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Could passing magnetic fields next to a molten puddle of ore help to aid in seperation of the metals? Also the deeper the vat is that contains them is the chances are the lighter metal will go to the top and the heavier one will sink if left heated.
Anyone a metallurgy expert around here?
Rob S seems to know what he's talking about in that field, so maybe he can answer that(?).
Regarding platinum on Earth, we do not have proof that terrestrial sources are derived from impacts. It is true they are found around impacts, but the platinum itself is in deposits that formed other ways. If you Google "platinum ore" and related terms, you will see that terrestrial ore geologists do not assume the platinum came from the impacts themselves. Igneous processes appear to be involved and they often assume the platinum came up from the Earth's lower crust and mantle, just as gold does.
Regarding platinum on the moon, we can be sure it is there because the crust of the moon is full of asteroid impacts. Several percent of all asteroidal/meteoroidal impacts are of the nickel-iron variety. Ordinary nickel-iron meteorites are something like one part in 30,000 platinum-group metals. In other words, 1 tonne of nickel-iron has 33 grams (a bit more than an ounce) of platinum-group metals. The concentrations are LOW. But that's still several times higher than the terrestrial ore we are mining now, and there are relatively rare high-nickel meteoroids that are closer to 1 part in 3,000 PGMs.
Obviously, we don't spot platinum on the moon via remote sensing. Even if we had a bare nickel-iron surface I doubt the concentration is high enough to be detectable from orbit. But if a large mass of nickel-iron is exposed on the lunar surface (probably by a later impact) we might detect the nickel-iron. Nickel-iron probably produces magnetic anomalies detectable from lunar orbit. No search for them have yet been attempted.
Most likely PGM recovery on the moon will require field geologists and drilling. Robots and remote sensing techniques probably can't assure us well enough about the extent of the deposits. On the other hand, lunar fines are several percent nickel-iron, and the latter separates from the former easily via magnetism. So a big, dumb regolith sifter could probably recover nickel-iron particles pretty easily, and they could be refined to extract the PGMs.
I asked Dennis Wingo by email how he thought PGMs would be recovered and he said a solar thermal furnace could melt the different elements at different temperatures and thus separate them. I replied no, nickel-iron is a solid-solution; an alloy. If you heat it up, the nickel and iron won't separate via melting, they'll just melt together as a mixture at an intermediate temperature. So that aspect of his book needs further thought, I believe.
The carbonyl process will separate the different elements, but it suffers a major problem on the moon: any chemical process uses up small quantities of the materials it needs. Recycling is never 100% efficient. If it is 99.99% efficient, 1 tonne of carbon can be used 10,000 times to separate out about 10,000 tonnes of nickel-iron; but that still only gives you a third of a tonne of PGMs, unless you find the really high-quality deposits. Unless we find carbon on the moon, it will have to be imported from Earth (or later from Phobos or Mars) and that will be a major cost for PGM extraction on the moon.
One possible solution: one rich source of PGMs are chondrite-enstatite meteorites. If one of them hit the moon, I suppose the "chondrite" part of the name implies it will also have carbon! Maybe it won't have much, but it doesn't need to have much. If 10,000 tonnes of chondrite-enstatite has 1 tonne of PGMs, it will probably have 100 tonnes of carbon (asuming 1% by mass carbon). It may even have a similar amount of water in it, which would be worth recovering because the PGMs are partially covering the processing costs.
Regarding lunar water: We know from the radar data that sheets of ice do not exist (similar radar reflections off Mercury indicate the Mercury poles DO have ice sheets, so the technique works). We know from Clementine that hydrogen representing the equivalent of a few percent of water disseminated in the upper meter of the lunar regolith exists in the polar areas. These two data are hardly contradictory. They most likely tell us that the polar regions are lightly frosted. We should have this confirmed in the next few years. It is not clear how much it will cost to build equipment to process VERY cold lunar regolith that is 1-2% water by content. Michael Duke at Colorado School of Mines feels it can be recovered cheaply enough to be used to fuel vehicles, at least from L1.
-- RobS
All very well presented and factual Rob. I've been waiting for someone to point out several things you included - thankfully you did so.
I seem to remember an paper about using GRS for detecting metals from low orbit, but I may be thinking of something else. I'll concede that as I just found it - and it is something else upon examination.
I would have to say, I can now see valid reasons of going to the Moon first, for commerical and exploration purposes - excluding the problem of carbon for carbonyl process extraction - and the possibility water might not exist as extensively as needed.
Those are two problems that could be easily solved - although what I'm personally thinking about would take longer while being (perhaps) cheaper than supplying from Earth-side sources.
It is also quite easy to see (now that a reasoned presentation has been made) how it could be used for furthering exploration initiatives, although I'm still of the opinion that assuming much on the basis of asteroid impacts (that enough of them were Ni-Fe) is risky. But so is a trip to Mars, and "x" amount of money is less valuable than lives lost (or more of "x" amount of money spent and lives lost).
However, Pt has a high vaporisation point, and excluding some global primoridial deposits of S on the surface of the Moon from it's formation, it is indeed reasonable to expect it to be there (despite not one bit of evidence that it is, which is my main problem, as it should have shown up at least in one sample in the PPM range).
But again, I've seen the reasoning behind going to the Moon first, and I understand it's validity.
Assuming everything required is available that the Moon is suspected to hold in promise - which sadly as you noted - will likely require we spend the money to send people there to find out.
Nonsense, the rocks that fell on the Moon are the same ones you intend to go and try and mine in zero-G. Some of them will certainly contain useful amounts of Platinum, we just haven't found them yet. It could very well require human prospectors to go there and find it, as it probobly be buried under the dust so simple robots could not find it.
I assert that mining in zero-gravity is inherintly impractical, because the process of mining is made essentially impossible by the fact that doing any serious work without gravity is too difficult. You can't dig, you can't build, and you can't process raw ores.
As I'm about to say later, guessing is fine until it costs us several billion to be perhaps wrong.
And that's your assertion, which is based on the ISS and/or MIR (our only two examples of zero-G construction, since we have none in the fields of mining or processing).
