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I'm saying, we *need* the slow rotation, if we want to actually terraform it.
I expect we're going to be able to solve the bone loss issues (if there even are any) long before terraforming Venus becomes feasible...
Re: needing slow rotation - sorry, this does not compute... Explain?
Re: bone-loss issues ..... Children born on Mars will not have bone-*loss* issues -- they will be born with bone density appropriate for that gravity and "upgrading" them to Earth levels shall be quite difficult!
StarDreamer wrote:Anywho, I doubt very much we could do anything to make conditions on Venus worse than they already are!
I've lived long enough to realize, no matter how bad things get, they can always get worse.
Moving a planet is too big. The mining industry today has shown how to move an entire mountain; it's done one truckload at a time. You don't move a mountain to the outskirts of a city, then mine there. You mine ore in place where it is, bringing the workforce to the mine site. Asteroid mining will be done the same; mine in place, don't move the asteroid. And Venus will be terraformed where it is. We can convert the atmosphere, but forget moving the planet.
Was someone suggesting we move the planet?
I think that ultimately Venus could be more rewarding than Mars. I believe our gravity well to be biologically important beyond the mere impediment it presents to lifting ourselves off Earth. Microgravity (Moon, Mars, Ceres, ISS), ionising radiation and the dearth of magnetic fields are bigger issues than atmosphere and chemistry. I say this because issues of element abundance and chemistry are easier to deal with on the scale of human colonies than systemic issues like gravity and cosmic rays, which require planetary scale solutions.
Anyone spending a long time on Mars probably cannot withstand a return to Earth, biologically. And any children born on Mars will never see Earth -- our gravity will crush their bones. It is a one-way trip. The gravity of Venus and its proximity to Earth allow for two-way traffic.It's too bad Earth is the largest terrestrial planet in our system -- if we had a 2x or 3x Earth mass planet here, it would be the obvious destination.
We can get established on Mars rapidly, but only lightly. Venus will ultimately have a higher capacity for our presence.
Anywho, I doubt very much we could do anything to make conditions on Venus worse than they already are! Lobbing iron-nickel meteors at Venus is about more than just its tilt, rotation or fields. Adding mass to the planetary core should crack the stagnant lid crust into plates and release heat. A sufficiently massive impactor should blow off some atmosphere, which is all to the good.
The limits of terrestrial resources and economics shall constrain the potentials of engineering and science for a long time to come. Getting to a place beyond that requires that we make use of the quick, the cheap and the dirty (like the good, the bad and the ugly....) in the here and now. Some of the prerequisites for human habitation at Venus need to take place before anyone sets up a colony and other stuff can wait until later. The quick and dirty modifications should be deployed first. Venus needs a magnetic field and some spin and perhaps a different ordering of its mass (too much atmosphere, too much crust -- a stagnant lid). It needs angular momentum.
The Q&D method would be to attach ion propulsion to certain NEO's and NVO's and clean up our neighbourhood (that's the political sales pitch) by lobbing them at Venus. I read the retrograde spin of Venus as meaning that it got hit hard enough to invert its poles -- like Uranus got hit hard enough to tip it over 90^ before its moons had formed and Earth got hit hard enough to tip it from 5^ (the plane of the lunar orbit) to 23^. Venus did a 180. Hitting Venus with an iron-nickel asteroid will NOT be pretty. We shouldnt do it unless we are prepared to chase down loose shrapnel which could threaten Earth. But if we could strike it near a pole with a steep but glancing blow, we could conceivably tilt it around again and give it some torque too. It would *add* heat in the short term, but also crack the stagnant lid and release heat and also lift some atmosphere into space. Adding mass to Venus should also add to its diameter and gravity. With a longer time horizon, we could also move some asteroid belt ice worlds towards Venus and import water -- same method of ion propulsion and patience.
I think over the last few years I have come round to the view that a lot of outside activities can be carried out by robots. We have some incredibly sophisticated robots on Earth now - the only prob. is that they are very expensive, but that isn't really an issue with a multi billion dollar Mars mission. I think we should restrict to outside activity in space suits for humans to a few days in high summer on Mars when they might be able to wear light mittens with their finger pads exposed...That would be nice, if they could tell us how Mars feels when the temperatures are up to double figures celsius.
