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#1 Re: Human missions » Nasa Shuttle, ISS Woes & To-Mars » 2005-11-18 11:56:37

RobertDyck you are right about many things, if only GCNR knew 1/10 as much about politics/relations as rockets. But he does know space, extremely well,  and ISS *is* a relative waste of upwards of $100B that could be spent better otherwise, and reallocating even a fraction of that money could accelerate by years more important programs: CEV, SDV, or almost anything would be better. For example instead of your 3 SDV/shuttle combo-launches, 3 SDV launches (or even 2 or 1!) could put up a *whole new* station comparable to ISS! Little or no idiotic construction, no risked shuttle astronaut lives, far less costly, and it wouldn't be "out of warranty" by first use..

The international partners could forgive the US for bailing, and can still use the "half station," and should take part in the return to moon/mars...and perhaps a sensible station as well, if that ever seems necessary and worthwhile.

I'd rather see ISS retired than shuttle (like thats gonna happen) -ISS is a huge waste, a flying junkpile, and a bottomless money sinkhole, and will do almost nothing especially if the centrifuge module never goes up. But Griffin is pretty sharp and things are looking better and better.

#2 Re: Human missions » The reason to go to mars - Going to mars is not a waste of money » 2005-05-11 19:47:21

Everyone here at the Mars Society Forums doesn't care one bit about science or even about a human mission to mars.  Your main goal is human settlement outside of the earth regardless of the place.  The moon?  Asteroids?  Martin even wants to develop the outer planets.  You even fight Mars Direct because it doesn't take enough people to mars soon enough even though Zubrin's plans detail constant mars landings.  And his plan was the most aggressive plan to get there ever.  Fighting it is shooting down your own aggressive space plans.

These settlement ideas are a complete disregard for the technology and science we still need in order to do these things more successfully.  We don't even know if we can grow food on mars and you want a base with hundreds of people?  That's not the smart way to do things. 

You are all trying to convince me that this is an urgent priority, that we need to settle space now but the one question you haven't been able to answer is-why?  To help mankind?  NASA's robots can do it all with less cost and without risk to human life.  The giant earth destroying asteroid-just isn't a credible argument.  Platinum?  Maybe but we only need a very small base for that.  The reasons just dont stand up to scrutiny so why do you all want human settlement of space? 

If we try to settle space it's not going to be like Star Trek, it's going to be like the ISS.  If we build a moon base it's going to be like living in a single wide mobile home, only you can't go outside unless you are in a pressure suit.  If we settle mars it's going to be like living in a double wide mobile home.  This is the level of our technology. 
You say everything at the bases will be fine, no worries, nothing will ever break, no funny smells, the plants will always thrive, plenty of food and air and water for everyone.  Sounds like a paradise. 

The earth is the real paradise, space is a huge wasteland full of radiation and temperatures extremes, the moon is a dull grey lifeless blob, mars is a cold empty Sahara, and asteroids are rocks.  You think moving humans out to these things to permanently live is in any way a good thing?

Dook, lots of us care about science and Zubrin! You are single handedly fighting off a lot of hostiles -but don't let them get you down. Keep up the good fight.

To those who think about massive futuristic space corporations, fine and well, but these are VERY long term ideas. We should be focusing on the next decade or two. -- there has to be a first landing before we can think of building up to get big industries or colonization out there -- if we don't start with something doable, then we will never start at all and there will never be sci-fi megacorps or colonization. A long view is a good thing but not if it destroys the chance to get started at all.

#3 Re: Human missions » Some Corrective Lenses II - ...hmmm, another corrupt thread » 2005-05-08 12:46:43

The moon IS NOT a logical step to mars!  If you want to go from Los Angeles to New York you don't drive down to San Diego first!  It's the same thing.

The Presidents plan is NOT a reasonable progressive course.  If you want to buy a new vehicle do you go back to riding a bicycle to get ready for it? 

Moon infrastructure means we will NEVER go to mars!  We can't do both and we don't even need moon infrastructure if mars can't be terraformed so the logical step is to go to mars and find out!

I see 30 years wasted to build moon infrastructure that requires constant missions to keep it supplied with food, oxygen, and repair parts that we can never go to mars...  "

Logisticly? About actually pushing a Mars ship to the Moon? No, no the Moon doesn't make much sense... but one thing the Moon IS good for is learning: learning to build and use bigger spacecraft that must not fail all over again, learn to develop equipment that works, and learn to develop methods that work best... And some technology can be directly adapted too: Methane rocket engines, new super-suits, nuclear reactors, LSS systems, and so on and so forth... However, if we rush off to Mars right now, I think that we will have difficulty pulling it off, and may not cost much more in the long run.