The closeness of the Moon (6MT capsule versus 20MT transit vehicle, shorter stays), the accessability of Lunar oxygen (perhaps H2 as well), and the general ease of operations there outweighs the drawbacks of escaping the Moon's gravity to get back to Earth.
That is true.
No it wouldn't. We are talking about single-digit percentages of the metal locked up with other elements hidden under a shallow layer of dust... and as far as a mass spectrometer goes, getting a proper signal from a metal is not that easy, there may be Pt there and you'd never see it.
I concede that point, but in another post, as it well explained - which is what I was hoping for.
*Snorts* Please, I am quite tired of "but you wern't THERE" arguments feigning to defend Zubrin's hairbrained scheme from rational critique... Any reasonably intelligent person with access to his proposed plan and the actual requirements, hardware, and real-world engineering margins for such a challenging endeavour could tell you his plan is highly questionable or downright foolhardy.
I can tell it has problems - as I've said before repeatedly. I'm not defending anything - as I've said before repeatedly. I'm asking for a general consensus based on scientific and rational criteria for doing this vs. that, via this method vs. another. I'm not even suggesting MD as the de facto way to go to Mars.
As an example of what I said before: "Basically, Zubrin’s “hockey puck” cruise/decent vehicle and an CEV (as an ERV) would do the trick – even though both the CDV and ERV may be untenable as Zubrin designed them initially..."
Just a small reminder of the purpose of this topic: Because the people who pay the bills deserve a chance to have a say. Any valid and workable plan should be put on the table - not just the planning done by NASA "engineers" or the aerospace industries. Others can maintain this is folly, that the President (as Commander in Chief) or VP (who overseas it marginally) runs NASA - the civilian space agency - not Congress or the people of the U.S. (who really run the show and pay the bills, respectively).
I also purposely don't look at other people's opinions of Zubrin's plan (or any plan based on it) because I'm not sure of their agenda - until I know what they're background is. I've seen for and against, all well reasoned, all contradictory. Zubrin p.o.'d alot of people, including me initially, but that doesn't make him right or wrong. Any opinions as to his state of thought are sure signs of complete prejudice.
Now, as I also said before, if there is a better plan bring it forth. The only thing I'm stressing is timing - not architecture. If there is better architecture - rationale it's use. Don't give me or anyone else this "it's better because I said so" mantra. Some of the things you've said make sense, but I for one wanted to see the reasoning behind those things.
Griffin may be willing to hear it, and he may be the man to convince Congress to consider it. And that is to the benefit of the space program, not necessarily me, certainly not Zubrin. If it involves risking several billions dollars on assumptions about this or that - then someone should have more than assumptions to make it worthwhile.
I'm for one tired of you falling back on this "but you weren't there" thing personally. I don't know what the heck your referring to - as I've not been to Mars, nor have I have been in a MD vehicle! If you mean C.F.M, big deal - alot has changed since then - considering IV was about 15 years ago or more, and doesn't apply anymore. If you mean something else - whatever.
However, if you cannot provide an analysis from an independent source or justify your opinion (after I've repeatedly asked you to - quite kindly I might add), then say so. I'm not trying to prove you wrong - but I expected your vitriol was for some reason and I was interested to see that reason - either several papers you studied, some analysis you'd done, somesuch. Baring that, your opinion stands for squat - regarding me or anyone/thing else for that matter.
For all the space elevator buffs out there, a PowerPoint presentation by Brad Edwards (via SER/SpaceRef):
http://www.spaceelevator.com/docs/Gener … tation.ppt
I haven't had time to look at it yet, but I'm sure it's unique if not interesting.
And if you don't have PowerPoint, you can use the PowerPoint Viewer from Microsquish (err, Microsoft):
NASA is driven by exploration, science, and discovery, not economics! NASA is not and should not become a business. Sure I would want more and cheaper platinum supplies but not at the expense of NASA's entire budget forever.
Here's a concession:
How difficult would it be to adapt the NASA DRM to include a test of some of the landers/ERV on the moon? In fact, I think I will start a new thread with just that subject.
Well Dook, shouldn't NASA be like the old NRB of the 1860's - laying the foundation of the railroad system (even building early settlements along it) - then handing that over to private business to develop further, creating new opportunities along the way?
I wouldn't advocate NASA being economically driven either, but NASA's focus should include the economic benefits of any exploration plan.
On the concession - good idea!
First GCN, thanks for noticing the thread was busted and starting again.
Ok, now to Platinum. I'll guess my post mentioning this was missing some bits (if not just missing), so:
There are no significant sources of plantinum on the Moon - excepting perhaps surviving in asteroidal material. Neither the Apollo nor Luna samples had detectable amounts of platinum. So, what I was saying (before it disappeared) is, other than Al, Si, O; H2O, Fe, and Ti (in some spots); and He3 - what does the moon offer?
By the way, I have not seen the Clementine data - I have it - just not looked at it yet (and reading it would be an adventure). Is there evidence for significant amounts of Pt there?
Ti alone I can see a use for, but it's still rather readily available here.
Your correct, Nuclear engines aren't new tech. They've just never been used in space - just the usual test runs of the 60's (I know there have been later tests, I just don't have the material handy). There are probably going to be tests upon tests to man-rate them, and that's (probably) going to cause massive delays.
MD will do one thing well, it will get us there. Yes, up to a point it becomes useless - and by that time I would expect that we have a better space infrastructure (LEO, or if necessary, LLO direct to Mars). But I see reasons to maintain that MD can serve us well for at least 10 missions (or 20 years) if not longer, making it not only cheap enough to go to Mars, but making it more likely to happen.
Actually GCN, two things that would remove my objection (that I may have missed?) is this: what is the total cost projection of the DRM? Nothing lunar or support - just the DRM.
And would it be usuable by 2021 and no later?
When you say "signifigant" you sound like you are talking about "lets make ocean liners out of solid Platinum" kind of quantities... we neither could nor would ever need such large quantities. I am talking about a few hundred kilos would be worthwhile amounts, as it would only take a few grams to make a fuel cell, you could make thousands with one small load of the metal.
