. Without proper exploration missions attempts at colonization will almost certainly be lethal. In point of fact the reason map makers put "there be dragons" was not because of any belief in dragons but because most people who strayed from mapped territory never returned. They did not think dragons ate them but they may as well have as far as they were concerned.

Colonization will not begin until we have enough exploration data to make a good guess about a colony location. Any colony that is attempted before then is doomed to certain failure. That said Mars "covered wagon" colonies to explore secondary site sound like a very good idea to me. Though initial exploration will provide enough data to choose a site with a very high chance of a successful colony it will not find prime locations for a colony to thrive. A mobile colony seems like a good idea of a way of prospecting for a prime location.

Here is hoping 2 is the charmer.

What you are talking about is called a grease pencil. Artist know it well. They also come in mechanical pencil varieties that would likely pass muster in space.

I would like to note that your numbers are pure invention. You have sited no source and make multiple assumption such as the life span of the ribbon (I will stop calling it a cable because no one thinks that will be the design). I think you have drastically over estimated the cost of the elevator and underestimated rocket development.
The current projected development cost for the NASA SLS is around $40B.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Laun … gram_costs

The space elevator has been estimated to cost a similar amount is estimated for development AND construction of the SE. The numbers are from a 2003 proposal but it allotted almost $5B to launch and boster to take the initial payload to Geo. By the end of this year the Falcon Heavy will have flown and will be able to deliver the entire in as little as one launch for the cost of $85M. This would be a reduction of $4B in the estimated costs. so even if other costs are higher it is likely to cost less than the SLS as this proposal includes an assumption of a 100% cost overrun.
http://www.mill-creek-systems.com/HighL … ter11.html
http://www.spacex.com/about/capabilities

I do not take this personally but this did seem to provide a large number of examples of the assumption that it is impossible. Your statement that it was another way there was not enough demand for it seems to ignore the fact that I went on to say just that.

Comparing it to the highway system I think is a huge distortion of the scale. The main thing it ignore is the fact that the entire mass of the ribbon (cable) would be less than any of the numerous record breaking high rises recently built. The scale of the project would be epic but well within our current engineering capacity.

Your discussion of cost is for the most part choosing numbers. From what I have heard SpaceX hope to reduce launch cost by an order of magnitude. SE advocate suggest that it could reduce launch cost by 2 orders of magnitude. Also the cost to build payloads would be reduced by the fact that they would not need to be constructed to deal with the stresses of a rocket launch.

The fact is that all your technological hurdles are only engineering challenges. The ribbon is the only thing that is impossible today, we have yet to develop a material that is strong enough. Also you have a major factual error, the 350 km break length should actually stated as a sea level break length. It is stated that way because it is a way to ignore the change in gravity with height. A material would actually only need a 5,000 km sea level break length to reach GEO. So the T1000 fiber would only need to be 15 times stronger. Still a long way to go but a lot more doable.

Most of your "Technical hurdles" relate to ribbon failure. You discuss it as if you are unaware that the issues might have already been considered. For example cable designs that are more robust so micro meteor do not cause failure are being developed for use with currently available fibers because NASA intends to make use of tethers.

Your argument that it will have to be stronger to carry passengers assumes it will carry passengers. This is a myth of many space elevator advocate. It is very likely that a payload on the SE will take one week to reach GEO. It will take an hour just to reach the edge of the atmosphere. Unless it is as a tour bus to the edge of space I do not think many people will be riding the SE. The SE will be a cargo train, rocket will be the passenger planes.

I am sure someone has posted this some time in the past. In the long term I think this will be the best solution for getting to Mars. I have a theory on why it has attracted so few backers. It is too good for its own good. What I mean by that is it would work so well it would put itself out of business. A small design could lift 5 tons a day. In the first year of operation it would be able to lift almost 1,800 tons to GEO. That is more than ALL the payloads currently scheduled globally. Most of those payloads will not be ready to lift off for years.

Most think that we just do not have the technology for it. The fact is the only piece missing is the material for the cable. It will probably surprise people to find out that solving this may be closer then you may suspect. KONE is currently producing an elevator cable called UltraRope containing CNT that is one seventh the weight of a steel cable and twice the strength. Doing the math that should mean the their design should have 14 times the breaking length of steel. That would make it as good or better than any other material available. UltraRope is likely making use of somewhat dated CNT manufacturing techniques as it has been under development for the past decade. Rice University 2 years ago reported a new method of making CNT thread that should be scalable to mass production. The thread is reportedly has 10 times stronger than the next best CNT thread. The individual CNTs making up the thread are all less than a centimeter in length. Peking University has reported making individual CNT fiber of nearly 20 cm. As this was reported in 2009 and I have not heard much more about it they are not progressing quickly toward mass production of them. That said I think that the only thing in the way is the funding to mature the technology.