So why exactly isn't VSE reasonable or progressive?

Why does building Lunar infrastructure preclude going to Mars? We very well can do both without a radical funding increase, we just can't do both at the same time. And, since Earthly Platinum is running out, and we have no Helium-3, and the Moon is a great place for telescopes... setting up a small-time base on the Moon is a good idea Mars or not.

By "build Lunar infrastructure" I am not talking a self-sufficent town for a 100+ people, I am talking about a minimal perminant surface HAB that can make its own fuel (or at least LOX), limited bulk metal refining/regolith processing/light construction capability, and possibly a heavy-duty nuke. Thats it. Plus, a reuseable lander/TLI/TEI medium rocket ferry.

Once the construction and development of these things are complete, then the only thing you would need to tend such a base is the occasional load of supplies (say, three or four times a year, Atlas-V sized) and 2-3 crews per year. Thats it, the base would otherwise not cost any more money for the government to operate, only about $1.5Bn ($2.0Bn w/o Lunar H2) anually, and half that if private enterprise helps out ... which NASA can afford AND pay for Mars simultainiously.

Feeling a bit like a minnow among sharks, I chime in to this exhilarating thread

GNCRevenger, would you be for MD if the mass margins were increased (say by Mars SemiDirect, or otherwise) to be more like DRM?

Dook, I think a stop at the moon before going on to mars (the real objective) could be a good idea -- so long as we don't go overboard there. Little infrastructure. No permanent base (money sinkhole, huge delay to mars). But if we achieve a genuinely capable exploration system (shuttle-stack derived MD, DRM etc) shouldn't we at least try them out on the conveniently placed Moon, and do some geology and astronomy while we're there? As well as testing our mars hardware and training astrounauts of course. I too would hate to see decades lost at the moon, but it might be worth a year or three...

As for lunar ISRU, regolith mining etc, sounds like a BIIIG distraction IMHO...but how heavy would the ISRU/mining stuff (and supporting power system etc) be? Tons, tens of tons? What if nasa, instead of making this core stuff, had a competition for private industry to make demonstrator ISRU units at the lightest possible weights. If it were just a few tons there would be no problem including it and seeing if GNCR's scenario is feasible (and perhaps even worthwhile)..And if there is money to be made in lunar mining the private industry can then go ahead and make some, while nasa continues to explore..

The key to having mars and the moon simultaneously is likely shared hardware. Shared booster of course, and the large/main habs and landers be of the same diameter (27' say) and made on the same basic factory design. Launch capacity could then be divided as desired, say 75% to mars, yet maintain a significant lunar presence too.

Just a noob's two cents worth. roll

#4 Re: Human missions » Some Corrective Lenses II - ...hmmm, another corrupt thread » 2005-05-04 18:05:23

Have you seen http://aviationnow.ecnext.com/free-scri … 05045]this, GCNRevenger?

"As NASA administrator today, I already own a heavy lifter," Griffin said. "Every time I launch, I launch more than 100 metric tons into low orbit, which of course is what you need for returning to the moon. ... I will not give that up lightly, and in fact, can't responsibly do so, because it seems to me that any other solution for getting 100 metric tons to orbit is going to be more expensive that utilizing efficiently what we, NASA, already own."

:up: YAY! Best news in a long time! Made my day. So much better than that O'Keefe dolt. Thanks so much for posting that Bwhite.  Go MD, boo QQ!

#5 Re: Human missions » If we start a crash program today.... - Earth to Mars timeframe? » 2002-05-14 10:04:18

Crash program today: We could be there by 2016, no problem. Nasa can afford 20-50 billion over this period, no prob, 15 % of budget. Probly could get a budget increase from Congress with wide support, too. Just takes the will, the call. I believe the support is there.

We need a booster, we need the in-situ fuel experiment done ASAP and smart lander technology, preferably a sample return or two (2011-2020 timeframe is not acceptable! ) Maybe an extra mission for all these silly new "safety" requirements above...reminds me more than a little of Zubrin's First Landing requiring of interminable unprovable proof of safety... Unmanned landers can test the technologies and the very shapes of the manned designs, even being scale models while doing their thing. There's no need to wait 20 years for 2 samples to come back! Start sooner! Launch 2 of them in 07 say, and have the manned designs somewhat finalized when the samples come back, instead of waiting to get the samples before starting. Duh! 1 or 2 heavier more capable robotic landers may be able to do the jobs of a fleet of the flyweight proposals -many of which seem hardly necessary - shaving many years off the forever stretching schedule.