Platinum is going to be fairly rare no matter where it is, since it is a difficult element for stellar nuclear fusion to produce in the first place. There is virtually zero anywhere on Earth or the Moon's surface naturally, and the only practical mines on Earth are near old meteor impact sites. We have come to recognize that Pt is virtually always in combination with other base metals, which make up many asteroids. Asteroids of signifigant size are responsable for the craters on the Moon, so it stands to reason that there is Platinum likly there.
The Apollo missions did not go and visit any of the major impact sites, so they obviously wouldn't find much. Celemintine was a pretty primitive and low-resolution instrument, so it probobly couldn't see any trace amounts of Platinum buried under Lunar dust in highly localized locations. Its no wonder at all that neither mission detected Platinum.
"MD will do one thing well, it will get us there."
No it doesn't. MarsDirect is too light, and won't work safely even if you gut the entire science package. And what good does it do to just get there? If thats all it can do, then its worthless, and is just very much a "Martian Apollo." We'll leave as quick as we came, and it will be all over for another decade or two (or longer). MarsDirect won't work, and even if it did, it would be a waste of time and money... I assert that it would cost less to adapt an exsisting system, like DRM, to be a reuseable crew ferry and heavy (50MT) cargo hauler then it would be to start over after MarsDirect is done including the savings you get from MD versus DRM...
There is also the science-per-dollar concern, that DRM will be able to do much more with its far heavier payloads, six-man crew, and future reuseability upgrade path. Imparticular, DRM will have enough payload mass and dimensions to bring along a multi-meter drill, which MD probobly won't, which I think is absolutely nessesarry if we are going to be serious about hunting for (underground) life and water.
MarsDirect is a bad investment... As far as how much DRM costs, NASA pegs the current iteration at around $50Bn, which includes development for a capsule like CEV, a new nuclear reactor like JIMO's, and a Methane rocket like VSE Lunar lander/TEI would need.
This one is not just in answer to GCN, but BWhite's recent post as well, just in case GCN wonders what the heck I'm talking about referencing other posts. :;):
First of all, I've never maintained any significant amount of anything other than Si, Al, Fe, and O. You mentioned this in relation to Pt:
Private companies will (or should) be able to buy the same systems or flights of a system from aerospace contractors as NASA does, and employ them to bring those materials back.
Which implied a significant amount of material worthy of bringing back, not just for use in fuel cells on the Moon.
And again, asteroids (which are known to contain significant or otherwise amounts of platinum) are not worthwhile due to some supposed zero-G mining barrier - while supposed asteroidal material from impacts (most of the later missions - AS 14, AS 15, and AS17 visited impact sites including the Imbrium region, not including the Luna missions of course) have not been detected despite hundreds of kilograms of samples - some percentage of which would have to be or contain asteroidal material.
Then again, Mars isn't much better (hey I might as well be honest):
Surface/Crustal Composition (% by weight) -
(Arranged by periodic order)
Al: 2 - 7% Ti: 0.5 - 2% Cu: <0.5% Sr: <0.02%
Si: 15 - 30% V: <3% Zn: <0.1% Y: <0.02%
P: <10% Cr: <5% Ga: <0.03% Zr: <0.02%
S: 0 - 6% Mn: <7% As: <0.02% Nb: <0.025%
Cl: 0 - 3% Fe: 14% ± 2% Se: <0.015% Mo: <0.05%
K: 0 - 2% Co: < 7% Br: <0.015% Tc - U: <2%
Ca: 3 - 8% Ni: < 5% Rb: <0.01%
But it is a more even mixture, and Martian soil (not rocks) do contain more significant amounts of Nickel, and Chromium, among other things than lunar soil (and by association the rocks the majority of that regolith came from).
Now admitedly, Pt isn't easy to detect via GCMS (the above is Viking-era), but if there were amounts in enough quanities to make it worthwhile on Mars (via MO or ME) or on the Moon (again - I haven't looked at Clementine data) it would have shown up via GRS.
As to MD, again, I would like to see the basis for these opinions from other - and I'm assuming your a qualified engineer (I don't know of coure) - qualified engineers who have given these two scenarios a through examination.
Ok, now to Platinum. I'll guess my post mentioning this was missing some bits (if not just missing), so:
There are no significant sources of plantinum on the Moon - excepting perhaps surviving in asteroidal material. Neither the Apollo nor Luna samples had detectable amounts of platinum. So, what I was saying (before it disappeared) is, other than Al, Si, O; H2O, Fe, and Ti (in some spots); and He3 - what does the moon offer?
By the way, I have not seen the Clementine data - I have it - just not looked at it yet (and reading it would be an adventure). Is there evidence for significant amounts of Pt there?
Ti alone I can see a use for, but it's still rather readily available here.
It is the abscence of the platinum and other asteroidal materials that indicate concentrated resources. The impacts have occured, but there does not appear to be any debris. This could really only have happened if the impacts where soft and the objects remained intact.
Why did apollo not find them, well it was not looking and apollo was such a cursory look at the Moon that it was the equivalent of Columbus landing in the Americas run up the beach pick a leaf and get back aboard and sail away. But even from this we have learnt a lot and we can learn a lot more, but we have to go back.
Apollo was not looking for Platinum (which assumes that absolutely none of the rocks were asteroidal fragments, including samples from House Rock [AS15] which was an asteroid fragment) so obviously it exists in places other than Apollo was looking?
So this is the rationale for going back?
There is more than just using regolith as a mass manufacturer of solar panels, but I used it show what the true lifeblood of any space mission is that of energy. Still ignoring He3 (which I can do easily) and the KREEP natural radioactives, there is still the matter of the very mineral rich asteroids that have collided with the moon over the millenia and high concentrations of Iron,Nickel,Cobalt and of course PGMs they consisted of. We are interested in the PGMs for here on Earth and this leaves the millions of tonnes of Iron,Nickel,Cobalt as waste. And usable for anything so wanted at a lunar base.
