New Mars Forums

Is this the awkward moment where we are the dog who might have finally caught the car?

Is the solution to the transportation problem near enough at hand that we can start trying to figure what to do with the car?

What type social, economic, and political state do we wish to create, and what technical tools to we need to load up to make it happen?
If humanity even ready to have a branch of itself break off to inevitably complete with Earth and challenge what it means to be human?

We haven't even determined the biological nuts and bolts of sustaining the species off world.

Elon has identified the first step, finding water, and establishing a refueling capability to make the transportation system work. Some of this is going to be robotic, some manned. I think the value of unmanned scouting has been underestimated. The first BFR runs can deliver large numbers of robotic landers to drill for water, as well as delivering the much needed orbital infrastructure before committing the massive BFR landers on what is almost certain to be a one way trip to provide the vital tankage for the early refueling infrastructure.

The next step has to be establishing a primary base camp. At this point, such an operation probably more closely resembles a military expedition than an exploratory one. Sufficient power plants, habitats, greenhouses, and maintenance facilities have to be installed for perhaps a 150 personal. Secondary facilities can also be set up around the planet. I would imagine most of these structures would be prefab inflatables that are off loaded directly from landers.

Once they can maintain themselves, exploration can begin in earnest. Large scale sources of water and other industrial materials have to found and charted. Rudimentary transportation infrastructure needs to be established. Existing facilities need to be improved and fortified for the long haul. 

Once you have all the locally sourced materials you need, it's time to start building a city. Larger scale industrial equipment to exploit those materials can be delivered, likely with personnel dedicated to them, probably establishing base camps of there own isolated from the primary settlement. Transportation infrastructure will likely need to be improved to move large amounts of material. Local vehicles make need to be produced.

Once the material is moving, construction can begin in earnest. It doesn't have to be terribly large. Cities on worlds without a breathable atmosphere are going to need to be very different, largely pre-planned affairs with a limited carrying capacity. When that capacity is reached, you simply start over someplace else. I recommend a grid system, with common services and cultural structures in the center, surrounded by identical sized blocks going a kilometer or two in every direction. These blocks can either feature a single large parking garage like structure with common areas and lots of room for Rover Homes, or can be split into over a dozen individual lots supporting individual multilevel structures offering industrial, commercial, agricultural, and residential space for families. This overall square is then rounded off by agricultural and industrial areas, creating a circle. All of the structures are built airtight for contingencies.

This circle is covered by layers of concentric domes, utilizing monolithic dome technology. The first is a solid concrete, or whatever makes an effective shotcrete equivalent on Mars, dome designed to protect from radiation and meteorites. The ceiling can feature a geodesic framework with screens of the outside world if morale requires. The second is only about 4-5m above the first, and is also made of solid concrete. It features a vast microponic agriculture facility built on top of the first dome, with the heavy water tanks inhabiting the level floor. The ceiling here again features a geodesic framework, this time with growlights. The atmosphere is also tailored for agricultural purposes. Finally, the outer surface is cultivated as an open air park, covered by another geodesic framework, with whatever glass equivalent can withstand the environment and provide both needed protection and a good view. It make be advantageous to install the outer, clear dome first, pressurize and heat it, and then spray the interior domes. The whole thing is designed for maybe 50 to 75 thousand people.

As construction concludes, its time to be begin peopling it. That could take several launch windows. These would be the first real colonists, families whose breadwinner is recruited for their specialty skills that will make the population self-sufficient. They would claim one of the several thousand multilevel residences, with their work space in the ground level, commercial or design above that, and residence above that. This is the point where cargo stops coming and only colonist are delivered, because everything needed is produced locally. Several objectives are pursued concurrently. We need to start building a formal transportation infrastructure, a straight line, high speed, buried maglev system for both passengers and heavy cargo, extending from the capital in grid pattern from the Capital. New cities would be built at latitudinal and longitudinal intersections about every 5 degrees across the global south. If terraforming is to occur, there is no point in building anything too large in the lower altitudes. The large squares created by the cities and maglev system, where existing resources are not being exploited, are to be dedicated to "Marsteading", where families can claim land and do whatever it is that floats their boat. This is how you get the diversity of goods and services that are the hallmark of a free society. The construction of vehicle kits that enable families to strike out on their own, exploit the local materials, and build their Marsteads will employ many. Specialty settlements around core resources will continue to grow, and connect to the global transportation systems. Finally, a space elevator should possible, and would enable the interplanetary trade of luxury goods, and free up labor and water resources devoted to spacecraft ops to development.

From here, growth would continue, though colonization would probably not be limited to Mars.

Given the new data on the BFR, I now generally agree with the decision to nix the propulsive landings, as the BFR Upper/Shuttle (we need a better name for that...) nicely fills that role, at least for manned missions. On the off chance the ISS is still there by the time the BFR flies, it can fulfill all resupply and crew transfer needs. Many times over. A far more capable replacement station, even several of them, are viable with such a launcher.

I think the Red Dragon concept still has a role to play for unmanned missions. Sending an entire BFR Upper/Shuttle to find water is a needlessly expensive gamble when you can use several Red Dragons on a single launch. Duplicate the capsules heat shield, propulsion, and landing feet on the trunk segment, and mount a rover, drill, and whatever other permanent science you want/can fit in there. Build specimen lockers into the capsule itself, with an elevator/crane that rises out of the forward hatch. Launch 6-8 of them in the bay of a Cargo BFR/Upper on that first operational launch window to shake out the system in a interplanetary transit, releasing the Red Dragons on close approach, and covering many more sites.