Give the transfer vehicles some kind of artificial gravity and the in-space health concerns shrink drastically. (i prefer a "Mission to Mars "Cheesewheel" to Zubrin's mile-long scary tether, but smaller, 27' diam oughta do it) I'm not a rocket scientist but i have my share of human-mars vehicle doodles..and i read First Landing a few weeks ago..didn't know it was this cheap, had still been thinking 100 B! (the ISS may cost 100B! only 1/3 of that can get us to Mars!! ) (Russians have said as little as 10B but i shudder to think what that would be like) I've heard they also have better recyclers, so get them to make a big contribution and give them a seat on Mars 1. Whatever. Just do it.

If the US won't do it, get the Russians to! Excellent rockets (Saturn 5 RIP). Or ESA. Then Bush will be happy to throw not 40 Billion but several hundred billion at it.

Have decent money management, no cash-cow or make-work projects, bloating, or just throwing $ away. Farm the work out to private industry where it makes sense to do so. Make the larger vehicles at least reasonably modular for upgradability. And finally don't let's achieve the astonishing and then throw it all away like Apollo..

I doubt there's anything at Cydonia.

Moon or Mars: Mars. Any Mars infrastructure will obviously be moon capable, thrown in "for free." Mars hardware might be flight tested on Luna, wouldn't take long.

Maybe once the mice have flown, the Mars Soc could help accelerate the in-situ fuel filter experiment. Esa or japan might love to steal the US's glory by half a decade and could restart a space race. Can you say "wake up call"?

Sure, finish up the bloated ISS first -- and don't cut out the centrifuge. Begin planning now, fiscal year 03. Arrange the unmanned landers with reasonable common sense and alacrity. Then in 06 or so (when ISS down payment is final) make it official: humans to mars within a decade. we can do it. We know more about mars now than we did about the moon in 69, and technology has advanced significantly.

I know all these rantings may not be right on, but Mars is doable. Love that Zubrin.

Jay

ps anybody know if there are *interior* diagrams available for the vehicles in First Landing or the Mars Reference Mission? I'd love to se how lame mine are be comparison

#6 Re: Human missions » Oxygen Supplies - Oxygen Usage » 2002-04-29 04:05:33

For a real good read about oxygen and resources on mars, try Zubrin's "First Landing." Just finished it, makes me want to see people go to mars asap

--in the book instead of bringing large amounts of oxygen, water and fuel, they bring some hydrogen. A fuel maker is sent out unmanned and in a year collects enough oxygen from the co2 atmosphere to launch a large earth return vehicle. They also actually mine the regolith and microwave it to extract trace water (wow) then in a dire fix, they go prospecting for water with a drill. It's great.

What i'd reallly like to see is the "in situ" fuel experiment actually done on Mars, collecting o2 from the co2 atmosphere to maufacture water and rocket fuel -- in my opinion probably the biggest piece of the puzzle for going to mars soon and for a reasonable price. At the current rate NASA may take another decade. Maybe after the mice fly, the Mars Society should push for this mission. Zubrin for President!

Jay

#7 Re: Human missions » Future of Space Shuttles - How could the Space Shuttles be used? » 2002-04-04 13:51:38

I had a similar thought years ago: that one of the shuttles could be retired as a part of the ISS, with a nice big lab in the back. a 4 billion dollar vehicle to replace 10 or 20 Billion worth of ISS...

I also seem to recall NASA considered a "space taxi" for use in earth orbit, as a moon taxi, could go to the Lagrange points, etc. It could be either a x38 ISS escape vehicle with a fuel pod and service module mounted aft, or a capsule design. I think this would be more sensible than refitting a shuttle. Maybe.

Somebody tell NASA to get on with the nexgen RLV and manned missions to mars. And if they GOTTA build the ISS, DON"T CUT THE CENTRIFUGE AND TRANSHAB!

The Mars Society rules. Put those mice up there!

#8 Re: Human missions » GENERATION SHIP ..... MUST READ - Why hasn't one been built yet? » 2002-04-04 13:35:17

I think one show-stopper for the idea of a generational ship, at least a colony ship to another earthlike planet, is this: decades later, a faster ship could be built. Picture it, a colony ship goes out, eta 500 years. but 50 years after the first leaves, a ship that can do the trip in 300 years goes, passes them, and the first ship arrives only to find their world already colonized! Maybe the second ship also finds an even faster ship beat them to the punch. you get the picture.

I'd think any generational ship, even one that hung around the solar system would be ENORMOUS and the cost would dwarf that of the ISS. They'd also have to develop space-mining technology (probably pretty easy) and refining and manufacturing (probably pretty involved).

my 2 cents,
Jay

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