We will also go to the moon so that we can access its abundant oxygen bound up in the regolith. This fuel would also be a means to allow us further access to space and on to Mars.
Granted, there is asteroidal material on the Moon. When someone shows me the evidence of easily identifiable, high concentrations of that material, in easily accesible form, I'll jump for joy.
I've poured over the Apollo results, and I don't see evidence for high concentrations of Cobalt or Nickel:
(From the maria of AS11) -
http://img219.echo.cx/img219/417/lunare … nts4xr.gif
(From from the "highlands" of AS17 - REEs in second image) -
http://img219.echo.cx/img219/4562/lunar … ts27xm.gif
http://img219.echo.cx/img219/614/lunare … ts39lg.gif
For AS17, only the rock samples, not the soil (AS 11 includes the soil samples).
Although I would agree the fuel-production would be worthwhile, assuming the cost is low enough to justify it being done via Lunar material rather than straight from Earth.
First off, two shorties:
1: The main economic justification for a trip to the Moon is the Platinum thats in the rocks. Not the Helium-3, not the solar farms for Earthly transmission, but the Platinum. We need platinum to make efficent fuel cells, its just about the least rare metal that reacts with Hydrogen to catalyze the reaction. Since there isn't probobly enough of it on Earth to sustain a Hydrogen economy, we need more. The Moon is the easiest, closest, soonest source. Since the actual mass of Pt needed won't be that large, we could ferry those sizes of materials to/from Luna with today's technology. You are being quite obtuse by insisting that the Moon is worthless until Fusion power is available, Explorer.
2: MarsDirect, in its present form even with all scientific payload deleted, I think is still too light to be safe. Zubrin went too far in whittling down the vehicle sizes and mass margins to get it all to fit in a single shot of Ares. MarsDirect cannot be salvaged since Ares is the biggest practical SDV, unless MarsDirect employs a heavy nuclear upper stage engine. Since Zubrin is not stupid, I think that he secretly knows that this would be nessesarry, and is trying pass off his all-chemical plan to overoptimistic MarSoc-type folks so they will call their congressmen, and irrevokably kick off MarsDirect. Zubrin is, after all, a nuclear engineer by trade.
NASA DRM is, unlike MarsDirect, big enough to have safe mass margins. Thats why, mainly... There isn't any technology needed for DRM any more then MarsDirect, since nuclear rocket engines aren't new tech, both we and the Russians had ones of all sizes back in the 1960's. DRM however, unlike MarsDirect, would use only a small RL-10/60 class engine, instead of a huge SSME class one.
NASA DRM also employs a more reasonably sized launch vehicle, so there is no risk that SDV will be unable to meet the "Ares class" performance due to unforseen weight gain or performance pentalty. The smaller launch vehicle will also not need to use $200M worth of SSMEs, and instead only $30-40M worth of RS-68 engines.
DRM, unlike MarsDirect, also has one vitally important thing... a future. MarsDirect cannot be modified nor evolve, it is the end of the line. DRM on the other hand, could transition to an almost-fully reuseable system by employing a reuseable MAV and returning the ERV to LEO and use it as a manned cycler.
DRM also has room for six astronauts standard and many extra tonnes of scientific gear with the MAV payload, which will permit us to get alot more done then MarsDirect ever would per-mission. DRM's HAB, minus the laboratory space, could even house eight astronauts for a future Mars base.
DRM makes sense... MarsDirect doesn't.
First GCN, thanks for noticing the thread was busted and starting again.
Ok, now to Platinum. I'll guess my post mentioning this was missing some bits (if not just missing), so:
There are no significant sources of plantinum on the Moon - excepting perhaps surviving in asteroidal material. Neither the Apollo nor Luna samples had detectable amounts of platinum. So, what I was saying (before it disappeared) is, other than Al, Si, O; H2O, Fe, and Ti (in some spots); and He3 - what does the moon offer?
By the way, I have not seen the Clementine data - I have it - just not looked at it yet (and reading it would be an adventure). Is there evidence for significant amounts of Pt there?
Ti alone I can see a use for, but it's still rather readily available here.
Your correct, Nuclear engines aren't new tech. They've just never been used in space - just the usual test runs of the 60's (I know there have been later tests, I just don't have the material handy). There are probably going to be tests upon tests to man-rate them, and that's (probably) going to cause massive delays.
MD will do one thing well, it will get us there. Yes, up to a point it becomes useless - and by that time I would expect that we have a better space infrastructure (LEO, or if necessary, LLO direct to Mars). But I see reasons to maintain that MD can serve us well for at least 10 missions (or 20 years) if not longer, making it not only cheap enough to go to Mars, but making it more likely to happen.
Actually GCN, two things that would remove my objection (that I may have missed?) is this: what is the total cost projection of the DRM? Nothing lunar or support - just the DRM.
And would it be usuable by 2021 and no later?
It is not just the lower gravity of the Moon that makes it the best place to create industrial capacity but the capability to have power generated. The Moon with peaks that are almost permanently in sunlight are a solar power paradise. It is power and especially electrical that has made our civilisation what it is and the Moon has in abundance all that is needed to easily make cheap solar panels that are very "hard" when it comes to radiation. There are Science projects that have it planned for automated Rovers to make lines of these panels solely from lunar soils. Its all that abundant SiO2.
Another advantage is that the Moon is sprinkled with Iron not much except in certain concentrated areas but this allows us to build what scientists call smart bricks. If we collect Lunar regolith and crush it into a mold then heat it. The mold will release oxygen and any other free gases. leaving us with a structural component and if passed through a powerful magnetic source the brick becomes polarised. This allows us to create a very good structural component which helps to right itself and is easily picked up by a robot arm.
Still it is when we go to find the PGMs that the Moon will either pay for itself or at the minimum to defray costs the same with the use of Helium 3.
I don't mean to pick on your posts Grypd, but it was conviently placed.
Understand, I would very much like to go to the Moon as a personal desire, but I realise it's worthless in many of the materials necessary for anything but building solar panels, buildings (for what purpose besides as research stations?) and He3 - which we don't need right now - and may never need.