Um, wouldnt their blood boil in their capillaries? I think human body temperature is incompatible with such an environment.
Atmospheric circulation is an interesting topic. I dont know who is studying comparative atmospherics across planets. But here is my take on it: the bands of clouds on the Jovian worlds and my knowledge of hadron convection cells on Earth (I think this is the correct term) suggests to me some mathematical relationship between atmospheric viscosity, rotation/tilt and climate zones. Earth has five zones: 2 frigid, 2 temperate and 1 tropical. The zones are kept separate by winds at the doldrums and horse latitudes known to sailors, where winds blow out in opposite directions and those caught in the gap must drift until they emerge from one side or the other. On Mars, I believe there are three zones -- 2 hyperfrigid and 1 frigid. Perhaps there are gradients there as well? But certainly threee zones -- it is a small planet and the atmosphere is thin. A thin atmosphere on a large planet would break into more zones. On the Jovian worlds, we see that the size of the planet overwhelms the viscosity of its atmospheric gasses and we get a great number of zones and gradients. Now consider Venus: on Venus, the viscosity of the atmosphere overwhelms the size and spin of the planet, so you get just one big zone, all hypertropical. The images I have seen of the cloud cover of Venus, showing mixing in the clouds, shows one pole-to-pole hadron cell at work there, with no bands.
I am certain it has been worked out that a cooler Venus with less mass in its atmosphere would gain spin naturally, much like a ice skater drawing in her arms to her body.
Maybe we could convert the atmosphere of Venus to margarine.
Margarine is just one molecule away from plastic....
Just kidding, but it's a fun thought ....
Robert;
That's too bad about NASA and Lockheed, but it sounds so typical. Nice guys finish last. Too bad the world is like that, but twas ever thus.
I've been to Winnipeg and as far north as Gimli and Hecla. Amazing that grapes will grow there!
I am hearing that Venus lacks phosphates, which are essential for DNA. So that's one thing your plan would need to import. I dont know if RNA would give us a leg up on that problem or not. One way of looking at the challenge is to say: the seeds of life are everywhere, but successful life is not. I am sure we will find evidence of early life on Mars, for ex, but it got only so far there and then failed (barring the discovery of extremophiles in the water layer of the Martian crust). Ditto for Mercury and Venus, Ceres and Europa and every other little world in our solar system. In the cold worlds, the seeds shall be there still, dormant, resting, awaiting a day of warmth and light to awaken them and give Life a try. So the challenge on Venus is to turn back the clock of life on Earth to the place where what we got here could survive there, figure out where evolution took the wrong turn, then give it a push in a new direction. So, yes, if you cant do chlorophyll or haemoglobin (which are similar at the molecular level -- blood uses iron instead of magnesium), then do retinal. But is there a substitute for phosphates in DNA? Can we even imagine one? What might work? The alternative is to source phosphate and import it to Venus, then hope Life can recycle that supply into future generations. I dont know if that's practical. Or we maintain a station in the clouds of Venus to breed our little organisms and release them generation after generation.
Mars at it's warmest point is above the melting point of water...
Sorry -- I was thinking of dry ice! CO2
It has been said that we here on Earth know more about outerspace than we know about the depths of our oceans or the interior of our own planet. The same shall be said someday about Venus if we can make colonies in the cloud decks. And I am okay with that. We do not need to know everything. We need know only enough.
It would be easier, with current tech, to mine an asteroid and lower its resources into the cloud decks of Venus than to go down to its surface to mine resources there and bring them back up.
Wikipedia says: "The Cererian surface is relatively warm. The maximum temperature with the Sun overhead was estimated from measurements to be 235 K (about −38 °C, −36 °F) on 5 May 1991."