So what will an SE GEO do for transportation to Mars? Other that cutting the cost just to get too GEO the elevator cable can be its own counter weight. A payload released from the end of the cable would have enough velocity to reach the orbit of Mars. Once released the trip to Mars could take as little as 2 months. One hitch to that is that the ride up in the SE could take over 2 weeks.

The ground will be frozen only if there is water in it. As the weather on much of Mars does reach above the melting point of water from time to time the top several meters of regolith will be free of permafrost. Below that level all you will need is a parabolic mirror to heat up the regolith. It will not be a fast process but from experience here on Earth machines do not do any better digging through permafrost. Once the water content of the regolith reaches a certain point it will be harder than concrete.

Anyone who thinks that a electric vehicle would be better on rough terrain than a bike has not spent much time on a bike. As a kid would ride my one speed over all kinds of terrain and could carry it over any obstacle I could not ride across. When I road across the country between me, my gear and my bike I was over 250 lbs. The equivalent on Mars would be a vehicle with the mass of 1500 lbs. The Smart Car has only a slightly greater curb weight. Though I was active I was far from 'peak' physical condition when I began a trip of 4,000 miles. The people we send to Mars will likely be in much better shape than I was. A large portion of the world use human powered vehicles for transporting people and goods. People regularly ride over more difficult terrain then any motor vehicle can navigate.

I think a recumbent trike design would be prefered. The suits used on Mars will be much better than current designs but will likely still be be as restrictive as a wet suit. A trike would be much easier and comfortable to operate. A trike could be designed to carry substantial cargo and even passengers. A human powered vehicle does not require much more effort than walking. The driver of the trike could likely travel 50 miles in a day without a great deal of effort.

I do not think martian industry will be able to produce anything as complex as a Rolex for quite some time. What may be profitable is to license the recycling of the ships used to return other exports. The recycler would then sell the materials to various companies to produce certified 100% martian products. The products would be manufactured from material returned from Mars. The certification might even include materials that were manufactured on Earth to be used in constructing the martian cargo return vessels. This would provide a good deal more variety in the materials available for use in creating the products.

The problem with agricultural products is that they are less likely to be really unique and they tend to be low in value. A good bottle of wine is likely to cost $100 and I do not think that is anywhere near enough to make it worth shipping back to Earth.

Your plans also seemed to depend heavily on support from the academic community. I think you assume universities have a lot more disposable income then the actually do. As well as having limited funds schools are also unlikely to be good repeat customers. Once they have their kg of martian regolith the are likely to never buy another one. The one thing that could change this is proof that life is or was on Mars. If that is found the flood gate will open and funds for research on Mars will be all but unlimited (until life was found on Europe )

I do not think tourist of any kind will be a big factor in the martian economy until the round trip time is cut massively. The best case scenario for travel time with any technology that looks feasible is 2 months one way. I doubt that many people will want a vacation with that type of travel time.

Once space colonization is well established Mars will likely become the supply depot and ship yards for ventures in the asteroid belt and the outer solar system.

My main point is that the only sure source of income that I can think of that will meet the scale and consistency needed for a martian colony are unique luxury goods. The only things we are sure to find on Mars that meet these requirements are minerals and gems. Metals do not qualify because they are not unique.

I think bicycles may not be ideal for transportation on Mars but I can definitely see human powered vehicles dominating the landscape. With the exception of very heavy equipment. I road a bike from Vermont to California so I do know a bit about traveling by bike. It was a lot of fun but it had some hare limitation that 3 or 4 wheeled vehicles do not have. A trike designed for mars could actually have a pressurized compartment and still be fairly easy for the driver to power themselves. A human powered vehicle with the same mass as a motorcycle on Mars would accelerated slowly but once moving would require no more effort than a bike to keep it moving. Using human powered vehicles would also likely be a great help in combatting muscle and bone degeneration as it could be easy to get a good deal of physical activity as a normal part of daily life.

I think the best way to think of what Mars will export is to look back to the colonization of the new world. Most of the exports that fueled the colonies were items that could not be gotten from anyplace but the new world. Spain's gold rush was relatively short lived and did not create many long lasting colonies. No commodity that can be found on Earth will likely be worth shipping back to Earth. So what does Mars have that Earth does not, martian geology. Just like the new world the colonies will not be funded by mundane rare commodities but by unique luxury goods. Anything that could be fashioned into jewelry from martian 'rocks' will be worth orders of magnitude more than the identical item of terrestrial origin. Anything that has a unique make up and an appealing appearance will be worth shipping back to Earth. Martian granite and marble will be more valuable than platinum. It will be shipped back to Earth to floor the most exclusive hotels and the most expensive mansions.