I would love to see a series of scientific missions to the far-side (oh would I - why is it apparently different that the near side sites? are there clues in the mineralogy that explain why it's appearance is different? what was the evolutionary history of the far-side? I could go on and on).
But I suppose that will be money well spent somehow, and I retire from offering information that furthers clarifies objections to going to the Moon.
Commodore, Mars Direct entails that all the return fuel is made, and the ERV checked, before the crewed hab is launched. So that could never happen. Ofcourse, any number of things could go wrong, but the same could be said of NASA's DRM plan.
Including a catastrophic reactor failure, which is not a problem using mainly tried and true technologies, as MD would.
Mars Direct consists of the bare minumum of hardware you could get away with, while keeping the crew safe. So if you wanted something with more redundancy, you would have to spend a lot more, but you end up with diminishing returns. Also, by adding redundancy you may also inherently increase risk (by relying on extra docking procedures, etc.). Such is the case with the Design Reference Mission, IMO.
Exactly and dead on Michael!
I might add that DRM relies on technologies that may never be developed due to the costs anyway (as very very similar plans have been deemed too expensive before).
Question does the C(rew) D(ecent) V(ehicle), once it is time to go and leave mars will it act as a single stage to orbit or is there another lander that is used to do that function or is it the E(arth) R(eturn) V(ehicle) that is destine for this role?
I am looking at how many launches and how much is waste for the designs.
If such a scenario could be successfully done with this architecture (CDV and ERV) then the ERV would be the return vehicle.
The CDV would be a stay-behind vehicle, designed to be suitable for use later (as the basis for a research settlement structure).
This demonstrates when these two companies cooperate instead of compete they have no intention of keeping cost down. The article claims the joint venture will result in an unspecified number of layoffs, but I don't believe for a minute it will reduce launch cost. Someone has to challenge this under anti-trust laws.
That's typical in a merger - costs go up (even though the reasoning for the merger is to make them go down - for the company - not its customers!).
I wonder if an anti-trust suit would work, and who would file it (as in another aerospace company trying to compete?)?
Anyone have any information along those lines?
Thanks
What I find most interesting about the whole issue is who should say what monies are spent by Nasa on what projects.Take for instance this one http://space.com/missionlaunches/050502 … arch.html] Search on Again for Mars Polar Lander
While it might be of interest to find out what happened to it 6 years ago to what benifit would we gain from doing so and at what cost should we do this for?
Nothing is really said about this question and the only thing to come from it is a new imaging technique.
Then the flip side of the coin from congress is that NASAs]http://space.com/spacenews/businessmonday_050502.html]NASA's Exploration Focus Blamed for Earth Science Cuts and while the desision making process is flawed it does seem to be getting congress in line to fund nasa correctly.
"We need to stop, examine what's happening, and make sure that the fiscal 2006 budget for NASA - whatever its top-level number - includes adequate funding to keep Earth science moving forward for the foreseeable future."
But where is there support when it is about getting to the lowest budget possible and not about the science?
Oh yes, the guy whose in charge of trying to find MPL.
There's probably enough money in that for another year of Voyager right there! (I don't really know that for sure though, but the point is well taken SpaceNut.)
For some the Earth Science missions, I wonder if maybe the NOAA should be in charge of that (with a seperate budget) and leave the launching to the ESA, Russia or NASA.
But I love this quote:
"You talk about the handoff," Boehlert said. "I'm enough of a track man to know it takes two hands to hand off. One hand is extending to hand off, but there has to be a recipient with a plan and a program and the funding behind the program and we don't see that."
Exactly.
Not true! The Moon offers much quicker and easier payoff then a mega giant self-replicating AI robotic zero-G asteroid mine... and would give us the same minerals.
For clarification, RMC/P units are not mega giant or AI. They're simple, small, analogue solid-state robots (like those that have been/are being developed at Los Alamos) which have the capability of creating copies of themselves, and creating materials processing units (the M-/P in RMC/P) which are also robotic.
Here is a list of CEV references:
http://space.com/businesstechnology/tec … 209.html]A Spiral Stairway to the Moon and Beyondhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crew_Exploration_Vehicle] Crew Exploration Vehicle
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia.http://aviationnow.ecnext.com/free-scri … =02215top] Aviation Week & Space Technology a Trial By Fire
Checkout the cev central for more links
Thank you SpaceNut... that's what is needed to fine tune any plan like this - information.
1st, using the MarsDirect single-HLLV plan is unworkable. Zubrin's plan is simply not practical... it is an interesting thought experiment in ways to absolutely minimize the payload sent from Earth, but he went too far in trying to cut corners so that MD would fit on a single shot of a Shuttle-derived all-chemical vehicle. Furthermore, MD would require the largest and most difficult varient of SDV nuclear or not, which would be expensive.
I believe the last MD Plan which is what I'm referencing was for two launches - one for the ERV (so it can generate the fuel and consumables - and we know it's done that before sending anyone) and then the CDV. This is what I advocate as well. Nuclear propulsion is not necessary at this stage at all. I do note that the CDV as worked up by Zubrin may not cut it however.
MarsDirect has one much more fundimental problem however, in that it has no hope of doing anything more then just barely getting four people there and back.
GCN, that comment alone tells me you may want to see the latest version(s) of Mars Direct, and then I could respond with some better confidence. I would love to see a single lift-plan, but Zubrin and I (and everyone else) knows that impossible. Hence I placed at least two launches - not one - might take three (which is a bummer).
Dook, the President is not going to listen. The aerospace industry is in control on this issue - as are congressmen and women who have pork (ISS and Shuttle contracts) on the fire.
Going behind the President's back is common in Washington anyway... it's the way things get done.
...the resources inherent in asterodial material cannot be ignored (nor the threat of impact - which having the technology to manipulate them can do no harm to stopping).
I would love to see a permanent presence on the Moon - for radio and optical astronomy being paramount reasons to go. But a base there will kill any chance of going to Mars and it will be worse than Apollo - it will never be completed and it will kill NASA.