I guess I am torn between terraforming Venus and leaving it as is. I would be in favour of terraforming if it could be done through natural biological processes such as you just described and within few enough decades to hold the attention of human brains (we have not evolved the kind of long-term planning that would permit us to focus on the centuries and millennia of our future -- some of us can, but most of us won't and I am willing to work with what we got in that dept as a species because the realm of politics is still at that evolutionary level). If it cannot be done simply, then leave it be. If it can be done simply (as you describe) but not quickly, then I would be in favour of launching the processes now and leaving it to future generations to handle the transition as Venus cools, as its rotation increases (with less atmosphere and less heat), as the cloud decks dissociate and mix, etc. If it cannot be done simply or quickly, then I say we can still live on the Venus we see today, if we change our thinking about what living ON the planet means. I do not propose anyone go to the surface. The surface equals Death, period. I propose floating single-family habitats manufactured on-site out of the simple compounds already present in the Venus atmosphere, including polymers etc. Some hard equipment would need to be imported, to be sure, plus some "potting soil". But plants growing in the floating greenhouses would make more soil and lock up carbon etc over time. Butterflies and quails and suchlike fauna could survive as well. Hopefully bees and then you have pollination. Maybe the colonists would be there to monitor the changes taking place in the atmosphere due to archaea activity. Maybe they would extract rocket fuels from the Venus atmosphere to lift up to an orbiting space station. Maybe lots of things. I like the idea of a society of free colonists, not trapped under a single dome, whose children could come and go from Earth (which the children of Mars could never do), etc etc. No private property or land ownership. No hoarding of resources. It loses all this potential of we terraform it.
This is an interesting discussion. If memory serves, Ceres is warmer now at its surface than Mars? I am trying to find the relevant posts in this thread, but it's a lot of reading. Can anyone point me to some?
Ok no one followed through on my idea for Venus. I talked about Venus here in these forums about 4yrs ago, with an idea similar to Void's. Imagine a double-walled greenhouse bubble on Venus. The polymer walls would admit light, but also filter light to reduce the harmful parts of the spectrum. The space between the two layers would be filled with water and let algae colonize the water. Inside the bubble, in the airspace part of the greenhouse, soil on the floor of the bubble with more complex plant growth. Equipment in the floor of the bubble to exchange gasses with the water and algae layer. The bubble would definitely not be spherical, but a flattened ovoid kind of bubble. Ok -- flying saucer shaped ... lol. Because of the winds on Venus, it might have a problem keeping This End Up. The algae wouldnt mind getting tossed about, but the soil layer and more complex plants inside might have a problem with that. If such a thing could be perfected, however, it would form the backbone of an agrarian economy on Venus for aerostat colonies of humans. The sky is free -- no such thing as territory or land ownership on Venus. A greenhouse able to sustain itself like a terrarium on Earth can be set free on Venus and just allowed to float. Humans who intercept them can check on them, service them, harvest them, set them free again, or hitch to them for a time. But they can be manufactured with carbon and other real simple elements and then just released.
On a lighter note .... what are the theories as to why the water would be more concentrated at the lunar poles? Did the ice comets just happen to crash there? Or did the lunar gravity pull them there? Or did a gaseous volatile meteor strike give the Moon a brief atmosphere and allow the water to gather at the poles and freeze out in a cap, like Mars?
On Mars, the very presence of water ice caps on the poles is prima facie evidence of the warmer wetter Mars of the past -- it had to be airborne as vapour and carried there by weather patterns away from a past temperate zone in order to freeze out on the caps.
Zubrin = "vested interest in keeping people away from Mars"?
I thought he was the Mars Direct guy ....?
Water on the Moon is probably best left ON the Moon, for use by scientists going there.
Water in passing asteroids has no higher benefit use, however -- fair game to harvest those and probably no more expensive, all things considered.
With luck, the volatiles will contribute to the spacecraft's own propulsion. An asteroid mine can be as dirty an industry as it pleases. The propulsion system should have the constitution of a barnyard goat or pig. Think of human landfill site energy sources. Generators that work on pig manure. That's the kind of engine a mining barge should use! Something that can get fuel out of anything we care to toss into it.
Interesting GW .. The technique may be to have a heated cargo bay -- just thaw it out like ground beef and wait for it to crumble, but be prepared for trapped volatiles as well....