The Dragons would land, deploy their rovers and drills and collect their samples. The BFR/Upper would aerobrake into orbit, hopefully saving enough fuel to return to Earth. Samples would be loaded via crane through the hatch, and installed to lockers for storage. This can probably be done within a month, on a short stay plan. Once the rovers are clear, the capsules would fire their Dracos into orbit to dock in the bay of the BFR/Upper. The trunks and rovers on the ground would remain and continue observations. The BFR/Upper would fire its engines and return to Earth, probably aerobraking initially for want of landing fuel. If it really needs to land at this point, it could be refueled. In any event the Dragon capsules can be dropped for splashdown, returning a wealth of samples. Based on these results, on the next window, your full BFR landers can make their runs on the most promising targets. Further cargo and manned flights would go on the third window. In the meantime, the first round of hardware could continue making Dragon runs gradually covering more and more sites.

Such a pattern could be repeated on other terrestrial bodies. The only limit is return fuel. I think your ultimately going to see boosters modified and taken all the way to orbit and used as extra propulsion stages. Once there, they too could be refueled and used as tugs, leaving as much on board fuel for operations in theater, and for the return trip, as possible.

As for the Gateway, the BFR will easily loft an Olympus inflatable module to... where ever you'd like.

But since we can land, offload, and lift off with out using precious lunar fluids, I'm not sure if it is relevant anymore.

I was looking at the numbers for the Suborbital Airline business, and I’m not sure that it's all that crazy.

Last year he cited a fuel cost of $168/ton. Assuming the booster scales at 75% of last years number of 6700 tons propellant to 5025 tons, and using this years number of 1100 ton for the Spaceliner, that’s a total of 6125 tons, for a cost of about a $1.03m of fuel per launch.

For the space frames, last years cost of the booster was quoted at $230m, and the Spaceliner $200m. I consider that number reasonable this year, despite the fact that the stack is 75% of the size, because space. I would imagine that an Earthbound Spaceliner could be considerably cheaper though, simply because you don’t need all the Mars related stuff.

If you can fit 100 people on that Shuttle for a 3 month trip to Mars, you can fit at least 300 people on it with just the seats needed for a suborbital hop.

Maintenance costs per flight on the booster where estimated last year to be $200k per flight average, and the booster was rated for for a 1000 flights. Maintanance on the Shuttlecraft, designed for a 2+ year round trip to Mars, was estimated at $10m per trip. My guess is that an Spaceliner model would match the booster at $200k per flight average for 1000 flights, again, because it's not going to Mars.

So, for the stack, we can assume a maintenance cost of $500k/flight ($250k for the booster and $250k for the Liner). Include another $500m for the construction of the stack (a new 747-8 goes for around $400m), divided by a 1000 flights, for a construction cost of $500k per flight, and fuel cost of $1m per flight, your break even cost per seat is...

$500k Build Cost + $500k Maintenance + $1m Fuel = $2m/300 seats = $6666.67 per seat. One way. Google tells me that an average round trip on a Concorde cost $12k a seat.

Noted, that this doesn’t include the cost of your offshore launch facilities. The average cost of an off shore oil rig is over $500m. That cost per flight is negligible. Same for the ship getting you there.

There isn’t a whole lot of details of that fuel cost number. Depending on how it is produced that number could change. If produced on site, with nuclear power, everything you need, except the Thorium, is right there. It could be considerably cheaper.

Also, Elon stated that the Shuttlecraft has a volume equal to that of an A380, which regularly flies with over 500 passengers, and is rated for 800. People won’t need a lot of room over that time span, and at those G-forces. With 800 people, the price drops to $2500 one way.

I think the biggest issues here is finding enough international passengers that really need to go that fast.

Is it not a Big Fabulous Rocket?

Third times the charm.

He's not done with "reflight"...

Late Summer launch of Spacex Falcon Heavy could land all three first stage boosters, second stage and payload faring

The faring recovery effort was news to me. And I thought that the 2nd stage recovery was largely forgotten. It's nice to see that it is still an objective, even though it will probably take a lot more work to make it happen.

Elon is not content to win the Space Race, he is twisting the knife.

A) The use of lunar materials to produce future spacecraft will dramatically reduce the cost of said spacecraft.

B) The water needed to support the population needed to exploit those resources is limited and located in just a few strategic locations. The first to claim them holds the ultimate high ground into perpetuity.

A Dragon 2 uses but a fraction of the Falcon Heavy's capacity, could the 2nd stage not handle the ED burn?

I'd like to think that gold on Mars will for once be appreciated for what it is, an excellent electrical conductor.

Reports seem to indicate a pad issue, and not a vehicle issue. Other than the vehicle and payload where lost. No injuries, but there is significant damage to the pad.

If vehicle issues can be ruled out, then in theory they could shift the launch schedule to 39A without a huge delay.

Yeah, I think developing interstellar drives that make such journeys manageable well within a human life span is probably more realistic than reverse engineering the human reproductive track and development. If there is one thing that is incompatible is Boolean logic, it's a young human child. That sounds like a recipe to spread Reavers across the verse.