What I really want to see Grypd for the Lunnies is this: give a plan that builds a resource infrastructure and adds to going to Mars as opposed to subtracting from it. That's one thing I've never seen - and I wonder if that's because there is no meat on "them bones". There is no reason for going to the Moon besides science or prestige - and we've seen where that takes us before (Apollo).
My, plenty of things here...
First off, I know perfectly well what I am talking about with concern to MarsDirect. I've even read the various presentations and documents about it, the fact that you have to enumerate how you would send the ERV and the HAB (Oops, sorry, the "CDV." You aren't even using the same terminology.) seperatly clearly illustrates how you aren't exactly an expert on the topic.
I am saying that even with the whole payload of the largest all-chemical Shuttle-derived launch vehicle called for by MarsDirect dedicated to the ERV or HAB seperatly, it still isn't enough. If the biggest chemical SDV can't do the job, and a new mega-HLLV is out of the question, then you would therefore have to use a heavy nuclear engine... Just like Zubrin details in his MarsDirect "upgrade options" following the meat of the "Reno" presentation.
NASA's DRM instead would split the mission into many more pieces, which gives you practical payload masses - no more cutting off the toothbrush handles - without needing an expensive mega-HLLV. Three rather then two payloads would be sent to Mars: the roomy fully-fueled ERV into Mars orbit, the MAV (acent vehicle) and surface gear to the Martian surface, and then a much bigger HAB/lab module to the surface with the crew. Each payload would be placed into LEO and mated to a TMI boost stage powerd by small RL-10 class nuclear engines.
Next, you seem to be under this odd impression that NASA could somehow be this rouge agency and do what its cheif executive told them not to do... The Vice President, and hence the President himself by extension, is the actual head of NASA. Not the NASA administrator... he is merely a manager, and does not set policy. There is a good reason why the NASA admin is nominated by the President.
I can tell you where there are plenty of asteroids, big ones, much closer to us then the NEAs... lots of gravity for easy mining, loose dirt for radiation shielding, and perhaps even a ready supply of water... You know all those round thingies on the Moon? How do you suppose they got there? ...From asteroids impacting the Moon. And they are still there, perfectly preserved in the vacuum, hidden by dust.
"But a base there will kill any chance of going to Mars and it will be worse than Apollo - it will never be completed and it will kill NASA."
Says you. I say that it can be done, and both can be done... just not simultainiously. Why do you think it will never be finished, and would kill NASA? In fact, I sure hope that its never finished, as it should be an open-ended project that is eventually handed off to large degree to businesses for mining.
"a plan that builds a resource infrastructure and adds to going to Mars as opposed to subtracting from it."
There isn't any such thing, and you shouldn't expect it either. Setting up shop on the Moon and visiting Mars are such different tasks that neither plan will have much practical commonality.
"There is no reason for going to the Moon besides science or prestige"
Not true! The Moon offers much quicker and easier payoff then a mega giant self-replicating AI robotic zero-G asteroid mine... and would give us the same minerals. You can't support NEA mining and summerly dismiss Lunar mining, since the same minerals are available in either place.
First of all, it's noted as a C(rew) D(ecent) V(ehicle), kinda like the C(rew) E(xploration) V(ehicle). It's called a HAB-Unit by Zubrin as it's for habitation. I know plenty about the Case For Mars meetings, as I was there through IV. I'm probably not familiar with the Reno options, as I was no longer able to pay close attention (as in not enough free time) until this year. But they are "options", which is interesting.
I thought you were referring a true MD approach, which was my error as well.
More information please GCN on this? I believe I do know what your referring to, but it seems to be later than my most recent planning information from Zubrin (who still wants to go as cheaply but safely as possible - two or three launches maximum). Regardless however, the Habs (which are crewed decent vehicles yes?) can be used to form a base - is this not correct? Happily, I already know it's correct, as that is what I was referring to in my reply - MD or MSD gives us the option of a sustained presence on Mars.
Considering that I don't have information on Reno, consider the following as potentially in error.
My problem with nuclear propulsion is it's another delay and more costs - although with no Shuttle or ISS consuming resources that would probably not be a problem. Sure it's gets us there faster and at a sustainable G (I assume), meaning less consumables etc. But how much is it going to cost, and when will it be developed?
NASA has had an obsession with nuclear-propulsion since it was formed, so I'm not entirely confident about that option for good reason, but the orbiting-ERV/MAV-docking option requires another level of complexity and therefore another option for failure - another problem.
And yes, you have to enumerate before you go. You don't just build a bunch of launch and habitation vehicles and then expect to throw together a mission. That's why it's called a plan. And I did invite commentary and correction, plus more information - so please start pointing to that information GCN.
Webb was a manager, yes that is true of all NASA Admins. But a manager goes to the head of the operation and states what he/she needs to get the job done. That's hasn't been the case since Paine, and I think Griffin gets that. Congress grants the monies for those policies and gets what it wants - it does not work any other way. They want Hubble saved - Griffin is now basically saying "Hubble gets saved". If they up and want Voyager to be listened to - listening continues. Regardless of what the Prez or VP want, Congress is in control.
As far as business going to the Moon, tell me one example of where business has exploited space besides for telecommunications or imaging of the Earth for weather or pleasure? (I'll believe in a new private man-rated spacecraft when I see it as well.) That's been a lark since the 1970's - business will get involved yada yada. That assumes something out of the control of NASA and assumes the U.S. will spend $35 billion or more to get a base up (and nothing else) - and then assumes some business will be interested in that free base (cause they won't pay for it). That's untenable for long-range planning.
I've explained the Lunar mineralology situation well enough. Actually the high levels of TiO2 and MgO2 are from asteroidal material on the Moon - not the Moon itself, but I'm sure we can use three month testing missions for Mars to look at these lunar impactors, no base required! And a robotic mission to pinpoint them all - no base required! And GCN, I'll be curious for all the facts (again), on these other asteroids, assuming I don't already have that information.