My theory years ago was that most meteors, like the Tunguska event and the one this year in Russia, explode due to hitting the false bottom of our atmosphere. They come in at such a speed that the air column in front of them compresses to sufficient density to act like a semi-solid surface and dissociate the material. We underestimate the power of aerobraking at high velocity. I think prolly the ONLY meteors to ever hit the crust and make craters are the metal or solid rock kind.
It could also grow in airborne ponds on Venus.....
mmm -- Oort Cloud or Kuiper Belt? There is a considerable difference.
At the distance of the Oort Cloud, you'd have a tough time identifying your host star.....
At the mass of Terra, hydrogen from decomposing gasses like ammonia and methane wouldnt stay on the planet but escape to space, over the long haul, which means by the time humans discover the planet, we wont see what it was like before it went rogue, if you know what I mean. In the abyss of Time that its origins lie, we will not be so lucky as to catch it early and see it in transition, but only in its new equilibrium. Without the tidal action of Luna or the community of planets and our Sol to act upon it, the centre of this little world should freeze out and tectonic geology cease with it.
I like the idea of planets by plutoid accretion however. By Bode's Law, the plutoids are where Neptune should be and Neptune should not be where it is at all. Which makes me think that Neptune has grown and is still growing by accretion and it is gouging out the near edge of the Kuiper Belt the way a river scoops land from one bank and deposits it on the other, to make a bend, a valley bluff and a floodplain. As Neptune picks up KBO's, it gains mass; as it gains mass, its orbit shifts outwards; as its orbit migrates out, it gouges out more and more of the KBO and so grows ..... Eventually, it will have a 250yr orbit at 1:3 resonance with Uranus.
Well, my initial thought was, what would planets be like if they had the mass of Terra and were accreted from the Plutoids that exist out there? I suspect they wouldn't be merely scaled up versions of Pluto - with so much heat, the Methane, Ammonia and Nitrogen those worlds have would form a very significant atmosphere, maybe so much that it would be more akin to Neptune than Venus. I don't think helium would form a major component in such worlds, due to the scarcity at such distances - compare Saturn and Uranus as an example. Hydrogen might, however, given the amount of Methane and Ammonia that could decompose. Alas, it might be predominantly Hydrogen, which poses problems for our Aerostatic colonies. It all would depend I suppose on whether the Methane settles out. If it's more like a planet with a 10 kilobar atmosphere, and temperatures of a few hundred degrees at the surface... maybe we can rely on convection to keep the atmosphere well mixed, in which case we should be able to keep our colonies afloat, especially if the atmosphere is dominated by Nitrogen and Methane (which would give our warm colonies several kilogrammes of lift per cubic metre at least, much like on Titan). If we can get some Helium - and I wouldn't be surprised if there was at least a little bit - and use a 2 bar trimix atmosphere, with an exterior air density about 11 times that of our colonies atmosphere, we'd be able to lift 10kg for each cubic meter of the colony, and about as much using hydrogen at the exterior temperature. That's enough that a small bedroom could lift itself... certainly, there'd be no worries about getting enough lift. A sphere about 3m radius would be able to lift over a tonne. Going back to the previous example of our hectare of parkland, and we're lifting 50,000 tonnes - 5 tonnes per square meter, so we can use actual soil to a decent depth. At such lifting ability, we could have massive floating islands, with ships flying and fighting between them.
If we want extra lift, we could maybe use spheres placed at a lower depth and build on top. If we could get 50kg for each cubic meter in those spheres, we could support... a lot of floating island.
I was responding to GW's original contribution to this thread, and agreeing with it. Maybe you dont need to know the whole planet before we go there, but if you're going to drop 8 robots at the chosen landing site, well, How do you choose this landing site? From aerial photography alone or from previous exploration on the ground to get a sense of what resources are there already? And how is this exploration going to get done if we limit ourselves to 2 rovers per decade over the next 200 years ...............
I am arguing that if we really mean to send manned crew to Mars then, to make the best use of their limited time at the red planet, we need to plan for multiple landings at multiple sites, or distribute resources by robot all over the planet long in advance so that the crew can make a tour of all those previous sites in one go.