I will admit the NEAs aren't well understood enough mineralologically to make them a definite - that's why it's last in my post. That's why I put a 10 year period for studying not only them, but the options for using them, without spending billions to find out we're wrong.
Payback comes in the form of a return not just some data on the age or mineral composition of the moon but rather can we make the steps from there for infrastructure and colonization of beyound.
Timeframe, well we have had nearly two years of no flights to which we have paid for the shuttle army to put out no flights at all. A few months after the accident there was much discusion as to what to replace the shuttle with. The flyoff as it stands now is just a paper rocket with not even a complete flight test of hardware fully intergrated to actually a full size testing until 2012 with manned flight in 2014. All to get to LEO or spiral 1.
Got ya... I thought that was what you meant, but wasn't sure.
Let me think on that for a moment, as I'm guessing you mean the delay between starting and first flights (to Mars much less anywhere else).
Note about the opposition comments. Why I didn't remember 2018 escapes me - I've been planning for it since last year. The first ERV launch could probably not go until 2021 as 2018 is really pushing it (moreso than 2019 which is not an opposition... duh).
There are ways that we could get rid of the ISS without actually abandoning our agreement. We could buy out the rest of our responsibility. Pay Russia to finish the ISS with their own launch systems and since they can do it cheaper, it costs us less. Plus this will mean we can retire the shuttle, more savings.
The first sentence makes sense, the second sentence is impossible for the Russians (not enough lift capacity). Grypd points that out well.
The moon is a waste and a distraction promoted by the old Apollo era astronauts who have now made it into congress.
Sure there are things we can do on the moon, there are things we can do everywhere but what is the real prize? Mars is. You think the public is going to get all goo goo over us returning to the moon? The interest will last about ten minutes. What is an astronaut going to say "One small step for man, one giant leap backwards for humanity!"
Ok, now wait a minute. It's fine to point out a fact, but what I want to see is the science behind that fact Dook and Grypd - against and for. Point of interest...
If it is too promote space infrastructure and to allow us more access to space then not going to the Moon is stupid. If it is to do eventual colonisation and of man spreading to new worlds then we need the Moon again. If it is to provide our homeworld materials and energy to improve life here and to allow our civilisation to continue we go to the Moon.
Does anyone realise what the Moon is made of? Mainly SiO2 and AlO2 (some areas are high in FeO, various isotopes). What are we going to do with Silicon? Computer chip boards and solar panels? For what? It's rich in Aluminum as well to be sure, but we need Titanium (it's no more than 4% by volume from various sites - over that in a couple of places - and often less than 1%) and Magnesium (about the same as Iron, no more than 11% and only in a couple of locations) among other things. Are these concentrations higher where there might be water (more likely just bound hydrogen which will need to be extracted and fast)? What is the Moon good for besides vacation spots is my question.
I could agree with the assertion we need resource utilization from the Moon, but it's another gravity well, it's not as rich as everyone seems to think, and the resources for maintaining a base or manufacturing colony are not apparent. NEAs are light (low escape but the delta-vees do need worked out), can be moved about, and brought to LEO or LLO (yes, Lunar orbit - we can have a better lunar infrastructure using NEA material as well as Lunar material) for processing, and materials can be used to build a space elevator - giving us greater access to the Moon, Mars, NEAs, and everywhere else.
As far as going to the stars - we'll still need NEAs by the way - because the best technologies for interstellar travel all require a space infrastructure (build a Maser-pushed-Lightsail thousands of km in diameter on earth?) - even though we won't be doing anything IS for decades to come. Starting within 15 years or so will give us the experience for Mars, the Moon, and even make for practical developments on Earth regardless of it's future benefits.
The problem with the plans are timeframe, cost and how many flights for payback.
Payback? In the US Space program? I'll need more information on what you mean before I can comment SpaceNut.
1st, using the MarsDirect single-HLLV plan is unworkable. Zubrin's plan is simply not practical... it is an interesting thought experiment in ways to absolutely minimize the payload sent from Earth, but he went too far in trying to cut corners so that MD would fit on a single shot of a Shuttle-derived all-chemical vehicle. Furthermore, MD would require the largest and most difficult varient of SDV nuclear or not, which would be expensive.
I believe the last MD Plan which is what I'm referencing was for two launches - one for the ERV (so it can generate the fuel and consumables - and we know it's done that before sending anyone) and then the CDV. This is what I advocate as well. Nuclear propulsion is not necessary at this stage at all. I do note that the CDV as worked up by Zubrin may not cut it however.
MarsDirect has one much more fundimental problem however, in that it has no hope of doing anything more then just barely getting four people there and back.
GCN, that comment alone tells me you may want to see the latest version(s) of Mars Direct, and then I could respond with some better confidence. I would love to see a single lift-plan, but Zubrin and I (and everyone else) knows that impossible. Hence I placed at least two launches - not one - might take three (which is a bummer).
Sounds like Mars Direct. While I may agree with some of your changes I do not agree with the way you wish to implement these changes. Having the NASA Administrator go behind the Presidents back to congress would be a huge mistake and political suicide. The Administrator should bring the ideas to the President, convince him and his science advisor, then allow the President to announce the new plan to the people.
Dook, the President is not going to listen. The aerospace industry is in control on this issue - as are congressmen and women who have pork (ISS and Shuttle contracts) on the fire.
The way to do this however is simple and the late great James Webb showed the way. He stood up to Congress, said this is what we need to do what you want us to do, and he got it. We and NASA need to make sure we can placate the individual members of Congress who count - by making sure a test gets done here, or an assembly plant gets done there.
Going behind the President's back is common in Washington anyway... it's the way things get done.
The best way to sell this to the public is to say that we can achieve it within NASA's current budget, no new taxes and no robbing from other programs. To do it we would have to cut the space shuttle and ISS though.
I believe that's what I said.
Space based manufacturing infrastructure? Why would we need that? I am definately against it. I support science efforts in space but not the settlement of space simply to fulfill science fiction readers fantasy.
You cannot sell the space program on just science, exploration, or even "personal opportunity" alone. We don't really need a space-based infrastructure just yet, but we will, and the resources inherent in asterodial material cannot be ignored (nor the threat of impact - which having the technology to manipulate them can do no harm to stopping).
Thinking of the technology benefits (and the employment opportunities therein) here on Earth is not a sci-fi reader's fantasy - it's just common sense.
Grypd, I'll take all these on at once...
1) To summarily get rid of the ISS is unfortunatly politically impossible even to stop construction is again almost impossible. The ISS was billed as a worlds space station to get other countries especially Russia on board to summarilly abandon its construction with the modules other countries have built sitting in hangers would not go well for international space relations.
2) You seem to be very anti lunar and this would alienate a degree of the space advocates and this includes your congress. Many people are bitter that the apollo program seemed to stop before the dreams of lunar bases and a foothold on Earths companion happened.
Still a good heavy with a medium launcher would benefit the space program greatly. Especially if clean sheet but would the rather nasty buisness of political slash and cut allow it at the expense of all those current shuttle army and launchers jobs.
Dook provides a reply that answers the ISS problem, and it's a good way out of a bad situation.
I'm not anti-Lunar, I'm anti-self-interest at the expense of the space program. I place test runs on the Moon not as a bone to Lunar enthusiasts (although that occurred to me), but for what they're good for - testing. The Lunar missions however (and you should have seen my earlier draft concerning the Moon) can be done later. Unless Lunar people are gung-ho because they think they're going to have a chance to go themselves, this shouldn't be a major concern.
I would love to see a permanent presence on the Moon - for radio and optical astronomy being paramount reasons to go. But a base there will kill any chance of going to Mars and it will be worse than Apollo - it will never be completed and it will kill NASA.
What I really want to see Grypd for the Lunnies is this: give a plan that builds a resource infrastructure and adds to going to Mars as opposed to subtracting from it. That's one thing I've never seen - and I wonder if that's because there is no meat on "them bones". There is no reason for going to the Moon besides science or prestige - and we've seen where that takes us before (Apollo).
I'm not sure a new set of lift vehicles would kill any jobs. It might even create more in the aerospace industry itself - but cost many in for the aerospace group who run the Shuttle now (forget the company's name). More launches would require more people as well - and that's the key to a new vehicle set.
Next... part two!
The main reason to go back to the moon is that the CEV must be testing with missions close to earth so we can help if required.
That's entirely true. However...
Why set up a totally different infrastructure for the Moon? Bases, specialised equipment, etc.
At best we could test the equipment for a Mars mission on the Moon with short 3 month missions to shake out the bugs. Everything else can be done here (and in some case is being done here) - otherwise the Moon is a waste of time for going to Mars.
I'll be posting something that says that and explains it better shortly.
Later... after about 10 good missions to Mars (and perhaps the start of a colony)... we can putz around on the Moon again. But colonial structures there will be expensive and wasteful.
Btw... for those worried about China, Iran, India, Japan, or Europe - I want to see any of them get out of LEO (or to LEO) before I worry about that - which won't be for several decades at least.
Try this site its called sandcastle
http://www.sandcastlevi.com/space/spa-p … Sandcastle V.I
Each probe is listed and at the bottom is a photo gallery
Oh, by the way welcome to new mars Visionary Explorer
and if you think your OT you should see some of the items I post.
Thanks Grypd for the welcome and info!
I usually catch myself when going OT - especially the 4 page OT posts I'm usually wont to do.
A hearty welcome to New Mars, by the way, Visionary Explorer.
Your quote:-One caveat - Pluto/Kuiper. So many people ask me about Pluto (especially about pictures) that this mission has to go forward for public relations if nothing else.
You're lucky. Most of the people I know have barely heard of Pluto. Most of them wouldn't know what the Voyagers were, have no idea of what the Voyagers achieved, and haven't the slightest inkling that any mission to Pluto has even been discussed. The Kuiper Belt could be something to hold your trousers up, as far as they're concerned. :bars:
Do the primary missions with no extensions unless the chance of replication (like with Voyager) is small, and move it on going to Mars, is pretty much where I stand.
Your position makes good sense to me. :up:
Hi Shaun! I'm glad to be here.
Kuiper Belt... trousers... oy!
It's odd, but a lot of younger people (way younger than me at 35) ask me about Pluto all the time. Mainly those not yet in secondary school, so that might be why I get those questions - that and they know I have like a terrabit of space "stuff" stored away in stacks of CD-R's - but unhappily for them none of it is from Pluto.
Let's see if I can make some more sense shortly.
I like Griffin more and more.
These roadmaps are useless. More money that could be going to the VSE (Bush's or modified) wasted on silly little planning sessions that have to be redone every month (it seems).
Where do I stand? Good question.
First, very simple choices can be made in relation to going to Mars (VSE or no VSE) based on what is being done right now. Forget for the moment the Moon (hard as that may be).
What is the value of what we've already spent money on in robotics? Well, MESSENGER was absolutely worthless to the VSE - but it's on it's way now so it's too late. Deep Impact? Deep why?! Dawn? Say goodnight. Same for every mission not currently slated to the Moon, Mars, or studying the Earth and/or Sun radiation environment.
One caveat - Pluto/Kuiper. So many people ask me about Pluto (especially about pictures) that this mission has to go forward for public relations if nothing else. Think about the people who know of your interest in the space program and if they've asked you the same.
But solar-studies probes like Ulysses, etc. are valuable for understanding and monitoring the radiation environment - which is of paramount importance to piloted exploration to Mars, or anywhere for that matter. These should actually be high-priority keepers (even over the Voyagers, Hubble, or Cassini).
What about what some have mentioned as being in the future? See above (and yes - that includes the JWST, and even JIMO - which is simply a science project gone mad despite the nuclear propulsion argument).
Robotic science probes not used for human colonisation on Mars and space-travel research are alright, but secondary right now. The only caveat to this would be P/KE as before, and the NEA's, as those missions can be done quickly and cheaply.
Do the primary missions with no extensions unless the chance of replication (like with Voyager) is small, and move it on going to Mars, is pretty much where I stand.