I think you have to consider what you can actually accomplish with 1-3 astronauts landed (hopefully not a one-way suicide mission) at one single site on Mars, and maybe just barely enough gear to go home. This matters little whether the return gear is prepositioned, locally produced, or carried with them.
Your not going to accomplish very much beyond flag-and-footprints and a couple of tow sacks of surface rocks. Even if you have a rover, the surface sampling will only be a few dozens of km apart. That's basically the same model as we used with Apollo going to the moon, and, in hindsight, that never really "explored" the moon.
It's been the probes since Apollo that did what "real exploration" we actually have accomplished (on the moon and on Mars). Exploration fundamentally answers two deceptively-simple but difficult questions: "what all is there?" and "where exactly is it?". A lot of the stuff we'd like to find is buried deep, sometimes very deep. And it is never, ever uniformly distributed.
I haven't seen in any of the Mars mission proposals, even Zubrin's, anything that addresses doing real exploration. Not in all these years since the "battlestar galactica" concepts first dreamed up in the 1950's.
But "real exploration" is exactly the prerequisite for siting bases, prospecting, and eventually establishing permanent settlements. You cannot utilize local resources effectively until you answer those two questions. And it is not easy to answer them. Some can be done by robots, some of it must be done with men. That's just life.
Mars is a lot farther away than the moon. For a robot, that's no problem, for humans it is. I have not seen since Skylab in the 70's a habitat spacious enough to support a mentally-healthy crew for the 2+ year round trip to Mars, with the kind of rockets we have.
It doesn't need to be that way. But, you have to give up the Apollo flag-and-footprints model, and you have to face up to the question of safely sending healthy people all that way, and getting them back alive. That is not done with a minimalist approach. It is constraint driven.
Back to "real exploration": it's a very long trip to Mars. If we're going to all the trouble of sending men there, then why not plan on more than one landing? Really do a proper sampling all around the planet. That's not a minimalist design, but it need not be "battlestar galactica" either.
And once you're past the 25 ton shuttle payload, anything you send can be assembled in LEO from docked payloads. It's the lowest cost per payload mass that counts. Falcon heavy is 53 tons at $800-1000 per pound. So who needs a gigantic launch rocket?
Just some things to think about.
GW
Ok -- fair enough!
Then this has highlighted yet another issue over the long haul: If we are talking about setting up shop permanently on other planets, what needs to be done to prolong the serviceable life of our missions and colonies. Something that barely lasts from one mission to the next is obviously a non-starter. I am guessing its not that we dont know how to prevent this kind of degradation, but the cost and the politics. Are we ready, now, technologically, to overcome the problem of material degradation in space?
As some comedian once said: if the black boxes in planes are indestructible, why cant they make the whole plane out of that stuff????
The real cause of finite life out of the ISS is related to "stardreamer's" cause #2: infrastructure degradation. The systems inside, and the structure of the thing, will wear out and cease to function. It is inevitable.
They have already had troubles with most of the life support systems inside, only repeated repairs and replacements keep it functional. The same will prove true of the solar PV panels outside. There's already been one repair.
Eventually, the shells of the modules themselves will degrade, as will the docking structures that hold them together. They were fragile enough to begin with, just to be light enough to fly at all. Only a low-thrust thing like some sort of plasma device would be feasible, to move a fragile thing like that to another orbit, and it would take years to accomplish such a move. Same for leaving LEO, just longer still (bigger delta-vee).
My bet is that it will be a race to see whether the life support gear inside, or the solar PV gear outside, will become unrepairable first. Once that happens, the station becomes uninhabitable and therefore useless, and also a falling-debris threat wherever it might be located. The projections for that outcome vary, from about 2020 to about 2030. But it will occur, and sooner than anybody wants.
I would not bet any money at all on it surviving to 2030. But that's just me.
Same thing was just beginning to happen to Mir, when it was deliberately crashed in the Pacific, just before ISS construction started. It wasn't quite finished deteriorating, but the Russians wanted to participate in ISS, and could not afford to participate in both.
GW